Intrinsic value of Ball Corporation - BLL

Previous Close

$78.30

  Intrinsic Value

$29.54

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-62%

Previous close

$78.30

 
Intrinsic value

$29.54

 
Up/down potential

-62%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of BLL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 26.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  11,868
  12,141
  12,453
  12,803
  13,191
  13,617
  14,081
  14,583
  15,124
  15,704
  16,325
  16,987
  17,693
  18,443
  19,238
  20,081
  20,974
  21,917
  22,915
  23,967
  25,078
  26,250
  27,485
  28,786
  30,157
  31,599
  33,118
  34,716
  36,398
  38,166
Variable operating expenses, $m
  9,433
  9,635
  9,866
  10,124
  10,411
  10,726
  11,068
  11,439
  11,839
  12,267
  12,060
  12,549
  13,070
  13,624
  14,212
  14,835
  15,494
  16,191
  16,928
  17,706
  18,526
  19,392
  20,304
  21,265
  22,278
  23,344
  24,465
  25,646
  26,888
  28,195
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  1,502
  1,535
  1,569
  1,604
  1,639
  1,675
  1,712
  1,750
  1,788
  1,827
  1,868
  1,909
  1,951
  1,994
  2,037
  2,082
  2,128
  2,175
  2,223
  2,272
  2,322
  2,373
  2,425
  2,478
  2,533
  2,588
  2,645
  2,704
  2,763
  2,824
Total operating expenses, $m
  10,935
  11,170
  11,435
  11,728
  12,050
  12,401
  12,780
  13,189
  13,627
  14,094
  13,928
  14,458
  15,021
  15,618
  16,249
  16,917
  17,622
  18,366
  19,151
  19,978
  20,848
  21,765
  22,729
  23,743
  24,811
  25,932
  27,110
  28,350
  29,651
  31,019
Operating income, $m
  932
  970
  1,018
  1,075
  1,141
  1,216
  1,301
  1,394
  1,497
  1,609
  2,398
  2,530
  2,672
  2,825
  2,989
  3,164
  3,352
  3,551
  3,764
  3,990
  4,231
  4,486
  4,756
  5,043
  5,346
  5,667
  6,007
  6,367
  6,746
  7,148
EBITDA, $m
  2,098
  2,148
  2,209
  2,281
  2,363
  2,456
  2,560
  2,675
  2,800
  2,937
  3,085
  3,245
  3,417
  3,602
  3,799
  4,010
  4,235
  4,475
  4,729
  5,000
  5,287
  5,591
  5,914
  6,255
  6,616
  6,998
  7,402
  7,829
  8,280
  8,755
Interest expense (income), $m
  190
  363
  377
  394
  413
  434
  458
  484
  512
  542
  575
  610
  648
  688
  731
  777
  825
  876
  931
  988
  1,048
  1,112
  1,180
  1,251
  1,326
  1,405
  1,488
  1,576
  1,668
  1,766
  1,868
Earnings before tax, $m
  569
  593
  624
  662
  707
  759
  817
  882
  955
  1,034
  1,787
  1,882
  1,984
  2,094
  2,212
  2,339
  2,475
  2,621
  2,776
  2,942
  3,118
  3,306
  3,505
  3,716
  3,941
  4,179
  4,431
  4,698
  4,981
  5,280
Tax expense, $m
  154
  160
  169
  179
  191
  205
  221
  238
  258
  279
  483
  508
  536
  565
  597
  632
  668
  708
  750
  794
  842
  893
  946
  1,003
  1,064
  1,128
  1,196
  1,269
  1,345
  1,426
Net income, $m
  415
  433
  456
  483
  516
  554
  596
  644
  697
  755
  1,305
  1,374
  1,448
  1,528
  1,615
  1,708
  1,807
  1,913
  2,027
  2,148
  2,276
  2,413
  2,559
  2,713
  2,877
  3,051
  3,235
  3,430
  3,636
  3,854

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  16,882
  17,270
  17,714
  18,212
  18,764
  19,370
  20,030
  20,744
  21,513
  22,338
  23,222
  24,164
  25,168
  26,234
  27,366
  28,565
  29,835
  31,177
  32,595
  34,093
  35,673
  37,340
  39,097
  40,948
  42,897
  44,949
  47,110
  49,383
  51,775
  54,290
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  16,882
  17,270
  17,714
  18,212
  18,764
  19,370
  20,030
  20,744
  21,513
  22,338
  23,222
  24,164
  25,168
  26,234
  27,366
  28,565
  29,835
  31,177
  32,595
  34,093
  35,673
  37,340
  39,097
  40,948
  42,897
  44,949
  47,110
  49,383
  51,775
  54,290
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
  0.703
Average production assets, $m
  8,248
  8,438
  8,655
  8,898
  9,168
  9,464
  9,786
  10,135
  10,511
  10,914
  11,346
  11,806
  12,297
  12,818
  13,371
  13,956
  14,577
  15,233
  15,926
  16,657
  17,430
  18,244
  19,102
  20,006
  20,959
  21,962
  23,017
  24,128
  25,296
  26,525
Working capital, $m
  -665
  -680
  -697
  -717
  -739
  -763
  -789
  -817
  -847
  -879
  -914
  -951
  -991
  -1,033
  -1,077
  -1,125
  -1,175
  -1,227
  -1,283
  -1,342
  -1,404
  -1,470
  -1,539
  -1,612
  -1,689
  -1,770
  -1,855
  -1,944
  -2,038
  -2,137
Total debt, $m
  6,986
  7,293
  7,644
  8,039
  8,475
  8,955
  9,476
  10,041
  10,650
  11,303
  12,001
  12,747
  13,541
  14,384
  15,279
  16,228
  17,232
  18,294
  19,416
  20,601
  21,851
  23,169
  24,558
  26,023
  27,564
  29,188
  30,897
  32,695
  34,587
  36,577
Total liabilities, $m
  13,353
  13,660
  14,011
  14,406
  14,842
  15,322
  15,843
  16,408
  17,017
  17,670
  18,368
  19,114
  19,908
  20,751
  21,646
  22,595
  23,599
  24,661
  25,783
  26,968
  28,218
  29,536
  30,925
  32,390
  33,931
  35,555
  37,264
  39,062
  40,954
  42,944
Total equity, $m
  3,528
  3,609
  3,702
  3,806
  3,922
  4,048
  4,186
  4,335
  4,496
  4,669
  4,853
  5,050
  5,260
  5,483
  5,719
  5,970
  6,235
  6,516
  6,812
  7,125
  7,456
  7,804
  8,171
  8,558
  8,965
  9,394
  9,846
  10,321
  10,821
  11,347
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  16,881
  17,269
  17,713
  18,212
  18,764
  19,370
  20,029
  20,743
  21,513
  22,339
  23,221
  24,164
  25,168
  26,234
  27,365
  28,565
  29,834
  31,177
  32,595
  34,093
  35,674
  37,340
  39,096
  40,948
  42,896
  44,949
  47,110
  49,383
  51,775
  54,291
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.980
  2.020
  2.060
  2.110
  2.160
  2.210
  2.260
  2.320
  2.370
  2.420
  2.470
  2.520
  2.570
  2.620
  2.670
  2.720
  2.760
  2.810
  2.850
  2.890
  2.930
  2.970
  3.010
  3.040
  3.070
  3.110
  3.140
  3.170
  3.200
  3.220
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  415
  433
  456
  483
  516
  554
  596
  644
  697
  755
  1,305
  1,374
  1,448
  1,528
  1,615
  1,708
  1,807
  1,913
  2,027
  2,148
  2,276
  2,413
  2,559
  2,713
  2,877
  3,051
  3,235
  3,430
  3,636
  3,854
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,166
  1,178
  1,191
  1,206
  1,222
  1,240
  1,259
  1,281
  1,303
  1,328
  688
  716
  745
  777
  810
  846
  883
  923
  965
  1,010
  1,056
  1,106
  1,158
  1,213
  1,270
  1,331
  1,395
  1,462
  1,533
  1,608
Funds from operations, $m
  1,581
  1,611
  1,646
  1,689
  1,738
  1,794
  1,856
  1,925
  2,000
  2,083
  1,992
  2,089
  2,193
  2,305
  2,425
  2,553
  2,690
  2,836
  2,992
  3,157
  3,333
  3,519
  3,716
  3,926
  4,147
  4,382
  4,630
  4,892
  5,169
  5,462
Change in working capital, $m
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
Cash from operations, $m
  1,594
  1,626
  1,664
  1,709
  1,760
  1,818
  1,882
  1,953
  2,031
  2,115
  2,027
  2,126
  2,233
  2,347
  2,470
  2,601
  2,740
  2,889
  3,048
  3,216
  3,395
  3,584
  3,785
  3,998
  4,224
  4,462
  4,715
  4,981
  5,263
  5,561
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -490
  -500
  -511
  -525
  -539
  -556
  -574
  -593
  -614
  -637
  -661
  -688
  -716
  -745
  -777
  -810
  -846
  -883
  -923
  -965
  -1,010
  -1,056
  -1,106
  -1,158
  -1,213
  -1,270
  -1,331
  -1,395
  -1,462
  -1,533
New CAPEX, $m
  -158
  -190
  -217
  -243
  -270
  -296
  -322
  -349
  -376
  -403
  -432
  -460
  -490
  -521
  -553
  -586
  -620
  -656
  -693
  -732
  -772
  -814
  -858
  -904
  -952
  -1,003
  -1,056
  -1,111
  -1,169
  -1,229
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -648
  -690
  -728
  -768
  -809
  -852
  -896
  -942
  -990
  -1,040
  -1,093
  -1,148
  -1,206
  -1,266
  -1,330
  -1,396
  -1,466
  -1,539
  -1,616
  -1,697
  -1,782
  -1,870
  -1,964
  -2,062
  -2,165
  -2,273
  -2,387
  -2,506
  -2,631
  -2,762
Free cash flow, $m
  946
  936
  936
  941
  951
  966
  986
  1,011
  1,040
  1,075
  934
  978
  1,027
  1,081
  1,140
  1,204
  1,274
  1,350
  1,431
  1,519
  1,613
  1,714
  1,821
  1,936
  2,059
  2,189
  2,328
  2,476
  2,633
  2,799
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  257
  307
  351
  394
  437
  479
  522
  565
  609
  653
  699
  745
  794
  844
  895
  949
  1,004
  1,062
  1,122
  1,185
  1,250
  1,318
  1,390
  1,464
  1,542
  1,623
  1,709
  1,798
  1,892
  1,990
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  257
  307
  351
  394
  437
  479
  522
  565
  609
  653
  699
  745
  794
  844
  895
  949
  1,004
  1,062
  1,122
  1,185
  1,250
  1,318
  1,390
  1,464
  1,542
  1,623
  1,709
  1,798
  1,892
  1,990
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,204
  1,243
  1,287
  1,335
  1,387
  1,445
  1,508
  1,576
  1,649
  1,728
  1,633
  1,724
  1,821
  1,924
  2,035
  2,153
  2,278
  2,412
  2,553
  2,704
  2,863
  3,032
  3,211
  3,400
  3,601
  3,813
  4,037
  4,274
  4,524
  4,789
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -70
  -81
  -93
  -104
  -115
  -127
  -138
  -149
  -161
  -173
  -185
  -197
  -210
  -223
  -237
  -251
  -265
  -281
  -296
  -313
  -330
  -348
  -367
  -387
  -407
  -429
  -452
  -475
  -500
  -526
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,133
  1,162
  1,194
  1,231
  1,272
  1,319
  1,370
  1,426
  1,488
  1,555
  1,448
  1,527
  1,611
  1,702
  1,799
  1,902
  2,013
  2,131
  2,257
  2,391
  2,533
  2,684
  2,844
  3,014
  3,193
  3,384
  3,586
  3,799
  4,024
  4,263
Discount rate, %
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.42
  17.24
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
  28.09
  29.49
  30.97
  32.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,050
  991
  929
  867
  804
  741
  677
  614
  551
  489
  382
  334
  287
  244
  203
  167
  135
  107
  83
  63
  47
  34
  24
  16
  11
  7
  4
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ball Corporation is a supplier of metal packaging to the beverage, food, personal care and household products industries. The Company's packaging products are produced for a range of end uses and are manufactured in facilities around the world. Its segments include beverage packaging, North and Central America; beverage packaging, South America; beverage packaging, Europe; food and aerosol packaging; aerospace, and other. Its major product line is aluminum and steel beverage containers. It produces steel food, aerosol and extruded aluminum aerosol containers and aluminum slugs. Its aerospace business designs, develops and manufactures aerospace systems for civil, commercial and national cyber security aerospace markets. It produces spacecraft, instruments and sensors, radio frequency systems and components, data exploitation solutions and a range of aerospace technologies and products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ball Corporation (BLL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 104.1
Price to Sales 3
Price to Book 8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 141.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -66.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 212.8%
Total Debt to Equity 219.3%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Return On Total Capital 3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Return On Equity 11.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.8%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 19.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
EBITDA Margin 8.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Operating Margin 5.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Net Profit Margin 2.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Effective Tax Rate -100.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.3%
Payout Ratio 31.6%

BLL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BLL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $11635 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ball Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Ball Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BLL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.9%, whose default value for BLL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ball Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ball Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BLL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 79.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1470 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BLL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Ball Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ball Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BLL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BLL are equal to 69.5%.

Life of production assets of 16.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ball Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BLL is equal to -5.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3458 million for Ball Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 334.087 million for Ball Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ball Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $26.2 billion.

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