Intrinsic value of Blackbaud - BLKB

Previous Close

$117.76

  Intrinsic Value

$63.39

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-46%

Previous close

$117.76

 
Intrinsic value

$63.39

 
Up/down potential

-46%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of BLKB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.90
  7.61
  7.35
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
Revenue, $m
  850
  915
  982
  1,052
  1,125
  1,200
  1,279
  1,360
  1,445
  1,534
  1,626
  1,722
  1,822
  1,927
  2,036
  2,150
  2,269
  2,394
  2,524
  2,660
  2,802
  2,951
  3,107
  3,270
  3,441
  3,621
  3,808
  4,005
  4,212
  4,428
Variable operating expenses, $m
  772
  824
  878
  934
  992
  1,052
  1,115
  1,181
  1,249
  1,320
  1,304
  1,381
  1,461
  1,545
  1,633
  1,724
  1,820
  1,919
  2,024
  2,133
  2,247
  2,366
  2,492
  2,623
  2,760
  2,903
  3,054
  3,212
  3,377
  3,551
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  772
  824
  878
  934
  992
  1,052
  1,115
  1,181
  1,249
  1,320
  1,304
  1,381
  1,461
  1,545
  1,633
  1,724
  1,820
  1,919
  2,024
  2,133
  2,247
  2,366
  2,492
  2,623
  2,760
  2,903
  3,054
  3,212
  3,377
  3,551
Operating income, $m
  79
  91
  105
  119
  133
  148
  163
  180
  196
  214
  322
  341
  361
  382
  403
  426
  449
  474
  500
  527
  555
  585
  615
  648
  682
  717
  754
  793
  834
  877
EBITDA, $m
  261
  281
  302
  323
  346
  369
  393
  418
  444
  471
  500
  529
  560
  592
  626
  661
  697
  735
  775
  817
  861
  907
  955
  1,005
  1,058
  1,113
  1,170
  1,231
  1,294
  1,361
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  24
  30
  36
  43
  50
  57
  65
  73
  81
  89
  98
  107
  117
  127
  137
  148
  159
  171
  184
  196
  210
  224
  239
  255
  271
  288
  306
  324
  344
  365
Earnings before tax, $m
  55
  61
  68
  75
  83
  91
  99
  107
  116
  125
  224
  234
  244
  255
  266
  278
  290
  303
  316
  330
  345
  360
  376
  393
  411
  429
  449
  469
  490
  513
Tax expense, $m
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  31
  34
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
Net income, $m
  40
  45
  50
  55
  61
  66
  72
  78
  84
  91
  164
  171
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  221
  231
  241
  252
  263
  275
  287
  300
  313
  328
  342
  358
  374

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,898
  2,042
  2,192
  2,348
  2,510
  2,679
  2,854
  3,037
  3,226
  3,424
  3,630
  3,844
  4,068
  4,301
  4,545
  4,799
  5,065
  5,343
  5,633
  5,937
  6,255
  6,587
  6,935
  7,300
  7,682
  8,082
  8,501
  8,940
  9,401
  9,884
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,898
  2,042
  2,192
  2,348
  2,510
  2,679
  2,854
  3,037
  3,226
  3,424
  3,630
  3,844
  4,068
  4,301
  4,545
  4,799
  5,065
  5,343
  5,633
  5,937
  6,255
  6,587
  6,935
  7,300
  7,682
  8,082
  8,501
  8,940
  9,401
  9,884
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
Average production assets, $m
  928
  999
  1,073
  1,149
  1,228
  1,311
  1,396
  1,486
  1,578
  1,675
  1,776
  1,881
  1,990
  2,104
  2,223
  2,348
  2,478
  2,614
  2,756
  2,904
  3,060
  3,223
  3,393
  3,571
  3,758
  3,954
  4,159
  4,374
  4,599
  4,835
Working capital, $m
  -687
  -739
  -794
  -850
  -909
  -970
  -1,033
  -1,099
  -1,168
  -1,239
  -1,314
  -1,392
  -1,472
  -1,557
  -1,645
  -1,737
  -1,833
  -1,934
  -2,039
  -2,149
  -2,264
  -2,384
  -2,510
  -2,642
  -2,781
  -2,926
  -3,077
  -3,236
  -3,403
  -3,578
Total debt, $m
  553
  673
  797
  926
  1,059
  1,199
  1,343
  1,494
  1,651
  1,814
  1,984
  2,161
  2,346
  2,539
  2,740
  2,950
  3,169
  3,399
  3,639
  3,890
  4,152
  4,427
  4,714
  5,016
  5,331
  5,661
  6,008
  6,371
  6,751
  7,150
Total liabilities, $m
  1,568
  1,687
  1,811
  1,940
  2,074
  2,213
  2,358
  2,508
  2,665
  2,828
  2,998
  3,175
  3,360
  3,553
  3,754
  3,964
  4,184
  4,413
  4,653
  4,904
  5,166
  5,441
  5,729
  6,030
  6,345
  6,676
  7,022
  7,385
  7,765
  8,164
Total equity, $m
  330
  355
  381
  409
  437
  466
  497
  528
  561
  596
  632
  669
  708
  748
  791
  835
  881
  930
  980
  1,033
  1,088
  1,146
  1,207
  1,270
  1,337
  1,406
  1,479
  1,556
  1,636
  1,720
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,898
  2,042
  2,192
  2,349
  2,511
  2,679
  2,855
  3,036
  3,226
  3,424
  3,630
  3,844
  4,068
  4,301
  4,545
  4,799
  5,065
  5,343
  5,633
  5,937
  6,254
  6,587
  6,936
  7,300
  7,682
  8,082
  8,501
  8,941
  9,401
  9,884
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.680
  1.890
  2.090
  2.270
  2.430
  2.570
  2.700
  2.830
  2.940
  3.040
  3.140
  3.230
  3.310
  3.390
  3.460
  3.530
  3.600
  3.660
  3.710
  3.770
  3.820
  3.860
  3.910
  3.950
  3.990
  4.030
  4.060
  4.100
  4.130
  4.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  40
  45
  50
  55
  61
  66
  72
  78
  84
  91
  164
  171
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  221
  231
  241
  252
  263
  275
  287
  300
  313
  328
  342
  358
  374
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  183
  190
  197
  205
  213
  221
  230
  238
  248
  257
  178
  188
  199
  210
  222
  235
  248
  261
  276
  290
  306
  322
  339
  357
  376
  395
  416
  437
  460
  484
Funds from operations, $m
  223
  235
  247
  260
  273
  287
  302
  317
  332
  349
  341
  359
  377
  397
  417
  438
  460
  483
  507
  532
  558
  585
  614
  644
  676
  709
  743
  780
  818
  858
Change in working capital, $m
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
Cash from operations, $m
  273
  287
  301
  316
  332
  348
  365
  383
  401
  420
  416
  437
  458
  481
  505
  530
  556
  583
  612
  642
  673
  706
  740
  776
  814
  854
  895
  939
  985
  1,033
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -115
  -123
  -131
  -140
  -149
  -158
  -167
  -178
  -188
  -199
  -210
  -222
  -235
  -248
  -261
  -276
  -290
  -306
  -322
  -339
  -357
  -376
  -395
  -416
  -437
  -460
New CAPEX, $m
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -155
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -205
  -215
  -225
  -236
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -154
  -164
  -173
  -183
  -194
  -205
  -217
  -229
  -242
  -255
  -268
  -283
  -297
  -313
  -329
  -346
  -365
  -384
  -403
  -425
  -445
  -469
  -492
  -517
  -544
  -572
  -600
  -631
  -662
  -696
Free cash flow, $m
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  148
  154
  160
  166
  148
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  199
  208
  217
  227
  237
  248
  259
  270
  282
  295
  308
  322
  336
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
  220
  229
  240
  251
  262
  275
  288
  301
  315
  330
  346
  363
  380
  399
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
  220
  229
  240
  251
  262
  275
  288
  301
  315
  330
  346
  363
  380
  399
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  234
  243
  252
  262
  272
  282
  293
  304
  316
  329
  318
  331
  346
  361
  376
  393
  411
  429
  448
  468
  489
  512
  535
  560
  585
  613
  641
  671
  702
  735
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  146
  153
  162
  170
  179
  188
  198
  208
  219
Cash available for distribution, $m
  211
  218
  226
  234
  243
  253
  262
  273
  283
  294
  282
  294
  307
  320
  334
  349
  364
  381
  398
  415
  434
  454
  475
  496
  519
  543
  568
  594
  622
  651
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  202
  199
  197
  193
  189
  183
  177
  170
  163
  154
  134
  125
  117
  107
  98
  89
  79
  70
  61
  53
  45
  38
  31
  25
  20
  16
  12
  9
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Blackbaud, Inc. is a cloud software company. The Company offers a range of cloud and on-premise solutions, as well as a resource network that empowers and connects organizations of all sizes. Its segments include the General Markets Business Unit (the GMBU), the Enterprise Customer Business Unit (the ECBU) and the International Business Unit (the IBU). The GMBU is focused on marketing, sales, delivery and support to all emerging and mid-sized prospects and customers in North America. The ECBU is focused on marketing, sales, delivery and support to all large and/or strategic prospects and customers in North America. The IBU is focused on marketing, sales, delivery and support to all prospects and customers outside of North America. It operates in four geographic regions: the United States, Canada, Europe and Australia. Its portfolio of software and services supports nonprofit fundraising and relationship management, digital marketing, advocacy, accounting, payments and analytics.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Blackbaud (BLKB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 133.2
Price to Sales 7.7
Price to Book 22.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 36.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 50.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 14.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 29.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity 136.3%
Total Debt to Equity 137.9%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Total Capital 6.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Return On Equity 18.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 53.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.5%
EBITDA Margin 17.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Operating Margin 8.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Net Profit Margin 5.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Effective Tax Rate 17.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.2%
Payout Ratio 54.8%

BLKB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BLKB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $788 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Blackbaud. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Blackbaud. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BLKB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BLKB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Blackbaud, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Blackbaud.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BLKB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BLKB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Blackbaud.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Blackbaud. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BLKB stock is equal to 5.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BLKB are equal to 109.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Blackbaud operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BLKB is equal to -80.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $307 million for Blackbaud - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47 million for Blackbaud is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Blackbaud at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Blog Exposure - Blackbaud Acquired Reeher   [May-03-18 07:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ 4 Stocks Buffett Might Buy--If He Could   [06:00AM  Morningstar]
▶ Tech company Reeher sold to Blackbaud for $43 million   [10:59AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Blackbaud, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [06:15AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Blackbaud: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-30-18 04:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ Blackbaud, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [06:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Blackbaud beats 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-06-18 06:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ /C O R R E C T I O N -- Blackbaud, Inc./   [Dec-02-17 04:23PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 2017 Giving Tuesday Highest on Record   [10:32AM  PR Newswire]
▶ #GivingTuesday Set to Break Online Giving Records Again   [Nov-28-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Blackbaud, Inc. : November 9, 2017   [Nov-09-17 12:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Blackbaud Earns Membership In 95-Plus Composite Rating Club   [Oct-27-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Blackbaud beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Oct-25-17 06:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ Blackbaud Announces 2017 Partner Award Winners   [Oct-16-17 03:35PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Blackbaud Completes Acquisition of JustGiving   [Oct-03-17 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Blackbaud Named to Fortune's 2017 Change the World List   [Sep-07-17 09:11AM  PR Newswire]
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