Intrinsic value of BG Staffing - BGSF

Previous Close

$25.07

  Intrinsic Value

$18.86

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-25%

Previous close

$25.07

 
Intrinsic value

$18.86

 
Up/down potential

-25%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of BGSF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.20
  3.38
  3.54
  3.69
  3.82
  3.94
  4.04
  4.14
  4.23
  4.30
  4.37
  4.44
  4.49
  4.54
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
Revenue, $m
  281
  291
  301
  312
  324
  337
  351
  365
  380
  397
  414
  433
  452
  473
  494
  517
  541
  567
  593
  622
  651
  683
  716
  750
  787
  825
  865
  908
  952
  999
Variable operating expenses, $m
  243
  251
  260
  269
  279
  290
  301
  314
  327
  340
  349
  365
  381
  399
  417
  436
  457
  478
  501
  525
  550
  576
  604
  633
  664
  696
  730
  766
  803
  843
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  36
Total operating expenses, $m
  262
  271
  280
  290
  300
  312
  323
  337
  350
  364
  373
  390
  406
  425
  443
  463
  485
  506
  530
  554
  580
  607
  635
  665
  697
  729
  764
  801
  839
  879
Operating income, $m
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  41
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
EBITDA, $m
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
Earnings before tax, $m
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  34
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
Tax expense, $m
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
Net income, $m
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  34
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  108
  111
  115
  120
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  250
  262
  274
  288
  302
  316
  332
  348
  365
  383
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  108
  111
  115
  120
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  250
  262
  274
  288
  302
  316
  332
  348
  365
  383
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.602
  2.622
  2.617
  2.600
  2.613
  2.612
  2.619
  2.607
  2.603
  2.612
  2.604
  2.608
  2.613
  2.613
  2.614
  2.611
  2.614
  2.613
  2.612
  2.613
  2.604
  2.607
  2.613
  2.604
  2.606
  2.611
  2.605
  2.609
  2.608
  2.608
Average production assets, $m
  25
  26
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  43
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
Working capital, $m
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
Total debt, $m
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  103
  108
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  159
  167
  177
  186
  196
  207
  218
Total liabilities, $m
  68
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  208
  218
  228
  240
Total equity, $m
  40
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  108
  112
  115
  120
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  158
  166
  173
  181
  190
  198
  208
  217
  227
  238
  249
  262
  275
  288
  302
  316
  332
  348
  364
  383
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.140
  1.160
  1.180
  1.200
  1.210
  1.230
  1.250
  1.270
  1.280
  1.300
  1.310
  1.330
  1.340
  1.360
  1.370
  1.390
  1.400
  1.410
  1.420
  1.430
  1.440
  1.460
  1.470
  1.480
  1.480
  1.490
  1.500
  1.510
  1.520
  1.520
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374
  0.374

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  34
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Funds from operations, $m
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  78
  82
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
Free cash flow, $m
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  78
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
Discount rate, %
  5.90
  6.20
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.53
  7.91
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.60
  11.13
  11.68
  12.27
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.44
  17.26
  18.12
  19.03
  19.98
  20.98
  22.03
  23.13
  24.29
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  15
  15
  14
  14
  13
  13
  12
  11
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

BG Staffing, Inc. (BG Staffing) is a provider of temporary staffing services. The Company provides temporary workers to a range of customers that are seeking to match their workforce requirements to their business needs. Its customers operate across a diverse set of industries. The Company's operations are organized into three segments: Commercial, Multifamily and Professional. The Company's temporary staffing services consist of on-demand or short-term staffing assignments, contract staffing, and on-site management administration. Short-term staffing services assist employers in dealing with employee demands caused by such factors as seasonality, fluctuations in customer demand, vacations, illnesses, parental leave, and special projects. The Company's contract staffing services place temporary employees with customers for time-periods of more than three months or for an indefinite time period.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  BG Staffing (BGSF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 31.1
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 5.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 60%
Total Debt to Equity 60%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Total Capital 11.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Return On Equity 21.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15%
Asset Turnover 3.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 23.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22%
EBITDA Margin 7.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Operating Margin 5.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Net Profit Margin 2.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Effective Tax Rate 36.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.3%
Payout Ratio 114.3%

BGSF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BGSF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $272.60005 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by BG Staffing. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of BG Staffing. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BGSF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.9%, whose default value for BGSF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of BG Staffing, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of BG Staffing.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BGSF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $19 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BGSF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.6% for BG Staffing.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for BG Staffing. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BGSF stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BGSF are equal to 8.8%.

Life of production assets of 7.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in BG Staffing operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BGSF is equal to 6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $39.134679 million for BG Staffing - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 10.089 million for BG Staffing is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of BG Staffing at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Kanye West Beefs With Burger King   [03:33PM  Entertainment Tonight Videos]
▶ How Much Of BG Staffing Inc (NYSEMKT:BGSF) Do Insiders Own?   [Nov-01-18 01:45PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ BG Staffing: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [09:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ Burger King parent delivers disappointing quarter   [10:39AM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Burger King looks to creep into your nightmares   [Oct-22-18 03:23PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ New Burger King Halloween-themed burger induces nightmares   [Oct-18-18 03:04PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Popular burger chains tested for antibiotics in beef   [Oct-17-18 04:46PM  CBS News Videos]
▶ BG Staffing, Inc. to Host Q3 Results Conference Call   [Oct-02-18 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ BG Staffing Promotes Beth A. Garvey to CEO and President   [Sep-25-18 08:55AM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] Arbys owner swallows up drive-in burger chain Sonic   [Sep-24-18 11:57PM  Financial Times]
▶ Top Ranked Income Stocks to Buy for August 29th   [Aug-29-18 10:50AM  Zacks]
▶ BG Staffing to Present at the Midwest IDEAS Conference   [Aug-17-18 08:55AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 5 Stocks to Buy on a Historic Job Growth Streak   [Aug-06-18 09:59AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Why Buying Papa John's Would Be a Mistake for Wendy's   [Aug-03-18 08:07AM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Restaurant Stocks to Sink Your Teeth Into   [Aug-01-18 04:34PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ BG Staffing, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Jul-27-18 02:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ 5 Must-See Earnings Charts to End the Week   [Jul-26-18 04:57PM  Zacks]
▶ BG Staffing, Inc. Declares $0.30 Per Share Cash Dividend   [Jul-25-18 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ BG Staffing, Inc. to Host Q2 Results Conference Call   [Jul-13-18 08:55AM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] Tim Hortons Tests Chinas Appetite for Canadian Coffee   [Jul-11-18 08:35PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Tim Hortons Tests China's Appetite for Canadian Coffee   [05:32AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ 5 Best Performing Stocks of June   [Jul-02-18 08:28AM  Zacks]
▶ McDonald's DIY Plan to Boost Sales   [Jun-22-18 03:00PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Burger King says sorry for Russian World Cup pregnancy ad   [Jun-20-18 04:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Polar Star Capital Partners Invests in Burger King Franchisee   [Jun-13-18 11:16AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ McDonalds Plans Corporate Job Cuts, Eliminating Layers   [Jun-07-18 08:56PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Video shows rats in bag of Burger King buns   [04:05AM  CBS MoneyWatch]

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