Intrinsic value of Buckeye Partners L.P. - BPL

Previous Close

$41.43

  Intrinsic Value

$27.82

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-33%

Previous close

$41.43

 
Intrinsic value

$27.82

 
Up/down potential

-33%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of BPL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.60
  12.74
  11.97
  11.27
  10.64
  10.08
  9.57
  9.11
  8.70
  8.33
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
Revenue, $m
  4,667
  5,261
  5,891
  6,555
  7,252
  7,983
  8,747
  9,544
  10,375
  11,239
  12,138
  13,073
  14,044
  15,053
  16,102
  17,192
  18,326
  19,505
  20,732
  22,009
  23,340
  24,726
  26,172
  27,680
  29,254
  30,897
  32,614
  34,408
  36,283
  38,244
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,788
  4,261
  4,762
  5,290
  5,845
  6,426
  7,034
  7,668
  8,329
  9,016
  9,655
  10,398
  11,171
  11,973
  12,807
  13,675
  14,576
  15,514
  16,490
  17,506
  18,565
  19,667
  20,817
  22,017
  23,269
  24,576
  25,941
  27,368
  28,860
  30,419
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,788
  4,261
  4,762
  5,290
  5,845
  6,426
  7,034
  7,668
  8,329
  9,016
  9,655
  10,398
  11,171
  11,973
  12,807
  13,675
  14,576
  15,514
  16,490
  17,506
  18,565
  19,667
  20,817
  22,017
  23,269
  24,576
  25,941
  27,368
  28,860
  30,419
Operating income, $m
  878
  1,000
  1,129
  1,265
  1,407
  1,557
  1,713
  1,876
  2,046
  2,223
  2,483
  2,675
  2,873
  3,080
  3,294
  3,517
  3,749
  3,991
  4,242
  4,503
  4,775
  5,059
  5,355
  5,663
  5,985
  6,322
  6,673
  7,040
  7,423
  7,825
EBITDA, $m
  1,240
  1,398
  1,565
  1,742
  1,927
  2,121
  2,324
  2,536
  2,757
  2,987
  3,225
  3,474
  3,732
  4,000
  4,279
  4,568
  4,870
  5,183
  5,509
  5,848
  6,202
  6,570
  6,955
  7,355
  7,774
  8,210
  8,666
  9,143
  9,641
  10,162
Interest expense (income), $m
  175
  255
  315
  379
  447
  519
  595
  674
  756
  842
  932
  1,026
  1,123
  1,224
  1,329
  1,438
  1,551
  1,669
  1,792
  1,919
  2,052
  2,190
  2,334
  2,484
  2,640
  2,803
  2,973
  3,151
  3,337
  3,531
  3,733
Earnings before tax, $m
  624
  685
  750
  817
  888
  962
  1,040
  1,120
  1,204
  1,291
  1,458
  1,552
  1,649
  1,751
  1,856
  1,966
  2,080
  2,199
  2,322
  2,451
  2,585
  2,725
  2,871
  3,023
  3,182
  3,348
  3,522
  3,703
  3,893
  4,091
Tax expense, $m
  168
  185
  202
  221
  240
  260
  281
  302
  325
  349
  394
  419
  445
  473
  501
  531
  562
  594
  627
  662
  698
  736
  775
  816
  859
  904
  951
  1,000
  1,051
  1,105
Net income, $m
  455
  500
  547
  597
  648
  703
  759
  818
  879
  942
  1,064
  1,133
  1,204
  1,278
  1,355
  1,435
  1,519
  1,605
  1,695
  1,789
  1,887
  1,989
  2,096
  2,207
  2,323
  2,444
  2,571
  2,703
  2,842
  2,987

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  10,630
  11,985
  13,419
  14,931
  16,520
  18,185
  19,925
  21,741
  23,633
  25,602
  27,650
  29,778
  31,991
  34,289
  36,679
  39,162
  41,744
  44,430
  47,225
  50,135
  53,166
  56,324
  59,618
  63,053
  66,638
  70,381
  74,292
  78,378
  82,649
  87,117
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  10,630
  11,985
  13,419
  14,931
  16,520
  18,185
  19,925
  21,741
  23,633
  25,602
  27,650
  29,778
  31,991
  34,289
  36,679
  39,162
  41,744
  44,430
  47,225
  50,135
  53,166
  56,324
  59,618
  63,053
  66,638
  70,381
  74,292
  78,378
  82,649
  87,117
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
Average production assets, $m
  8,358
  9,423
  10,550
  11,739
  12,989
  14,298
  15,666
  17,094
  18,581
  20,129
  21,740
  23,413
  25,153
  26,960
  28,838
  30,791
  32,821
  34,933
  37,131
  39,418
  41,802
  44,285
  46,874
  49,575
  52,394
  55,337
  58,412
  61,624
  64,983
  68,495
Working capital, $m
  89
  100
  112
  125
  138
  152
  166
  181
  197
  214
  231
  248
  267
  286
  306
  327
  348
  371
  394
  418
  443
  470
  497
  526
  556
  587
  620
  654
  689
  727
Total debt, $m
  5,833
  7,023
  8,284
  9,613
  11,010
  12,473
  14,003
  15,599
  17,262
  18,993
  20,793
  22,664
  24,608
  26,629
  28,729
  30,912
  33,182
  35,543
  37,999
  40,557
  43,221
  45,998
  48,893
  51,912
  55,064
  58,354
  61,791
  65,383
  69,137
  73,064
Total liabilities, $m
  9,344
  10,534
  11,795
  13,124
  14,521
  15,984
  17,514
  19,110
  20,773
  22,504
  24,304
  26,175
  28,120
  30,140
  32,240
  34,423
  36,693
  39,054
  41,511
  44,069
  46,733
  49,509
  52,404
  55,424
  58,575
  61,865
  65,302
  68,894
  72,649
  76,575
Total equity, $m
  1,286
  1,450
  1,624
  1,807
  1,999
  2,200
  2,411
  2,631
  2,860
  3,098
  3,346
  3,603
  3,871
  4,149
  4,438
  4,739
  5,051
  5,376
  5,714
  6,066
  6,433
  6,815
  7,214
  7,629
  8,063
  8,516
  8,989
  9,484
  10,001
  10,541
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  10,630
  11,984
  13,419
  14,931
  16,520
  18,184
  19,925
  21,741
  23,633
  25,602
  27,650
  29,778
  31,991
  34,289
  36,678
  39,162
  41,744
  44,430
  47,225
  50,135
  53,166
  56,324
  59,618
  63,053
  66,638
  70,381
  74,291
  78,378
  82,650
  87,116
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.530
  4.840
  5.100
  5.320
  5.510
  5.670
  5.810
  5.930
  6.040
  6.130
  6.210
  6.290
  6.360
  6.420
  6.470
  6.520
  6.570
  6.610
  6.650
  6.690
  6.720
  6.750
  6.780
  6.800
  6.830
  6.850
  6.870
  6.890
  6.910
  6.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  455
  500
  547
  597
  648
  703
  759
  818
  879
  942
  1,064
  1,133
  1,204
  1,278
  1,355
  1,435
  1,519
  1,605
  1,695
  1,789
  1,887
  1,989
  2,096
  2,207
  2,323
  2,444
  2,571
  2,703
  2,842
  2,987
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  362
  398
  436
  477
  520
  564
  611
  660
  711
  763
  742
  799
  858
  920
  984
  1,051
  1,120
  1,192
  1,267
  1,345
  1,427
  1,511
  1,600
  1,692
  1,788
  1,889
  1,994
  2,103
  2,218
  2,338
Funds from operations, $m
  817
  898
  984
  1,074
  1,168
  1,267
  1,370
  1,478
  1,589
  1,706
  1,806
  1,932
  2,063
  2,198
  2,339
  2,486
  2,639
  2,797
  2,963
  3,135
  3,314
  3,501
  3,696
  3,899
  4,111
  4,333
  4,564
  4,806
  5,060
  5,324
Change in working capital, $m
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
Cash from operations, $m
  806
  887
  972
  1,061
  1,155
  1,253
  1,356
  1,462
  1,574
  1,689
  1,789
  1,914
  2,044
  2,179
  2,320
  2,465
  2,617
  2,775
  2,939
  3,110
  3,289
  3,474
  3,668
  3,870
  4,081
  4,302
  4,532
  4,772
  5,024
  5,287
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -251
  -285
  -322
  -360
  -401
  -443
  -488
  -535
  -583
  -634
  -687
  -742
  -799
  -858
  -920
  -984
  -1,051
  -1,120
  -1,192
  -1,267
  -1,345
  -1,427
  -1,511
  -1,600
  -1,692
  -1,788
  -1,889
  -1,994
  -2,103
  -2,218
New CAPEX, $m
  -1,000
  -1,065
  -1,128
  -1,189
  -1,249
  -1,309
  -1,368
  -1,428
  -1,488
  -1,548
  -1,610
  -1,674
  -1,739
  -1,807
  -1,878
  -1,953
  -2,030
  -2,112
  -2,198
  -2,288
  -2,383
  -2,483
  -2,589
  -2,701
  -2,819
  -2,943
  -3,074
  -3,213
  -3,359
  -3,512
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,251
  -1,350
  -1,450
  -1,549
  -1,650
  -1,752
  -1,856
  -1,963
  -2,071
  -2,182
  -2,297
  -2,416
  -2,538
  -2,665
  -2,798
  -2,937
  -3,081
  -3,232
  -3,390
  -3,555
  -3,728
  -3,910
  -4,100
  -4,301
  -4,511
  -4,731
  -4,963
  -5,207
  -5,462
  -5,730
Free cash flow, $m
  -445
  -463
  -477
  -488
  -495
  -499
  -501
  -500
  -497
  -493
  -508
  -501
  -494
  -487
  -479
  -471
  -464
  -457
  -451
  -445
  -440
  -436
  -433
  -431
  -430
  -430
  -431
  -434
  -438
  -443
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1,118
  1,190
  1,261
  1,329
  1,397
  1,463
  1,530
  1,596
  1,663
  1,731
  1,800
  1,871
  1,945
  2,021
  2,100
  2,183
  2,270
  2,361
  2,457
  2,558
  2,664
  2,776
  2,895
  3,020
  3,151
  3,290
  3,437
  3,592
  3,755
  3,927
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,118
  1,190
  1,261
  1,329
  1,397
  1,463
  1,530
  1,596
  1,663
  1,731
  1,800
  1,871
  1,945
  2,021
  2,100
  2,183
  2,270
  2,361
  2,457
  2,558
  2,664
  2,776
  2,895
  3,020
  3,151
  3,290
  3,437
  3,592
  3,755
  3,927
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  673
  727
  783
  841
  902
  964
  1,029
  1,096
  1,166
  1,238
  1,292
  1,370
  1,450
  1,534
  1,621
  1,712
  1,806
  1,904
  2,006
  2,113
  2,224
  2,341
  2,462
  2,589
  2,722
  2,861
  3,006
  3,158
  3,317
  3,484
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -156
  -164
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -220
  -229
  -238
  -248
  -258
  -268
  -278
  -289
  -300
  -312
  -325
  -338
  -352
  -367
  -382
  -398
  -416
  -434
  -453
  -473
  -494
  -517
  -541
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  517
  563
  610
  658
  709
  763
  818
  876
  937
  1,000
  1,044
  1,112
  1,183
  1,256
  1,332
  1,411
  1,493
  1,579
  1,668
  1,761
  1,858
  1,958
  2,064
  2,173
  2,288
  2,408
  2,533
  2,663
  2,800
  2,943
Discount rate, %
  11.00
  11.55
  12.13
  12.73
  13.37
  14.04
  14.74
  15.48
  16.25
  17.06
  17.92
  18.81
  19.75
  20.74
  21.78
  22.87
  24.01
  25.21
  26.47
  27.80
  29.19
  30.65
  32.18
  33.79
  35.48
  37.25
  39.11
  41.07
  43.12
  45.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  466
  453
  432
  408
  379
  347
  313
  277
  242
  207
  170
  141
  114
  90
  69
  52
  38
  28
  19
  13
  9
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Buckeye Partners, L.P. (Buckeye) owns and operates a network of integrated assets providing midstream logistic solutions, primarily consisting of the transportation, storage, processing and marketing of liquid petroleum products. Its segments include Domestic Pipelines & Terminals, Global Marine Terminals and Merchant Services. As of December 31, 2016, the Domestic Pipelines & Terminals segment owned and operated approximately 6,000 miles of pipeline located primarily in the northeastern and upper Midwestern portions of the United States, and serviced approximately 110 delivery locations. The Global Marine Terminals segment provides marine accessible bulk storage and blending services, rail and truck rack loading/unloading, along with petroleum processing services in the East Coast and Gulf Coast regions of the United States and in the Caribbean. The Merchant Services segment is a wholesale distributor of petroleum products in the continental United States and in the Caribbean.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Buckeye Partners L.P. (BPL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.8
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 25
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -18.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 95.6%
Total Debt to Equity 95.6%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Total Capital 6.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Equity 13.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.4%
EBITDA Margin 30.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
Operating Margin 22.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Net Profit Margin 16.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Payout Ratio 119.8%

BPL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BPL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4108 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Buckeye Partners L.P.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Buckeye Partners L.P.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BPL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11%, whose default value for BPL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Buckeye Partners L.P., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Buckeye Partners L.P..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BPL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BPL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Buckeye Partners L.P..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Buckeye Partners L.P.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BPL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BPL are equal to 179.1%.

Life of production assets of 29.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Buckeye Partners L.P. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BPL is equal to 1.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1129.812 million for Buckeye Partners L.P. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 153.757 million for Buckeye Partners L.P. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Buckeye Partners L.P. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.4 billion.

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