Intrinsic value of Bilibili Inc. - BILI

Previous Close

$14.46

  Intrinsic Value

$85.80

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+493%

Previous close

$14.46

 
Intrinsic value

$85.80

 
Up/down potential

+493%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of BILI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  597
  922
  1,379
  2,001
  2,823
  3,881
  5,209
  6,840
  8,801
  11,117
  13,804
  16,877
  20,342
  24,203
  28,459
  33,105
  38,134
  43,538
  49,309
  55,438
  61,917
  68,739
  75,899
  83,394
  91,222
  99,385
  107,886
  116,731
  125,928
  135,486
Variable operating expenses, $m
  405
  624
  932
  1,350
  1,904
  2,616
  3,511
  4,609
  5,930
  7,490
  9,297
  11,367
  13,700
  16,301
  19,167
  22,296
  25,683
  29,323
  33,209
  37,337
  41,701
  46,295
  51,118
  56,165
  61,438
  66,935
  72,661
  78,618
  84,812
  91,249
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  159
  163
  167
  170
  174
  178
  182
  186
  190
  194
  198
  203
  207
  212
  216
  221
  226
  231
  236
  241
  246
  252
  257
  263
  269
  275
  281
  287
  293
  300
Total operating expenses, $m
  564
  787
  1,099
  1,520
  2,078
  2,794
  3,693
  4,795
  6,120
  7,684
  9,495
  11,570
  13,907
  16,513
  19,383
  22,517
  25,909
  29,554
  33,445
  37,578
  41,947
  46,547
  51,375
  56,428
  61,707
  67,210
  72,942
  78,905
  85,105
  91,549
Operating income, $m
  33
  135
  281
  480
  745
  1,087
  1,516
  2,045
  2,681
  3,433
  4,309
  5,308
  6,435
  7,691
  9,076
  10,588
  12,225
  13,985
  15,864
  17,860
  19,970
  22,192
  24,524
  26,966
  29,516
  32,175
  34,945
  37,827
  40,823
  43,938
EBITDA, $m
  41
  147
  297
  502
  775
  1,126
  1,569
  2,113
  2,768
  3,542
  4,441
  5,469
  6,629
  7,922
  9,348
  10,904
  12,589
  14,401
  16,335
  18,389
  20,561
  22,849
  25,249
  27,762
  30,387
  33,125
  35,975
  38,942
  42,026
  45,232
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  -3
  19
  50
  93
  149
  221
  312
  424
  558
  717
  901
  1,111
  1,348
  1,613
  1,904
  2,222
  2,566
  2,936
  3,331
  3,751
  4,194
  4,661
  5,151
  5,664
  6,200
  6,759
  7,341
  7,946
  8,576
Earnings before tax, $m
  33
  139
  262
  430
  652
  937
  1,295
  1,732
  2,257
  2,875
  3,592
  4,407
  5,324
  6,343
  7,463
  8,684
  10,003
  11,419
  12,928
  14,529
  16,219
  17,998
  19,863
  21,815
  23,852
  25,975
  28,186
  30,486
  32,877
  35,362
Tax expense, $m
  9
  37
  71
  116
  176
  253
  350
  468
  609
  776
  970
  1,190
  1,437
  1,713
  2,015
  2,345
  2,701
  3,083
  3,491
  3,923
  4,379
  4,859
  5,363
  5,890
  6,440
  7,013
  7,610
  8,231
  8,877
  9,548
Net income, $m
  24
  101
  191
  314
  476
  684
  945
  1,265
  1,648
  2,098
  2,622
  3,217
  3,886
  4,630
  5,448
  6,339
  7,302
  8,336
  9,437
  10,606
  11,840
  13,138
  14,500
  15,925
  17,412
  18,962
  20,576
  22,255
  24,000
  25,814

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  841
  1,299
  1,942
  2,818
  3,976
  5,466
  7,337
  9,633
  12,396
  15,657
  19,443
  23,770
  28,651
  34,089
  40,083
  46,626
  53,709
  61,321
  69,450
  78,082
  87,207
  96,816
  106,900
  117,456
  128,482
  139,979
  151,953
  164,410
  177,363
  190,826
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  841
  1,299
  1,942
  2,818
  3,976
  5,466
  7,337
  9,633
  12,396
  15,657
  19,443
  23,770
  28,651
  34,089
  40,083
  46,626
  53,709
  61,321
  69,450
  78,082
  87,207
  96,816
  106,900
  117,456
  128,482
  139,979
  151,953
  164,410
  177,363
  190,826
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
Average production assets, $m
  76
  118
  177
  256
  361
  497
  667
  875
  1,127
  1,423
  1,767
  2,160
  2,604
  3,098
  3,643
  4,237
  4,881
  5,573
  6,312
  7,096
  7,925
  8,799
  9,715
  10,674
  11,676
  12,721
  13,809
  14,942
  16,119
  17,342
Working capital, $m
  -121
  -186
  -279
  -404
  -570
  -784
  -1,052
  -1,382
  -1,778
  -2,246
  -2,788
  -3,409
  -4,109
  -4,889
  -5,749
  -6,687
  -7,703
  -8,795
  -9,960
  -11,199
  -12,507
  -13,885
  -15,332
  -16,846
  -18,427
  -20,076
  -21,793
  -23,580
  -25,437
  -27,368
Total debt, $m
  -62
  351
  930
  1,718
  2,760
  4,101
  5,785
  7,852
  10,338
  13,273
  16,680
  20,575
  24,968
  29,862
  35,257
  41,145
  47,520
  54,371
  61,687
  69,456
  77,668
  86,316
  95,392
  104,893
  114,816
  125,163
  135,939
  147,151
  158,809
  170,925
Total liabilities, $m
  757
  1,169
  1,748
  2,536
  3,578
  4,919
  6,603
  8,670
  11,156
  14,091
  17,498
  21,393
  25,786
  30,680
  36,075
  41,964
  48,339
  55,189
  62,505
  70,274
  78,487
  87,134
  96,210
  105,711
  115,634
  125,981
  136,757
  147,969
  159,627
  171,743
Total equity, $m
  84
  130
  194
  282
  398
  547
  734
  963
  1,240
  1,566
  1,944
  2,377
  2,865
  3,409
  4,008
  4,663
  5,371
  6,132
  6,945
  7,808
  8,721
  9,682
  10,690
  11,746
  12,848
  13,998
  15,195
  16,441
  17,736
  19,083
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  841
  1,299
  1,942
  2,818
  3,976
  5,466
  7,337
  9,633
  12,396
  15,657
  19,442
  23,770
  28,651
  34,089
  40,083
  46,627
  53,710
  61,321
  69,450
  78,082
  87,208
  96,816
  106,900
  117,457
  128,482
  139,979
  151,952
  164,410
  177,363
  190,826
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -0.730
  2.700
  4.790
  6.100
  6.940
  7.500
  7.880
  8.150
  8.340
  8.480
  8.580
  8.660
  8.710
  8.760
  8.800
  8.820
  8.850
  8.870
  8.880
  8.900
  8.910
  8.920
  8.920
  8.930
  8.940
  8.940
  8.950
  8.950
  8.950
  8.960
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  24
  101
  191
  314
  476
  684
  945
  1,265
  1,648
  2,098
  2,622
  3,217
  3,886
  4,630
  5,448
  6,339
  7,302
  8,336
  9,437
  10,606
  11,840
  13,138
  14,500
  15,925
  17,412
  18,962
  20,576
  22,255
  24,000
  25,814
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  12
  16
  22
  30
  40
  53
  68
  87
  109
  132
  161
  194
  231
  272
  316
  364
  416
  471
  530
  591
  657
  725
  797
  871
  949
  1,031
  1,115
  1,203
  1,294
Funds from operations, $m
  32
  113
  207
  336
  506
  724
  998
  1,333
  1,735
  2,207
  2,754
  3,378
  4,081
  4,861
  5,720
  6,656
  7,667
  8,751
  9,908
  11,136
  12,432
  13,795
  15,225
  16,721
  18,283
  19,911
  21,606
  23,370
  25,203
  27,108
Change in working capital, $m
  -45
  -66
  -92
  -126
  -166
  -214
  -268
  -329
  -396
  -468
  -543
  -621
  -700
  -780
  -860
  -938
  -1,016
  -1,092
  -1,166
  -1,238
  -1,309
  -1,378
  -1,446
  -1,514
  -1,581
  -1,649
  -1,717
  -1,787
  -1,858
  -1,931
Cash from operations, $m
  78
  179
  300
  461
  672
  938
  1,266
  1,662
  2,131
  2,675
  3,297
  3,999
  4,781
  5,641
  6,580
  7,594
  8,683
  9,843
  11,074
  12,374
  13,740
  15,173
  16,671
  18,235
  19,864
  21,560
  23,324
  25,156
  27,061
  29,039
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -6
  -9
  -13
  -19
  -27
  -37
  -50
  -65
  -84
  -106
  -132
  -161
  -194
  -231
  -272
  -316
  -364
  -416
  -471
  -530
  -591
  -657
  -725
  -797
  -871
  -949
  -1,031
  -1,115
  -1,203
New CAPEX, $m
  -29
  -42
  -58
  -80
  -105
  -135
  -170
  -209
  -251
  -296
  -344
  -393
  -444
  -494
  -545
  -595
  -644
  -692
  -739
  -785
  -829
  -873
  -916
  -959
  -1,002
  -1,045
  -1,088
  -1,132
  -1,177
  -1,224
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -33
  -48
  -67
  -93
  -124
  -162
  -207
  -259
  -316
  -380
  -450
  -525
  -605
  -688
  -776
  -867
  -960
  -1,056
  -1,155
  -1,256
  -1,359
  -1,464
  -1,573
  -1,684
  -1,799
  -1,916
  -2,037
  -2,163
  -2,292
  -2,427
Free cash flow, $m
  45
  131
  232
  369
  548
  776
  1,059
  1,404
  1,814
  2,295
  2,847
  3,474
  4,176
  4,953
  5,804
  6,728
  7,723
  8,787
  9,920
  11,118
  12,381
  13,708
  15,098
  16,551
  18,066
  19,644
  21,286
  22,994
  24,769
  26,613
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -62
  412
  579
  788
  1,042
  1,341
  1,684
  2,067
  2,486
  2,935
  3,407
  3,895
  4,393
  4,894
  5,394
  5,889
  6,375
  6,851
  7,315
  7,769
  8,213
  8,648
  9,076
  9,500
  9,923
  10,347
  10,776
  11,212
  11,658
  12,117
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  353
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  291
  412
  579
  788
  1,042
  1,341
  1,684
  2,067
  2,486
  2,935
  3,407
  3,895
  4,393
  4,894
  5,394
  5,889
  6,375
  6,851
  7,315
  7,769
  8,213
  8,648
  9,076
  9,500
  9,923
  10,347
  10,776
  11,212
  11,658
  12,117
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  337
  543
  811
  1,157
  1,590
  2,117
  2,743
  3,471
  4,301
  5,230
  6,254
  7,369
  8,569
  9,847
  11,198
  12,616
  14,098
  15,638
  17,235
  18,887
  20,594
  22,356
  24,175
  26,051
  27,989
  29,991
  32,062
  34,205
  36,426
  38,729
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -377
  -46
  -64
  -88
  -116
  -149
  -187
  -230
  -276
  -326
  -379
  -433
  -488
  -544
  -599
  -654
  -708
  -761
  -813
  -863
  -913
  -961
  -1,008
  -1,056
  -1,103
  -1,150
  -1,197
  -1,246
  -1,295
  -1,346
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -40
  498
  747
  1,069
  1,474
  1,968
  2,556
  3,241
  4,024
  4,904
  5,875
  6,936
  8,081
  9,303
  10,599
  11,962
  13,389
  14,877
  16,422
  18,024
  19,682
  21,395
  23,166
  24,996
  26,887
  28,842
  30,865
  32,960
  35,131
  37,383
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -38
  456
  650
  881
  1,142
  1,428
  1,727
  2,026
  2,312
  2,571
  2,790
  2,960
  3,072
  3,123
  3,112
  3,040
  2,913
  2,740
  2,529
  2,290
  2,036
  1,775
  1,518
  1,273
  1,046
  841
  662
  510
  383
  281
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Bilibili Inc. (BILI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

BILI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BILI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $373 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Bilibili Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Bilibili Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BILI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BILI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Bilibili Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Bilibili Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BILI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 68.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $156 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BILI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Bilibili Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Bilibili Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BILI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BILI are equal to 12.8%.

Life of production assets of 13.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Bilibili Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BILI is equal to -20.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-293.1547763 million for Bilibili Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 306.788 million for Bilibili Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Bilibili Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.4 billion.

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