Intrinsic value of Brown&Brown - BRO

Previous Close

$28.89

  Intrinsic Value

$29.74

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+3%

Previous close

$28.89

 
Intrinsic value

$29.74

 
Up/down potential

+3%

 
Rating

hold

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as BRO.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BRO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 8.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,919
  1,963
  2,014
  2,070
  2,133
  2,202
  2,277
  2,358
  2,445
  2,539
  2,640
  2,747
  2,861
  2,982
  3,111
  3,247
  3,391
  3,544
  3,705
  3,875
  4,055
  4,245
  4,444
  4,655
  4,876
  5,110
  5,355
  5,614
  5,885
  6,171
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,400
  1,424
  1,452
  1,484
  1,519
  1,557
  1,598
  1,643
  1,692
  1,744
  1,464
  1,523
  1,587
  1,654
  1,725
  1,801
  1,881
  1,965
  2,055
  2,149
  2,249
  2,354
  2,465
  2,581
  2,704
  2,834
  2,970
  3,113
  3,264
  3,422
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,400
  1,424
  1,452
  1,484
  1,519
  1,557
  1,598
  1,643
  1,692
  1,744
  1,464
  1,523
  1,587
  1,654
  1,725
  1,801
  1,881
  1,965
  2,055
  2,149
  2,249
  2,354
  2,465
  2,581
  2,704
  2,834
  2,970
  3,113
  3,264
  3,422
Operating income, $m
  519
  539
  561
  586
  614
  645
  678
  715
  754
  795
  1,176
  1,224
  1,274
  1,328
  1,386
  1,446
  1,511
  1,579
  1,650
  1,726
  1,806
  1,891
  1,980
  2,073
  2,172
  2,276
  2,385
  2,500
  2,622
  2,749
EBITDA, $m
  915
  936
  960
  987
  1,017
  1,049
  1,085
  1,124
  1,166
  1,210
  1,258
  1,309
  1,364
  1,421
  1,483
  1,548
  1,616
  1,689
  1,766
  1,847
  1,933
  2,023
  2,118
  2,219
  2,324
  2,435
  2,552
  2,676
  2,805
  2,942
Interest expense (income), $m
  38
  53
  56
  60
  65
  70
  76
  82
  89
  96
  104
  113
  122
  132
  142
  153
  165
  177
  190
  204
  219
  234
  251
  268
  286
  305
  326
  347
  369
  393
  417
Earnings before tax, $m
  466
  482
  501
  521
  544
  569
  596
  626
  657
  691
  1,063
  1,102
  1,143
  1,186
  1,233
  1,282
  1,333
  1,388
  1,446
  1,507
  1,572
  1,640
  1,712
  1,787
  1,867
  1,950
  2,039
  2,131
  2,229
  2,332
Tax expense, $m
  126
  130
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  187
  287
  297
  309
  320
  333
  346
  360
  375
  390
  407
  424
  443
  462
  483
  504
  527
  550
  575
  602
  630
Net income, $m
  340
  352
  366
  381
  397
  416
  435
  457
  480
  504
  776
  804
  834
  866
  900
  936
  973
  1,013
  1,056
  1,100
  1,147
  1,197
  1,249
  1,305
  1,363
  1,424
  1,488
  1,556
  1,627
  1,702

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,868
  6,003
  6,158
  6,331
  6,523
  6,733
  6,963
  7,211
  7,478
  7,765
  8,072
  8,400
  8,749
  9,120
  9,513
  9,930
  10,371
  10,838
  11,331
  11,852
  12,401
  12,980
  13,591
  14,234
  14,912
  15,626
  16,376
  17,167
  17,998
  18,873
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,868
  6,003
  6,158
  6,331
  6,523
  6,733
  6,963
  7,211
  7,478
  7,765
  8,072
  8,400
  8,749
  9,120
  9,513
  9,930
  10,371
  10,838
  11,331
  11,852
  12,401
  12,980
  13,591
  14,234
  14,912
  15,626
  16,376
  17,167
  17,998
  18,873
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
Average production assets, $m
  1,796
  1,837
  1,885
  1,938
  1,996
  2,061
  2,131
  2,207
  2,289
  2,377
  2,471
  2,571
  2,678
  2,791
  2,912
  3,039
  3,174
  3,317
  3,468
  3,627
  3,796
  3,973
  4,160
  4,357
  4,564
  4,783
  5,012
  5,254
  5,509
  5,776
Working capital, $m
  -484
  -495
  -507
  -522
  -538
  -555
  -574
  -594
  -616
  -640
  -665
  -692
  -721
  -751
  -784
  -818
  -855
  -893
  -934
  -977
  -1,022
  -1,070
  -1,120
  -1,173
  -1,229
  -1,288
  -1,349
  -1,415
  -1,483
  -1,555
Total debt, $m
  1,045
  1,119
  1,204
  1,300
  1,405
  1,521
  1,648
  1,785
  1,932
  2,090
  2,259
  2,440
  2,632
  2,836
  3,053
  3,283
  3,526
  3,783
  4,055
  4,342
  4,644
  4,963
  5,300
  5,654
  6,028
  6,421
  6,835
  7,270
  7,728
  8,210
Total liabilities, $m
  3,234
  3,308
  3,393
  3,488
  3,594
  3,710
  3,836
  3,973
  4,121
  4,279
  4,448
  4,628
  4,821
  5,025
  5,242
  5,471
  5,715
  5,972
  6,243
  6,530
  6,833
  7,152
  7,489
  7,843
  8,217
  8,610
  9,023
  9,459
  9,917
  10,399
Total equity, $m
  2,635
  2,696
  2,765
  2,843
  2,929
  3,023
  3,126
  3,238
  3,358
  3,487
  3,625
  3,772
  3,928
  4,095
  4,271
  4,459
  4,657
  4,866
  5,088
  5,321
  5,568
  5,828
  6,102
  6,391
  6,695
  7,016
  7,353
  7,708
  8,081
  8,474
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,869
  6,004
  6,158
  6,331
  6,523
  6,733
  6,962
  7,211
  7,479
  7,766
  8,073
  8,400
  8,749
  9,120
  9,513
  9,930
  10,372
  10,838
  11,331
  11,851
  12,401
  12,980
  13,591
  14,234
  14,912
  15,626
  16,376
  17,167
  17,998
  18,873
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.400
  0.420
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.500
  0.530
  0.550
  0.580
  0.600
  0.620
  0.650
  0.670
  0.690
  0.710
  0.740
  0.760
  0.780
  0.800
  0.820
  0.830
  0.850
  0.870
  0.880
  0.900
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.960
  0.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449
  0.449

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  340
  352
  366
  381
  397
  416
  435
  457
  480
  504
  776
  804
  834
  866
  900
  936
  973
  1,013
  1,056
  1,100
  1,147
  1,197
  1,249
  1,305
  1,363
  1,424
  1,488
  1,556
  1,627
  1,702
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  396
  397
  399
  400
  402
  404
  407
  409
  412
  415
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  132
  139
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  184
  193
Funds from operations, $m
  736
  749
  764
  781
  800
  820
  842
  866
  892
  919
  858
  890
  923
  959
  997
  1,037
  1,079
  1,124
  1,171
  1,221
  1,274
  1,330
  1,388
  1,450
  1,515
  1,583
  1,655
  1,731
  1,811
  1,895
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
Cash from operations, $m
  746
  760
  777
  795
  815
  837
  861
  886
  914
  943
  884
  917
  952
  990
  1,029
  1,071
  1,116
  1,162
  1,212
  1,264
  1,319
  1,377
  1,438
  1,503
  1,571
  1,642
  1,717
  1,796
  1,879
  1,967
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -59
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -132
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
New CAPEX, $m
  -35
  -41
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -128
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -218
  -230
  -242
  -254
  -268
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -94
  -101
  -108
  -116
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -147
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -193
  -202
  -213
  -225
  -236
  -249
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -304
  -319
  -336
  -352
  -370
  -389
  -409
  -429
  -452
Free cash flow, $m
  652
  659
  668
  679
  692
  706
  722
  739
  758
  779
  710
  734
  760
  787
  816
  847
  879
  914
  950
  989
  1,030
  1,073
  1,119
  1,167
  1,218
  1,272
  1,328
  1,387
  1,450
  1,515
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  69
  74
  85
  95
  106
  116
  126
  137
  147
  158
  169
  181
  192
  204
  217
  230
  243
  257
  272
  287
  303
  319
  336
  355
  373
  393
  414
  435
  458
  482
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  69
  74
  85
  95
  106
  116
  126
  137
  147
  158
  169
  181
  192
  204
  217
  230
  243
  257
  272
  287
  303
  319
  336
  355
  373
  393
  414
  435
  458
  482
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  721
  733
  753
  775
  798
  822
  848
  876
  906
  937
  880
  915
  952
  991
  1,033
  1,076
  1,122
  1,171
  1,222
  1,276
  1,333
  1,393
  1,456
  1,522
  1,591
  1,665
  1,742
  1,823
  1,908
  1,997
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -52
  -61
  -69
  -78
  -86
  -95
  -103
  -111
  -120
  -129
  -138
  -147
  -157
  -166
  -177
  -187
  -198
  -210
  -221
  -234
  -247
  -260
  -274
  -289
  -304
  -320
  -337
  -355
  -373
  -393
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  668
  673
  684
  697
  712
  728
  745
  765
  786
  808
  742
  768
  795
  825
  856
  889
  924
  961
  1,001
  1,042
  1,086
  1,133
  1,181
  1,233
  1,287
  1,344
  1,405
  1,468
  1,535
  1,605
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  641
  616
  595
  574
  552
  528
  504
  478
  451
  424
  352
  328
  302
  277
  251
  226
  201
  177
  154
  132
  112
  94
  77
  63
  50
  39
  30
  23
  17
  12
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Brown & Brown, Inc. is a diversified insurance agency, wholesale brokerage, insurance programs and service company. The Company markets and sells insurance products and services, in the property, casualty and employee benefits areas. It provides its customers with non-investment insurance contracts, as well as other customized risk management products and services. It operates through four segments: the Retail Segment, which provides a range of insurance products and services to commercial, public and quasi-public entities, and to professional and individual customers; the National Programs Segment, which acts as a managing general agent, provides professional liability and related package products; the Wholesale Brokerage Segment, which markets and sells excess and surplus commercial and personal lines insurance, and the Services Segment, which provides insurance-related services, including third-party claims administration and medical utilization management services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Brown&Brown (BRO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.7
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 43.1%
Total Debt to Equity 45.5%
Interest Coverage 12
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Return On Total Capital 7.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Return On Equity 11.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 32.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.7%
Operating Margin 26.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 24%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
Net Profit Margin 14.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Effective Tax Rate 39.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.4%
Payout Ratio 27.2%

BRO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BRO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1881.347 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Brown&Brown. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Brown&Brown. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BRO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BRO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Brown&Brown, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Brown&Brown.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BRO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 73.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BRO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Brown&Brown.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Brown&Brown. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BRO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BRO are equal to 93.6%.

Life of production assets of 31.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Brown&Brown operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BRO is equal to -25.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2582.699 million for Brown&Brown - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 279.274 million for Brown&Brown is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Brown&Brown at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $8.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Brown & Brown: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ Strong Buys on Netflix, Nvidia   [Sep-21-18 08:00PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Brown & Brown, Inc. to Host Investor Day   [Aug-06-18 06:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Brown & Brown: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-23-18 05:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ Brown & Brown, Inc. Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jul-12-18 05:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Buy These 5 Low Leverage Stocks on Chances of Rate Hike   [Jul-06-18 12:40PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Is Brown & Brown Inc (NYSE:BRO) Undervalued?   [10:06AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Central Florida insurance giant Brown & Brown strikes a deal   [Jun-06-18 04:15PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Brown & Brown: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-23-18 06:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ Brown & Brown, Inc. Completes 2-for-1 Stock Split   [Mar-28-18 05:00PM  GlobeNewswire]

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