Intrinsic value of Box, Inc. - BOX

Previous Close

$19.90

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$19.90

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of BOX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  20.60
  19.04
  17.64
  16.37
  15.24
  14.21
  13.29
  12.46
  11.72
  11.04
  10.44
  9.90
  9.41
  8.97
  8.57
  8.21
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.73
Revenue, $m
  610
  726
  855
  994
  1,146
  1,309
  1,483
  1,668
  1,863
  2,069
  2,285
  2,511
  2,747
  2,993
  3,250
  3,516
  3,794
  4,082
  4,382
  4,693
  5,017
  5,354
  5,703
  6,067
  6,446
  6,841
  7,252
  7,680
  8,127
  8,593
Variable operating expenses, $m
  631
  750
  882
  1,027
  1,183
  1,351
  1,530
  1,721
  1,922
  2,134
  2,355
  2,588
  2,831
  3,085
  3,350
  3,625
  3,911
  4,208
  4,517
  4,838
  5,172
  5,519
  5,879
  6,255
  6,645
  7,052
  7,475
  7,917
  8,378
  8,858
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  143
  146
  149
  153
  156
  160
  163
  167
  170
  174
  178
  182
  186
  190
  194
  198
  203
  207
  212
  216
  221
  226
  231
  236
  241
  247
  252
  257
  263
  269
Total operating expenses, $m
  774
  896
  1,031
  1,180
  1,339
  1,511
  1,693
  1,888
  2,092
  2,308
  2,533
  2,770
  3,017
  3,275
  3,544
  3,823
  4,114
  4,415
  4,729
  5,054
  5,393
  5,745
  6,110
  6,491
  6,886
  7,299
  7,727
  8,174
  8,641
  9,127
Operating income, $m
  -163
  -170
  -177
  -185
  -193
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -229
  -239
  -248
  -259
  -270
  -282
  -294
  -307
  -320
  -333
  -347
  -361
  -376
  -391
  -407
  -423
  -440
  -457
  -476
  -494
  -514
  -534
EBITDA, $m
  -131
  -132
  -132
  -133
  -133
  -133
  -133
  -133
  -133
  -132
  -132
  -131
  -130
  -130
  -129
  -127
  -126
  -125
  -123
  -122
  -120
  -118
  -116
  -114
  -111
  -109
  -106
  -103
  -99
  -96
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  5
  8
  14
  21
  28
  36
  45
  54
  64
  75
  86
  97
  109
  122
  135
  148
  163
  177
  193
  209
  225
  242
  260
  279
  298
  318
  339
  361
  384
  408
Earnings before tax, $m
  -168
  -178
  -192
  -206
  -221
  -238
  -256
  -274
  -294
  -314
  -334
  -356
  -380
  -404
  -429
  -455
  -482
  -510
  -539
  -570
  -601
  -633
  -667
  -702
  -738
  -776
  -815
  -855
  -898
  -942
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -168
  -178
  -192
  -206
  -221
  -238
  -256
  -274
  -294
  -314
  -334
  -356
  -380
  -404
  -429
  -455
  -482
  -510
  -539
  -570
  -601
  -633
  -667
  -702
  -738
  -776
  -815
  -855
  -898
  -942

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  668
  795
  935
  1,088
  1,254
  1,432
  1,622
  1,824
  2,038
  2,263
  2,500
  2,747
  3,005
  3,275
  3,555
  3,847
  4,151
  4,466
  4,794
  5,135
  5,489
  5,857
  6,240
  6,638
  7,053
  7,485
  7,934
  8,403
  8,892
  9,402
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  668
  795
  935
  1,088
  1,254
  1,432
  1,622
  1,824
  2,038
  2,263
  2,500
  2,747
  3,005
  3,275
  3,555
  3,847
  4,151
  4,466
  4,794
  5,135
  5,489
  5,857
  6,240
  6,638
  7,053
  7,485
  7,934
  8,403
  8,892
  9,402
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.913
  0.913
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
  0.914
Average production assets, $m
  156
  185
  218
  254
  292
  334
  378
  425
  475
  527
  583
  640
  700
  763
  829
  897
  967
  1,041
  1,117
  1,197
  1,279
  1,365
  1,454
  1,547
  1,644
  1,744
  1,849
  1,958
  2,072
  2,191
Working capital, $m
  -222
  -264
  -311
  -362
  -417
  -476
  -540
  -607
  -678
  -753
  -832
  -914
  -1,000
  -1,089
  -1,183
  -1,280
  -1,381
  -1,486
  -1,595
  -1,708
  -1,826
  -1,949
  -2,076
  -2,209
  -2,346
  -2,490
  -2,640
  -2,796
  -2,958
  -3,128
Total debt, $m
  148
  263
  389
  526
  676
  836
  1,007
  1,189
  1,382
  1,584
  1,797
  2,019
  2,252
  2,494
  2,747
  3,010
  3,283
  3,567
  3,862
  4,169
  4,487
  4,819
  5,163
  5,522
  5,895
  6,283
  6,688
  7,110
  7,550
  8,009
Total liabilities, $m
  601
  715
  841
  979
  1,128
  1,289
  1,460
  1,642
  1,834
  2,037
  2,250
  2,472
  2,705
  2,947
  3,200
  3,462
  3,736
  4,020
  4,315
  4,621
  4,940
  5,272
  5,616
  5,975
  6,348
  6,736
  7,141
  7,563
  8,002
  8,461
Total equity, $m
  67
  79
  93
  109
  125
  143
  162
  182
  204
  226
  250
  275
  301
  327
  356
  385
  415
  447
  479
  513
  549
  586
  624
  664
  705
  748
  793
  840
  889
  940
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  668
  794
  934
  1,088
  1,253
  1,432
  1,622
  1,824
  2,038
  2,263
  2,500
  2,747
  3,006
  3,274
  3,556
  3,847
  4,151
  4,467
  4,794
  5,134
  5,489
  5,858
  6,240
  6,639
  7,053
  7,484
  7,934
  8,403
  8,891
  9,401
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.220
  3.300
  4.160
  4.840
  5.390
  5.840
  6.210
  6.520
  6.780
  7.000
  7.190
  7.350
  7.490
  7.620
  7.730
  7.820
  7.910
  7.990
  8.060
  8.120
  8.180
  8.230
  8.270
  8.320
  8.360
  8.400
  8.430
  8.460
  8.490
  8.520
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -168
  -178
  -192
  -206
  -221
  -238
  -256
  -274
  -294
  -314
  -334
  -356
  -380
  -404
  -429
  -455
  -482
  -510
  -539
  -570
  -601
  -633
  -667
  -702
  -738
  -776
  -815
  -855
  -898
  -942
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  33
  39
  45
  52
  60
  68
  77
  87
  97
  107
  117
  128
  140
  153
  166
  179
  193
  208
  223
  239
  256
  273
  291
  309
  329
  349
  370
  392
  414
  438
Funds from operations, $m
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -154
  -161
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -251
  -263
  -276
  -289
  -302
  -316
  -330
  -345
  -360
  -376
  -393
  -409
  -427
  -445
  -464
  -483
  -503
Change in working capital, $m
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -163
  -170
Cash from operations, $m
  -97
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -227
  -238
  -249
  -260
  -272
  -283
  -295
  -308
  -321
  -334
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -26
  -31
  -37
  -44
  -51
  -58
  -67
  -76
  -85
  -95
  -105
  -117
  -128
  -140
  -153
  -166
  -179
  -193
  -208
  -223
  -239
  -256
  -273
  -291
  -309
  -329
  -349
  -370
  -392
  -414
New CAPEX, $m
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -119
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -53
  -61
  -70
  -80
  -90
  -100
  -111
  -123
  -135
  -147
  -160
  -175
  -188
  -203
  -218
  -234
  -250
  -267
  -284
  -302
  -322
  -342
  -362
  -384
  -406
  -430
  -454
  -479
  -506
  -533
Free cash flow, $m
  -150
  -158
  -169
  -182
  -196
  -210
  -226
  -243
  -261
  -280
  -299
  -320
  -342
  -364
  -388
  -412
  -438
  -464
  -491
  -520
  -549
  -580
  -611
  -644
  -678
  -713
  -749
  -787
  -826
  -867
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  62
  114
  126
  138
  149
  160
  171
  182
  192
  203
  213
  223
  233
  242
  253
  263
  273
  284
  295
  307
  319
  331
  345
  358
  373
  388
  405
  422
  440
  459
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  220
  191
  206
  221
  238
  256
  275
  294
  315
  337
  357
  381
  405
  431
  457
  484
  513
  542
  572
  604
  636
  670
  705
  742
  780
  819
  860
  902
  947
  993
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  282
  305
  332
  359
  387
  416
  446
  476
  507
  540
  570
  604
  638
  673
  710
  747
  786
  826
  867
  911
  955
  1,001
  1,050
  1,100
  1,153
  1,207
  1,265
  1,324
  1,387
  1,452
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  132
  147
  162
  177
  192
  206
  220
  233
  247
  260
  271
  284
  296
  309
  322
  335
  348
  362
  376
  391
  406
  422
  439
  457
  475
  495
  515
  537
  560
  584
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -220
  -191
  -206
  -221
  -238
  -256
  -275
  -294
  -315
  -337
  -357
  -381
  -405
  -431
  -457
  -484
  -513
  -542
  -572
  -604
  -636
  -670
  -705
  -742
  -780
  -819
  -860
  -902
  -947
  -993
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -88
  -44
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -50
  -55
  -61
  -68
  -77
  -87
  -97
  -109
  -122
  -135
  -150
  -165
  -180
  -196
  -213
  -230
  -248
  -266
  -285
  -304
  -324
  -344
  -365
  -386
  -408
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -84
  -40
  -38
  -36
  -36
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -42
  -41
  -40
  -38
  -36
  -33
  -30
  -27
  -24
  -21
  -17
  -15
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  40.5
  31.5
  25.0
  20.2
  16.6
  13.8
  11.6
  9.8
  8.4
  7.2
  6.2
  5.4
  4.7
  4.1
  3.6
  3.2
  2.8
  2.5
  2.2
  1.9
  1.7
  1.5
  1.4
  1.2
  1.1
  1.0
  0.9
  0.8
  0.7
  0.6

Box, Inc. provides an enterprise content management platform that enables organizations of all sizes to manage enterprise content while allowing access and sharing of this content from anywhere, on any device. With the Company's Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) cloud-based platform, users can collaborate on content both internally and with external parties, automate content-driven business processes, develop custom applications, and implement data protection, security and compliance features to comply with internal policies and industry regulations. Its platform enables people to view, share and collaborate on content, across various file formats and media types. The software integrates with enterprise business applications, and is compatible with various application environments, operating systems and devices, ensuring that workers have access to their business content. It offers individuals a free basic version of the Box platform that allows them to experience its solution.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Box, Inc. (BOX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -17.1
Price to Sales 6.5
Price to Book 34.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -2599.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -162.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 31.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -79.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 13
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 81.3%
Total Debt to Equity 100%
Interest Coverage -150
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -30.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -39.1%
Return On Total Capital -89.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -84.5%
Return On Equity -142.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -115%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 71.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 73.7%
EBITDA Margin -27.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -48.4%
Operating Margin -37.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -60.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -37.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -60.9%
Net Profit Margin -38.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -61%
Effective Tax Rate -0.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

BOX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BOX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $506 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Box, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Box, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BOX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BOX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Box, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Box, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BOX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 103.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $140 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BOX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Box, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Box, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BOX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BOX are equal to 25.5%.

Life of production assets of 3.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Box, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BOX is equal to -36.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $14.968 million for Box, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 144.439 million for Box, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Box, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.9 billion.

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