Intrinsic value of Franklin Resources, Inc. - BEN

Previous Close

$33.36

  Intrinsic Value

$60.18

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+80%

Previous close

$33.36

 
Intrinsic value

$60.18

 
Up/down potential

+80%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as BEN.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BEN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 17.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  6,445
  6,594
  6,763
  6,953
  7,164
  7,395
  7,647
  7,920
  8,214
  8,529
  8,866
  9,226
  9,609
  10,016
  10,448
  10,906
  11,391
  11,903
  12,445
  13,017
  13,620
  14,256
  14,927
  15,634
  16,378
  17,162
  17,987
  18,855
  19,768
  20,728
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,159
  4,249
  4,353
  4,468
  4,597
  4,738
  4,891
  5,057
  5,236
  5,428
  5,400
  5,619
  5,853
  6,101
  6,364
  6,643
  6,938
  7,250
  7,580
  7,928
  8,296
  8,683
  9,092
  9,522
  9,976
  10,453
  10,955
  11,484
  12,040
  12,625
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,159
  4,249
  4,353
  4,468
  4,597
  4,738
  4,891
  5,057
  5,236
  5,428
  5,400
  5,619
  5,853
  6,101
  6,364
  6,643
  6,938
  7,250
  7,580
  7,928
  8,296
  8,683
  9,092
  9,522
  9,976
  10,453
  10,955
  11,484
  12,040
  12,625
Operating income, $m
  2,286
  2,344
  2,411
  2,485
  2,567
  2,658
  2,756
  2,863
  2,978
  3,101
  3,466
  3,607
  3,756
  3,916
  4,084
  4,263
  4,453
  4,653
  4,865
  5,089
  5,324
  5,573
  5,835
  6,112
  6,403
  6,709
  7,031
  7,371
  7,728
  8,103
EBITDA, $m
  2,615
  2,675
  2,744
  2,821
  2,906
  3,000
  3,102
  3,213
  3,332
  3,460
  3,597
  3,743
  3,898
  4,063
  4,239
  4,424
  4,621
  4,829
  5,049
  5,281
  5,525
  5,783
  6,055
  6,342
  6,644
  6,962
  7,297
  7,649
  8,019
  8,409
Interest expense (income), $m
  42
  39
  44
  50
  56
  63
  71
  80
  89
  100
  111
  122
  135
  149
  163
  178
  195
  212
  230
  249
  270
  291
  314
  338
  363
  390
  418
  447
  478
  511
  545
Earnings before tax, $m
  2,247
  2,300
  2,361
  2,429
  2,504
  2,587
  2,676
  2,773
  2,878
  2,990
  3,344
  3,472
  3,608
  3,753
  3,906
  4,069
  4,241
  4,423
  4,616
  4,819
  5,033
  5,259
  5,498
  5,749
  6,013
  6,291
  6,584
  6,893
  7,217
  7,558
Tax expense, $m
  607
  621
  637
  656
  676
  698
  723
  749
  777
  807
  903
  937
  974
  1,013
  1,055
  1,099
  1,145
  1,194
  1,246
  1,301
  1,359
  1,420
  1,484
  1,552
  1,624
  1,699
  1,778
  1,861
  1,949
  2,041
Net income, $m
  1,640
  1,679
  1,723
  1,773
  1,828
  1,888
  1,954
  2,025
  2,101
  2,183
  2,441
  2,534
  2,634
  2,739
  2,851
  2,970
  3,096
  3,229
  3,369
  3,518
  3,674
  3,839
  4,013
  4,196
  4,389
  4,593
  4,807
  5,032
  5,268
  5,517

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,663
  8,862
  9,090
  9,346
  9,629
  9,940
  10,279
  10,645
  11,040
  11,464
  11,917
  12,400
  12,915
  13,463
  14,043
  14,659
  15,310
  15,999
  16,727
  17,496
  18,307
  19,162
  20,063
  21,013
  22,014
  23,067
  24,175
  25,342
  26,569
  27,860
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,663
  8,862
  9,090
  9,346
  9,629
  9,940
  10,279
  10,645
  11,040
  11,464
  11,917
  12,400
  12,915
  13,463
  14,043
  14,659
  15,310
  15,999
  16,727
  17,496
  18,307
  19,162
  20,063
  21,013
  22,014
  23,067
  24,175
  25,342
  26,569
  27,860
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
Average production assets, $m
  1,702
  1,741
  1,785
  1,836
  1,891
  1,952
  2,019
  2,091
  2,168
  2,252
  2,341
  2,436
  2,537
  2,644
  2,758
  2,879
  3,007
  3,143
  3,285
  3,436
  3,596
  3,764
  3,941
  4,127
  4,324
  4,531
  4,748
  4,978
  5,219
  5,472
Working capital, $m
  -735
  -752
  -771
  -793
  -817
  -843
  -872
  -903
  -936
  -972
  -1,011
  -1,052
  -1,095
  -1,142
  -1,191
  -1,243
  -1,299
  -1,357
  -1,419
  -1,484
  -1,553
  -1,625
  -1,702
  -1,782
  -1,867
  -1,956
  -2,050
  -2,149
  -2,254
  -2,363
Total debt, $m
  816
  919
  1,037
  1,170
  1,317
  1,478
  1,653
  1,843
  2,047
  2,267
  2,502
  2,752
  3,019
  3,302
  3,603
  3,922
  4,259
  4,616
  4,993
  5,391
  5,812
  6,255
  6,722
  7,214
  7,732
  8,277
  8,852
  9,456
  10,092
  10,760
Total liabilities, $m
  4,488
  4,591
  4,709
  4,841
  4,988
  5,149
  5,324
  5,514
  5,719
  5,938
  6,173
  6,423
  6,690
  6,974
  7,274
  7,593
  7,931
  8,288
  8,665
  9,063
  9,483
  9,926
  10,393
  10,885
  11,403
  11,949
  12,523
  13,127
  13,763
  14,432
Total equity, $m
  4,176
  4,272
  4,381
  4,505
  4,641
  4,791
  4,954
  5,131
  5,321
  5,525
  5,744
  5,977
  6,225
  6,489
  6,769
  7,066
  7,380
  7,712
  8,062
  8,433
  8,824
  9,236
  9,671
  10,128
  10,611
  11,118
  11,653
  12,215
  12,806
  13,429
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,664
  8,863
  9,090
  9,346
  9,629
  9,940
  10,278
  10,645
  11,040
  11,463
  11,917
  12,400
  12,915
  13,463
  14,043
  14,659
  15,311
  16,000
  16,727
  17,496
  18,307
  19,162
  20,064
  21,013
  22,014
  23,067
  24,176
  25,342
  26,569
  27,861
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.200
  0.220
  0.240
  0.260
  0.280
  0.310
  0.330
  0.360
  0.380
  0.410
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.510
  0.530
  0.560
  0.580
  0.600
  0.620
  0.640
  0.660
  0.680
  0.700
  0.710
  0.730
  0.740
  0.760
  0.770
  0.790
  0.800
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1,640
  1,679
  1,723
  1,773
  1,828
  1,888
  1,954
  2,025
  2,101
  2,183
  2,441
  2,534
  2,634
  2,739
  2,851
  2,970
  3,096
  3,229
  3,369
  3,518
  3,674
  3,839
  4,013
  4,196
  4,389
  4,593
  4,807
  5,032
  5,268
  5,517
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  328
  331
  333
  336
  339
  342
  346
  350
  354
  359
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  231
  242
  253
  265
  278
  292
  306
Funds from operations, $m
  1,969
  2,010
  2,056
  2,109
  2,167
  2,231
  2,300
  2,375
  2,455
  2,542
  2,572
  2,670
  2,775
  2,887
  3,006
  3,131
  3,264
  3,405
  3,553
  3,710
  3,875
  4,050
  4,233
  4,427
  4,631
  4,846
  5,072
  5,310
  5,560
  5,823
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
Cash from operations, $m
  1,983
  2,027
  2,076
  2,131
  2,191
  2,257
  2,329
  2,406
  2,489
  2,578
  2,610
  2,711
  2,819
  2,933
  3,055
  3,183
  3,319
  3,463
  3,615
  3,775
  3,944
  4,122
  4,310
  4,508
  4,716
  4,935
  5,166
  5,409
  5,664
  5,933
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -93
  -95
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -109
  -113
  -117
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -242
  -253
  -265
  -278
  -292
New CAPEX, $m
  -35
  -39
  -45
  -50
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -72
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -187
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -241
  -254
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -128
  -134
  -142
  -150
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -185
  -195
  -204
  -215
  -226
  -237
  -249
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -303
  -319
  -335
  -351
  -369
  -387
  -407
  -427
  -449
  -471
  -494
  -519
  -546
Free cash flow, $m
  1,855
  1,892
  1,934
  1,981
  2,033
  2,090
  2,153
  2,221
  2,295
  2,374
  2,395
  2,486
  2,582
  2,684
  2,793
  2,908
  3,030
  3,160
  3,296
  3,440
  3,593
  3,753
  3,923
  4,101
  4,289
  4,487
  4,695
  4,914
  5,145
  5,387
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  88
  103
  118
  132
  147
  161
  175
  190
  204
  219
  235
  251
  267
  283
  301
  319
  337
  357
  377
  398
  420
  443
  467
  492
  518
  546
  574
  604
  636
  669
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  88
  103
  118
  132
  147
  161
  175
  190
  204
  219
  235
  251
  267
  283
  301
  319
  337
  357
  377
  398
  420
  443
  467
  492
  518
  546
  574
  604
  636
  669
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,943
  1,996
  2,052
  2,113
  2,180
  2,251
  2,328
  2,411
  2,499
  2,593
  2,630
  2,736
  2,849
  2,968
  3,094
  3,227
  3,368
  3,517
  3,673
  3,839
  4,013
  4,196
  4,389
  4,593
  4,807
  5,032
  5,269
  5,519
  5,781
  6,056
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -76
  -96
  -110
  -123
  -137
  -150
  -163
  -177
  -190
  -204
  -218
  -233
  -248
  -264
  -280
  -297
  -314
  -332
  -351
  -370
  -391
  -412
  -435
  -458
  -482
  -508
  -534
  -562
  -592
  -622
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  5,800
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  7,666
  1,900
  1,942
  1,990
  2,043
  2,101
  2,165
  2,234
  2,309
  2,389
  2,411
  2,503
  2,600
  2,704
  2,814
  2,931
  3,054
  3,184
  3,322
  3,468
  3,622
  3,784
  3,955
  4,135
  4,325
  4,525
  4,735
  4,956
  5,189
  5,434
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  7,350
  1,739
  1,690
  1,638
  1,584
  1,525
  1,463
  1,396
  1,326
  1,252
  1,145
  1,068
  989
  908
  826
  745
  664
  586
  512
  441
  375
  314
  259
  211
  168
  132
  102
  77
  57
  41
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Franklin Resources, Inc. is a holding company. The Company, along with its subsidiaries, operates as Franklin Templeton Investments. It is a global investment management company that provides investment management and related services to retail, institutional and high net-worth clients in jurisdictions around the world. The Company offers its investment products and services under the Franklin, Templeton, Franklin Mutual Series, Franklin Bissett, Fiduciary Trust, Darby, Balanced Equity Management, K2 and LibertyShares brand names. Its products include investment funds and institutional, high net-worth and separately managed accounts (collectively, sponsored investment products (SIPs)). It offers various types of SIPs, such as the United States funds, cross-border funds, local/regional funds, and other managed accounts, alternative investment products and trusts. Its investment funds include the United States-registered funds, non-United States-registered funds and unregistered funds.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Franklin Resources, Inc. (BEN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.9
Price to Sales 2.9
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 26.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 18.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 8.7%
Total Debt to Equity 8.7%
Interest Coverage 62
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Return On Total Capital 12.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Return On Equity 13.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 41.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.5%
Operating Margin 35.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 39.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.6%
Net Profit Margin 26.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.1%
Effective Tax Rate 29.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30%
Payout Ratio 26%

BEN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BEN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6319 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Franklin Resources, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Franklin Resources, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BEN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BEN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Franklin Resources, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Franklin Resources, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BEN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 64.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BEN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Franklin Resources, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Franklin Resources, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BEN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BEN are equal to 26.4%.

Life of production assets of 17.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Franklin Resources, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BEN is equal to -11.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $9899.2 million for Franklin Resources, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 509.604 million for Franklin Resources, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Franklin Resources, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $17.0 billion.

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