Intrinsic value of Boot Barn Holdings - BOOT

Previous Close

$22.57

  Intrinsic Value

$35.73

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+58%

Previous close

$22.57

 
Intrinsic value

$35.73

 
Up/down potential

+58%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of BOOT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  16.20
  15.08
  14.07
  13.16
  12.35
  11.61
  10.95
  10.36
  9.82
  9.34
  8.91
  8.51
  8.16
  7.85
  7.56
  7.31
  7.08
  6.87
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.23
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.59
  5.53
Revenue, $m
  788
  907
  1,034
  1,170
  1,315
  1,467
  1,628
  1,797
  1,973
  2,158
  2,350
  2,550
  2,758
  2,974
  3,199
  3,433
  3,676
  3,928
  4,191
  4,464
  4,748
  5,043
  5,351
  5,672
  6,006
  6,355
  6,718
  7,098
  7,495
  7,909
Variable operating expenses, $m
  645
  738
  839
  946
  1,059
  1,179
  1,306
  1,438
  1,577
  1,722
  1,847
  2,005
  2,168
  2,338
  2,515
  2,699
  2,890
  3,088
  3,295
  3,509
  3,733
  3,965
  4,207
  4,459
  4,722
  4,996
  5,282
  5,580
  5,892
  6,218
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  77
  78
  80
  82
  84
  85
  87
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
  100
  102
  104
  106
  109
  111
  113
  116
  118
  121
  124
  126
  129
  132
  135
  138
  141
  144
Total operating expenses, $m
  722
  816
  919
  1,028
  1,143
  1,264
  1,393
  1,527
  1,668
  1,815
  1,942
  2,102
  2,268
  2,440
  2,619
  2,805
  2,999
  3,199
  3,408
  3,625
  3,851
  4,086
  4,331
  4,585
  4,851
  5,128
  5,417
  5,718
  6,033
  6,362
Operating income, $m
  66
  90
  115
  143
  172
  203
  235
  269
  305
  342
  407
  448
  490
  534
  580
  628
  677
  729
  783
  839
  897
  957
  1,021
  1,086
  1,155
  1,227
  1,302
  1,380
  1,462
  1,547
EBITDA, $m
  104
  130
  157
  187
  218
  252
  287
  323
  362
  402
  444
  488
  534
  581
  631
  682
  736
  791
  849
  909
  972
  1,037
  1,105
  1,176
  1,250
  1,327
  1,408
  1,492
  1,580
  1,672
Interest expense (income), $m
  14
  14
  18
  23
  28
  33
  38
  44
  50
  56
  63
  70
  77
  84
  92
  100
  109
  118
  127
  136
  146
  156
  167
  178
  189
  201
  214
  227
  241
  255
  270
Earnings before tax, $m
  52
  71
  92
  115
  139
  164
  191
  219
  249
  280
  337
  371
  406
  442
  480
  519
  560
  602
  647
  693
  741
  791
  843
  897
  954
  1,013
  1,075
  1,139
  1,207
  1,277
Tax expense, $m
  14
  19
  25
  31
  38
  44
  52
  59
  67
  75
  91
  100
  110
  119
  130
  140
  151
  163
  175
  187
  200
  213
  228
  242
  257
  273
  290
  308
  326
  345
Net income, $m
  38
  52
  68
  84
  102
  120
  140
  160
  182
  204
  246
  271
  296
  323
  350
  379
  409
  440
  472
  506
  541
  577
  615
  655
  696
  739
  785
  832
  881
  933

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  683
  786
  897
  1,015
  1,140
  1,273
  1,412
  1,558
  1,711
  1,871
  2,038
  2,211
  2,392
  2,580
  2,775
  2,978
  3,188
  3,407
  3,635
  3,871
  4,118
  4,374
  4,641
  4,919
  5,209
  5,511
  5,827
  6,156
  6,500
  6,859
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  683
  786
  897
  1,015
  1,140
  1,273
  1,412
  1,558
  1,711
  1,871
  2,038
  2,211
  2,392
  2,580
  2,775
  2,978
  3,188
  3,407
  3,635
  3,871
  4,118
  4,374
  4,641
  4,919
  5,209
  5,511
  5,827
  6,156
  6,500
  6,859
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.154
  1.154
  1.153
  1.153
  1.154
  1.152
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
Average production assets, $m
  249
  286
  327
  370
  415
  464
  515
  568
  624
  682
  743
  806
  872
  940
  1,011
  1,085
  1,162
  1,241
  1,324
  1,411
  1,500
  1,594
  1,691
  1,792
  1,898
  2,008
  2,123
  2,243
  2,368
  2,499
Working capital, $m
  119
  137
  156
  177
  199
  222
  246
  271
  298
  326
  355
  385
  416
  449
  483
  518
  555
  593
  633
  674
  717
  762
  808
  856
  907
  960
  1,014
  1,072
  1,132
  1,194
Total debt, $m
  272
  337
  408
  483
  562
  646
  735
  828
  925
  1,026
  1,132
  1,242
  1,357
  1,476
  1,600
  1,729
  1,863
  2,002
  2,146
  2,297
  2,453
  2,616
  2,785
  2,962
  3,146
  3,338
  3,538
  3,747
  3,966
  4,194
Total liabilities, $m
  434
  499
  570
  645
  724
  808
  897
  990
  1,087
  1,188
  1,294
  1,404
  1,519
  1,638
  1,762
  1,891
  2,024
  2,164
  2,308
  2,458
  2,615
  2,778
  2,947
  3,124
  3,308
  3,500
  3,700
  3,909
  4,128
  4,356
Total equity, $m
  249
  287
  327
  370
  416
  465
  515
  569
  625
  683
  744
  807
  873
  942
  1,013
  1,087
  1,164
  1,244
  1,327
  1,413
  1,503
  1,597
  1,694
  1,796
  1,901
  2,012
  2,127
  2,247
  2,373
  2,504
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  683
  786
  897
  1,015
  1,140
  1,273
  1,412
  1,559
  1,712
  1,871
  2,038
  2,211
  2,392
  2,580
  2,775
  2,978
  3,188
  3,408
  3,635
  3,871
  4,118
  4,375
  4,641
  4,920
  5,209
  5,512
  5,827
  6,156
  6,501
  6,860
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.090
  1.180
  1.250
  1.300
  1.350
  1.390
  1.430
  1.460
  1.480
  1.500
  1.520
  1.540
  1.550
  1.570
  1.580
  1.590
  1.600
  1.610
  1.620
  1.630
  1.630
  1.640
  1.640
  1.650
  1.650
  1.660
  1.660
  1.670
  1.670
  1.680
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  38
  52
  68
  84
  102
  120
  140
  160
  182
  204
  246
  271
  296
  323
  350
  379
  409
  440
  472
  506
  541
  577
  615
  655
  696
  739
  785
  832
  881
  933
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  37
  40
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  125
Funds from operations, $m
  76
  92
  109
  128
  148
  169
  191
  214
  238
  264
  283
  311
  340
  370
  401
  433
  467
  502
  538
  576
  616
  657
  700
  744
  791
  840
  891
  944
  999
  1,057
Change in working capital, $m
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
Cash from operations, $m
  59
  74
  90
  108
  126
  146
  167
  189
  212
  236
  254
  281
  308
  337
  367
  398
  430
  464
  499
  535
  573
  612
  653
  696
  741
  787
  836
  886
  940
  995
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
New CAPEX, $m
  -34
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -131
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -45
  -50
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -161
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -237
  -249
Free cash flow, $m
  14
  24
  36
  48
  62
  77
  93
  110
  128
  147
  160
  180
  202
  225
  249
  273
  299
  326
  354
  382
  413
  444
  476
  510
  545
  582
  620
  660
  702
  746
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  61
  65
  70
  75
  80
  84
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  150
  156
  163
  170
  177
  184
  192
  200
  209
  218
  228
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  61
  65
  70
  75
  80
  84
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  150
  156
  163
  170
  177
  184
  192
  200
  209
  218
  228
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  75
  90
  106
  123
  142
  161
  181
  203
  225
  248
  265
  291
  317
  344
  373
  402
  433
  465
  498
  533
  569
  607
  646
  687
  729
  774
  821
  869
  920
  974
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -131
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  40
  52
  65
  80
  96
  113
  130
  149
  169
  190
  205
  227
  251
  276
  301
  328
  356
  385
  415
  446
  479
  513
  548
  585
  624
  664
  706
  749
  795
  843
Discount rate, %
  7.30
  7.67
  8.05
  8.45
  8.87
  9.32
  9.78
  10.27
  10.79
  11.32
  11.89
  12.49
  13.11
  13.77
  14.45
  15.18
  15.93
  16.73
  17.57
  18.45
  19.37
  20.34
  21.35
  22.42
  23.54
  24.72
  25.96
  27.25
  28.62
  30.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  37
  45
  52
  58
  63
  66
  68
  68
  67
  65
  59
  55
  51
  45
  40
  34
  29
  24
  19
  15
  12
  9
  6
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. is a lifestyle retailer of western and work-related footwear, apparel and accessories for men, women and children. The Company's stores are located in or near neighborhood shopping centers with trade areas of approximately five or more miles, and it has opened stores in malls and outlet center locations. The Company's stores average an area of approximately 11,490 square feet and feature an assortment of brands and styles. It also carries assortments of denim, western shirts, cowboy hats, belts and belt buckles, western-style jewelry and accessories. The Company's western assortment includes various brands, such as Ariat, Dan Post, Justin, Levi Strauss, Lucchese, Miss Me, Montana Silversmiths, Resistol and Wrangler. Its work assortment includes rugged footwear, outerwear, overalls, denim and shirts. Its other brands include Carhartt, Georgia, Timberland Pro and Wolverine. As of September 12, 2017, the Company operated 218 stores in 31 states.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 42.8
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 3.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 31.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -38.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 110.6%
Total Debt to Equity 130%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Return On Total Capital 3.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Equity 8.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.4%
EBITDA Margin 8.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Operating Margin 6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Net Profit Margin 2.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Effective Tax Rate 39.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

BOOT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BOOT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $677.949 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Boot Barn Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Boot Barn Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BOOT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 16.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.3%, whose default value for BOOT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Boot Barn Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Boot Barn Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BOOT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $75 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BOOT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.8% for Boot Barn Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Boot Barn Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BOOT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BOOT are equal to 31.6%.

Life of production assets of 20 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Boot Barn Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BOOT is equal to 15.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $214.606 million for Boot Barn Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.996 million for Boot Barn Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Boot Barn Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Boot Barn: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ These 2 Top Footwear Firms Beat EPS Views, But Stocks Diverge   [04:38PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ California-based Boot Barn acquires Drysdales, of Tulsa   [Jul-05-18 01:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Top Retail Stocks to Buy Right Now   [Jun-14-18 01:06PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. Announces Conference Participation   [Jun-04-18 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ 3 Stocks That Tripled in Just 12 Months   [11:31AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Miranda Lambert pairs with Boot Barn for fashion line   [May-29-18 08:33AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Boot Barn: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-15-18 05:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ Boot Barn misses 3Q revenue forecasts   [Jan-31-18 06:53PM  Associated Press]

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