Intrinsic value of Briggs&Stratton - BGG

Previous Close

$27.12

  Intrinsic Value

$10.61

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-61%

Previous close

$27.12

 
Intrinsic value

$10.61

 
Up/down potential

-61%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BGG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.27
  14.60
  13.64
  12.78
  12.00
  11.30
  10.67
  10.10
  9.59
  9.13
  8.72
  8.35
  8.01
  7.71
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
Revenue, $m
  1,786
  2,047
  2,326
  2,623
  2,938
  3,270
  3,619
  3,984
  4,366
  4,765
  5,181
  5,613
  6,063
  6,530
  7,016
  7,521
  8,046
  8,591
  9,158
  9,748
  10,362
  11,001
  11,666
  12,360
  13,083
  13,838
  14,625
  15,447
  16,305
  17,203
  18,140
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,993
  2,263
  2,550
  2,854
  3,175
  3,512
  3,865
  4,234
  4,619
  5,020
  5,422
  5,856
  6,308
  6,777
  7,265
  7,772
  8,298
  8,846
  9,416
  10,009
  10,626
  11,269
  11,939
  12,637
  13,366
  14,127
  14,921
  15,750
  16,616
  17,522
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,689
  1,993
  2,263
  2,550
  2,854
  3,175
  3,512
  3,865
  4,234
  4,619
  5,020
  5,422
  5,856
  6,308
  6,777
  7,265
  7,772
  8,298
  8,846
  9,416
  10,009
  10,626
  11,269
  11,939
  12,637
  13,366
  14,127
  14,921
  15,750
  16,616
  17,522
Operating income, $m
  97
  54
  63
  73
  84
  95
  107
  120
  133
  146
  160
  191
  207
  222
  239
  256
  274
  293
  312
  332
  353
  375
  397
  421
  446
  471
  498
  526
  556
  586
  618
EBITDA, $m
  153
  117
  133
  150
  168
  187
  207
  227
  249
  272
  296
  320
  346
  373
  401
  429
  459
  491
  523
  557
  592
  628
  666
  706
  747
  790
  835
  882
  931
  982
  1,036
Interest expense (income), $m
  19
  19
  30
  42
  55
  69
  83
  98
  113
  130
  147
  165
  183
  203
  223
  244
  265
  288
  311
  336
  361
  387
  415
  443
  473
  504
  536
  570
  606
  642
  681
Earnings before tax, $m
  80
  34
  33
  31
  29
  27
  24
  22
  19
  16
  13
  26
  23
  20
  16
  13
  9
  5
  1
  -3
  -8
  -12
  -17
  -22
  -27
  -33
  -38
  -44
  -50
  -56
  -63
Tax expense, $m
  23
  9
  9
  8
  8
  7
  7
  6
  5
  4
  4
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  57
  25
  24
  23
  21
  19
  18
  16
  14
  12
  10
  19
  17
  14
  12
  9
  6
  4
  1
  -3
  -8
  -12
  -17
  -22
  -27
  -33
  -38
  -44
  -50
  -56
  -63

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  62
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,451
  1,592
  1,809
  2,040
  2,284
  2,543
  2,814
  3,098
  3,395
  3,705
  4,028
  4,365
  4,714
  5,078
  5,456
  5,848
  6,256
  6,680
  7,121
  7,580
  8,057
  8,554
  9,072
  9,611
  10,174
  10,760
  11,372
  12,012
  12,679
  13,377
  14,106
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,389
  1,592
  1,809
  2,040
  2,284
  2,543
  2,814
  3,098
  3,395
  3,705
  4,028
  4,365
  4,714
  5,078
  5,456
  5,848
  6,256
  6,680
  7,121
  7,580
  8,057
  8,554
  9,072
  9,611
  10,174
  10,760
  11,372
  12,012
  12,679
  13,377
  14,106
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
Average production assets, $m
  448
  514
  584
  658
  737
  821
  908
  1,000
  1,096
  1,196
  1,300
  1,409
  1,522
  1,639
  1,761
  1,888
  2,019
  2,156
  2,299
  2,447
  2,601
  2,761
  2,928
  3,102
  3,284
  3,473
  3,671
  3,877
  4,093
  4,318
  4,553
Working capital, $m
  359
  340
  386
  435
  488
  543
  601
  661
  725
  791
  860
  932
  1,006
  1,084
  1,165
  1,248
  1,336
  1,426
  1,520
  1,618
  1,720
  1,826
  1,937
  2,052
  2,172
  2,297
  2,428
  2,564
  2,707
  2,856
  3,011
Total debt, $m
  222
  352
  491
  640
  797
  962
  1,136
  1,319
  1,510
  1,709
  1,916
  2,132
  2,357
  2,590
  2,833
  3,085
  3,347
  3,619
  3,902
  4,196
  4,503
  4,822
  5,154
  5,500
  5,861
  6,238
  6,631
  7,041
  7,470
  7,918
  8,386
Total liabilities, $m
  892
  1,022
  1,161
  1,310
  1,467
  1,632
  1,806
  1,989
  2,180
  2,379
  2,586
  2,802
  3,027
  3,260
  3,503
  3,755
  4,017
  4,289
  4,572
  4,866
  5,173
  5,492
  5,824
  6,170
  6,531
  6,908
  7,301
  7,711
  8,140
  8,588
  9,056
Total equity, $m
  559
  570
  647
  730
  818
  910
  1,007
  1,109
  1,215
  1,327
  1,442
  1,563
  1,688
  1,818
  1,953
  2,094
  2,240
  2,392
  2,549
  2,714
  2,885
  3,062
  3,248
  3,441
  3,642
  3,852
  4,071
  4,300
  4,539
  4,789
  5,050
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,451
  1,592
  1,808
  2,040
  2,285
  2,542
  2,813
  3,098
  3,395
  3,706
  4,028
  4,365
  4,715
  5,078
  5,456
  5,849
  6,257
  6,681
  7,121
  7,580
  8,058
  8,554
  9,072
  9,611
  10,173
  10,760
  11,372
  12,011
  12,679
  13,377
  14,106
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.397
  0.620
  0.760
  0.880
  0.970
  1.060
  1.130
  1.190
  1.240
  1.290
  1.330
  1.360
  1.400
  1.420
  1.450
  1.470
  1.490
  1.510
  1.530
  1.550
  1.560
  1.570
  1.590
  1.600
  1.610
  1.620
  1.630
  1.640
  1.650
  1.650
  1.660
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  57
  25
  24
  23
  21
  19
  18
  16
  14
  12
  10
  19
  17
  14
  12
  9
  6
  4
  1
  -3
  -8
  -12
  -17
  -22
  -27
  -33
  -38
  -44
  -50
  -56
  -63
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  56
  63
  70
  77
  84
  91
  100
  108
  117
  126
  135
  129
  140
  150
  162
  173
  185
  198
  211
  224
  239
  253
  269
  285
  301
  319
  337
  356
  375
  396
  418
Funds from operations, $m
  53
  88
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  145
  149
  157
  165
  173
  182
  192
  201
  211
  221
  231
  241
  251
  262
  274
  286
  299
  312
  325
  340
  355
Change in working capital, $m
  -37
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  136
  143
  149
  156
Cash from operations, $m
  90
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  72
  76
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
  111
  117
  123
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  199
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -41
  -47
  -54
  -60
  -68
  -75
  -83
  -92
  -101
  -110
  -119
  -129
  -140
  -150
  -162
  -173
  -185
  -198
  -211
  -224
  -239
  -253
  -269
  -285
  -301
  -319
  -337
  -356
  -375
  -396
New CAPEX, $m
  -83
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -182
  -189
  -198
  -206
  -216
  -225
  -235
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -79
  -107
  -117
  -129
  -139
  -151
  -163
  -175
  -188
  -201
  -214
  -228
  -242
  -257
  -272
  -289
  -305
  -322
  -340
  -359
  -378
  -399
  -420
  -443
  -467
  -490
  -517
  -543
  -572
  -600
  -631
Free cash flow, $m
  11
  -62
  -70
  -78
  -87
  -95
  -103
  -112
  -120
  -129
  -138
  -151
  -160
  -170
  -180
  -190
  -200
  -211
  -223
  -236
  -250
  -264
  -279
  -295
  -312
  -330
  -348
  -368
  -388
  -410
  -432
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  130
  139
  148
  157
  166
  174
  182
  191
  199
  207
  216
  225
  233
  243
  252
  262
  272
  283
  294
  306
  319
  332
  346
  361
  377
  393
  410
  429
  448
  468
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -12
  48
  54
  60
  67
  73
  79
  86
  92
  99
  106
  101
  108
  116
  123
  131
  140
  148
  157
  168
  179
  190
  202
  215
  229
  243
  257
  273
  289
  306
  324
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -15
  178
  193
  208
  224
  239
  253
  268
  283
  298
  313
  317
  333
  349
  366
  383
  402
  420
  440
  462
  485
  509
  534
  561
  590
  620
  650
  683
  718
  754
  792
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -4
  116
  123
  130
  137
  144
  150
  156
  163
  169
  176
  166
  173
  179
  186
  194
  201
  209
  218
  226
  235
  245
  255
  266
  277
  289
  302
  315
  329
  344
  360
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -65
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -168
  -179
  -190
  -202
  -215
  -229
  -243
  -257
  -273
  -289
  -306
  -324
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  62
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  105
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  59
  57
  55
  53
  51
  49
  47
  45
  43
  40
  38
  36
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  101
  42
  41
  41
  40
  38
  37
  35
  33
  31
  22
  20
  19
  17
  16
  14
  12
  11
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.6
  91.5
  87.6
  83.9
  80.5
  77.2
  74.2
  71.3
  68.7
  66.1
  64.0
  61.9
  59.9
  58.0
  56.2
  54.5
  52.8
  51.2
  49.6
  48.1
  46.6
  45.2
  43.8
  42.5
  41.1
  39.9
  38.6
  37.4
  36.2
  35.1

Briggs & Stratton Corporation is a producer of gasoline engines for outdoor power equipment. The Company designs, manufactures, markets, sells and services the various products for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) around the world. It also markets and sells related service parts and accessories for its engines. Its subsidiary is a marketer of pressure washers, and it is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of power generation, lawn and garden, turf care and job site products through its Simplicity, Snapper, Snapper Pro, Ferris, PowerBoss, Allmand, Billy Goat, Murray, Branco and Victa brands. It operates in over 100 countries on six continents. It operates through two segments: Engines and Products. Its Engines segment sells engines around the world, primarily to OEMs of lawn and garden equipment and other gasoline engine-powered equipment. Its Products segment designs, manufactures and markets a range of outdoor power equipment, job site products and related accessories.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Briggs&Stratton (BGG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.4
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 165.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 29.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 39.7%
Total Debt to Equity 39.7%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Return On Total Capital 7.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Equity 10.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 21.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.7%
EBITDA Margin 8.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Operating Margin 5.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Net Profit Margin 3.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Effective Tax Rate 28.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.6%
Payout Ratio 42.1%

BGG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BGG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1786 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Briggs&Stratton. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Briggs&Stratton. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BGG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BGG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Briggs&Stratton, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Briggs&Stratton.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BGG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BGG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.6% for Briggs&Stratton.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Briggs&Stratton. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BGG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BGG are equal to 25.1%.

Life of production assets of 10.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Briggs&Stratton operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BGG is equal to 16.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $559 million for Briggs&Stratton - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 42.964 million for Briggs&Stratton is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Briggs&Stratton at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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Financial statements of BGG
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