Intrinsic value of Boot Barn Holdings - BOOT

Previous Close

$15.30

  Intrinsic Value

$18.94

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+24%

Previous close

$15.30

 
Intrinsic value

$18.94

 
Up/down potential

+24%

 
Rating

buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BOOT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.72
  10.70
  10.13
  9.62
  9.16
  8.74
  8.37
  8.03
  7.73
  7.45
  7.21
  6.99
  6.79
  6.61
  6.45
  6.30
  6.17
  6.06
  5.95
  5.86
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.51
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
Revenue, $m
  630
  697
  768
  842
  919
  999
  1,083
  1,170
  1,260
  1,354
  1,452
  1,553
  1,659
  1,768
  1,882
  2,001
  2,125
  2,253
  2,387
  2,527
  2,673
  2,825
  2,984
  3,150
  3,323
  3,505
  3,694
  3,892
  4,100
  4,317
  4,545
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  603
  662
  724
  789
  856
  926
  999
  1,075
  1,153
  1,235
  1,301
  1,389
  1,481
  1,576
  1,676
  1,779
  1,887
  1,999
  2,116
  2,238
  2,366
  2,499
  2,638
  2,783
  2,935
  3,093
  3,259
  3,433
  3,615
  3,806
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  47
  48
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  63
  65
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  90
  92
  94
  96
Total operating expenses, $m
  592
  650
  710
  774
  840
  908
  979
  1,054
  1,131
  1,210
  1,294
  1,361
  1,451
  1,544
  1,641
  1,743
  1,847
  1,957
  2,071
  2,190
  2,313
  2,443
  2,578
  2,719
  2,866
  3,020
  3,180
  3,349
  3,525
  3,709
  3,902
Operating income, $m
  38
  47
  57
  68
  79
  91
  103
  116
  130
  143
  158
  192
  208
  224
  241
  259
  277
  296
  317
  337
  359
  382
  406
  431
  457
  485
  513
  543
  575
  608
  643
EBITDA, $m
  55
  74
  85
  97
  109
  122
  135
  149
  163
  178
  194
  210
  227
  245
  263
  282
  302
  322
  344
  367
  390
  415
  440
  467
  496
  525
  556
  588
  622
  658
  695
Interest expense (income), $m
  14
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  124
  131
  139
Earnings before tax, $m
  23
  34
  42
  51
  59
  68
  78
  88
  98
  109
  120
  151
  163
  176
  189
  203
  218
  233
  248
  265
  282
  300
  318
  338
  358
  380
  402
  426
  451
  477
  504
Tax expense, $m
  9
  9
  11
  14
  16
  18
  21
  24
  27
  29
  32
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  103
  109
  115
  122
  129
  136
Net income, $m
  14
  25
  31
  37
  43
  50
  57
  64
  72
  80
  88
  110
  119
  129
  138
  148
  159
  170
  181
  193
  206
  219
  232
  247
  262
  277
  294
  311
  329
  348
  368

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  566
  618
  680
  746
  814
  885
  959
  1,036
  1,116
  1,199
  1,286
  1,376
  1,469
  1,566
  1,667
  1,772
  1,882
  1,996
  2,115
  2,238
  2,368
  2,502
  2,643
  2,790
  2,944
  3,104
  3,272
  3,448
  3,632
  3,824
  4,025
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  558
  618
  680
  746
  814
  885
  959
  1,036
  1,116
  1,199
  1,286
  1,376
  1,469
  1,566
  1,667
  1,772
  1,882
  1,996
  2,115
  2,238
  2,368
  2,502
  2,643
  2,790
  2,944
  3,104
  3,272
  3,448
  3,632
  3,824
  4,025
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.129
  1.128
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
  1.129
Average production assets, $m
  145
  160
  176
  193
  210
  229
  248
  268
  289
  310
  332
  356
  380
  405
  431
  458
  487
  516
  547
  579
  612
  647
  683
  721
  761
  803
  846
  891
  939
  989
  1,041
Working capital, $m
  76
  114
  125
  137
  150
  163
  177
  191
  205
  221
  237
  253
  270
  288
  307
  326
  346
  367
  389
  412
  436
  460
  486
  513
  542
  571
  602
  634
  668
  704
  741
Total debt, $m
  234
  266
  309
  353
  399
  447
  497
  550
  604
  660
  719
  779
  843
  908
  977
  1,048
  1,122
  1,199
  1,280
  1,363
  1,451
  1,542
  1,637
  1,737
  1,841
  1,950
  2,063
  2,182
  2,307
  2,437
  2,573
Total liabilities, $m
  386
  418
  461
  505
  551
  599
  649
  702
  756
  812
  871
  931
  995
  1,060
  1,129
  1,200
  1,274
  1,351
  1,432
  1,515
  1,603
  1,694
  1,789
  1,889
  1,993
  2,102
  2,215
  2,334
  2,459
  2,589
  2,725
Total equity, $m
  180
  200
  220
  241
  263
  286
  310
  335
  361
  387
  415
  444
  475
  506
  539
  572
  608
  645
  683
  723
  765
  808
  854
  901
  951
  1,003
  1,057
  1,114
  1,173
  1,235
  1,300
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  566
  618
  681
  746
  814
  885
  959
  1,037
  1,117
  1,199
  1,286
  1,375
  1,470
  1,566
  1,668
  1,772
  1,882
  1,996
  2,115
  2,238
  2,368
  2,502
  2,643
  2,790
  2,944
  3,105
  3,272
  3,448
  3,632
  3,824
  4,025
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.300
  1.330
  1.400
  1.460
  1.520
  1.560
  1.610
  1.640
  1.670
  1.700
  1.730
  1.750
  1.780
  1.800
  1.810
  1.830
  1.850
  1.860
  1.870
  1.890
  1.900
  1.910
  1.920
  1.930
  1.940
  1.940
  1.950
  1.960
  1.970
  1.970
  1.980
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  14
  25
  31
  37
  43
  50
  57
  64
  72
  80
  88
  110
  119
  129
  138
  148
  159
  170
  181
  193
  206
  219
  232
  247
  262
  277
  294
  311
  329
  348
  368
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  17
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
Funds from operations, $m
  39
  52
  59
  66
  73
  81
  89
  97
  106
  115
  124
  128
  138
  149
  160
  171
  183
  196
  209
  222
  236
  251
  267
  283
  300
  318
  336
  356
  376
  398
  420
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
Cash from operations, $m
  41
  41
  47
  54
  61
  68
  75
  83
  91
  99
  108
  112
  121
  131
  141
  152
  163
  175
  187
  199
  213
  226
  241
  256
  272
  288
  305
  323
  342
  362
  383
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
New CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -24
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
Free cash flow, $m
  17
  19
  23
  28
  33
  39
  44
  50
  57
  63
  70
  72
  79
  87
  95
  103
  112
  121
  130
  140
  150
  161
  172
  183
  196
  208
  222
  235
  250
  265
  281
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -18
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -17
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  59
  66
  72
  79
  87
  95
  103
  111
  120
  129
  133
  142
  153
  163
  174
  186
  198
  211
  224
  238
  252
  267
  283
  300
  317
  335
  354
  374
  395
  418
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  39
  45
  51
  57
  64
  71
  78
  85
  93
  101
  104
  112
  121
  131
  140
  151
  161
  172
  184
  196
  208
  222
  235
  250
  265
  281
  298
  315
  333
  353
Discount rate, %
 
  8.50
  8.93
  9.37
  9.84
  10.33
  10.85
  11.39
  11.96
  12.56
  13.19
  13.85
  14.54
  15.26
  16.03
  16.83
  17.67
  18.55
  19.48
  20.46
  21.48
  22.55
  23.68
  24.86
  26.11
  27.41
  28.78
  30.22
  31.73
  33.32
  34.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  36
  38
  39
  39
  39
  38
  37
  34
  32
  29
  25
  22
  19
  16
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. is a lifestyle retailer of western and work-related footwear, apparel and accessories for men, women and children. The Company's stores are located in or near neighborhood shopping centers with trade areas of approximately five or more miles, and it has opened stores in malls and outlet center locations. The Company's stores average an area of approximately 11,490 square feet and feature an assortment of brands and styles. It also carries assortments of denim, western shirts, cowboy hats, belts and belt buckles, western-style jewelry and accessories. The Company's western assortment includes various brands, such as Ariat, Dan Post, Justin, Levi Strauss, Lucchese, Miss Me, Montana Silversmiths, Resistol and Wrangler. Its work assortment includes rugged footwear, outerwear, overalls, denim and shirts. Its other brands include Carhartt, Georgia, Timberland Pro and Wolverine. As of September 12, 2017, the Company operated 218 stores in 31 states.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -38.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 110.6%
Total Debt to Equity 130%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Return On Total Capital 3.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Equity 8.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.4%
EBITDA Margin 8.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Operating Margin 6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Net Profit Margin 2.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Effective Tax Rate 39.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

BOOT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BOOT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $630 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Boot Barn Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Boot Barn Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BOOT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.5%, whose default value for BOOT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Boot Barn Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Boot Barn Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BOOT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $46 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BOOT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.7% for Boot Barn Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Boot Barn Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BOOT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BOOT are equal to 22.9%.

Life of production assets of 19.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Boot Barn Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BOOT is equal to 16.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $180 million for Boot Barn Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 26.593 million for Boot Barn Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Boot Barn Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Best ETFs & Stocks From November's Top Sector   [Nov-30-17 11:32AM  Zacks]
▶ Boot Barn Announces Miranda Lambert Idyllwind Trunk Shows   [Nov-14-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Boot Barn beats Street 2Q forecasts   [Nov-02-17 07:05PM  Associated Press]
▶ Boot Barn Supporting Troops with Socks for Soldiers Event   [Oct-19-17 06:55AM  Business Wire]
▶ Boot Barn buys Texas chain, reopens most of Houston-area stores   [Sep-13-17 04:15PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Why Boot Barn Holdings Inc. Stock Popped Today   [Aug-02-17 08:39PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Boot Barn tops Street 1Q forecasts   [Aug-01-17 11:30PM  Associated Press]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [12:17PM  Briefing.com]
▶ Boot Barn misses Street 4Q forecasts   [Jun-01-17 04:38PM  Associated Press]
▶ National apparel retailer opens a second Louisville-area location   [Apr-19-17 07:25AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Why These 7 Stocks Are Poised to Explode   [09:58AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Boot Barn meets 3Q profit forecasts   [05:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ Boot Barn Remains Open Amidst Artegon Marketplace Closure   [Jan-13-17 10:16PM  Business Wire]
▶ Should You Buy Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT)?   [Dec-11-16 04:40AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of BOOT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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