Intrinsic value of BJ's Restaurants - BJRI

Previous Close

$63.10

  Intrinsic Value

$17.69

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-72%

Previous close

$63.10

 
Intrinsic value

$17.69

 
Up/down potential

-72%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of BJRI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2018), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047
   2048

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.90
  4.01
  4.11
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.47
  4.53
  4.57
  4.62
  4.65
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.83
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
Revenue, $m
  1,072
  1,115
  1,161
  1,210
  1,262
  1,316
  1,375
  1,436
  1,501
  1,570
  1,642
  1,719
  1,799
  1,884
  1,974
  2,068
  2,167
  2,271
  2,381
  2,497
  2,618
  2,746
  2,880
  3,022
  3,170
  3,326
  3,490
  3,662
  3,843
  4,033
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,005
  1,045
  1,088
  1,134
  1,182
  1,233
  1,288
  1,345
  1,406
  1,471
  1,538
  1,610
  1,685
  1,765
  1,848
  1,937
  2,029
  2,127
  2,230
  2,338
  2,452
  2,572
  2,697
  2,830
  2,969
  3,115
  3,268
  3,430
  3,599
  3,777
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,005
  1,045
  1,088
  1,134
  1,182
  1,233
  1,288
  1,345
  1,406
  1,471
  1,538
  1,610
  1,685
  1,765
  1,848
  1,937
  2,029
  2,127
  2,230
  2,338
  2,452
  2,572
  2,697
  2,830
  2,969
  3,115
  3,268
  3,430
  3,599
  3,777
Operating income, $m
  68
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  138
  144
  151
  159
  166
  174
  183
  192
  201
  211
  222
  232
  244
  256
EBITDA, $m
  130
  136
  141
  147
  154
  160
  167
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  240
  252
  264
  276
  290
  304
  319
  334
  350
  368
  386
  405
  425
  446
  468
  491
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
Earnings before tax, $m
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  72
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  176
  185
Tax expense, $m
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
Net income, $m
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  712
  741
  771
  803
  838
  874
  913
  954
  997
  1,042
  1,090
  1,141
  1,195
  1,251
  1,311
  1,373
  1,439
  1,508
  1,581
  1,658
  1,739
  1,823
  1,913
  2,006
  2,105
  2,208
  2,317
  2,432
  2,552
  2,678
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  712
  741
  771
  803
  838
  874
  913
  954
  997
  1,042
  1,090
  1,141
  1,195
  1,251
  1,311
  1,373
  1,439
  1,508
  1,581
  1,658
  1,739
  1,823
  1,913
  2,006
  2,105
  2,208
  2,317
  2,432
  2,552
  2,678
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.506
  1.505
  1.506
  1.507
  1.506
  1.506
  1.506
  1.505
  1.506
  1.507
  1.506
  1.507
  1.505
  1.506
  1.506
  1.506
  1.506
  1.506
  1.506
  1.506
  1.505
  1.506
  1.505
  1.506
  1.506
  1.506
  1.506
  1.506
  1.506
  1.506
Average production assets, $m
  624
  649
  676
  704
  734
  766
  800
  836
  874
  914
  956
  1,000
  1,047
  1,097
  1,149
  1,203
  1,261
  1,322
  1,386
  1,453
  1,524
  1,598
  1,676
  1,759
  1,845
  1,936
  2,031
  2,131
  2,237
  2,347
Working capital, $m
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
Total debt, $m
  180
  198
  217
  237
  259
  281
  305
  331
  358
  386
  416
  447
  481
  516
  553
  592
  633
  676
  721
  769
  819
  872
  927
  985
  1,047
  1,111
  1,179
  1,250
  1,325
  1,403
Total liabilities, $m
  443
  461
  480
  500
  521
  544
  568
  593
  620
  648
  678
  710
  743
  778
  815
  854
  895
  938
  983
  1,031
  1,081
  1,134
  1,190
  1,248
  1,309
  1,374
  1,441
  1,513
  1,587
  1,666
Total equity, $m
  269
  280
  291
  304
  317
  330
  345
  360
  377
  394
  412
  431
  452
  473
  495
  519
  544
  570
  598
  627
  657
  689
  723
  758
  796
  835
  876
  919
  965
  1,012
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  712
  741
  771
  804
  838
  874
  913
  953
  997
  1,042
  1,090
  1,141
  1,195
  1,251
  1,310
  1,373
  1,439
  1,508
  1,581
  1,658
  1,738
  1,823
  1,913
  2,006
  2,105
  2,209
  2,317
  2,432
  2,552
  2,678
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.670
  0.710
  0.740
  0.780
  0.820
  0.850
  0.880
  0.920
  0.950
  0.980
  1.010
  1.040
  1.060
  1.090
  1.120
  1.140
  1.160
  1.190
  1.210
  1.230
  1.250
  1.260
  1.280
  1.300
  1.320
  1.330
  1.350
  1.360
  1.370
  1.390
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378
  0.378

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  139
  145
  152
  160
  168
  176
  184
  194
  203
  213
  224
  235
Funds from operations, $m
  106
  110
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  213
  222
  233
  243
  255
  267
  279
  293
  306
  321
  336
  353
  369
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  106
  110
  114
  119
  123
  128
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  172
  179
  187
  196
  205
  214
  224
  234
  245
  257
  269
  281
  295
  309
  323
  339
  355
  372
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -224
New CAPEX, $m
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -84
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -226
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -303
  -318
  -335
Free cash flow, $m
  23
  23
  23
  23
  23
  23
  23
  23
  24
  24
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  39
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  116
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
Cash available for distribution, $m
  29
  30
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  28
  27
  26
  25
  24
  23
  22
  21
  20
  18
  17
  16
  14
  13
  12
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

BJ's Restaurants, Inc. owns and operates restaurants. The Company segment includes casual dining company-owned restaurants. Each of its restaurants is operated either as a BJ's Restaurant & Brewhouse, a BJ's Restaurant & Brewery, a BJ's Pizza & Grill or a BJ's Grill restaurant. The Company's restaurants offer craft beers and other beers, as well as a selection of appetizers, entrees, pastas, burgers and sandwiches, specialty salads, and desserts, including its warm pizza cookie dessert, the Pizookie. As of February 27, 2017, the Company owned and operated 189 restaurants located in 24 states of Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Washington.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  BJ's Restaurants (BJRI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 30.6
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 5.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 48.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 26.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 53.8%
Total Debt to Equity 53.8%
Interest Coverage 62
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Total Capital 11%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Return On Equity 15.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.1%
EBITDA Margin 12.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Operating Margin 6.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Net Profit Margin 4.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Effective Tax Rate 24.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

BJRI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BJRI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1032 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by BJ's Restaurants. The default revenue input number comes from 2018 income statement of BJ's Restaurants. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BJRI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BJRI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of BJ's Restaurants, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of BJ's Restaurants.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BJRI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BJRI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for BJ's Restaurants.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for BJ's Restaurants. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BJRI stock is equal to 0.7%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BJRI are equal to 58.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in BJ's Restaurants operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BJRI is equal to -1.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $259 million for BJ's Restaurants - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 21 million for BJ's Restaurants is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of BJ's Restaurants at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ The 5 Best Restaurant Stocks of 2018 (So Far)   [Jul-05-18 07:00PM  Motley Fool]
▶ BJs Restaurants Opens 200th Restaurant in Colonie, New York   [Jun-12-18 01:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ BJs Restaurants Opens in Hagerstown, Maryland   [May-22-18 01:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why BJ's Restaurants Inc. Stock Jumped 24% Last Month   [May-04-18 04:58PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why BJ's Restaurants, Inc. Stock Popped Today   [Apr-27-18 03:39PM  Motley Fool]
▶ BJ's Restaurants: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-26-18 05:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ What Is BJs Restaurants Incs (NASDAQ:BJRI) Share Price Doing?   [Mar-29-18 08:55PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Which Casual Dining Chain Has the Most Loyal Customers?   [Mar-27-18 07:03AM  Motley Fool]
▶ BJs Restaurants Opens in Warwick, Rhode Island   [Mar-20-18 01:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ BJs Restaurants, Inc. Celebrates Pi Day with a $3.14 Pizza!   [Mar-13-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ BJ's Restaurants Q4 Earnings Preview   [08:50AM  Benzinga]
▶ Fast Casual in 2018, Part 1: More M&A on the Horizon?   [Feb-05-18 05:53PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ McDonald's to open about 1,000 new stores   [Jan-31-18 01:40PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ BJs Restaurants Opens in Taylor, Michigan   [Dec-19-17 03:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ BJs Restaurants Opens in Bowie, Maryland   [Nov-21-17 01:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ BJ's Restaurants misses Street 3Q forecasts   [Oct-26-17 04:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ BJs Restaurants Opens in Columbia, South Carolina   [Sep-05-17 04:46PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ BJ's Restaurants launches alcohol delivery in California   [Aug-21-17 09:19AM  MarketWatch]
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