Intrinsic value of Blackbaud - BLKB

Previous Close

$70.98

  Intrinsic Value

$97.52

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+37%

Previous close

$70.98

 
Intrinsic value

$97.52

 
Up/down potential

+37%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of BLKB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.50
  10.85
  10.27
  9.74
  9.26
  8.84
  8.45
  8.11
  7.80
  7.52
  7.27
  7.04
  6.84
  6.65
  6.49
  6.34
  6.20
  6.08
  5.98
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
Revenue, $m
  879
  974
  1,074
  1,179
  1,288
  1,402
  1,521
  1,644
  1,772
  1,905
  2,044
  2,188
  2,337
  2,493
  2,654
  2,823
  2,998
  3,180
  3,370
  3,568
  3,775
  3,990
  4,215
  4,451
  4,696
  4,953
  5,221
  5,502
  5,796
  6,103
Variable operating expenses, $m
  794
  870
  950
  1,034
  1,122
  1,213
  1,308
  1,407
  1,509
  1,616
  1,637
  1,752
  1,872
  1,997
  2,126
  2,261
  2,401
  2,547
  2,699
  2,858
  3,023
  3,196
  3,376
  3,565
  3,761
  3,967
  4,182
  4,407
  4,642
  4,889
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  794
  870
  950
  1,034
  1,122
  1,213
  1,308
  1,407
  1,509
  1,616
  1,637
  1,752
  1,872
  1,997
  2,126
  2,261
  2,401
  2,547
  2,699
  2,858
  3,023
  3,196
  3,376
  3,565
  3,761
  3,967
  4,182
  4,407
  4,642
  4,889
Operating income, $m
  85
  104
  124
  145
  167
  189
  213
  237
  263
  289
  407
  435
  465
  496
  528
  562
  597
  633
  671
  710
  751
  794
  839
  886
  935
  986
  1,039
  1,095
  1,154
  1,215
EBITDA, $m
  219
  242
  267
  293
  320
  349
  378
  409
  441
  474
  508
  544
  581
  620
  660
  702
  745
  791
  838
  887
  938
  992
  1,048
  1,106
  1,168
  1,231
  1,298
  1,368
  1,441
  1,517
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  24
  33
  42
  52
  63
  74
  85
  97
  110
  122
  136
  150
  164
  179
  195
  211
  228
  245
  263
  283
  302
  323
  345
  367
  391
  415
  441
  468
  496
  526
Earnings before tax, $m
  61
  71
  82
  92
  104
  115
  127
  140
  153
  167
  271
  286
  301
  317
  334
  351
  369
  388
  407
  428
  449
  471
  494
  519
  544
  570
  598
  627
  657
  689
Tax expense, $m
  17
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  186
Net income, $m
  45
  52
  60
  67
  76
  84
  93
  102
  112
  122
  198
  209
  220
  232
  244
  256
  269
  283
  297
  312
  328
  344
  361
  379
  397
  416
  437
  458
  480
  503

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,007
  2,224
  2,453
  2,692
  2,941
  3,201
  3,472
  3,753
  4,046
  4,350
  4,666
  4,995
  5,336
  5,691
  6,060
  6,444
  6,844
  7,260
  7,694
  8,147
  8,618
  9,111
  9,624
  10,161
  10,722
  11,308
  11,921
  12,562
  13,233
  13,935
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,007
  2,224
  2,453
  2,692
  2,941
  3,201
  3,472
  3,753
  4,046
  4,350
  4,666
  4,995
  5,336
  5,691
  6,060
  6,444
  6,844
  7,260
  7,694
  8,147
  8,618
  9,111
  9,624
  10,161
  10,722
  11,308
  11,921
  12,562
  13,233
  13,935
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
Average production assets, $m
  505
  560
  618
  678
  741
  806
  874
  945
  1,019
  1,096
  1,175
  1,258
  1,344
  1,433
  1,526
  1,623
  1,724
  1,829
  1,938
  2,052
  2,171
  2,294
  2,424
  2,559
  2,700
  2,848
  3,002
  3,164
  3,333
  3,509
Working capital, $m
  -900
  -998
  -1,100
  -1,207
  -1,319
  -1,436
  -1,557
  -1,683
  -1,815
  -1,951
  -2,093
  -2,240
  -2,393
  -2,552
  -2,718
  -2,890
  -3,070
  -3,256
  -3,451
  -3,654
  -3,865
  -4,086
  -4,317
  -4,557
  -4,809
  -5,072
  -5,347
  -5,634
  -5,935
  -6,250
Total debt, $m
  608
  785
  971
  1,165
  1,368
  1,579
  1,799
  2,028
  2,266
  2,513
  2,770
  3,037
  3,315
  3,603
  3,904
  4,216
  4,541
  4,879
  5,232
  5,600
  5,983
  6,384
  6,801
  7,238
  7,693
  8,170
  8,668
  9,189
  9,735
  10,306
Total liabilities, $m
  1,631
  1,809
  1,994
  2,188
  2,391
  2,602
  2,822
  3,051
  3,289
  3,537
  3,794
  4,061
  4,338
  4,627
  4,927
  5,239
  5,564
  5,903
  6,255
  6,623
  7,007
  7,407
  7,825
  8,261
  8,717
  9,193
  9,692
  10,213
  10,758
  11,329
Total equity, $m
  375
  416
  459
  503
  550
  599
  649
  702
  757
  813
  873
  934
  998
  1,064
  1,133
  1,205
  1,280
  1,358
  1,439
  1,523
  1,612
  1,704
  1,800
  1,900
  2,005
  2,115
  2,229
  2,349
  2,475
  2,606
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,006
  2,225
  2,453
  2,691
  2,941
  3,201
  3,471
  3,753
  4,046
  4,350
  4,667
  4,995
  5,336
  5,691
  6,060
  6,444
  6,844
  7,261
  7,694
  8,146
  8,619
  9,111
  9,625
  10,161
  10,722
  11,308
  11,921
  12,562
  13,233
  13,935
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.620
  1.890
  2.120
  2.310
  2.490
  2.640
  2.770
  2.890
  3.000
  3.090
  3.170
  3.250
  3.320
  3.390
  3.440
  3.500
  3.550
  3.590
  3.640
  3.680
  3.710
  3.750
  3.780
  3.810
  3.840
  3.860
  3.890
  3.910
  3.930
  3.950
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  45
  52
  60
  67
  76
  84
  93
  102
  112
  122
  198
  209
  220
  232
  244
  256
  269
  283
  297
  312
  328
  344
  361
  379
  397
  416
  437
  458
  480
  503
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  133
  138
  143
  148
  154
  159
  165
  171
  178
  184
  101
  108
  116
  124
  132
  140
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  198
  209
  221
  233
  246
  259
  273
  287
  303
Funds from operations, $m
  178
  190
  203
  216
  229
  244
  258
  274
  290
  306
  299
  317
  336
  355
  375
  396
  418
  441
  464
  489
  515
  542
  570
  599
  630
  662
  695
  730
  767
  806
Change in working capital, $m
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -172
  -179
  -187
  -195
  -203
  -212
  -221
  -230
  -241
  -251
  -263
  -275
  -288
  -301
  -315
Cash from operations, $m
  271
  288
  305
  323
  341
  360
  380
  400
  421
  443
  441
  464
  489
  514
  541
  568
  597
  627
  659
  692
  726
  763
  800
  840
  881
  925
  970
  1,018
  1,068
  1,121
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -39
  -44
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -64
  -69
  -75
  -81
  -88
  -94
  -101
  -108
  -116
  -124
  -132
  -140
  -149
  -158
  -167
  -177
  -187
  -198
  -209
  -221
  -233
  -246
  -259
  -273
  -287
New CAPEX, $m
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -91
  -99
  -106
  -113
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -146
  -155
  -165
  -174
  -184
  -194
  -205
  -217
  -229
  -241
  -254
  -267
  -281
  -296
  -311
  -327
  -344
  -362
  -381
  -400
  -420
  -442
  -464
Free cash flow, $m
  180
  189
  199
  209
  220
  231
  242
  254
  266
  278
  267
  280
  294
  309
  324
  340
  357
  374
  392
  411
  431
  451
  473
  496
  519
  544
  570
  598
  626
  656
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  170
  177
  186
  194
  203
  211
  220
  229
  238
  247
  257
  267
  278
  289
  300
  312
  325
  339
  353
  368
  383
  400
  418
  436
  456
  477
  498
  521
  545
  571
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  170
  177
  186
  194
  203
  211
  220
  229
  238
  247
  257
  267
  278
  289
  300
  312
  325
  339
  353
  368
  383
  400
  418
  436
  456
  477
  498
  521
  545
  571
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  350
  366
  385
  404
  423
  442
  462
  483
  504
  526
  524
  547
  572
  598
  624
  652
  682
  713
  745
  779
  814
  852
  891
  932
  975
  1,021
  1,069
  1,119
  1,172
  1,227
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -131
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  311
  326
  342
  359
  376
  394
  411
  430
  449
  469
  465
  486
  508
  531
  555
  581
  607
  635
  664
  694
  726
  760
  795
  832
  871
  911
  954
  999
  1,046
  1,096
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  298
  298
  298
  296
  292
  286
  278
  269
  258
  246
  221
  207
  193
  178
  163
  148
  132
  117
  102
  88
  75
  63
  52
  42
  34
  27
  20
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Blackbaud, Inc. is a cloud software company. The Company offers a range of cloud and on-premise solutions, as well as a resource network that empowers and connects organizations of all sizes. Its segments include the General Markets Business Unit (the GMBU), the Enterprise Customer Business Unit (the ECBU) and the International Business Unit (the IBU). The GMBU is focused on marketing, sales, delivery and support to all emerging and mid-sized prospects and customers in North America. The ECBU is focused on marketing, sales, delivery and support to all large and/or strategic prospects and customers in North America. The IBU is focused on marketing, sales, delivery and support to all prospects and customers outside of North America. It operates in four geographic regions: the United States, Canada, Europe and Australia. Its portfolio of software and services supports nonprofit fundraising and relationship management, digital marketing, advocacy, accounting, payments and analytics.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Blackbaud (BLKB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 80.3
Price to Sales 4.6
Price to Book 13.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 30.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 14.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 29.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity 136.3%
Total Debt to Equity 137.9%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Total Capital 6.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Return On Equity 18.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 53.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.5%
EBITDA Margin 17.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Operating Margin 8.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Net Profit Margin 5.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Effective Tax Rate 17.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.2%
Payout Ratio 54.8%

BLKB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BLKB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $788.306 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Blackbaud. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Blackbaud. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BLKB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BLKB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Blackbaud, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Blackbaud.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BLKB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BLKB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Blackbaud.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Blackbaud. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BLKB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BLKB are equal to 57.5%.

Life of production assets of 11.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Blackbaud operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BLKB is equal to -102.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $336.289 million for Blackbaud - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48.526 million for Blackbaud is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Blackbaud at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Blackbaud Inc. Hit Some Turbulence in Q3   [10:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Blackbaud: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ Blackbaud dials back revenue, profit expectations   [Oct-08-18 04:48PM  MarketWatch]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for September 6th   [Sep-06-18 08:48AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for August 23rd   [Aug-23-18 08:40AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for August 8th   [Aug-08-18 07:38AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for August 6th   [Aug-06-18 06:58AM  Zacks]
▶ Blackbaud, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [06:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Blackbaud (BLKB) Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates   [Jul-30-18 06:50PM  Zacks]
▶ Blackbaud: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ Blog Exposure - Blackbaud Acquired Reeher   [May-03-18 07:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ 4 Stocks Buffett Might Buy--If He Could   [06:00AM  Morningstar]
▶ Tech company Reeher sold to Blackbaud for $43 million   [10:59AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Blackbaud, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [06:15AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Blackbaud: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-30-18 04:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ Blackbaud, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [06:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Blackbaud beats 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-06-18 06:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ /C O R R E C T I O N -- Blackbaud, Inc./   [Dec-02-17 04:23PM  PR Newswire]

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