Intrinsic value of Bellicum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. - BLCM

Previous Close

$2.22

  Intrinsic Value

$0.27

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-88%

Previous close

$2.22

 
Intrinsic value

$0.27

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of BLCM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Variable operating expenses, $m
  97
  99
  102
  104
  107
  111
  115
  119
  123
  127
  130
  136
  141
  147
  154
  160
  167
  175
  183
  191
  200
  210
  219
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  291
  305
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  74
  75
  77
  79
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  91
  93
  96
  98
  100
  102
  104
  107
  109
  111
  114
  116
  119
  121
  124
  127
  130
  132
  135
  138
Total operating expenses, $m
  171
  174
  179
  183
  187
  193
  199
  205
  211
  217
  221
  229
  237
  245
  254
  262
  271
  282
  292
  302
  314
  326
  338
  351
  365
  379
  394
  409
  426
  443
Operating income, $m
  -169
  -173
  -177
  -182
  -187
  -192
  -197
  -203
  -209
  -216
  -220
  -228
  -235
  -243
  -252
  -261
  -270
  -280
  -290
  -301
  -312
  -324
  -336
  -349
  -362
  -376
  -391
  -407
  -423
  -440
EBITDA, $m
  -163
  -166
  -170
  -175
  -179
  -184
  -189
  -195
  -201
  -207
  -214
  -221
  -228
  -236
  -244
  -253
  -261
  -271
  -281
  -291
  -302
  -313
  -325
  -337
  -350
  -364
  -378
  -393
  -408
  -424
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  4
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Earnings before tax, $m
  -174
  -176
  -180
  -184
  -189
  -195
  -200
  -206
  -212
  -219
  -224
  -232
  -239
  -248
  -256
  -266
  -275
  -285
  -296
  -307
  -319
  -331
  -343
  -357
  -371
  -385
  -401
  -417
  -433
  -451
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -174
  -176
  -180
  -184
  -189
  -195
  -200
  -206
  -212
  -219
  -224
  -232
  -239
  -248
  -256
  -266
  -275
  -285
  -296
  -307
  -319
  -331
  -343
  -357
  -371
  -385
  -401
  -417
  -433
  -451

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.024
  0.024
  0.023
  0.023
  0.022
  0.021
  0.021
  0.020
  0.019
  0.019
  0.018
  0.017
  0.033
  0.032
  0.030
  0.029
  0.028
  0.027
  0.025
  0.024
  0.023
  0.022
  0.021
  0.020
  0.029
  0.028
  0.026
  0.025
  0.024
  0.023
Average production assets, $m
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
Working capital, $m
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
Total debt, $m
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  96
  101
Total liabilities, $m
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  113
  118
Total equity, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  63
  67
  69
  72
  76
  79
  82
  87
  90
  94
  99
  103
  109
  113
  119
  126
  131
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.830
  4.920
  5.020
  5.130
  5.250
  5.360
  5.480
  5.610
  5.730
  5.850
  5.970
  6.090
  6.200
  6.320
  6.430
  6.530
  6.640
  6.740
  6.840
  6.930
  7.030
  7.110
  7.200
  7.280
  7.360
  7.430
  7.510
  7.570
  7.640
  7.700
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -174
  -176
  -180
  -184
  -189
  -195
  -200
  -206
  -212
  -219
  -224
  -232
  -239
  -248
  -256
  -266
  -275
  -285
  -296
  -307
  -319
  -331
  -343
  -357
  -371
  -385
  -401
  -417
  -433
  -451
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
Funds from operations, $m
  -167
  -169
  -173
  -177
  -182
  -187
  -192
  -198
  -204
  -211
  -218
  -225
  -232
  -240
  -249
  -258
  -267
  -276
  -287
  -297
  -308
  -320
  -332
  -345
  -359
  -373
  -387
  -403
  -419
  -436
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  -166
  -168
  -172
  -177
  -181
  -186
  -192
  -197
  -203
  -210
  -217
  -224
  -231
  -239
  -247
  -256
  -265
  -275
  -285
  -296
  -307
  -318
  -330
  -343
  -356
  -370
  -385
  -400
  -416
  -433
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -19
Free cash flow, $m
  -172
  -173
  -178
  -182
  -187
  -192
  -198
  -204
  -210
  -217
  -224
  -232
  -240
  -248
  -256
  -266
  -275
  -285
  -296
  -307
  -319
  -331
  -343
  -357
  -371
  -385
  -401
  -417
  -434
  -451
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -16
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  191
  176
  180
  184
  189
  195
  200
  206
  213
  219
  224
  232
  240
  248
  257
  266
  276
  286
  296
  307
  319
  331
  344
  357
  371
  386
  401
  417
  434
  452
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  175
  177
  181
  185
  190
  196
  201
  208
  215
  221
  226
  234
  242
  250
  259
  269
  279
  289
  299
  310
  322
  335
  348
  361
  375
  390
  406
  422
  439
  457
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -191
  -176
  -180
  -184
  -189
  -195
  -200
  -206
  -213
  -219
  -224
  -232
  -240
  -248
  -257
  -266
  -276
  -286
  -296
  -307
  -319
  -331
  -344
  -357
  -371
  -386
  -401
  -417
  -434
  -452
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  82
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -106
  -173
  -177
  -181
  -186
  -191
  -197
  -202
  -209
  -215
  -222
  -230
  -237
  -245
  -254
  -263
  -272
  -282
  -293
  -304
  -315
  -327
  -340
  -353
  -367
  -381
  -396
  -412
  -428
  -446
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -101
  -158
  -154
  -149
  -144
  -139
  -133
  -127
  -120
  -113
  -106
  -98
  -90
  -82
  -75
  -67
  -59
  -52
  -45
  -39
  -33
  -27
  -22
  -18
  -14
  -11
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  1.6
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
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Bellicum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company is focused on discovering and developing cellular immunotherapies for various forms of cancer, including hematological cancers and solid tumors, as well as orphan inherited blood disorders. The Company uses its chemical induction of dimerization (CID) technology platform to engineer and then control components of the immune system. The Company is developing next-generation product candidates in the areas of cellular immunotherapy, including hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), chimeric antigen receptors (CAR) T cells therapy and T-cell receptor (TCR) cell therapies. The Company's product candidates include BPX-501, BPX-601 and BPX-701. The Company's CID-based technologies include CaspaCIDe and GoCAR-T. It is evaluating BPX-501 in various Phase I/II clinical trials in adults and pediatric patients with leukemias, lymphomas and genetic blood diseases in the United States and Europe.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Bellicum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BLCM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.9
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -1.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 40%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 52
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 18.6%
Total Debt to Equity 20.6%
Interest Coverage -68
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -46.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -50.6%
Return On Total Capital -51.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -53.9%
Return On Equity -55.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -55.4%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1350%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -966.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1400%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1400%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

BLCM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BLCM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Bellicum Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Bellicum Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BLCM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BLCM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Bellicum Pharmaceuticals, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Bellicum Pharmaceuticals, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BLCM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 9500%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $72 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BLCM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 11.8% for Bellicum Pharmaceuticals, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Bellicum Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BLCM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BLCM are equal to 2341%.

Life of production assets of 3.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Bellicum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BLCM is equal to -1844.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $68.478 million for Bellicum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 44.320 million for Bellicum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Bellicum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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