Intrinsic value of Blue Capital Reinsurance Holdings - BCRH

Previous Close

$11.55

  Intrinsic Value

$7.52

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-35%

Previous close

$11.55

 
Intrinsic value

$7.52

 
Up/down potential

-35%

 
Rating

sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as BCRH.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BCRH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of Blue Capital Reinsurance Holdings (BCRH) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.16
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  0
  69
  106
  159
  231
  325
  447
  601
  788
  1,015
  1,282
  1,591
  1,946
  2,345
  2,790
  3,281
  3,816
  4,396
  5,019
  5,684
  6,391
  7,138
  7,924
  8,750
  9,614
  10,516
  11,457
  12,437
  13,457
  14,517
  15,619
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  30
  47
  70
  102
  144
  198
  265
  349
  448
  566
  703
  860
  1,037
  1,233
  1,450
  1,687
  1,943
  2,218
  2,513
  2,825
  3,155
  3,503
  3,867
  4,249
  4,648
  5,064
  5,497
  5,948
  6,417
  6,904
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  28
  30
  47
  70
  102
  144
  198
  265
  349
  448
  566
  703
  860
  1,037
  1,233
  1,450
  1,687
  1,943
  2,218
  2,513
  2,825
  3,155
  3,503
  3,867
  4,249
  4,648
  5,064
  5,497
  5,948
  6,417
  6,904
Operating income, $m
  14
  38
  59
  89
  129
  182
  250
  335
  440
  566
  715
  888
  1,086
  1,309
  1,557
  1,831
  2,130
  2,453
  2,801
  3,172
  3,566
  3,983
  4,422
  4,882
  5,364
  5,868
  6,393
  6,940
  7,509
  8,101
  8,715
EBITDA, $m
  14
  38
  59
  89
  129
  182
  250
  335
  440
  566
  715
  888
  1,086
  1,309
  1,557
  1,831
  2,130
  2,453
  2,801
  3,172
  3,566
  3,983
  4,422
  4,882
  5,364
  5,868
  6,393
  6,940
  7,509
  8,101
  8,715
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  10
  13
  17
  22
  28
  34
  41
  49
  58
  67
  78
  89
  101
  113
  127
  141
  155
  171
  187
  204
  221
  239
  258
Earnings before tax, $m
  14
  38
  59
  88
  127
  178
  245
  328
  430
  553
  698
  866
  1,058
  1,275
  1,516
  1,782
  2,072
  2,386
  2,723
  3,083
  3,466
  3,870
  4,295
  4,742
  5,209
  5,697
  6,206
  6,736
  7,288
  7,861
  8,457
Tax expense, $m
  0
  10
  16
  24
  34
  48
  66
  89
  116
  149
  188
  234
  286
  344
  409
  481
  559
  644
  735
  832
  936
  1,045
  1,160
  1,280
  1,406
  1,538
  1,676
  1,819
  1,968
  2,123
  2,283
Net income, $m
  14
  28
  43
  64
  92
  130
  179
  239
  314
  404
  509
  632
  772
  930
  1,107
  1,301
  1,512
  1,742
  1,988
  2,251
  2,530
  2,825
  3,136
  3,462
  3,803
  4,159
  4,531
  4,918
  5,320
  5,739
  6,174

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  205
  328
  506
  757
  1,098
  1,550
  2,130
  2,860
  3,755
  4,831
  6,103
  7,578
  9,265
  11,167
  13,287
  15,623
  18,173
  20,934
  23,901
  27,069
  30,433
  33,990
  37,735
  41,666
  45,780
  50,077
  54,559
  59,225
  64,081
  69,129
  74,377
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  205
  328
  506
  757
  1,098
  1,550
  2,130
  2,860
  3,755
  4,831
  6,103
  7,578
  9,265
  11,167
  13,287
  15,623
  18,173
  20,934
  23,901
  27,069
  30,433
  33,990
  37,735
  41,666
  45,780
  50,077
  54,559
  59,225
  64,081
  69,129
  74,377
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.210
  0.209
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  0
  13
  32
  59
  96
  144
  206
  284
  380
  495
  631
  789
  969
  1,173
  1,400
  1,650
  1,923
  2,218
  2,535
  2,874
  3,234
  3,615
  4,016
  4,436
  4,876
  5,336
  5,816
  6,315
  6,835
  7,375
  7,936
Total liabilities, $m
  21
  35
  54
  81
  118
  166
  228
  306
  402
  517
  653
  811
  991
  1,195
  1,422
  1,672
  1,945
  2,240
  2,557
  2,896
  3,256
  3,637
  4,038
  4,458
  4,898
  5,358
  5,838
  6,337
  6,857
  7,397
  7,958
Total equity, $m
  183
  293
  452
  676
  981
  1,384
  1,902
  2,554
  3,353
  4,314
  5,450
  6,767
  8,273
  9,972
  11,865
  13,951
  16,229
  18,694
  21,343
  24,172
  27,177
  30,353
  33,697
  37,207
  40,882
  44,719
  48,721
  52,888
  57,224
  61,732
  66,418
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  204
  328
  506
  757
  1,099
  1,550
  2,130
  2,860
  3,755
  4,831
  6,103
  7,578
  9,264
  11,167
  13,287
  15,623
  18,174
  20,934
  23,900
  27,068
  30,433
  33,990
  37,735
  41,665
  45,780
  50,077
  54,559
  59,225
  64,081
  69,129
  74,376
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.040
  0.070
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893
  0.893

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  14
  28
  43
  64
  92
  130
  179
  239
  314
  404
  509
  632
  772
  930
  1,107
  1,301
  1,512
  1,742
  1,988
  2,251
  2,530
  2,825
  3,136
  3,462
  3,803
  4,159
  4,531
  4,918
  5,320
  5,739
  6,174
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  46
  28
  43
  64
  92
  130
  179
  239
  314
  404
  509
  632
  772
  930
  1,107
  1,301
  1,512
  1,742
  1,988
  2,251
  2,530
  2,825
  3,136
  3,462
  3,803
  4,159
  4,531
  4,918
  5,320
  5,739
  6,174
Change in working capital, $m
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  30
  28
  43
  64
  92
  130
  179
  239
  314
  404
  509
  632
  772
  930
  1,107
  1,301
  1,512
  1,742
  1,988
  2,251
  2,530
  2,825
  3,136
  3,462
  3,803
  4,159
  4,531
  4,918
  5,320
  5,739
  6,174
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  30
  28
  43
  64
  92
  130
  179
  239
  314
  404
  509
  632
  772
  930
  1,107
  1,301
  1,512
  1,742
  1,988
  2,251
  2,530
  2,825
  3,136
  3,462
  3,803
  4,159
  4,531
  4,918
  5,320
  5,739
  6,174
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -13
  13
  19
  27
  37
  48
  62
  78
  96
  115
  136
  158
  180
  204
  227
  250
  273
  295
  317
  339
  360
  381
  401
  421
  440
  460
  479
  499
  520
  540
  561
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  82
  116
  160
  212
  273
  340
  412
  485
  558
  626
  685
  734
  768
  786
  786
  765
  724
  662
  578
  475
  351
  209
  48
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -13
  95
  135
  187
  249
  321
  402
  490
  581
  673
  762
  843
  914
  972
  1,013
  1,036
  1,038
  1,019
  979
  917
  835
  732
  610
  469
  440
  460
  479
  499
  520
  540
  561
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  18
  123
  179
  251
  341
  451
  581
  729
  895
  1,077
  1,271
  1,475
  1,687
  1,902
  2,120
  2,336
  2,550
  2,761
  2,967
  3,168
  3,365
  3,557
  3,745
  3,931
  4,243
  4,619
  5,010
  5,417
  5,840
  6,279
  6,735
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  5
  -110
  -159
  -224
  -305
  -403
  -519
  -651
  -799
  -961
  -1,135
  -1,318
  -1,506
  -1,699
  -1,893
  -2,086
  -2,277
  -2,465
  -2,649
  -2,829
  -3,005
  -3,176
  -3,344
  -3,510
  -3,674
  -3,838
  -4,002
  -4,167
  -4,336
  -4,508
  -4,686
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  13
  19
  27
  37
  48
  62
  78
  96
  115
  136
  158
  180
  204
  227
  250
  273
  295
  317
  339
  360
  381
  401
  421
  569
  781
  1,008
  1,250
  1,504
  1,771
  2,049
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  13
  17
  23
  30
  37
  45
  53
  60
  66
  71
  75
  77
  77
  76
  73
  69
  64
  58
  52
  46
  39
  33
  28
  29
  30
  29
  27
  23
  19
  15
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  61.1
  39.0
  25.9
  17.9
  12.8
  9.5
  7.2
  5.7
  4.6
  3.8
  3.2
  2.8
  2.5
  2.2
  2.0
  1.9
  1.8
  1.7
  1.6
  1.6
  1.5
  1.5
  1.5
  1.5
  1.5
  1.5
  1.5
  1.5
  1.5
  1.5

Blue Capital Reinsurance Holdings Ltd. provides collateralized reinsurance in the property catastrophe market and invests in various insurance-linked securities. The Company conducts its operations through its subsidiaries, including Blue Capital Re Ltd. (Blue Capital Re), which provides collateralized reinsurance, and Blue Capital Re ILS Ltd. (Blue Capital Re ILS), which conducts hedging and other investment activities. Blue Capital Re provides reinsurance to third-party insurance and reinsurance companies through reinsurance contracts, either directly with the cedant or on a fronted basis. Blue Capital Re ILS may purchase catastrophe bonds to access certain risks. Blue Capital Re or Blue Capital Re ILS may buy and sell industry loss warranties as a way to access certain risks. Blue Capital Re ILS' portfolio may include over-the-counter or exchange-traded futures or options listed on catastrophe indexes, such as catastrophe or weather derivatives.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Blue Capital Reinsurance Holdings (BCRH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.2
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 3.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Return On Total Capital 7.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Return On Equity 7.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 32.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.4%
Operating Margin 34.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 32.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.4%
Net Profit Margin 32.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 135.7%

BCRH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BCRH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $43 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Blue Capital Reinsurance Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Blue Capital Reinsurance Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BCRH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BCRH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Blue Capital Reinsurance Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Blue Capital Reinsurance Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BCRH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 44.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BCRH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Blue Capital Reinsurance Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Blue Capital Reinsurance Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BCRH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BCRH are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Blue Capital Reinsurance Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BCRH is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $183 million for Blue Capital Reinsurance Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 8.943 million for Blue Capital Reinsurance Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Blue Capital Reinsurance Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Blue Capital posts 4Q profit   [Jan-31-18 03:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ Blue Capital Reinsurance Holdings Provides Company Outlook   [Nov-30-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Blue Capital reports 3Q loss   [Oct-30-17 06:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ Blue Capital posts 2Q profit   [Jul-31-17 10:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ Blue Capital posts 1Q profit   [May-01-17 05:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ Blue Capital posts 4Q profit   [Feb-01-17 06:28PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of BCRH
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