Intrinsic value of Bob Evans Farms - BOBE

Previous Close

$77.01

  Intrinsic Value

$44.73

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-42%

Previous close

$77.01

 
Intrinsic value

$44.73

 
Up/down potential

-42%

 
Rating

sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BOBE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.80
  22.90
  21.11
  19.50
  18.05
  16.74
  15.57
  14.51
  13.56
  12.71
  11.93
  11.24
  10.62
  10.06
  9.55
  9.09
  8.69
  8.32
  7.99
  7.69
  7.42
  7.18
  6.96
  6.76
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.84
Revenue, $m
  395
  485
  588
  703
  829
  968
  1,119
  1,281
  1,455
  1,640
  1,836
  2,042
  2,259
  2,486
  2,724
  2,971
  3,229
  3,498
  3,777
  4,068
  4,369
  4,683
  5,009
  5,348
  5,700
  6,066
  6,447
  6,844
  7,258
  7,689
  8,138
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  443
  536
  641
  756
  882
  1,019
  1,167
  1,325
  1,493
  1,671
  1,856
  2,053
  2,260
  2,476
  2,701
  2,935
  3,179
  3,433
  3,697
  3,971
  4,256
  4,553
  4,861
  5,181
  5,514
  5,860
  6,221
  6,597
  6,988
  7,397
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  365
  443
  536
  641
  756
  882
  1,019
  1,167
  1,325
  1,493
  1,671
  1,856
  2,053
  2,260
  2,476
  2,701
  2,935
  3,179
  3,433
  3,697
  3,971
  4,256
  4,553
  4,861
  5,181
  5,514
  5,860
  6,221
  6,597
  6,988
  7,397
Operating income, $m
  30
  42
  52
  62
  74
  86
  100
  115
  131
  147
  165
  186
  206
  226
  248
  271
  294
  319
  344
  370
  398
  426
  456
  487
  519
  552
  587
  623
  661
  700
  741
EBITDA, $m
  90
  76
  92
  110
  130
  152
  176
  201
  228
  257
  288
  320
  354
  390
  427
  466
  507
  549
  593
  638
  685
  735
  786
  839
  894
  952
  1,011
  1,074
  1,138
  1,206
  1,277
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  0
  2
  3
  5
  8
  10
  13
  15
  18
  22
  25
  28
  32
  36
  40
  44
  49
  54
  58
  63
  68
  74
  79
  85
  91
  98
  104
  111
  118
  126
Earnings before tax, $m
  21
  42
  50
  58
  68
  79
  90
  102
  115
  129
  144
  161
  177
  194
  212
  230
  250
  270
  290
  312
  335
  358
  382
  407
  434
  461
  489
  519
  550
  582
  616
Tax expense, $m
  4
  11
  13
  16
  18
  21
  24
  28
  31
  35
  39
  43
  48
  52
  57
  62
  67
  73
  78
  84
  90
  97
  103
  110
  117
  124
  132
  140
  148
  157
  166
Net income, $m
  126
  31
  36
  43
  50
  57
  66
  75
  84
  94
  105
  118
  129
  142
  155
  168
  182
  197
  212
  228
  244
  261
  279
  297
  317
  337
  357
  379
  401
  425
  449

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  211
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  449
  292
  354
  423
  500
  583
  674
  772
  877
  988
  1,106
  1,230
  1,361
  1,498
  1,641
  1,790
  1,945
  2,107
  2,275
  2,450
  2,632
  2,821
  3,017
  3,221
  3,434
  3,654
  3,884
  4,123
  4,372
  4,632
  4,902
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  238
  292
  354
  423
  500
  583
  674
  772
  877
  988
  1,106
  1,230
  1,361
  1,498
  1,641
  1,790
  1,945
  2,107
  2,275
  2,450
  2,632
  2,821
  3,017
  3,221
  3,434
  3,654
  3,884
  4,123
  4,372
  4,632
  4,902
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.660
  1.661
  1.661
  1.662
  1.658
  1.660
  1.660
  1.659
  1.659
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
Average production assets, $m
  130
  160
  193
  231
  273
  319
  368
  422
  479
  540
  604
  672
  743
  818
  896
  978
  1,062
  1,151
  1,243
  1,338
  1,438
  1,541
  1,648
  1,759
  1,875
  1,996
  2,121
  2,252
  2,388
  2,530
  2,677
Working capital, $m
  179
  -39
  -48
  -57
  -67
  -78
  -91
  -104
  -118
  -133
  -149
  -165
  -183
  -201
  -221
  -241
  -262
  -283
  -306
  -329
  -354
  -379
  -406
  -433
  -462
  -491
  -522
  -554
  -588
  -623
  -659
Total debt, $m
  3
  30
  60
  94
  132
  173
  218
  266
  317
  372
  430
  491
  556
  623
  693
  767
  843
  923
  1,006
  1,092
  1,181
  1,274
  1,371
  1,471
  1,575
  1,684
  1,797
  1,915
  2,037
  2,165
  2,298
Total liabilities, $m
  118
  144
  174
  208
  246
  287
  332
  380
  431
  486
  544
  605
  670
  737
  807
  881
  957
  1,037
  1,120
  1,206
  1,295
  1,388
  1,485
  1,585
  1,689
  1,798
  1,911
  2,029
  2,151
  2,279
  2,412
Total equity, $m
  332
  149
  180
  215
  254
  296
  342
  392
  445
  502
  562
  625
  691
  761
  833
  909
  988
  1,070
  1,156
  1,245
  1,337
  1,433
  1,533
  1,636
  1,744
  1,856
  1,973
  2,095
  2,221
  2,353
  2,490
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  450
  293
  354
  423
  500
  583
  674
  772
  876
  988
  1,106
  1,230
  1,361
  1,498
  1,640
  1,790
  1,945
  2,107
  2,276
  2,451
  2,632
  2,821
  3,018
  3,221
  3,433
  3,654
  3,884
  4,124
  4,372
  4,632
  4,902
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.009
  0.200
  0.330
  0.440
  0.520
  0.580
  0.640
  0.680
  0.710
  0.740
  0.770
  0.790
  0.800
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.890
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  126
  31
  36
  43
  50
  57
  66
  75
  84
  94
  105
  118
  129
  142
  155
  168
  182
  197
  212
  228
  244
  261
  279
  297
  317
  337
  357
  379
  401
  425
  449
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  60
  34
  41
  48
  57
  66
  76
  86
  98
  110
  123
  134
  149
  164
  179
  196
  212
  230
  249
  268
  288
  308
  330
  352
  375
  399
  424
  450
  478
  506
  535
Funds from operations, $m
  70
  65
  77
  91
  106
  123
  141
  161
  182
  204
  228
  252
  278
  305
  334
  364
  395
  427
  461
  495
  532
  569
  609
  649
  692
  736
  782
  829
  879
  931
  985
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
Cash from operations, $m
  74
  72
  85
  100
  117
  134
  153
  174
  196
  219
  243
  269
  296
  324
  353
  384
  416
  449
  483
  519
  556
  595
  635
  677
  720
  765
  812
  861
  912
  966
  1,021
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -26
  -32
  -39
  -46
  -55
  -64
  -74
  -84
  -96
  -108
  -121
  -134
  -149
  -164
  -179
  -196
  -212
  -230
  -249
  -268
  -288
  -308
  -330
  -352
  -375
  -399
  -424
  -450
  -478
  -506
New CAPEX, $m
  -66
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -125
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -148
Cash from investing activities, $m
  492
  -56
  -66
  -77
  -88
  -101
  -114
  -127
  -141
  -157
  -172
  -189
  -205
  -224
  -242
  -260
  -281
  -300
  -322
  -345
  -367
  -391
  -415
  -441
  -468
  -496
  -524
  -555
  -586
  -620
  -654
Free cash flow, $m
  566
  16
  20
  24
  29
  34
  40
  47
  54
  62
  71
  80
  90
  100
  111
  123
  135
  148
  161
  175
  189
  204
  220
  236
  252
  270
  288
  307
  326
  346
  367
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -337
  27
  30
  34
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  133
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -340
  27
  30
  34
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  133
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  225
  43
  50
  58
  66
  75
  85
  95
  106
  117
  129
  141
  154
  168
  182
  196
  212
  228
  244
  261
  279
  297
  316
  336
  357
  378
  401
  424
  449
  474
  501
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -116
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -121
  -127
  -132
  -137
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  211
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  227
  19
  23
  27
  33
  39
  45
  53
  61
  69
  78
  88
  98
  109
  121
  133
  145
  158
  172
  186
  201
  217
  232
  249
  266
  284
  303
  322
  342
  363
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  217
  17
  20
  23
  25
  28
  31
  33
  35
  36
  37
  37
  37
  37
  35
  34
  32
  29
  27
  24
  21
  18
  15
  13
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Bob Evans Farms, Inc. (Bob Evans) is a producer and distributor of refrigerated potato, pasta and vegetable-based side dishes, pork sausage, and a variety of refrigerated and frozen food items under the Bob Evans and Owens or Country Creek brand names. The Company’s food products are distributed to customers throughout the United States. Additionally, the Company manufactures and sells similar products to foodservice customers, restaurants and food sellers. The Company operates through BEF Foods segment. The BEF Foods segment offers a range of wholesome food products to retail and foodservice customers. The Company produces food products in its four manufacturing facilities. It produces sausage products at its plants located in Hillsdale, Michigan, and Xenia, Ohio.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Bob Evans Farms (BOBE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.1
Price to Sales 3.9
Price to Book 4.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 190.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -19.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0.9%
Total Debt to Equity 0.9%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 21.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Return On Total Capital 28.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Return On Equity 46%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.2%
EBITDA Margin 23%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.2%
Operating Margin 7.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Net Profit Margin 31.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.2%
Effective Tax Rate 19%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.9%
Payout Ratio 21.4%

BOBE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BOBE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $395 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Bob Evans Farms. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Bob Evans Farms. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BOBE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 22.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BOBE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Bob Evans Farms, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Bob Evans Farms.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BOBE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BOBE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.8% for Bob Evans Farms.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Bob Evans Farms. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BOBE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BOBE are equal to 32.9%.

Life of production assets of 2.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Bob Evans Farms operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BOBE is equal to -8.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $332 million for Bob Evans Farms - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 20.173 million for Bob Evans Farms is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Bob Evans Farms at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Travelport Worldwide Set to Join S&P SmallCap 600   [Jan-11-18 06:12PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Meal Timing Is Most Stressful Part of Christmas Dinner   [Dec-13-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Bob Evans posts 2Q profit   [Dec-06-17 07:13AM  Associated Press]
▶ IBM, Bob Evans agree to cancel state incentives after failing to create promised jobs   [Dec-05-17 10:19AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Bob Evans Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-28-17 04:01PM  Marketwired]
▶ Acquisitions Drive Growth at Post Holdings Inc   [Nov-17-17 12:53PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Growth Stocks To Watch Out For In November   [12:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Deal Cut for Dowdy Ruby Tuesday Is No Gem   [Oct-18-17 12:00PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Stocks With Rising Relative Strength: Wendy's   [Sep-27-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Bob Evans operations staying in Central Ohio   [Sep-20-17 05:00PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Post Holdings to Buy Bob Evans Packaged Food Business   [05:34PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Stocks Edge Higher; Adobe Falls After Hours Following Earnings   [04:27PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Sausage Is In, Cereal Is Out   [10:44AM  Bloomberg]
▶ Bob Evans sells in $1.5B deal   [09:54AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Bob Evans posts 1Q profit   [Aug-31-17 08:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [05:05PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Acquisition, new customers boost Bob Evans sales   [03:57PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Bob Evans Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-23-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for July 10th   [Jul-10-17 10:21AM  Zacks]
▶ Bob Evans Made Enough Bacon for This Investor, So I'm Out   [Jun-28-17 11:00AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [Jun-15-17 11:47AM  Briefing.com]
▶ Bob Evans posts 4Q profit   [07:33AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of BOBE
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