Intrinsic value of BioDelivery Sciences International - BDSI

Previous Close

$3.76

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$3.76

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of BDSI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  39.20
  35.78
  32.70
  29.93
  27.44
  25.19
  23.18
  21.36
  19.72
  18.25
  16.92
  15.73
  14.66
  13.69
  12.82
  12.04
  11.34
  10.70
  10.13
  9.62
  9.16
  8.74
  8.37
  8.03
  7.73
  7.46
  7.21
  6.99
  6.79
  6.61
Revenue, $m
  86
  117
  155
  202
  257
  322
  397
  482
  577
  682
  797
  923
  1,058
  1,203
  1,357
  1,521
  1,693
  1,875
  2,064
  2,263
  2,470
  2,686
  2,911
  3,145
  3,388
  3,640
  3,903
  4,176
  4,459
  4,754
Variable operating expenses, $m
  86
  115
  151
  195
  247
  309
  379
  459
  549
  648
  753
  871
  999
  1,136
  1,282
  1,436
  1,599
  1,770
  1,949
  2,137
  2,332
  2,536
  2,748
  2,969
  3,198
  3,437
  3,685
  3,942
  4,210
  4,488
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  65
  67
  68
  70
  71
  73
  75
  76
  78
  80
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
  99
  101
  103
  106
  108
  110
  113
  115
  118
  120
  123
Total operating expenses, $m
  151
  182
  219
  265
  318
  382
  454
  535
  627
  728
  834
  954
  1,084
  1,223
  1,371
  1,527
  1,692
  1,865
  2,046
  2,236
  2,433
  2,639
  2,854
  3,077
  3,308
  3,550
  3,800
  4,060
  4,330
  4,611
Operating income, $m
  -65
  -65
  -64
  -63
  -61
  -59
  -57
  -54
  -50
  -46
  -37
  -31
  -26
  -20
  -13
  -6
  2
  10
  19
  28
  37
  47
  57
  68
  79
  91
  103
  116
  129
  143
EBITDA, $m
  -56
  -54
  -51
  -48
  -43
  -38
  -31
  -24
  -15
  -5
  5
  17
  30
  44
  59
  75
  91
  109
  128
  147
  167
  189
  211
  234
  258
  283
  309
  336
  364
  394
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  11
  18
  26
  37
  50
  66
  85
  106
  130
  157
  187
  220
  256
  294
  336
  380
  426
  475
  527
  581
  637
  696
  758
  822
  889
  958
  1,030
  1,104
  1,182
  1,263
Earnings before tax, $m
  -76
  -82
  -90
  -100
  -112
  -126
  -142
  -160
  -180
  -203
  -224
  -252
  -282
  -314
  -348
  -385
  -424
  -465
  -508
  -553
  -600
  -650
  -701
  -754
  -809
  -867
  -927
  -989
  -1,053
  -1,120
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -76
  -82
  -90
  -100
  -112
  -126
  -142
  -160
  -180
  -203
  -224
  -252
  -282
  -314
  -348
  -385
  -424
  -465
  -508
  -553
  -600
  -650
  -701
  -754
  -809
  -867
  -927
  -989
  -1,053
  -1,120

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  123
  166
  221
  287
  366
  458
  564
  684
  819
  969
  1,133
  1,311
  1,503
  1,709
  1,928
  2,160
  2,405
  2,663
  2,933
  3,215
  3,509
  3,816
  4,135
  4,467
  4,812
  5,171
  5,544
  5,931
  6,334
  6,753
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  123
  166
  221
  287
  366
  458
  564
  684
  819
  969
  1,133
  1,311
  1,503
  1,709
  1,928
  2,160
  2,405
  2,663
  2,933
  3,215
  3,509
  3,816
  4,135
  4,467
  4,812
  5,171
  5,544
  5,931
  6,334
  6,753
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.699
  0.705
  0.701
  0.704
  0.702
  0.703
  0.704
  0.705
  0.705
  0.704
  0.703
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
  0.704
Average production assets, $m
  23
  31
  41
  53
  68
  85
  105
  127
  152
  180
  211
  244
  279
  318
  358
  402
  447
  495
  545
  597
  652
  709
  769
  830
  894
  961
  1,030
  1,102
  1,177
  1,255
Working capital, $m
  -11
  -14
  -19
  -25
  -32
  -40
  -49
  -59
  -71
  -84
  -98
  -114
  -130
  -148
  -167
  -187
  -208
  -231
  -254
  -278
  -304
  -330
  -358
  -387
  -417
  -448
  -480
  -514
  -548
  -585
Total debt, $m
  79
  118
  167
  226
  297
  380
  475
  584
  705
  839
  987
  1,147
  1,320
  1,505
  1,702
  1,911
  2,131
  2,362
  2,605
  2,858
  3,123
  3,399
  3,686
  3,984
  4,295
  4,617
  4,952
  5,301
  5,663
  6,039
Total liabilities, $m
  110
  150
  199
  258
  329
  412
  507
  615
  737
  871
  1,018
  1,179
  1,351
  1,536
  1,733
  1,942
  2,162
  2,394
  2,636
  2,890
  3,155
  3,430
  3,717
  4,016
  4,326
  4,649
  4,984
  5,332
  5,694
  6,071
Total equity, $m
  12
  17
  22
  29
  37
  46
  57
  69
  83
  98
  114
  132
  152
  173
  195
  218
  243
  269
  296
  325
  354
  385
  418
  451
  486
  522
  560
  599
  640
  682
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  122
  167
  221
  287
  366
  458
  564
  684
  820
  969
  1,132
  1,311
  1,503
  1,709
  1,928
  2,160
  2,405
  2,663
  2,932
  3,215
  3,509
  3,815
  4,135
  4,467
  4,812
  5,171
  5,544
  5,931
  6,334
  6,753
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.350
  7.020
  7.490
  7.810
  8.050
  8.220
  8.350
  8.440
  8.520
  8.580
  8.630
  8.660
  8.690
  8.720
  8.740
  8.760
  8.770
  8.780
  8.790
  8.800
  8.810
  8.820
  8.830
  8.830
  8.840
  8.840
  8.840
  8.850
  8.850
  8.850
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -76
  -82
  -90
  -100
  -112
  -126
  -142
  -160
  -180
  -203
  -224
  -252
  -282
  -314
  -348
  -385
  -424
  -465
  -508
  -553
  -600
  -650
  -701
  -754
  -809
  -867
  -927
  -989
  -1,053
  -1,120
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  21
  25
  30
  35
  40
  42
  49
  56
  64
  72
  80
  89
  99
  109
  119
  130
  142
  154
  166
  179
  192
  206
  220
  235
  251
Funds from operations, $m
  -67
  -72
  -78
  -85
  -94
  -104
  -116
  -130
  -145
  -163
  -182
  -203
  -226
  -250
  -277
  -305
  -335
  -366
  -399
  -434
  -470
  -508
  -547
  -588
  -630
  -675
  -721
  -768
  -818
  -869
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
Cash from operations, $m
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -79
  -87
  -96
  -107
  -119
  -134
  -150
  -168
  -187
  -209
  -232
  -258
  -285
  -313
  -344
  -376
  -409
  -444
  -481
  -519
  -559
  -601
  -644
  -688
  -735
  -783
  -833
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -21
  -25
  -30
  -36
  -42
  -49
  -56
  -64
  -72
  -80
  -89
  -99
  -109
  -119
  -130
  -142
  -154
  -166
  -179
  -192
  -206
  -220
  -235
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -9
  -13
  -16
  -20
  -26
  -31
  -37
  -43
  -50
  -58
  -66
  -75
  -85
  -94
  -105
  -115
  -126
  -137
  -149
  -161
  -174
  -187
  -201
  -216
  -230
  -246
  -261
  -278
  -295
  -313
Free cash flow, $m
  -73
  -81
  -89
  -100
  -112
  -127
  -144
  -163
  -184
  -208
  -234
  -263
  -293
  -327
  -362
  -400
  -439
  -481
  -525
  -571
  -619
  -669
  -721
  -775
  -831
  -889
  -950
  -1,013
  -1,078
  -1,146
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  31
  39
  49
  59
  71
  83
  95
  108
  121
  134
  147
  160
  173
  185
  197
  209
  220
  231
  243
  254
  265
  276
  287
  299
  310
  323
  335
  348
  362
  376
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  79
  87
  96
  107
  120
  135
  152
  172
  194
  218
  240
  270
  301
  335
  371
  409
  449
  491
  535
  582
  630
  681
  733
  788
  844
  903
  964
  1,028
  1,094
  1,162
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  110
  126
  145
  166
  191
  218
  247
  280
  315
  352
  387
  430
  474
  520
  568
  618
  669
  722
  778
  836
  895
  957
  1,020
  1,087
  1,154
  1,226
  1,299
  1,376
  1,456
  1,538
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  37
  46
  55
  66
  78
  91
  104
  117
  131
  145
  154
  167
  180
  193
  206
  218
  230
  241
  253
  265
  276
  288
  299
  311
  324
  336
  350
  363
  378
  393
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -79
  -87
  -96
  -107
  -120
  -135
  -152
  -172
  -194
  -218
  -240
  -270
  -301
  -335
  -371
  -409
  -449
  -491
  -535
  -582
  -630
  -681
  -733
  -788
  -844
  -903
  -964
  -1,028
  -1,094
  -1,162
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -42
  -41
  -40
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -48
  -54
  -63
  -74
  -87
  -102
  -121
  -142
  -165
  -191
  -219
  -250
  -282
  -317
  -354
  -393
  -434
  -476
  -520
  -567
  -615
  -664
  -716
  -769
Discount rate, %
  9.20
  9.66
  10.14
  10.65
  11.18
  11.74
  12.33
  12.95
  13.59
  14.27
  14.99
  15.74
  16.52
  17.35
  18.22
  19.13
  20.08
  21.09
  22.14
  23.25
  24.41
  25.63
  26.91
  28.26
  29.67
  31.15
  32.71
  34.35
  36.07
  37.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -39
  -34
  -30
  -27
  -24
  -23
  -21
  -21
  -20
  -19
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -15
  -13
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  52.9
  31.1
  19.8
  13.4
  9.5
  6.9
  5.2
  4.0
  3.1
  2.5
  2.0
  1.6
  1.3
  1.1
  0.9
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1

BioDelivery Sciences International, Inc. is a specialty pharmaceutical company. The Company develops and commercializes, either on its own or in partnerships with third parties, applications of approved therapeutics to address unmet medical needs using drug delivery technologies. The Company develops pharmaceutical products aimed principally in the areas of pain management and addiction. The Company's products utilize the BioErodible MucoAdhesive (BEMA) drug delivery technology, a small, erodible polymer film for application to the buccal mucosa (the lining inside the cheek). The Company's United Sates Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved product, ONSOLIS (fentanyl buccal soluble film), as well as its approved products BUNAVAIL (buprenorphine and naloxone buccal film) buccal film and BELBUCA (buprenorphine) buccal film, utilize BEMA technology.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  BioDelivery Sciences International (BDSI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3
Price to Sales 12.7
Price to Book -11.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -3.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -66.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -161.1%
Total Debt to Equity -161.1%
Interest Coverage -21
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -82.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -67.8%
Return On Total Capital -186.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -124.8%
Return On Equity -957.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -416.4%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 65.2%
EBITDA Margin -393.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -200%
Operating Margin -393.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -188.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -418.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -212.1%
Net Profit Margin -418.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -212.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

BDSI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BDSI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $61.985 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by BioDelivery Sciences International. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of BioDelivery Sciences International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BDSI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 39.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.2%, whose default value for BDSI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of BioDelivery Sciences International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of BioDelivery Sciences International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BDSI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 101.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $64 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BDSI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 22.3% for BioDelivery Sciences International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for BioDelivery Sciences International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BDSI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BDSI are equal to 26.4%.

Life of production assets of 4.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in BioDelivery Sciences International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BDSI is equal to -12.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $8.877 million for BioDelivery Sciences International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 59.559 million for BioDelivery Sciences International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of BioDelivery Sciences International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ BioDelivery: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:50PM  Associated Press]
▶ The most valuable public companies in the Triangle (Slideshow)   [Nov-05-18 02:29PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ BDSI files suit against generic drugmaker   [Sep-17-18 12:49PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Inside The List: Highest-Paid Public Company CEOs   [Sep-04-18 02:38PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Some highs, lows as RTP biotech companies report earnings   [Aug-10-18 05:25PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ BioDelivery: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ BDSI closes $50M equity financing heres what its board looks like now   [May-22-18 02:02PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ BioDelivery: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-10-18 04:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ From BDSI to Red Hat: The Triangle's top inside stock sales of 1Q2018   [Apr-03-18 08:36AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Raleigh pharma quadruples revenue, lands new contract   [08:25AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ BioDelivery reports 4Q loss   [04:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ United Therapeutics settles patent litigation over $157M drug   [Feb-16-18 03:16PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ BDSI reaches settlement with generic drug giant Teva   [Feb-07-18 08:35AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ BDSIs new president: We're expanding our sales force   [Dec-22-17 12:50PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ BioDelivery Sciences Appoints Scott Plesha to President   [Dec-20-17 08:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ BioDelivery reports 3Q loss   [Nov-09-17 04:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ Penny Stocks to Watch for November 2017   [Oct-31-17 10:12AM  Investopedia]

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