Intrinsic value of BioMarin Pharmaceutical - BMRN

Previous Close

$94.66

  Intrinsic Value

$3.69

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-96%

  Value-price divergence*

-9%

Previous close

$94.66

 
Intrinsic value

$3.69

 
Up/down potential

-96%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-9%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BMRN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 16.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  25.51
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.09
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
Revenue, $m
  1,117
  1,181
  1,247
  1,317
  1,389
  1,465
  1,544
  1,627
  1,714
  1,805
  1,900
  2,000
  2,104
  2,213
  2,328
  2,448
  2,574
  2,706
  2,845
  2,990
  3,142
  3,302
  3,470
  3,645
  3,830
  4,024
  4,227
  4,440
  4,664
  4,899
  5,145
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,326
  1,399
  1,476
  1,557
  1,640
  1,728
  1,820
  1,916
  2,017
  2,122
  2,212
  2,328
  2,449
  2,576
  2,709
  2,848
  2,994
  3,147
  3,308
  3,476
  3,653
  3,839
  4,033
  4,237
  4,452
  4,676
  4,912
  5,160
  5,420
  5,693
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,920
  1,326
  1,399
  1,476
  1,557
  1,640
  1,728
  1,820
  1,916
  2,017
  2,122
  2,212
  2,328
  2,449
  2,576
  2,709
  2,848
  2,994
  3,147
  3,308
  3,476
  3,653
  3,839
  4,033
  4,237
  4,452
  4,676
  4,912
  5,160
  5,420
  5,693
Operating income, $m
  -803
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -167
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -248
  -260
  -274
  -288
  -303
  -318
  -334
  -351
  -369
  -388
  -407
  -428
  -450
  -472
  -496
  -521
  -547
EBITDA, $m
  -706
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  23
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  54
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
Earnings before tax, $m
  -831
  -168
  -178
  -188
  -198
  -209
  -221
  -232
  -245
  -258
  -272
  -266
  -281
  -297
  -313
  -330
  -349
  -367
  -387
  -408
  -430
  -453
  -477
  -502
  -529
  -556
  -585
  -616
  -648
  -682
  -717
Tax expense, $m
  -201
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -630
  -168
  -178
  -188
  -198
  -209
  -221
  -232
  -245
  -258
  -272
  -266
  -281
  -297
  -313
  -330
  -349
  -367
  -387
  -408
  -430
  -453
  -477
  -502
  -529
  -556
  -585
  -616
  -648
  -682
  -717

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  790
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,024
  3,422
  3,615
  3,816
  4,026
  4,246
  4,476
  4,717
  4,968
  5,232
  5,507
  5,796
  6,099
  6,416
  6,748
  7,096
  7,461
  7,844
  8,245
  8,666
  9,108
  9,571
  10,057
  10,566
  11,101
  11,662
  12,251
  12,870
  13,518
  14,199
  14,914
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,234
  3,422
  3,615
  3,816
  4,026
  4,246
  4,476
  4,717
  4,968
  5,232
  5,507
  5,796
  6,099
  6,416
  6,748
  7,096
  7,461
  7,844
  8,245
  8,666
  9,108
  9,571
  10,057
  10,566
  11,101
  11,662
  12,251
  12,870
  13,518
  14,199
  14,914
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
Average production assets, $m
  1,370
  1,448
  1,529
  1,614
  1,703
  1,796
  1,893
  1,995
  2,101
  2,213
  2,329
  2,452
  2,580
  2,714
  2,854
  3,001
  3,156
  3,318
  3,487
  3,665
  3,852
  4,048
  4,254
  4,469
  4,695
  4,933
  5,182
  5,443
  5,718
  6,006
  6,308
Working capital, $m
  983
  227
  239
  253
  267
  281
  296
  312
  329
  347
  365
  384
  404
  425
  447
  470
  494
  520
  546
  574
  603
  634
  666
  700
  735
  773
  812
  852
  895
  941
  988
Total debt, $m
  683
  732
  806
  883
  963
  1,047
  1,135
  1,227
  1,323
  1,423
  1,529
  1,639
  1,755
  1,876
  2,003
  2,136
  2,275
  2,421
  2,575
  2,735
  2,904
  3,081
  3,267
  3,461
  3,666
  3,880
  4,105
  4,341
  4,589
  4,849
  5,122
Total liabilities, $m
  1,257
  1,307
  1,381
  1,458
  1,538
  1,622
  1,710
  1,802
  1,898
  1,998
  2,104
  2,214
  2,330
  2,451
  2,578
  2,711
  2,850
  2,996
  3,150
  3,310
  3,479
  3,656
  3,842
  4,036
  4,241
  4,455
  4,680
  4,916
  5,164
  5,424
  5,697
Total equity, $m
  2,766
  2,115
  2,234
  2,358
  2,488
  2,624
  2,766
  2,915
  3,070
  3,233
  3,404
  3,582
  3,769
  3,965
  4,170
  4,385
  4,611
  4,847
  5,096
  5,356
  5,628
  5,915
  6,215
  6,530
  6,861
  7,207
  7,571
  7,953
  8,354
  8,775
  9,217
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,023
  3,422
  3,615
  3,816
  4,026
  4,246
  4,476
  4,717
  4,968
  5,231
  5,508
  5,796
  6,099
  6,416
  6,748
  7,096
  7,461
  7,843
  8,246
  8,666
  9,107
  9,571
  10,057
  10,566
  11,102
  11,662
  12,251
  12,869
  13,518
  14,199
  14,914
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.247
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -630
  -168
  -178
  -188
  -198
  -209
  -221
  -232
  -245
  -258
  -272
  -266
  -281
  -297
  -313
  -330
  -349
  -367
  -387
  -408
  -430
  -453
  -477
  -502
  -529
  -556
  -585
  -616
  -648
  -682
  -717
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  97
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  151
  159
  168
  176
  185
  195
  205
  215
  226
  238
  250
  263
  276
  290
  304
  320
  336
  353
  371
  389
Funds from operations, $m
  -388
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -137
  -145
  -154
  -163
  -172
  -182
  -192
  -203
  -214
  -226
  -239
  -252
  -265
  -280
  -295
  -311
  -328
Change in working capital, $m
  -160
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
Cash from operations, $m
  -228
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -134
  -142
  -150
  -159
  -168
  -178
  -188
  -199
  -210
  -221
  -234
  -246
  -260
  -274
  -289
  -305
  -321
  -338
  -356
  -375
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -238
  -250
  -263
  -276
  -290
  -304
  -320
  -336
  -353
  -371
New CAPEX, $m
  -148
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -226
  -237
  -249
  -261
  -274
  -288
  -302
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -484
  -163
  -170
  -179
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -229
  -241
  -254
  -266
  -279
  -293
  -309
  -323
  -339
  -357
  -375
  -393
  -413
  -434
  -456
  -479
  -502
  -527
  -553
  -581
  -610
  -641
  -673
Free cash flow, $m
  -712
  -234
  -248
  -261
  -276
  -291
  -307
  -324
  -342
  -360
  -380
  -400
  -421
  -444
  -467
  -492
  -518
  -545
  -573
  -603
  -634
  -667
  -702
  -738
  -776
  -816
  -858
  -902
  -948
  -997
  -1,048
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
  204
  214
  225
  236
  248
  260
  273
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  787
  285
  297
  312
  328
  345
  363
  381
  400
  421
  442
  445
  468
  493
  519
  546
  574
  604
  635
  668
  703
  739
  777
  817
  859
  903
  949
  998
  1,049
  1,102
  1,159
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  727
  356
  371
  389
  408
  429
  451
  473
  496
  522
  547
  555
  584
  614
  646
  679
  713
  750
  788
  829
  872
  916
  963
  1,012
  1,063
  1,117
  1,174
  1,234
  1,297
  1,362
  1,432
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  11
  123
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
  205
  215
  226
  237
  249
  261
  274
  287
  301
  316
  332
  348
  366
  384
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -365
  -285
  -297
  -312
  -328
  -345
  -363
  -381
  -400
  -421
  -442
  -445
  -468
  -493
  -519
  -546
  -574
  -604
  -635
  -668
  -703
  -739
  -777
  -817
  -859
  -903
  -949
  -998
  -1,049
  -1,102
  -1,159
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  768
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  606
  -174
  -185
  -196
  -207
  -220
  -232
  -246
  -260
  -274
  -290
  -306
  -323
  -340
  -359
  -378
  -399
  -420
  -442
  -466
  -490
  -516
  -543
  -572
  -602
  -633
  -666
  -701
  -737
  -775
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  581
  -159
  -161
  -161
  -161
  -159
  -157
  -154
  -149
  -144
  -138
  -130
  -123
  -114
  -105
  -96
  -87
  -77
  -68
  -59
  -51
  -43
  -36
  -29
  -23
  -18
  -14
  -11
  -8
  -6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.7
  95.4
  93.2
  91.1
  89.0
  87.0
  85.0
  83.1
  81.2
  79.4
  77.7
  76.0
  74.4
  72.8
  71.3
  69.7
  68.2
  66.7
  65.3
  63.9
  62.5
  61.2
  59.9
  58.6
  57.3
  56.1
  54.8
  53.7
  52.5
  51.4

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. is a biotechnology company. The Company develops and commercializes pharmaceuticals for various diseases and medical conditions. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's therapy portfolio consisted of five products, and multiple clinical and pre-clinical product candidates. Its commercial products include Aldurazyme (laronidase) for Mucopolysaccharidosis I (MPS I), Firdapse (amifampridine phosphate) for Lambert Eaton Myasthenic Syndrome (LEMS), Kuvan (sapropterin dihydrochloride) for phenylketonuria (PKU), Naglazyme (galsulfase) for Mucopolysaccharidosis VI (MPS VI) and Vimizim (elosulfase alpha) for Mucopolysaccharidosis IV Type A (MPS IV A). The Company is conducting clinical trials on various product candidates for the treatment of various diseases. Its clinical product candidates include Brineura, pegvaliase, vosoritide, BMN 270 and BMN 250.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -25.9
Price to Sales 14.6
Price to Book 5.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -71.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -43.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 25.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -35.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 17.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 36
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 23.9%
Total Debt to Equity 24.7%
Interest Coverage -91
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -16.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.9%
Return On Total Capital -19.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.8%
Return On Equity -24.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.2%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 81.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 82.6%
EBITDA Margin -64.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.5%
Operating Margin -71.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -74.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -36.2%
Net Profit Margin -56.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.2%
Effective Tax Rate 24.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Payout Ratio 0%

BMRN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BMRN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1117 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by BioMarin Pharmaceutical. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of BioMarin Pharmaceutical. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BMRN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BMRN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of BioMarin Pharmaceutical, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of BioMarin Pharmaceutical.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BMRN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 112.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BMRN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for BioMarin Pharmaceutical.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for BioMarin Pharmaceutical. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BMRN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BMRN are equal to 122.6%.

Life of production assets of 16.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in BioMarin Pharmaceutical operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BMRN is equal to 19.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2766 million for BioMarin Pharmaceutical - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 174.035 million for BioMarin Pharmaceutical is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of BioMarin Pharmaceutical at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $16.5 billion.

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Financial statements of BMRN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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