Intrinsic value of Benitec Biopharma ADR - BNTC

Previous Close

$2.41

  Intrinsic Value

$0.52

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-78%

Previous close

$2.41

 
Intrinsic value

$0.52

 
Up/down potential

-78%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of BNTC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  26.30
  24.17
  22.25
  20.53
  18.97
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.25
  12.43
  11.68
  11.02
  10.41
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
  7.33
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.11
  6.00
Revenue, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
Variable operating expenses, $m
  45
  56
  69
  83
  98
  116
  134
  155
  177
  200
  225
  251
  279
  308
  339
  370
  403
  438
  474
  511
  550
  590
  632
  676
  721
  768
  817
  868
  921
  976
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  45
  56
  69
  83
  98
  116
  134
  155
  177
  200
  225
  251
  279
  308
  339
  370
  403
  438
  474
  511
  550
  590
  632
  676
  721
  768
  817
  868
  921
  976
Operating income, $m
  -44
  -55
  -67
  -81
  -97
  -114
  -132
  -152
  -174
  -197
  -221
  -247
  -274
  -303
  -333
  -364
  -397
  -431
  -466
  -503
  -541
  -581
  -622
  -665
  -709
  -755
  -804
  -854
  -906
  -960
EBITDA, $m
  -44
  -55
  -67
  -81
  -97
  -113
  -132
  -152
  -174
  -197
  -221
  -247
  -274
  -303
  -332
  -364
  -396
  -430
  -465
  -502
  -540
  -580
  -621
  -664
  -708
  -754
  -802
  -852
  -905
  -959
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Earnings before tax, $m
  -44
  -55
  -67
  -81
  -97
  -114
  -132
  -152
  -174
  -197
  -222
  -247
  -275
  -303
  -333
  -365
  -397
  -431
  -466
  -503
  -541
  -581
  -622
  -665
  -710
  -756
  -804
  -855
  -907
  -961
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -44
  -55
  -67
  -81
  -97
  -114
  -132
  -152
  -174
  -197
  -222
  -247
  -275
  -303
  -333
  -365
  -397
  -431
  -466
  -503
  -541
  -581
  -622
  -665
  -710
  -756
  -804
  -855
  -907
  -961

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  101
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  101
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.200
  0.167
  0.143
  0.111
  0.200
  0.167
  0.143
  0.188
  0.167
  0.143
  0.174
  0.154
  0.172
  0.156
  0.171
  0.158
  0.167
  0.156
  0.163
  0.151
  0.158
  0.164
  0.152
  0.157
  0.160
  0.163
  0.153
  0.156
  0.156
  0.158
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
Total debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
Total liabilities, $m
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
Total equity, $m
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  83
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -0.080
  -0.020
  0.030
  0.060
  0.090
  0.110
  0.120
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -44
  -55
  -67
  -81
  -97
  -114
  -132
  -152
  -174
  -197
  -222
  -247
  -275
  -303
  -333
  -365
  -397
  -431
  -466
  -503
  -541
  -581
  -622
  -665
  -710
  -756
  -804
  -855
  -907
  -961
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
Funds from operations, $m
  -44
  -55
  -67
  -81
  -97
  -114
  -132
  -152
  -174
  -197
  -221
  -247
  -274
  -303
  -333
  -364
  -397
  -430
  -466
  -502
  -541
  -580
  -621
  -664
  -709
  -755
  -803
  -853
  -905
  -960
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  -44
  -55
  -67
  -81
  -97
  -114
  -132
  -152
  -174
  -197
  -221
  -247
  -274
  -303
  -333
  -364
  -397
  -431
  -466
  -503
  -541
  -580
  -622
  -665
  -709
  -755
  -803
  -854
  -906
  -960
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Free cash flow, $m
  -44
  -55
  -68
  -81
  -97
  -114
  -133
  -153
  -174
  -197
  -222
  -248
  -275
  -304
  -334
  -365
  -398
  -432
  -467
  -504
  -542
  -582
  -623
  -666
  -710
  -757
  -805
  -855
  -908
  -962
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  56
  68
  82
  98
  115
  134
  154
  176
  199
  224
  250
  277
  306
  336
  367
  400
  434
  469
  506
  545
  584
  626
  669
  714
  760
  808
  859
  911
  966
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1
  56
  68
  82
  98
  115
  134
  154
  176
  199
  224
  251
  278
  307
  337
  368
  401
  435
  470
  507
  546
  585
  627
  670
  715
  761
  809
  860
  912
  967
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -46
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -43
  -56
  -68
  -82
  -98
  -115
  -134
  -154
  -176
  -199
  -224
  -250
  -277
  -306
  -336
  -367
  -400
  -434
  -469
  -506
  -545
  -584
  -626
  -669
  -714
  -760
  -808
  -859
  -911
  -966
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -43
  -55
  -67
  -81
  -97
  -114
  -132
  -152
  -174
  -197
  -221
  -247
  -275
  -303
  -333
  -364
  -397
  -431
  -466
  -503
  -541
  -581
  -622
  -665
  -710
  -756
  -804
  -854
  -907
  -961
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -41
  -50
  -59
  -67
  -75
  -82
  -89
  -95
  -100
  -103
  -105
  -106
  -104
  -102
  -98
  -93
  -86
  -79
  -72
  -64
  -56
  -48
  -41
  -34
  -28
  -22
  -17
  -13
  -10
  -7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  7.3
  0.5
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
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Benitec Biopharma Limited is a biotechnology company. The Company is engaged in progressing programs through the clinic; the commercialization of its Intellectual Property (IP); development of its therapeutic pipeline and pre-clinical programs, and funding, and protecting and building the IP estate. Its In-house product candidates include TT-034, BB-HB-331, BB-AMD-211 and ddRNAi therapeutic. It is focused on commercialization by licensing and partnering of patents and licenses in biotechnology, in functional genomics, with applications in biomedical research and human therapeutics. It has a pipeline of in-house and partnered therapeutic programs based on its patented gene-silencing technology, deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA)-directed ribonucleic acid interference (ddRNAi). The Company is engaged in developing treatments for chronic human conditions, such as hepatitis B, wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD), and oculopharyngeal muscular dystrophy (OPMD) based on this technology.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Benitec Biopharma ADR (BNTC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

BNTC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BNTC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $0.586 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Benitec Biopharma ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Benitec Biopharma ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BNTC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 26.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BNTC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Benitec Biopharma ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Benitec Biopharma ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BNTC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 6100%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BNTC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Benitec Biopharma ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Benitec Biopharma ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BNTC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BNTC are equal to 47.6%.

Life of production assets of 0 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Benitec Biopharma ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BNTC is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $21.506 million for Benitec Biopharma ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 10.257 million for Benitec Biopharma ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Benitec Biopharma ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 3 Biotech Stocks That Soared This Week: Are They Buys?   [Jul-14-18 02:02PM  Motley Fool]
▶ ASX/NASDAQ Announcement   [Apr-24-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Federal R&D Tax Credit Received   [Jan-23-18 04:17PM  PR Newswire]
▶ U.S. patent granted for Benitec hepatitis B program   [Oct-18-17 07:45AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Benitec Biopharma advances OPMD orphan disease program   [Aug-08-17 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Rising Biotechs: Paratek Among Stocks Surging On Trial Results   [Apr-04-17 04:40PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Why Benitec More Than Doubled   [Feb-02-17 12:05PM  24/7 Wall St.]
▶ Tuesdays Top Biopharma Movers   [Jan-17-17 11:05AM  24/7 Wall St.]
▶ Benitec announces restructuring of Senior Executive team   [Aug-10-16 05:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Benitec to present at the ASGCT 2016 Annual Meeting   [Apr-25-16 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Appendix 4C - quarterly   [Jan-29-16 07:36PM  Other]
▶ Benitec Biopharma rings Nasdaq opening bell   [Sep-25  10:23AM  at CNBC]

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