Intrinsic value of BioLife Solutions, Inc. - BLFS

Previous Close

$19.45

  Intrinsic Value

$0.12

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-99%

Previous close

$19.45

 
Intrinsic value

$0.12

 
Up/down potential

-99%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of BLFS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  18
  27
  41
  59
  83
  114
  154
  202
  260
  328
  407
  498
  600
  714
  839
  976
  1,125
  1,284
  1,454
  1,635
  1,826
  2,027
  2,238
  2,459
  2,690
  2,931
  3,182
  3,442
  3,714
  3,996
Variable operating expenses, $m
  27
  42
  63
  91
  128
  176
  236
  310
  399
  504
  625
  764
  921
  1,096
  1,289
  1,499
  1,727
  1,972
  2,233
  2,511
  2,805
  3,114
  3,438
  3,777
  4,132
  4,502
  4,887
  5,287
  5,704
  6,137
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  27
  42
  63
  91
  128
  176
  236
  310
  399
  504
  625
  764
  921
  1,096
  1,289
  1,499
  1,727
  1,972
  2,233
  2,511
  2,805
  3,114
  3,438
  3,777
  4,132
  4,502
  4,887
  5,287
  5,704
  6,137
Operating income, $m
  -10
  -15
  -22
  -32
  -45
  -61
  -82
  -108
  -139
  -176
  -218
  -267
  -321
  -383
  -450
  -523
  -603
  -688
  -779
  -876
  -979
  -1,086
  -1,200
  -1,318
  -1,442
  -1,571
  -1,705
  -1,845
  -1,990
  -2,141
EBITDA, $m
  -9
  -14
  -21
  -30
  -43
  -59
  -79
  -104
  -134
  -169
  -210
  -256
  -309
  -368
  -432
  -503
  -579
  -661
  -749
  -842
  -941
  -1,044
  -1,153
  -1,267
  -1,386
  -1,510
  -1,639
  -1,773
  -1,913
  -2,058
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  21
  24
  28
  32
  36
  41
  45
  50
  56
  61
  67
  73
  79
  86
  92
Earnings before tax, $m
  -10
  -15
  -22
  -32
  -46
  -63
  -85
  -112
  -144
  -182
  -226
  -277
  -334
  -397
  -467
  -544
  -627
  -716
  -811
  -912
  -1,019
  -1,132
  -1,250
  -1,374
  -1,503
  -1,638
  -1,778
  -1,924
  -2,076
  -2,234
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -10
  -15
  -22
  -32
  -46
  -63
  -85
  -112
  -144
  -182
  -226
  -277
  -334
  -397
  -467
  -544
  -627
  -716
  -811
  -912
  -1,019
  -1,132
  -1,250
  -1,374
  -1,503
  -1,638
  -1,778
  -1,924
  -2,076
  -2,234

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  11
  17
  26
  38
  53
  73
  98
  128
  165
  208
  259
  316
  381
  454
  534
  621
  715
  816
  924
  1,039
  1,161
  1,289
  1,423
  1,563
  1,710
  1,863
  2,023
  2,188
  2,361
  2,540
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  11
  17
  26
  38
  53
  73
  98
  128
  165
  208
  259
  316
  381
  454
  534
  621
  715
  816
  924
  1,039
  1,161
  1,289
  1,423
  1,563
  1,710
  1,863
  2,023
  2,188
  2,361
  2,540
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.636
  1.588
  1.577
  1.553
  1.566
  1.562
  1.571
  1.578
  1.576
  1.577
  1.571
  1.576
  1.575
  1.573
  1.571
  1.572
  1.573
  1.574
  1.574
  1.574
  1.573
  1.573
  1.573
  1.573
  1.573
  1.573
  1.573
  1.573
  1.573
  1.573
Average production assets, $m
  2
  3
  4
  6
  9
  12
  16
  21
  27
  34
  42
  52
  62
  74
  87
  102
  117
  134
  151
  170
  190
  211
  233
  256
  280
  305
  331
  358
  386
  416
Working capital, $m
  3
  4
  7
  9
  13
  18
  25
  32
  42
  52
  65
  80
  96
  114
  134
  156
  180
  205
  233
  262
  292
  324
  358
  393
  430
  469
  509
  551
  594
  639
Total debt, $m
  1
  3
  6
  9
  13
  19
  27
  36
  46
  59
  74
  91
  110
  131
  154
  180
  207
  237
  269
  302
  338
  376
  415
  456
  499
  544
  591
  639
  690
  742
Total liabilities, $m
  3
  5
  8
  11
  16
  21
  29
  38
  48
  61
  76
  93
  112
  133
  156
  182
  209
  239
  271
  305
  340
  378
  417
  458
  501
  546
  593
  641
  692
  744
Total equity, $m
  8
  12
  18
  27
  37
  51
  69
  91
  117
  147
  183
  224
  270
  321
  377
  439
  505
  577
  654
  735
  821
  911
  1,006
  1,105
  1,209
  1,317
  1,430
  1,547
  1,669
  1,796
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  11
  17
  26
  38
  53
  72
  98
  129
  165
  208
  259
  317
  382
  454
  533
  621
  714
  816
  925
  1,040
  1,161
  1,289
  1,423
  1,563
  1,710
  1,863
  2,023
  2,188
  2,361
  2,540
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.160
  0.250
  0.300
  0.340
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707
  0.707

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -10
  -15
  -22
  -32
  -46
  -63
  -85
  -112
  -144
  -182
  -226
  -277
  -334
  -397
  -467
  -544
  -627
  -716
  -811
  -912
  -1,019
  -1,132
  -1,250
  -1,374
  -1,503
  -1,638
  -1,778
  -1,924
  -2,076
  -2,234
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  12
  15
  17
  20
  23
  27
  30
  34
  38
  42
  47
  51
  56
  61
  66
  72
  77
  83
Funds from operations, $m
  -9
  -14
  -21
  -31
  -44
  -61
  -82
  -107
  -138
  -175
  -218
  -266
  -321
  -382
  -450
  -524
  -603
  -689
  -781
  -878
  -981
  -1,090
  -1,203
  -1,322
  -1,447
  -1,577
  -1,712
  -1,852
  -1,999
  -2,151
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
Cash from operations, $m
  -10
  -16
  -24
  -34
  -48
  -66
  -88
  -115
  -148
  -186
  -230
  -281
  -338
  -401
  -470
  -545
  -627
  -715
  -808
  -907
  -1,012
  -1,122
  -1,237
  -1,358
  -1,484
  -1,615
  -1,752
  -1,894
  -2,042
  -2,196
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -72
  -77
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -17
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -49
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -100
  -106
Free cash flow, $m
  -11
  -17
  -25
  -37
  -52
  -71
  -94
  -123
  -158
  -198
  -245
  -299
  -359
  -425
  -498
  -577
  -663
  -755
  -852
  -956
  -1,066
  -1,181
  -1,301
  -1,427
  -1,559
  -1,696
  -1,839
  -1,987
  -2,142
  -2,302
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1
  2
  3
  3
  5
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  13
  19
  28
  41
  57
  77
  103
  133
  170
  213
  262
  317
  380
  448
  524
  605
  693
  788
  888
  993
  1,105
  1,222
  1,345
  1,473
  1,607
  1,746
  1,891
  2,041
  2,198
  2,360
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  14
  21
  31
  44
  62
  83
  110
  142
  181
  226
  277
  334
  399
  469
  547
  631
  721
  818
  920
  1,027
  1,141
  1,259
  1,384
  1,514
  1,650
  1,791
  1,938
  2,090
  2,249
  2,413
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  4
  5
  7
  10
  12
  15
  19
  23
  27
  31
  36
  40
  45
  49
  54
  58
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -13
  -19
  -28
  -41
  -57
  -77
  -103
  -133
  -170
  -213
  -262
  -317
  -380
  -448
  -524
  -605
  -693
  -788
  -888
  -993
  -1,105
  -1,222
  -1,345
  -1,473
  -1,607
  -1,746
  -1,891
  -2,041
  -2,198
  -2,360
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -5
  -15
  -23
  -33
  -47
  -65
  -87
  -114
  -147
  -186
  -231
  -282
  -339
  -404
  -474
  -552
  -635
  -725
  -821
  -922
  -1,030
  -1,143
  -1,262
  -1,386
  -1,516
  -1,651
  -1,792
  -1,939
  -2,091
  -2,250
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -4
  -14
  -20
  -28
  -37
  -47
  -59
  -71
  -85
  -97
  -110
  -120
  -129
  -136
  -139
  -140
  -138
  -134
  -126
  -117
  -107
  -95
  -83
  -71
  -59
  -48
  -38
  -30
  -23
  -17
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  79.8
  64.3
  52.2
  42.7
  35.1
  29.1
  24.3
  20.3
  17.1
  14.5
  12.3
  10.5
  9.0
  7.7
  6.6
  5.7
  4.9
  4.3
  3.7
  3.2
  2.8
  2.4
  2.1
  1.8
  1.6
  1.4
  1.2
  1.1
  0.9
  0.8

BioLife Solutions, Inc. (BioLife) is engaged in the developing, manufacturing and marketing a portfolio of biopreservation tools and services for cells, tissues and organs, including clinical grade cell and tissue hypothermic storage and cryopreservation freeze media and a related cloud hosted biologistics cold chain management application for shippers. The Company's product offerings include hypothermic storage and cryopreservation freeze media products for cells, tissues, and organs; generic blood stem cell freezing and cell thawing media products; custom product formulation and custom packaging services; cold chain logistics services incorporating precision thermal packaging products and cloud-hosted Web applications, and contract aseptic manufacturing formulation, fill and finish services of liquid media products. Its products include HypoThermosol FRS, CryoStor, BloodStor, Cell Thawing Media, PrepaStor and biologistex cold-chain management service.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  BioLife Solutions, Inc. (BLFS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -35.7
Price to Sales 31.3
Price to Book 83.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -62.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -50
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 33.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 100%
Total Debt to Equity 100%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -70%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -43.4%
Return On Total Capital -93.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -63.8%
Return On Equity -116.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 148.4%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 62.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.7%
EBITDA Margin -100%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -77.8%
Operating Margin -62.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -65.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -100%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -77.8%
Net Profit Margin -87.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -68.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

BLFS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BLFS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $11 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by BioLife Solutions, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of BioLife Solutions, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BLFS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BLFS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of BioLife Solutions, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of BioLife Solutions, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BLFS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 154.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BLFS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 13.4% for BioLife Solutions, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for BioLife Solutions, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BLFS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BLFS are equal to 10.4%.

Life of production assets of 3.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in BioLife Solutions, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BLFS is equal to 16%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $10.092586 million for BioLife Solutions, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 18.500 million for BioLife Solutions, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of BioLife Solutions, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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