Intrinsic value of DMC Global Inc. - BOOM

Previous Close

$62.98

  Intrinsic Value

$1,663

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$62.98

 
Intrinsic value

$1,663

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of BOOM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  522
  806
  1,205
  1,749
  2,467
  3,392
  4,553
  5,978
  7,692
  9,716
  12,065
  14,750
  17,779
  21,154
  24,873
  28,933
  33,329
  38,052
  43,096
  48,453
  54,115
  60,078
  66,336
  72,886
  79,728
  86,862
  94,292
  102,022
  110,060
  118,414
Variable operating expenses, $m
  322
  493
  732
  1,058
  1,489
  2,044
  2,740
  3,595
  4,624
  5,838
  7,237
  8,848
  10,665
  12,689
  14,920
  17,356
  19,993
  22,826
  25,852
  29,065
  32,462
  36,038
  39,792
  43,721
  47,825
  52,105
  56,562
  61,199
  66,021
  71,032
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  87
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
  99
  101
  103
  106
  108
  110
  113
  115
  118
  120
  123
  126
  129
  131
  134
  137
  140
  143
  146
  150
  153
  156
  160
  163
Total operating expenses, $m
  409
  582
  823
  1,151
  1,584
  2,141
  2,839
  3,696
  4,727
  5,944
  7,345
  8,958
  10,778
  12,804
  15,038
  17,476
  20,116
  22,952
  25,981
  29,196
  32,596
  36,175
  39,932
  43,864
  47,971
  52,255
  56,715
  61,355
  66,181
  71,195
Operating income, $m
  112
  224
  382
  597
  883
  1,251
  1,713
  2,281
  2,965
  3,773
  4,720
  5,792
  7,001
  8,349
  9,835
  11,457
  13,213
  15,100
  17,116
  19,257
  21,520
  23,902
  26,403
  29,021
  31,756
  34,608
  37,577
  40,667
  43,880
  47,219
EBITDA, $m
  136
  256
  424
  655
  960
  1,353
  1,847
  2,454
  3,185
  4,047
  5,049
  6,195
  7,487
  8,927
  10,514
  12,247
  14,123
  16,140
  18,293
  20,580
  22,998
  25,543
  28,215
  31,012
  33,933
  36,980
  40,152
  43,453
  46,886
  50,453
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  2
  6
  11
  18
  27
  40
  56
  76
  101
  132
  167
  208
  256
  309
  368
  433
  505
  582
  665
  753
  847
  947
  1,052
  1,161
  1,277
  1,397
  1,522
  1,652
  1,788
  1,929
Earnings before tax, $m
  110
  219
  371
  580
  856
  1,211
  1,657
  2,205
  2,864
  3,641
  4,553
  5,583
  6,746
  8,040
  9,467
  11,024
  12,708
  14,519
  16,451
  18,503
  20,672
  22,956
  25,352
  27,860
  30,479
  33,211
  36,055
  39,015
  42,092
  45,290
Tax expense, $m
  30
  59
  100
  157
  231
  327
  447
  595
  773
  983
  1,229
  1,508
  1,821
  2,171
  2,556
  2,976
  3,431
  3,920
  4,442
  4,996
  5,581
  6,198
  6,845
  7,522
  8,229
  8,967
  9,735
  10,534
  11,365
  12,228
Net income, $m
  80
  160
  271
  423
  625
  884
  1,210
  1,610
  2,090
  2,658
  3,323
  4,076
  4,924
  5,870
  6,911
  8,047
  9,277
  10,599
  12,009
  13,507
  15,091
  16,758
  18,507
  20,338
  22,250
  24,244
  26,320
  28,481
  30,727
  33,062

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  385
  594
  889
  1,290
  1,819
  2,501
  3,357
  4,408
  5,673
  7,165
  8,897
  10,878
  13,111
  15,600
  18,343
  21,337
  24,579
  28,062
  31,782
  35,732
  39,908
  44,305
  48,920
  53,751
  58,796
  64,058
  69,537
  75,238
  81,165
  87,326
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  385
  594
  889
  1,290
  1,819
  2,501
  3,357
  4,408
  5,673
  7,165
  8,897
  10,878
  13,111
  15,600
  18,343
  21,337
  24,579
  28,062
  31,782
  35,732
  39,908
  44,305
  48,920
  53,751
  58,796
  64,058
  69,537
  75,238
  81,165
  87,326
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.356
  1.357
  1.355
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
  1.356
Average production assets, $m
  132
  205
  306
  444
  627
  861
  1,156
  1,518
  1,954
  2,468
  3,064
  3,747
  4,516
  5,373
  6,318
  7,349
  8,465
  9,665
  10,946
  12,307
  13,745
  15,260
  16,849
  18,513
  20,251
  22,063
  23,950
  25,914
  27,955
  30,077
Working capital, $m
  92
  142
  212
  308
  434
  597
  801
  1,052
  1,354
  1,710
  2,123
  2,596
  3,129
  3,723
  4,378
  5,092
  5,866
  6,697
  7,585
  8,528
  9,524
  10,574
  11,675
  12,828
  14,032
  15,288
  16,595
  17,956
  19,371
  20,841
Total debt, $m
  105
  197
  327
  504
  738
  1,038
  1,416
  1,879
  2,437
  3,095
  3,859
  4,732
  5,717
  6,815
  8,024
  9,345
  10,774
  12,311
  13,951
  15,693
  17,535
  19,474
  21,509
  23,639
  25,864
  28,185
  30,601
  33,115
  35,729
  38,446
Total liabilities, $m
  170
  262
  392
  569
  802
  1,103
  1,481
  1,944
  2,502
  3,160
  3,924
  4,797
  5,782
  6,880
  8,089
  9,410
  10,839
  12,375
  14,016
  15,758
  17,599
  19,539
  21,574
  23,704
  25,929
  28,249
  30,666
  33,180
  35,794
  38,511
Total equity, $m
  215
  332
  497
  721
  1,017
  1,398
  1,877
  2,464
  3,171
  4,005
  4,974
  6,081
  7,329
  8,720
  10,254
  11,927
  13,739
  15,687
  17,766
  19,974
  22,309
  24,767
  27,346
  30,047
  32,867
  35,808
  38,871
  42,058
  45,371
  48,815
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  385
  594
  889
  1,290
  1,819
  2,501
  3,358
  4,408
  5,673
  7,165
  8,898
  10,878
  13,111
  15,600
  18,343
  21,337
  24,578
  28,062
  31,782
  35,732
  39,908
  44,306
  48,920
  53,751
  58,796
  64,057
  69,537
  75,238
  81,165
  87,326
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.490
  0.590
  0.660
  0.700
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.770
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.790
  0.790
  0.790
  0.790
  0.790
  0.790
  0.790
  0.790
  0.790
  0.790
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  80
  160
  271
  423
  625
  884
  1,210
  1,610
  2,090
  2,658
  3,323
  4,076
  4,924
  5,870
  6,911
  8,047
  9,277
  10,599
  12,009
  13,507
  15,091
  16,758
  18,507
  20,338
  22,250
  24,244
  26,320
  28,481
  30,727
  33,062
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  32
  42
  57
  77
  102
  134
  173
  220
  275
  330
  403
  486
  578
  679
  790
  910
  1,039
  1,177
  1,323
  1,478
  1,641
  1,812
  1,991
  2,178
  2,372
  2,575
  2,786
  3,006
  3,234
Funds from operations, $m
  104
  191
  314
  481
  702
  986
  1,344
  1,782
  2,310
  2,933
  3,653
  4,479
  5,410
  6,447
  7,590
  8,837
  10,187
  11,638
  13,186
  14,831
  16,569
  18,398
  20,319
  22,328
  24,428
  26,616
  28,896
  31,267
  33,733
  36,296
Change in working capital, $m
  34
  50
  70
  96
  126
  163
  204
  251
  302
  356
  413
  473
  533
  594
  655
  715
  774
  831
  888
  943
  997
  1,049
  1,101
  1,153
  1,204
  1,256
  1,308
  1,361
  1,415
  1,470
Cash from operations, $m
  70
  141
  243
  385
  575
  823
  1,139
  1,531
  2,008
  2,577
  3,239
  4,006
  4,877
  5,853
  6,936
  8,123
  9,414
  10,807
  12,299
  13,888
  15,572
  17,349
  19,217
  21,176
  23,223
  25,361
  27,588
  29,907
  32,318
  34,825
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -14
  -22
  -33
  -48
  -67
  -93
  -124
  -163
  -210
  -265
  -330
  -403
  -486
  -578
  -679
  -790
  -910
  -1,039
  -1,177
  -1,323
  -1,478
  -1,641
  -1,812
  -1,991
  -2,178
  -2,372
  -2,575
  -2,786
  -3,006
New CAPEX, $m
  -50
  -72
  -101
  -138
  -182
  -235
  -295
  -362
  -435
  -514
  -597
  -682
  -769
  -857
  -945
  -1,031
  -1,116
  -1,200
  -1,281
  -1,361
  -1,438
  -1,514
  -1,589
  -1,664
  -1,738
  -1,812
  -1,887
  -1,963
  -2,042
  -2,122
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -59
  -86
  -123
  -171
  -230
  -302
  -388
  -486
  -598
  -724
  -862
  -1,012
  -1,172
  -1,343
  -1,523
  -1,710
  -1,906
  -2,110
  -2,320
  -2,538
  -2,761
  -2,992
  -3,230
  -3,476
  -3,729
  -3,990
  -4,259
  -4,538
  -4,828
  -5,128
Free cash flow, $m
  11
  55
  120
  214
  345
  521
  752
  1,045
  1,410
  1,852
  2,377
  2,994
  3,705
  4,511
  5,413
  6,412
  7,507
  8,697
  9,978
  11,350
  12,810
  14,357
  15,987
  17,700
  19,495
  21,371
  23,328
  25,368
  27,490
  29,697
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  64
  92
  130
  177
  234
  301
  378
  464
  557
  658
  764
  873
  985
  1,097
  1,210
  1,320
  1,429
  1,536
  1,640
  1,742
  1,842
  1,939
  2,035
  2,130
  2,225
  2,320
  2,416
  2,514
  2,614
  2,717
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  64
  92
  130
  177
  234
  301
  378
  464
  557
  658
  764
  873
  985
  1,097
  1,210
  1,320
  1,429
  1,536
  1,640
  1,742
  1,842
  1,939
  2,035
  2,130
  2,225
  2,320
  2,416
  2,514
  2,614
  2,717
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  75
  147
  250
  391
  579
  822
  1,129
  1,509
  1,967
  2,511
  3,141
  3,868
  4,690
  5,608
  6,623
  7,733
  8,937
  10,233
  11,619
  13,092
  14,652
  16,296
  18,022
  19,830
  21,720
  23,691
  25,745
  27,882
  30,104
  32,414
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -81
  -117
  -165
  -224
  -296
  -381
  -479
  -588
  -707
  -834
  -968
  -1,107
  -1,249
  -1,391
  -1,533
  -1,674
  -1,812
  -1,947
  -2,079
  -2,208
  -2,334
  -2,458
  -2,580
  -2,700
  -2,821
  -2,941
  -3,063
  -3,187
  -3,313
  -3,444
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -6
  30
  85
  167
  282
  441
  651
  921
  1,260
  1,676
  2,173
  2,761
  3,441
  4,217
  5,089
  6,059
  7,125
  8,285
  9,539
  10,884
  12,318
  13,838
  15,442
  17,130
  18,899
  20,750
  22,682
  24,695
  26,791
  28,970
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -5
  27
  74
  137
  219
  320
  440
  576
  724
  879
  1,032
  1,178
  1,308
  1,416
  1,494
  1,540
  1,550
  1,526
  1,469
  1,383
  1,274
  1,148
  1,012
  872
  735
  605
  487
  382
  292
  218
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

DMC Global Inc., formerly Dynamic Materials Corporation, is a diversified technology company. The Company operates a family of technical product and process businesses serving the energy, industrial and infrastructure markets. The Company's businesses operate through an international network of manufacturing, distribution and sales facilities. The Company's segments are NobelClad and DynaEnergetics. The NobelClad segment is engaged in the production of explosion-welded clad metal plates for use in the construction of corrosion resistant industrial processing equipment and specialized transition joints. The DynaEnergetics segment manufactures, markets and sells oilfield perforating equipment and explosives, including detonating cords, detonators, bi-directional boosters and shaped charges, and seismic related explosives and accessories. It owns explosive metalworking and metallic processes, and registered trademarks, including Detaclad, Detacouple, EFTEK, ETJ 2000 and NOBELCLAD.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  DMC Global Inc. (BOOM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -130.5
Price to Sales 5.7
Price to Book 8.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 50.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 76.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 20%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -17.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 14.3%
Total Debt to Equity 14.3%
Interest Coverage -5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -3.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.5%
Return On Total Capital -5.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.1%
Return On Equity -6.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.3%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.4%
EBITDA Margin 3.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Operating Margin -3.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -3.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.5%
Net Profit Margin -4.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.8%
Effective Tax Rate -16.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.2%
Payout Ratio -14.3%

BOOM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BOOM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $326 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by DMC Global Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of DMC Global Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BOOM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BOOM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of DMC Global Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of DMC Global Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BOOM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 62.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $85 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BOOM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for DMC Global Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for DMC Global Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BOOM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BOOM are equal to 25.4%.

Life of production assets of 9.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in DMC Global Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BOOM is equal to 17.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $134.286 million for DMC Global Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 14.903 million for DMC Global Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of DMC Global Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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