Intrinsic value of Bridgepoint Education - BPI

Previous Close

$9.01

  Intrinsic Value

$3.69

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-59%

Previous close

$9.01

 
Intrinsic value

$3.69

 
Up/down potential

-59%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BPI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -6.23
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  527
  538
  550
  564
  580
  597
  617
  638
  661
  685
  711
  739
  769
  801
  835
  871
  910
  950
  993
  1,038
  1,086
  1,136
  1,189
  1,245
  1,304
  1,366
  1,431
  1,500
  1,572
  1,649
  1,729
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  568
  581
  596
  613
  631
  652
  674
  698
  724
  752
  781
  813
  847
  882
  921
  961
  1,004
  1,049
  1,096
  1,147
  1,200
  1,256
  1,315
  1,377
  1,443
  1,512
  1,585
  1,661
  1,742
  1,826
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
Total operating expenses, $m
  567
  578
  592
  607
  624
  642
  664
  686
  710
  736
  765
  794
  826
  861
  896
  935
  976
  1,019
  1,065
  1,112
  1,163
  1,217
  1,273
  1,333
  1,395
  1,462
  1,531
  1,604
  1,681
  1,762
  1,847
Operating income, $m
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -119
EBITDA, $m
  -27
  -34
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
Earnings before tax, $m
  -38
  -41
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
Tax expense, $m
  -8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -30
  -41
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  357
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  463
  108
  111
  113
  117
  120
  124
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  275
  288
  302
  316
  332
  348
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  106
  108
  111
  113
  117
  120
  124
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  275
  288
  302
  316
  332
  348
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  4.972
  4.981
  4.955
  4.991
  4.957
  4.975
  4.976
  4.984
  4.970
  4.964
  4.972
  4.960
  4.961
  4.975
  4.970
  4.977
  4.973
  4.974
  4.965
  4.967
  4.982
  4.982
  4.975
  4.980
  4.977
  4.967
  4.969
  4.967
  4.975
  4.967
  4.968
Average production assets, $m
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  67
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
Working capital, $m
  279
  -80
  -81
  -83
  -86
  -88
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -256
Total debt, $m
  0
  -85
  -82
  -80
  -77
  -74
  -70
  -67
  -62
  -58
  -53
  -48
  -43
  -37
  -31
  -24
  -17
  -10
  -2
  6
  15
  24
  33
  43
  54
  65
  77
  90
  103
  116
  131
Total liabilities, $m
  183
  97
  100
  102
  105
  108
  112
  115
  120
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  272
  285
  298
  313
Total equity, $m
  281
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  464
  108
  111
  113
  117
  120
  124
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  154
  161
  168
  176
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  239
  250
  262
  274
  288
  302
  317
  331
  348
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -7.830
  -7.460
  -7.040
  -6.600
  -6.150
  -5.670
  -5.190
  -4.700
  -4.210
  -3.720
  -3.240
  -2.760
  -2.290
  -1.830
  -1.380
  -0.950
  -0.530
  -0.120
  0.280
  0.660
  1.030
  1.390
  1.730
  2.060
  2.380
  2.680
  2.970
  3.250
  3.510
  3.770
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.717
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -30
  -41
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
Funds from operations, $m
  -25
  -34
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
Change in working capital, $m
  -36
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
Cash from operations, $m
  11
  -32
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from investing activities, $m
  15
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -25
  -26
Free cash flow, $m
  26
  -40
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -85
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  128
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  43
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  88
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  133
  138
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  26
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  23
  -128
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -124
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  357
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  233
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  223
  -32
  -31
  -30
  -29
  -28
  -27
  -26
  -24
  -23
  -21
  -20
  -19
  -17
  -15
  -14
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  10.2
  2.1
  0.4
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Bridgepoint Education, Inc. (Bridgepoint) is a provider of postsecondary education services. The Company's academic institutions include Ashford University and University of the Rockies. Bridgepoint's institutions conduct ongoing faculty and student assessment processes, and provide a range of student services. It offers Constellation, its learning platform, Waypoint Outcomes, its assessment software, and its mobile application technology. As of December 31, 2016, its institutions offered over 1,200 courses and over 80 degree programs. Ashford University offers associate's, bachelor's and master's degree programs online. Ashford University comprises four colleges: the Forbes School of Business and Technology, the College of Education, the College of Health, Human Services and Science, and the College of Liberal Arts. University of the Rockies is a graduate institution that offers master's and doctoral degree programs in the social and behavioral sciences.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Bridgepoint Education (BPI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -14
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 38.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 46.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -33.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -6.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.9%
Return On Total Capital -10.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.4%
Return On Equity -10.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.4%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 49.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.8%
EBITDA Margin -4.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Operating Margin -7.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -7.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.9%
Net Profit Margin -5.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.5%
Effective Tax Rate 21.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

BPI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BPI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $527 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Bridgepoint Education. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Bridgepoint Education. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BPI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BPI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Bridgepoint Education, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Bridgepoint Education.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BPI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 105.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $10 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BPI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Bridgepoint Education.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Bridgepoint Education. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BPI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BPI are equal to 6.5%.

Life of production assets of 2.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Bridgepoint Education operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BPI is equal to -14.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $281 million for Bridgepoint Education - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.088 million for Bridgepoint Education is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Bridgepoint Education at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Is It The Right Time To Buy Bridgepoint Education Inc (BPI)?   [Nov-09-17 06:15PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Bridgepoint posts 3Q profit   [Oct-25-17 06:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ Bridgepoint Education Sponsors 2017 Denver Startup Week   [Sep-26-17 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Why Bridgepoint Education Stock Plunged Today   [Aug-15-17 01:48PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Bridgepoint posts 2Q profit   [Jul-26-17 11:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for June 2nd   [Jun-02-17 10:41AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for May 22nd   [May-22-17 09:23AM  Zacks]
▶ Bridgepoint posts 1Q profit   [07:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for April 17th   [Apr-17-17 10:38AM  Zacks]
▶ Bridgepoint reports 4Q loss   [Mar-07-17 06:10PM  Associated Press]
▶ How Bridgepoint Education Inc (BPI) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-08-16 09:47PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ For-Profit Colleges Look to Donald Trump for a Pass   [Dec-03-16 12:01AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] For-Profit Colleges Look to Donald Trump for a Pass   [Dec-02-16 09:00AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ For-Profit Colleges Look to Donald Trump for a Pass   [07:00AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Financial statements of BPI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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