Intrinsic value of Bloom Energy Corporation - BE

Previous Close

$11.72

  Intrinsic Value

$151.93

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$11.72

 
Intrinsic value

$151.93

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of BE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  602
  929
  1,390
  2,017
  2,845
  3,912
  5,251
  6,895
  8,872
  11,206
  13,915
  17,013
  20,506
  24,398
  28,688
  33,371
  38,440
  43,888
  49,706
  55,884
  62,415
  69,292
  76,510
  84,065
  91,956
  100,185
  108,754
  117,670
  126,941
  136,576
Variable operating expenses, $m
  301
  465
  695
  1,008
  1,423
  1,956
  2,625
  3,447
  4,436
  5,603
  6,958
  8,506
  10,253
  12,199
  14,344
  16,685
  19,220
  21,944
  24,853
  27,942
  31,208
  34,646
  38,255
  42,032
  45,978
  50,092
  54,377
  58,835
  63,470
  68,288
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  362
  370
  378
  386
  395
  403
  412
  421
  431
  440
  450
  460
  470
  480
  491
  501
  512
  524
  535
  547
  559
  571
  584
  597
  610
  623
  637
  651
  665
  680
Total operating expenses, $m
  663
  835
  1,073
  1,394
  1,818
  2,359
  3,037
  3,868
  4,867
  6,043
  7,408
  8,966
  10,723
  12,679
  14,835
  17,186
  19,732
  22,468
  25,388
  28,489
  31,767
  35,217
  38,839
  42,629
  46,588
  50,715
  55,014
  59,486
  64,135
  68,968
Operating income, $m
  -61
  95
  317
  622
  1,028
  1,553
  2,213
  3,026
  4,005
  5,163
  6,508
  8,047
  9,783
  11,719
  13,853
  16,184
  18,708
  21,420
  24,318
  27,395
  30,649
  34,075
  37,671
  41,436
  45,368
  49,469
  53,740
  58,184
  62,805
  67,608
EBITDA, $m
  13
  209
  488
  870
  1,378
  2,034
  2,859
  3,874
  5,097
  6,542
  8,220
  10,140
  12,306
  14,721
  17,383
  20,290
  23,437
  26,820
  30,433
  34,271
  38,328
  42,600
  47,084
  51,779
  56,682
  61,795
  67,121
  72,662
  78,423
  84,412
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  118
  -80
  39
  208
  436
  739
  1,129
  1,618
  2,218
  2,940
  3,793
  4,782
  5,914
  7,190
  8,611
  10,178
  11,889
  13,741
  15,730
  17,855
  20,112
  22,498
  25,009
  27,646
  30,405
  33,288
  36,293
  39,423
  42,680
  46,066
Earnings before tax, $m
  -179
  175
  278
  415
  592
  813
  1,085
  1,408
  1,787
  2,223
  2,715
  3,264
  3,869
  4,529
  5,242
  6,006
  6,819
  7,680
  8,587
  9,540
  10,536
  11,577
  12,661
  13,790
  14,963
  16,181
  17,447
  18,761
  20,125
  21,542
Tax expense, $m
  0
  47
  75
  112
  160
  220
  293
  380
  483
  600
  733
  881
  1,045
  1,223
  1,415
  1,622
  1,841
  2,074
  2,319
  2,576
  2,845
  3,126
  3,419
  3,723
  4,040
  4,369
  4,711
  5,065
  5,434
  5,816
Net income, $m
  -179
  128
  203
  303
  432
  594
  792
  1,028
  1,305
  1,622
  1,982
  2,383
  2,825
  3,306
  3,827
  4,384
  4,978
  5,606
  6,269
  6,964
  7,692
  8,451
  9,243
  10,067
  10,923
  11,812
  12,736
  13,695
  14,691
  15,726

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,953
  3,018
  4,513
  6,548
  9,239
  12,701
  17,048
  22,386
  28,805
  36,383
  45,179
  55,236
  66,578
  79,215
  93,142
  108,347
  124,807
  142,495
  161,383
  181,442
  202,647
  224,974
  248,408
  272,938
  298,559
  325,275
  353,098
  382,046
  412,145
  443,429
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,953
  3,018
  4,513
  6,548
  9,239
  12,701
  17,048
  22,386
  28,805
  36,383
  45,179
  55,236
  66,578
  79,215
  93,142
  108,347
  124,807
  142,495
  161,383
  181,442
  202,647
  224,974
  248,408
  272,938
  298,559
  325,275
  353,098
  382,046
  412,145
  443,429
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
Average production assets, $m
  829
  1,281
  1,915
  2,779
  3,921
  5,391
  7,236
  9,501
  12,225
  15,442
  19,175
  23,444
  28,257
  33,621
  39,532
  45,985
  52,971
  60,478
  68,495
  77,008
  86,008
  95,485
  105,430
  115,841
  126,716
  138,055
  149,863
  162,149
  174,924
  188,202
Working capital, $m
  -62
  -96
  -143
  -208
  -293
  -403
  -541
  -710
  -914
  -1,154
  -1,433
  -1,752
  -2,112
  -2,513
  -2,955
  -3,437
  -3,959
  -4,521
  -5,120
  -5,756
  -6,429
  -7,137
  -7,881
  -8,659
  -9,471
  -10,319
  -11,202
  -12,120
  -13,075
  -14,067
Total debt, $m
  -644
  314
  1,660
  3,492
  5,913
  9,029
  12,942
  17,746
  23,523
  30,343
  38,260
  47,311
  57,519
  68,892
  81,427
  95,111
  109,924
  125,844
  142,843
  160,896
  179,981
  200,076
  221,166
  243,242
  266,301
  290,346
  315,387
  341,440
  368,529
  396,685
Total liabilities, $m
  1,758
  2,716
  4,062
  5,893
  8,315
  11,431
  15,344
  20,147
  25,924
  32,745
  40,661
  49,712
  59,920
  71,293
  83,828
  97,512
  112,326
  128,245
  145,244
  163,298
  182,382
  202,477
  223,568
  245,644
  268,703
  292,748
  317,788
  343,841
  370,930
  399,086
Total equity, $m
  195
  302
  451
  655
  924
  1,270
  1,705
  2,239
  2,880
  3,638
  4,518
  5,524
  6,658
  7,921
  9,314
  10,835
  12,481
  14,249
  16,138
  18,144
  20,265
  22,497
  24,841
  27,294
  29,856
  32,528
  35,310
  38,205
  41,214
  44,343
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,953
  3,018
  4,513
  6,548
  9,239
  12,701
  17,049
  22,386
  28,804
  36,383
  45,179
  55,236
  66,578
  79,214
  93,142
  108,347
  124,807
  142,494
  161,382
  181,442
  202,647
  224,974
  248,409
  272,938
  298,559
  325,276
  353,098
  382,046
  412,144
  443,429
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -3.290
  1.040
  3.680
  5.330
  6.400
  7.110
  7.590
  7.930
  8.170
  8.340
  8.470
  8.570
  8.640
  8.700
  8.740
  8.780
  8.810
  8.830
  8.850
  8.870
  8.880
  8.890
  8.900
  8.910
  8.920
  8.930
  8.930
  8.940
  8.940
  8.950
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -179
  128
  203
  303
  432
  594
  792
  1,028
  1,305
  1,622
  1,982
  2,383
  2,825
  3,306
  3,827
  4,384
  4,978
  5,606
  6,269
  6,964
  7,692
  8,451
  9,243
  10,067
  10,923
  11,812
  12,736
  13,695
  14,691
  15,726
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  74
  114
  171
  248
  350
  481
  646
  848
  1,092
  1,379
  1,712
  2,093
  2,523
  3,002
  3,530
  4,106
  4,730
  5,400
  6,116
  6,876
  7,679
  8,525
  9,413
  10,343
  11,314
  12,326
  13,381
  14,478
  15,618
  16,804
Funds from operations, $m
  -105
  242
  374
  551
  782
  1,075
  1,438
  1,876
  2,396
  3,001
  3,694
  4,476
  5,348
  6,308
  7,356
  8,490
  9,707
  11,006
  12,384
  13,840
  15,371
  16,977
  18,656
  20,410
  22,237
  24,139
  26,117
  28,173
  30,309
  32,529
Change in working capital, $m
  -23
  -34
  -47
  -65
  -85
  -110
  -138
  -169
  -204
  -240
  -279
  -319
  -360
  -401
  -442
  -482
  -522
  -561
  -599
  -636
  -673
  -708
  -743
  -778
  -813
  -848
  -883
  -918
  -955
  -992
Cash from operations, $m
  -81
  276
  421
  615
  867
  1,185
  1,576
  2,046
  2,600
  3,242
  3,973
  4,795
  5,707
  6,709
  7,798
  8,972
  10,230
  11,567
  12,983
  14,476
  16,044
  17,685
  19,400
  21,188
  23,050
  24,986
  26,999
  29,091
  31,264
  33,522
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -46
  -74
  -114
  -171
  -248
  -350
  -481
  -646
  -848
  -1,092
  -1,379
  -1,712
  -2,093
  -2,523
  -3,002
  -3,530
  -4,106
  -4,730
  -5,400
  -6,116
  -6,876
  -7,679
  -8,525
  -9,413
  -10,343
  -11,314
  -12,326
  -13,381
  -14,478
  -15,618
New CAPEX, $m
  -311
  -452
  -635
  -864
  -1,142
  -1,470
  -1,845
  -2,265
  -2,724
  -3,216
  -3,733
  -4,268
  -4,814
  -5,363
  -5,911
  -6,453
  -6,986
  -7,507
  -8,017
  -8,514
  -9,000
  -9,476
  -9,946
  -10,411
  -10,874
  -11,339
  -11,809
  -12,286
  -12,775
  -13,278
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -357
  -526
  -749
  -1,035
  -1,390
  -1,820
  -2,326
  -2,911
  -3,572
  -4,308
  -5,112
  -5,980
  -6,907
  -7,886
  -8,913
  -9,983
  -11,092
  -12,237
  -13,417
  -14,630
  -15,876
  -17,155
  -18,471
  -19,824
  -21,217
  -22,653
  -24,135
  -25,667
  -27,253
  -28,896
Free cash flow, $m
  -439
  -250
  -328
  -419
  -523
  -635
  -751
  -866
  -973
  -1,066
  -1,139
  -1,185
  -1,200
  -1,177
  -1,115
  -1,011
  -862
  -670
  -433
  -153
  168
  529
  928
  1,363
  1,832
  2,333
  2,864
  3,424
  4,012
  4,626
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1,585
  958
  1,346
  1,832
  2,421
  3,116
  3,913
  4,804
  5,777
  6,820
  7,917
  9,051
  10,208
  11,373
  12,535
  13,684
  14,814
  15,919
  16,999
  18,053
  19,084
  20,095
  21,090
  22,076
  23,059
  24,045
  25,040
  26,053
  27,089
  28,156
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2,496
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  911
  958
  1,346
  1,832
  2,421
  3,116
  3,913
  4,804
  5,777
  6,820
  7,917
  9,051
  10,208
  11,373
  12,535
  13,684
  14,814
  15,919
  16,999
  18,053
  19,084
  20,095
  21,090
  22,076
  23,059
  24,045
  25,040
  26,053
  27,089
  28,156
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  472
  708
  1,018
  1,412
  1,899
  2,481
  3,162
  3,938
  4,804
  5,754
  6,778
  7,866
  9,008
  10,196
  11,420
  12,674
  13,952
  15,250
  16,566
  17,900
  19,252
  20,624
  22,019
  23,440
  24,891
  26,378
  27,905
  29,477
  31,101
  32,782
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -2,496
  -106
  -150
  -204
  -269
  -346
  -435
  -534
  -642
  -758
  -880
  -1,006
  -1,134
  -1,264
  -1,393
  -1,520
  -1,646
  -1,769
  -1,889
  -2,006
  -2,120
  -2,233
  -2,343
  -2,453
  -2,562
  -2,672
  -2,782
  -2,895
  -3,010
  -3,128
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -2,023
  602
  869
  1,209
  1,630
  2,135
  2,727
  3,404
  4,162
  4,996
  5,898
  6,860
  7,874
  8,932
  10,027
  11,153
  12,306
  13,481
  14,677
  15,894
  17,132
  18,391
  19,676
  20,987
  22,329
  23,706
  25,123
  26,583
  28,091
  29,653
Discount rate, %
  5.60
  5.88
  6.17
  6.48
  6.81
  7.15
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.69
  9.12
  9.58
  10.06
  10.56
  11.09
  11.64
  12.22
  12.84
  13.48
  14.15
  14.86
  15.60
  16.38
  17.20
  18.06
  18.96
  19.91
  20.91
  21.95
  23.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -1,916
  537
  726
  940
  1,172
  1,411
  1,643
  1,856
  2,035
  2,172
  2,258
  2,289
  2,266
  2,191
  2,071
  1,915
  1,732
  1,534
  1,329
  1,126
  934
  758
  601
  465
  352
  259
  187
  131
  89
  59
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Bloom Energy Corporation (BE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

BE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $376 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Bloom Energy Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Bloom Energy Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.6%, whose default value for BE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Bloom Energy Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Bloom Energy Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 50%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $354 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 12.5% for Bloom Energy Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Bloom Energy Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BE are equal to 137.8%.

Life of production assets of 11.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Bloom Energy Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BE is equal to -10.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-2121.85 million for Bloom Energy Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 109.302 million for Bloom Energy Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Bloom Energy Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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