Intrinsic value of Burlington Stores, Inc. - BURL

Previous Close

$200.68

  Intrinsic Value

$167.49

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-17%

Previous close

$200.68

 
Intrinsic value

$167.49

 
Up/down potential

-17%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of BURL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 13.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.60
  12.74
  11.97
  11.27
  10.64
  10.08
  9.57
  9.11
  8.70
  8.33
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
Revenue, $m
  6,941
  7,825
  8,762
  9,749
  10,787
  11,874
  13,010
  14,196
  15,431
  16,717
  18,054
  19,444
  20,888
  22,389
  23,949
  25,570
  27,257
  29,010
  30,835
  32,735
  34,714
  36,777
  38,927
  41,170
  43,511
  45,955
  48,508
  51,176
  53,965
  56,882
Variable operating expenses, $m
  5,618
  6,330
  7,085
  7,880
  8,715
  9,591
  10,506
  11,461
  12,456
  13,491
  14,539
  15,659
  16,822
  18,031
  19,287
  20,593
  21,951
  23,363
  24,833
  26,363
  27,957
  29,618
  31,349
  33,156
  35,041
  37,009
  39,065
  41,214
  43,460
  45,809
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  694
  709
  725
  741
  757
  774
  791
  808
  826
  844
  863
  882
  901
  921
  941
  962
  983
  1,005
  1,027
  1,049
  1,072
  1,096
  1,120
  1,145
  1,170
  1,196
  1,222
  1,249
  1,276
  1,304
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,312
  7,039
  7,810
  8,621
  9,472
  10,365
  11,297
  12,269
  13,282
  14,335
  15,402
  16,541
  17,723
  18,952
  20,228
  21,555
  22,934
  24,368
  25,860
  27,412
  29,029
  30,714
  32,469
  34,301
  36,211
  38,205
  40,287
  42,463
  44,736
  47,113
Operating income, $m
  629
  786
  952
  1,129
  1,314
  1,509
  1,713
  1,927
  2,149
  2,382
  2,652
  2,903
  3,165
  3,438
  3,721
  4,016
  4,323
  4,643
  4,976
  5,323
  5,685
  6,063
  6,458
  6,870
  7,300
  7,750
  8,221
  8,713
  9,229
  9,769
EBITDA, $m
  863
  1,047
  1,241
  1,447
  1,663
  1,890
  2,128
  2,377
  2,636
  2,907
  3,188
  3,481
  3,786
  4,103
  4,432
  4,775
  5,133
  5,504
  5,892
  6,296
  6,716
  7,156
  7,614
  8,093
  8,593
  9,115
  9,662
  10,234
  10,832
  11,458
Interest expense (income), $m
  52
  61
  69
  89
  110
  132
  155
  179
  205
  231
  259
  288
  318
  349
  381
  415
  450
  486
  524
  563
  604
  646
  690
  737
  785
  835
  887
  942
  999
  1,059
  1,121
Earnings before tax, $m
  568
  717
  864
  1,019
  1,182
  1,354
  1,534
  1,722
  1,918
  2,123
  2,364
  2,586
  2,816
  3,056
  3,306
  3,566
  3,837
  4,119
  4,413
  4,720
  5,039
  5,373
  5,721
  6,085
  6,465
  6,863
  7,279
  7,714
  8,170
  8,647
Tax expense, $m
  153
  193
  233
  275
  319
  366
  414
  465
  518
  573
  638
  698
  760
  825
  893
  963
  1,036
  1,112
  1,192
  1,274
  1,361
  1,451
  1,545
  1,643
  1,746
  1,853
  1,965
  2,083
  2,206
  2,335
Net income, $m
  415
  523
  630
  744
  863
  989
  1,120
  1,257
  1,400
  1,550
  1,726
  1,888
  2,056
  2,231
  2,414
  2,603
  2,801
  3,007
  3,222
  3,445
  3,679
  3,922
  4,176
  4,442
  4,720
  5,010
  5,314
  5,631
  5,964
  6,313

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,196
  3,603
  4,034
  4,488
  4,966
  5,467
  5,990
  6,536
  7,104
  7,696
  8,312
  8,952
  9,617
  10,308
  11,026
  11,773
  12,549
  13,356
  14,197
  15,071
  15,983
  16,932
  17,922
  18,955
  20,033
  21,158
  22,333
  23,562
  24,846
  26,189
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,196
  3,603
  4,034
  4,488
  4,966
  5,467
  5,990
  6,536
  7,104
  7,696
  8,312
  8,952
  9,617
  10,308
  11,026
  11,773
  12,549
  13,356
  14,197
  15,071
  15,983
  16,932
  17,922
  18,955
  20,033
  21,158
  22,333
  23,562
  24,846
  26,189
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
Average production assets, $m
  1,402
  1,581
  1,770
  1,969
  2,179
  2,398
  2,628
  2,868
  3,117
  3,377
  3,647
  3,928
  4,219
  4,523
  4,838
  5,165
  5,506
  5,860
  6,229
  6,613
  7,012
  7,429
  7,863
  8,316
  8,789
  9,283
  9,799
  10,338
  10,901
  11,490
Working capital, $m
  -187
  -211
  -237
  -263
  -291
  -321
  -351
  -383
  -417
  -451
  -487
  -525
  -564
  -605
  -647
  -690
  -736
  -783
  -833
  -884
  -937
  -993
  -1,051
  -1,112
  -1,175
  -1,241
  -1,310
  -1,382
  -1,457
  -1,536
Total debt, $m
  1,277
  1,643
  2,031
  2,441
  2,870
  3,321
  3,792
  4,283
  4,795
  5,328
  5,882
  6,458
  7,056
  7,678
  8,325
  8,996
  9,695
  10,422
  11,178
  11,965
  12,785
  13,640
  14,531
  15,460
  16,430
  17,443
  18,501
  19,607
  20,762
  21,971
Total liabilities, $m
  2,876
  3,243
  3,630
  4,040
  4,470
  4,920
  5,391
  5,882
  6,394
  6,927
  7,481
  8,057
  8,655
  9,277
  9,924
  10,596
  11,294
  12,021
  12,777
  13,564
  14,384
  15,239
  16,130
  17,059
  18,029
  19,042
  20,100
  21,206
  22,361
  23,570
Total equity, $m
  320
  360
  403
  449
  497
  547
  599
  654
  710
  770
  831
  895
  962
  1,031
  1,103
  1,177
  1,255
  1,336
  1,420
  1,507
  1,598
  1,693
  1,792
  1,895
  2,003
  2,116
  2,233
  2,356
  2,485
  2,619
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,196
  3,603
  4,033
  4,489
  4,967
  5,467
  5,990
  6,536
  7,104
  7,697
  8,312
  8,952
  9,617
  10,308
  11,027
  11,773
  12,549
  13,357
  14,197
  15,071
  15,982
  16,932
  17,922
  18,954
  20,032
  21,158
  22,333
  23,562
  24,846
  26,189
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.000
  4.560
  5.040
  5.440
  5.780
  6.070
  6.330
  6.550
  6.750
  6.920
  7.080
  7.210
  7.340
  7.450
  7.550
  7.640
  7.730
  7.800
  7.870
  7.940
  8.000
  8.060
  8.110
  8.160
  8.200
  8.240
  8.280
  8.320
  8.360
  8.390
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  415
  523
  630
  744
  863
  989
  1,120
  1,257
  1,400
  1,550
  1,726
  1,888
  2,056
  2,231
  2,414
  2,603
  2,801
  3,007
  3,222
  3,445
  3,679
  3,922
  4,176
  4,442
  4,720
  5,010
  5,314
  5,631
  5,964
  6,313
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  235
  261
  289
  318
  349
  381
  415
  450
  487
  525
  536
  578
  620
  665
  711
  760
  810
  862
  916
  972
  1,031
  1,092
  1,156
  1,223
  1,293
  1,365
  1,441
  1,520
  1,603
  1,690
Funds from operations, $m
  649
  784
  919
  1,062
  1,212
  1,370
  1,535
  1,707
  1,887
  2,075
  2,262
  2,465
  2,676
  2,896
  3,125
  3,363
  3,611
  3,869
  4,138
  4,418
  4,710
  5,015
  5,333
  5,665
  6,012
  6,375
  6,755
  7,152
  7,567
  8,002
Change in working capital, $m
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
Cash from operations, $m
  672
  808
  944
  1,089
  1,240
  1,399
  1,565
  1,739
  1,921
  2,109
  2,298
  2,503
  2,715
  2,937
  3,167
  3,407
  3,656
  3,916
  4,187
  4,469
  4,763
  5,070
  5,391
  5,726
  6,075
  6,441
  6,824
  7,224
  7,643
  8,081
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -182
  -206
  -232
  -260
  -290
  -320
  -353
  -386
  -422
  -458
  -497
  -536
  -578
  -620
  -665
  -711
  -760
  -810
  -862
  -916
  -972
  -1,031
  -1,092
  -1,156
  -1,223
  -1,293
  -1,365
  -1,441
  -1,520
  -1,603
New CAPEX, $m
  -167
  -179
  -189
  -199
  -210
  -220
  -230
  -239
  -250
  -260
  -270
  -281
  -292
  -303
  -315
  -328
  -341
  -354
  -369
  -384
  -400
  -417
  -434
  -453
  -473
  -494
  -516
  -539
  -563
  -589
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -349
  -385
  -421
  -459
  -500
  -540
  -583
  -625
  -672
  -718
  -767
  -817
  -870
  -923
  -980
  -1,039
  -1,101
  -1,164
  -1,231
  -1,300
  -1,372
  -1,448
  -1,526
  -1,609
  -1,696
  -1,787
  -1,881
  -1,980
  -2,083
  -2,192
Free cash flow, $m
  323
  423
  523
  629
  741
  859
  983
  1,113
  1,249
  1,391
  1,532
  1,686
  1,846
  2,013
  2,187
  2,368
  2,556
  2,752
  2,956
  3,169
  3,391
  3,622
  3,864
  4,116
  4,380
  4,655
  4,943
  5,244
  5,559
  5,889
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  150
  366
  388
  409
  430
  450
  471
  491
  512
  533
  554
  576
  599
  622
  646
  672
  699
  727
  756
  787
  820
  855
  891
  929
  970
  1,013
  1,058
  1,106
  1,156
  1,209
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  150
  366
  388
  409
  430
  450
  471
  491
  512
  533
  554
  576
  599
  622
  646
  672
  699
  727
  756
  787
  820
  855
  891
  929
  970
  1,013
  1,058
  1,106
  1,156
  1,209
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  473
  790
  911
  1,038
  1,171
  1,310
  1,454
  1,605
  1,761
  1,924
  2,086
  2,262
  2,445
  2,635
  2,833
  3,040
  3,255
  3,479
  3,713
  3,956
  4,211
  4,477
  4,755
  5,046
  5,350
  5,668
  6,001
  6,349
  6,715
  7,097
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -233
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  240
  749
  868
  992
  1,123
  1,259
  1,402
  1,550
  1,704
  1,865
  2,024
  2,198
  2,378
  2,566
  2,762
  2,965
  3,177
  3,398
  3,629
  3,869
  4,120
  4,382
  4,656
  4,942
  5,242
  5,555
  5,883
  6,226
  6,586
  6,963
Discount rate, %
  6.70
  7.04
  7.39
  7.76
  8.14
  8.55
  8.98
  9.43
  9.90
  10.39
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.63
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.12
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.82
  25.01
  26.26
  27.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  225
  654
  701
  736
  759
  770
  768
  754
  729
  694
  648
  598
  543
  485
  426
  368
  312
  260
  212
  169
  133
  102
  76
  55
  39
  27
  18
  12
  8
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Burlington Stores, Inc. is a retailer of branded apparel. As of January 28, 2017, the Company operated 592 retail stores, inclusive of an Internet store, in 45 states and Puerto Rico. Its product categories include coats, women, men, juniors, girls, boys, shoes, handbags and accessories, beauty and fragrance, home and toys. The product categories for coats include women's coats and jackets, men's coats and jackets, juniors coats and jackets, girls coats and jackets, boy's coats and jackets, baby girl coats and jackets, and baby boy coats and jackets. The product categories for women include active wear, bottoms, coats and jackets, dresses, tops, scrubs, suit and suit separates, sweaters, swimwear and cover-ups. It also includes accessories, beauty and fragrance, handbags, jewelry, shoes and watches. The product categories for men include accessories, active wear, casual button down shirts, dress shirts, men's coats jackets, fleece, graphic tees, hoodies and sweatshirts, and jeans.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 65.2
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book -281.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 23.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 34
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -6.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 41
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -2256%
Total Debt to Equity -2260%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Return On Total Capital 19%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Return On Equity -289.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -177.6%
Asset Turnover 2.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.5%
EBITDA Margin 10.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Operating Margin 6.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Net Profit Margin 3.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Effective Tax Rate 35.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

BURL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BURL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6110 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Burlington Stores, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Burlington Stores, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BURL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.7%, whose default value for BURL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Burlington Stores, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Burlington Stores, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BURL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $679 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BURL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Burlington Stores, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Burlington Stores, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BURL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BURL are equal to 20.2%.

Life of production assets of 6.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Burlington Stores, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BURL is equal to -2.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $86.774 million for Burlington Stores, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 67.410 million for Burlington Stores, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Burlington Stores, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $13.5 billion.

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