Intrinsic value of Brady Cl A - BRC

Previous Close

$38.85

  Intrinsic Value

$31.33

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-19%

Previous close

$38.85

 
Intrinsic value

$31.33

 
Up/down potential

-19%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BRC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.71
  3.60
  3.74
  3.87
  3.98
  4.08
  4.17
  4.26
  4.33
  4.40
  4.46
  4.51
  4.56
  4.60
  4.64
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
Revenue, $m
  1,113
  1,153
  1,196
  1,242
  1,292
  1,345
  1,401
  1,460
  1,524
  1,591
  1,661
  1,736
  1,816
  1,899
  1,987
  2,080
  2,178
  2,282
  2,390
  2,505
  2,626
  2,752
  2,886
  3,026
  3,174
  3,329
  3,492
  3,663
  3,843
  4,033
  4,232
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,030
  1,067
  1,107
  1,149
  1,194
  1,242
  1,293
  1,347
  1,405
  1,465
  1,486
  1,554
  1,625
  1,701
  1,780
  1,864
  1,952
  2,045
  2,143
  2,247
  2,355
  2,469
  2,589
  2,715
  2,848
  2,988
  3,134
  3,289
  3,451
  3,621
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  982
  1,030
  1,067
  1,107
  1,149
  1,194
  1,242
  1,293
  1,347
  1,405
  1,465
  1,486
  1,554
  1,625
  1,701
  1,780
  1,864
  1,952
  2,045
  2,143
  2,247
  2,355
  2,469
  2,589
  2,715
  2,848
  2,988
  3,134
  3,289
  3,451
  3,621
Operating income, $m
  131
  123
  129
  136
  143
  150
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  251
  262
  274
  287
  300
  314
  329
  345
  362
  379
  397
  417
  437
  458
  481
  504
  529
  555
  582
  611
EBITDA, $m
  158
  174
  180
  187
  195
  203
  211
  220
  230
  240
  251
  262
  274
  286
  300
  314
  328
  344
  360
  378
  396
  415
  435
  456
  479
  502
  527
  552
  580
  608
  638
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
Earnings before tax, $m
  127
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  233
  243
  253
  264
  275
  287
  299
  313
  327
  341
  357
  373
  390
  408
  426
  446
  467
  489
  512
  536
Tax expense, $m
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
Net income, $m
  96
  87
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  132
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  209
  219
  228
  238
  249
  260
  272
  284
  298
  311
  326
  341
  357
  374
  391

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  134
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,050
  949
  985
  1,023
  1,063
  1,107
  1,153
  1,202
  1,254
  1,309
  1,367
  1,429
  1,494
  1,563
  1,636
  1,712
  1,793
  1,878
  1,967
  2,062
  2,161
  2,265
  2,375
  2,491
  2,612
  2,740
  2,874
  3,015
  3,163
  3,319
  3,483
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  916
  949
  985
  1,023
  1,063
  1,107
  1,153
  1,202
  1,254
  1,309
  1,367
  1,429
  1,494
  1,563
  1,636
  1,712
  1,793
  1,878
  1,967
  2,062
  2,161
  2,265
  2,375
  2,491
  2,612
  2,740
  2,874
  3,015
  3,163
  3,319
  3,483
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.215
  1.215
  1.214
  1.214
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.216
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
Average production assets, $m
  157
  163
  169
  175
  182
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  234
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  307
  322
  337
  353
  370
  388
  407
  427
  447
  469
  492
  517
  542
  569
  597
Working capital, $m
  221
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  169
  176
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
  270
  283
  297
  311
  327
  343
Total debt, $m
  54
  64
  77
  92
  107
  123
  141
  160
  179
  200
  222
  246
  270
  296
  324
  353
  384
  416
  450
  485
  523
  563
  604
  648
  694
  742
  793
  847
  903
  962
  1,024
Total liabilities, $m
  350
  360
  373
  388
  403
  419
  437
  456
  475
  496
  518
  542
  566
  592
  620
  649
  680
  712
  746
  781
  819
  859
  900
  944
  990
  1,038
  1,089
  1,143
  1,199
  1,258
  1,320
Total equity, $m
  700
  589
  611
  635
  660
  687
  716
  746
  779
  813
  849
  888
  928
  971
  1,016
  1,063
  1,113
  1,166
  1,222
  1,280
  1,342
  1,407
  1,475
  1,547
  1,622
  1,701
  1,785
  1,872
  1,964
  2,061
  2,163
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,050
  949
  984
  1,023
  1,063
  1,106
  1,153
  1,202
  1,254
  1,309
  1,367
  1,430
  1,494
  1,563
  1,636
  1,712
  1,793
  1,878
  1,968
  2,061
  2,161
  2,266
  2,375
  2,491
  2,612
  2,739
  2,874
  3,015
  3,163
  3,319
  3,483
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.077
  0.110
  0.130
  0.140
  0.160
  0.180
  0.200
  0.210
  0.230
  0.250
  0.260
  0.280
  0.290
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  96
  87
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  132
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  209
  219
  228
  238
  249
  260
  272
  284
  298
  311
  326
  341
  357
  374
  391
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  27
  51
  52
  52
  52
  52
  53
  53
  54
  54
  54
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
Funds from operations, $m
  164
  138
  142
  146
  151
  156
  161
  167
  173
  179
  186
  182
  189
  197
  205
  214
  223
  233
  244
  254
  266
  278
  291
  304
  318
  333
  348
  364
  382
  400
  418
Change in working capital, $m
  20
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
Cash from operations, $m
  144
  135
  138
  143
  147
  152
  157
  162
  168
  174
  180
  175
  183
  190
  198
  207
  216
  225
  235
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  306
  320
  335
  351
  367
  384
  402
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -15
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
Free cash flow, $m
  129
  122
  125
  128
  132
  136
  140
  145
  150
  155
  160
  154
  160
  167
  174
  181
  188
  196
  205
  214
  223
  233
  243
  254
  266
  278
  291
  304
  318
  333
  348
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -113
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  20
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -94
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  35
  135
  138
  143
  148
  153
  158
  163
  169
  176
  182
  178
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  239
  249
  261
  272
  285
  298
  312
  326
  341
  357
  374
  392
  410
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -96
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  131
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  245
  116
  119
  122
  126
  129
  133
  137
  141
  146
  139
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  208
  217
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  282
  295
  309
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  235
  107
  104
  101
  97
  94
  90
  86
  81
  77
  66
  62
  57
  52
  48
  43
  38
  34
  29
  25
  21
  18
  15
  12
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Brady Corporation is a manufacturer and supplier of identification solutions and workplace safety products that identify and protect premises, products and people. The Company has two segments: Identification Solutions (IDS) and Workplace Safety (WPS). The IDS segment includes identification and healthcare products, and the WPS segment includes workplace safety and compliance products. The IDS segment offers products that are manufactured under various brands, including the Brady brand, and are primarily sold through distribution to a range of maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) and original equipment manufacturing (OEM) customers, and through other channels. The WPS segment offers a range of product categories, such as safety and compliance signs, tags, and labels; informational and architectural signage; industrial warehouse and office equipment, and labor law compliance posters. Its brands include Electromark, Identicard, PromoVision, Scafftag, Seton and Emedco.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Brady Cl A (BRC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.8
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -11.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -19%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 45
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 7.3%
Total Debt to Equity 7.7%
Interest Coverage 22
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Return On Total Capital 13.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Return On Equity 14.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.2%
EBITDA Margin 14.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Operating Margin 11.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Net Profit Margin 8.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Effective Tax Rate 24.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.7%
Payout Ratio 43.8%

BRC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BRC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1113 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Brady Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Brady Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BRC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BRC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Brady Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Brady Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BRC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BRC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.8% for Brady Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Brady Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BRC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BRC are equal to 14.1%.

Life of production assets of 21.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Brady Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BRC is equal to 8.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $700 million for Brady Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 51.979 million for Brady Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Brady Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Brady Corp. : December 18, 2017   [Dec-18-17 02:56PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Best High Growth AIM Stocks This Week   [Dec-11-17 06:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Brady Corp. : December 8, 2017   [Dec-08-17 12:26PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Brady Corp. : November 21, 2017   [Nov-21-17 11:23AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Brady beats Street 1Q forecasts   [Nov-16-17 07:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ Brady Corp. Value Analysis (NYSE:BRC) : November 10, 2017   [Nov-10-17 01:05PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Top AIM High Growth Stock   [06:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Brady Corporation Announces Earnings Conference Call   [Oct-18-17 10:26AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Brady Corp. : October 6, 2017   [Oct-06-17 10:40AM  Capital Cube]
▶ These 3 Stocks Just Raised Their Dividends   [Sep-14-17 10:31AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Brady beats Street 4Q forecasts   [Sep-07-17 10:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ Brady Corp. Value Analysis (NYSE:BRC) : September 6, 2017   [Sep-05-17 10:56PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Brady Corporation Announces Earnings Conference Call   [Aug-09-17 10:57AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Brady Corp. : July 13, 2017   [Jul-13-17 03:41PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Brady meets 3Q profit forecasts   [May-25-17 07:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ Brady Corporation declares regular dividend to shareholders   [May-24-17 05:10PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Brady Corporation Announces Earnings Conference Call   [Apr-28-17 12:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Brady Corp. Value Analysis (NYSE:BRC) : April 13, 2017   [Apr-13-17 12:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for April 10th   [Apr-10-17 09:07AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for March 30th   [Mar-30-17 10:51AM  Zacks]
Financial statements of BRC
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