Intrinsic value of Boyd Gaming - BYD

Previous Close

$35.80

  Intrinsic Value

$28.15

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-21%

Previous close

$35.80

 
Intrinsic value

$28.15

 
Up/down potential

-21%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of BYD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.76
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
Revenue, $m
  2,603
  2,832
  3,070
  3,317
  3,575
  3,842
  4,120
  4,409
  4,709
  5,021
  5,345
  5,683
  6,035
  6,401
  6,782
  7,180
  7,595
  8,028
  8,480
  8,952
  9,445
  9,961
  10,500
  11,064
  11,655
  12,273
  12,919
  13,597
  14,307
  15,050
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,507
  1,624
  1,746
  1,873
  2,005
  2,142
  2,284
  2,432
  2,586
  2,746
  2,739
  2,912
  3,092
  3,280
  3,475
  3,679
  3,892
  4,113
  4,345
  4,587
  4,840
  5,104
  5,380
  5,669
  5,972
  6,288
  6,620
  6,967
  7,331
  7,712
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  675
  689
  705
  720
  736
  752
  769
  786
  803
  820
  839
  857
  876
  895
  915
  935
  955
  976
  998
  1,020
  1,042
  1,065
  1,089
  1,113
  1,137
  1,162
  1,188
  1,214
  1,241
  1,268
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,182
  2,313
  2,451
  2,593
  2,741
  2,894
  3,053
  3,218
  3,389
  3,566
  3,578
  3,769
  3,968
  4,175
  4,390
  4,614
  4,847
  5,089
  5,343
  5,607
  5,882
  6,169
  6,469
  6,782
  7,109
  7,450
  7,808
  8,181
  8,572
  8,980
Operating income, $m
  422
  518
  619
  724
  834
  948
  1,067
  1,191
  1,320
  1,455
  1,768
  1,914
  2,067
  2,226
  2,392
  2,566
  2,748
  2,938
  3,137
  3,345
  3,563
  3,792
  4,031
  4,282
  4,546
  4,822
  5,112
  5,416
  5,736
  6,071
EBITDA, $m
  1,064
  1,202
  1,345
  1,495
  1,651
  1,813
  1,982
  2,158
  2,341
  2,532
  2,731
  2,938
  3,154
  3,379
  3,614
  3,859
  4,116
  4,384
  4,664
  4,957
  5,264
  5,586
  5,922
  6,275
  6,645
  7,032
  7,439
  7,865
  8,312
  8,781
Interest expense (income), $m
  197
  169
  187
  206
  226
  246
  267
  290
  313
  336
  361
  387
  414
  442
  471
  501
  533
  566
  600
  636
  673
  712
  753
  795
  840
  887
  935
  986
  1,040
  1,096
  1,155
Earnings before tax, $m
  253
  331
  413
  499
  588
  681
  778
  879
  984
  1,093
  1,381
  1,500
  1,625
  1,755
  1,891
  2,034
  2,182
  2,338
  2,501
  2,672
  2,851
  3,039
  3,236
  3,442
  3,659
  3,887
  4,125
  4,376
  4,640
  4,916
Tax expense, $m
  68
  89
  112
  135
  159
  184
  210
  237
  266
  295
  373
  405
  439
  474
  511
  549
  589
  631
  675
  721
  770
  821
  874
  929
  988
  1,049
  1,114
  1,182
  1,253
  1,327
Net income, $m
  184
  242
  302
  364
  429
  497
  568
  641
  718
  798
  1,008
  1,095
  1,186
  1,281
  1,381
  1,484
  1,593
  1,707
  1,826
  1,951
  2,081
  2,218
  2,362
  2,513
  2,671
  2,837
  3,012
  3,195
  3,387
  3,589

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,115
  5,564
  6,031
  6,517
  7,023
  7,548
  8,094
  8,661
  9,251
  9,864
  10,502
  11,165
  11,856
  12,575
  13,325
  14,106
  14,921
  15,772
  16,660
  17,587
  18,557
  19,570
  20,629
  21,737
  22,897
  24,111
  25,382
  26,713
  28,108
  29,568
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,115
  5,564
  6,031
  6,517
  7,023
  7,548
  8,094
  8,661
  9,251
  9,864
  10,502
  11,165
  11,856
  12,575
  13,325
  14,106
  14,921
  15,772
  16,660
  17,587
  18,557
  19,570
  20,629
  21,737
  22,897
  24,111
  25,382
  26,713
  28,108
  29,568
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
  0.509
Average production assets, $m
  4,689
  5,100
  5,529
  5,974
  6,438
  6,919
  7,420
  7,940
  8,480
  9,042
  9,627
  10,235
  10,868
  11,528
  12,215
  12,931
  13,679
  14,458
  15,272
  16,123
  17,011
  17,940
  18,911
  19,927
  20,990
  22,103
  23,268
  24,488
  25,766
  27,106
Working capital, $m
  -96
  -105
  -114
  -123
  -132
  -142
  -152
  -163
  -174
  -186
  -198
  -210
  -223
  -237
  -251
  -266
  -281
  -297
  -314
  -331
  -349
  -369
  -389
  -409
  -431
  -454
  -478
  -503
  -529
  -557
Total debt, $m
  3,404
  3,747
  4,105
  4,477
  4,863
  5,265
  5,683
  6,117
  6,568
  7,037
  7,525
  8,032
  8,561
  9,111
  9,684
  10,282
  10,906
  11,556
  12,236
  12,945
  13,687
  14,462
  15,272
  16,120
  17,007
  17,936
  18,908
  19,927
  20,993
  22,111
Total liabilities, $m
  3,913
  4,256
  4,614
  4,986
  5,372
  5,774
  6,192
  6,626
  7,077
  7,546
  8,034
  8,541
  9,070
  9,620
  10,193
  10,791
  11,415
  12,066
  12,745
  13,454
  14,196
  14,971
  15,781
  16,629
  17,516
  18,445
  19,417
  20,436
  21,502
  22,620
Total equity, $m
  1,202
  1,307
  1,417
  1,532
  1,650
  1,774
  1,902
  2,035
  2,174
  2,318
  2,468
  2,624
  2,786
  2,955
  3,131
  3,315
  3,507
  3,706
  3,915
  4,133
  4,361
  4,599
  4,848
  5,108
  5,381
  5,666
  5,965
  6,278
  6,605
  6,949
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,115
  5,563
  6,031
  6,518
  7,022
  7,548
  8,094
  8,661
  9,251
  9,864
  10,502
  11,165
  11,856
  12,575
  13,324
  14,106
  14,922
  15,772
  16,660
  17,587
  18,557
  19,570
  20,629
  21,737
  22,897
  24,111
  25,382
  26,714
  28,107
  29,569
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.830
  2.870
  2.900
  2.920
  2.950
  2.970
  2.990
  3.010
  3.020
  3.040
  3.050
  3.060
  3.070
  3.080
  3.090
  3.100
  3.110
  3.120
  3.130
  3.130
  3.140
  3.140
  3.150
  3.160
  3.160
  3.170
  3.170
  3.170
  3.180
  3.180
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  184
  242
  302
  364
  429
  497
  568
  641
  718
  798
  1,008
  1,095
  1,186
  1,281
  1,381
  1,484
  1,593
  1,707
  1,826
  1,951
  2,081
  2,218
  2,362
  2,513
  2,671
  2,837
  3,012
  3,195
  3,387
  3,589
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  642
  683
  726
  771
  817
  865
  915
  967
  1,021
  1,077
  963
  1,024
  1,087
  1,153
  1,221
  1,293
  1,368
  1,446
  1,527
  1,612
  1,701
  1,794
  1,891
  1,993
  2,099
  2,210
  2,327
  2,449
  2,577
  2,711
Funds from operations, $m
  826
  925
  1,028
  1,135
  1,246
  1,362
  1,483
  1,608
  1,739
  1,876
  1,971
  2,119
  2,273
  2,434
  2,602
  2,778
  2,961
  3,153
  3,353
  3,563
  3,783
  4,012
  4,253
  4,506
  4,770
  5,048
  5,338
  5,643
  5,964
  6,299
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
Cash from operations, $m
  834
  933
  1,036
  1,144
  1,256
  1,372
  1,493
  1,619
  1,750
  1,887
  1,983
  2,131
  2,286
  2,448
  2,616
  2,792
  2,976
  3,169
  3,370
  3,580
  3,801
  4,032
  4,273
  4,527
  4,792
  5,070
  5,362
  5,669
  5,990
  6,327
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -429
  -469
  -510
  -553
  -597
  -644
  -692
  -742
  -794
  -848
  -904
  -963
  -1,024
  -1,087
  -1,153
  -1,221
  -1,293
  -1,368
  -1,446
  -1,527
  -1,612
  -1,701
  -1,794
  -1,891
  -1,993
  -2,099
  -2,210
  -2,327
  -2,449
  -2,577
New CAPEX, $m
  -396
  -412
  -429
  -446
  -463
  -482
  -500
  -520
  -541
  -562
  -585
  -608
  -633
  -659
  -687
  -716
  -747
  -780
  -814
  -850
  -888
  -929
  -971
  -1,016
  -1,063
  -1,113
  -1,165
  -1,220
  -1,278
  -1,339
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -825
  -881
  -939
  -999
  -1,060
  -1,126
  -1,192
  -1,262
  -1,335
  -1,410
  -1,489
  -1,571
  -1,657
  -1,746
  -1,840
  -1,937
  -2,040
  -2,148
  -2,260
  -2,377
  -2,500
  -2,630
  -2,765
  -2,907
  -3,056
  -3,212
  -3,375
  -3,547
  -3,727
  -3,916
Free cash flow, $m
  9
  53
  98
  145
  195
  247
  301
  357
  416
  477
  494
  560
  629
  701
  776
  854
  936
  1,021
  1,110
  1,203
  1,300
  1,402
  1,508
  1,620
  1,736
  1,859
  1,987
  2,121
  2,263
  2,411
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  328
  344
  358
  372
  387
  402
  418
  434
  451
  469
  488
  508
  528
  550
  573
  598
  624
  651
  679
  710
  741
  775
  810
  848
  887
  929
  972
  1,018
  1,067
  1,118
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  328
  344
  358
  372
  387
  402
  418
  434
  451
  469
  488
  508
  528
  550
  573
  598
  624
  651
  679
  710
  741
  775
  810
  848
  887
  929
  972
  1,018
  1,067
  1,118
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  337
  396
  455
  517
  581
  648
  718
  791
  867
  946
  982
  1,068
  1,158
  1,252
  1,350
  1,452
  1,560
  1,672
  1,789
  1,912
  2,042
  2,177
  2,319
  2,467
  2,623
  2,787
  2,959
  3,140
  3,329
  3,529
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -200
  -209
  -218
  -228
  -238
  -249
  -260
  -273
  -285
  -299
  -313
  -328
  -343
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  77
  82
  86
  90
  95
  100
Cash available for distribution, $m
  236
  291
  346
  403
  463
  525
  590
  658
  728
  802
  832
  912
  995
  1,083
  1,174
  1,269
  1,368
  1,472
  1,581
  1,695
  1,814
  1,939
  2,070
  2,207
  2,351
  2,502
  2,661
  2,827
  3,002
  3,185
Discount rate, %
  9.80
  10.29
  10.80
  11.34
  11.91
  12.51
  13.13
  13.79
  14.48
  15.20
  15.96
  16.76
  17.60
  18.48
  19.40
  20.37
  21.39
  22.46
  23.58
  24.76
  26.00
  27.30
  28.67
  30.10
  31.61
  33.19
  34.85
  36.59
  38.42
  40.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  215
  239
  254
  262
  264
  259
  249
  234
  216
  195
  163
  142
  121
  101
  82
  65
  51
  38
  28
  20
  14
  10
  6
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Boyd Gaming Corporation is a multi-jurisdictional gaming company. The Company operated 24 wholly owned gaming entertainment properties in Nevada, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana and Mississippi, as of December 31, 2016. It operates through three segments: Las Vegas Locals, Downtown Las Vegas, and Midwest and South. It owns and operates a travel agency and a captive insurance company that underwrites travel-related insurance, each located in Hawaii. The Company's Las Vegas Locals segment includes properties, such as Gold Coast Hotel and Casino, The Orleans Hotel and Casino, and Sam's Town Hotel and Gambling Hall. The Downtown Las Vegas segment includes three properties, such as California Hotel and Casino Fremont Hotel and Casino and Main Street Station Casino, Brewery and Hotel Street Station. Its Midwest and South segment's properties include Par-A-Dice Hotel Casino, Diamond Jo Dubuque, Diamond Jo Worth, Kansas Star Casino, Amelia Belle Casino and Evangeline Downs.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Boyd Gaming (BYD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9.7
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book 4.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 35.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 22.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 6
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 342.5%
Total Debt to Equity 345.7%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 121.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.7%
Return On Total Capital 10.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Equity 58%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.7%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 46.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.6%
EBITDA Margin 18.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.2%
Operating Margin 10%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Net Profit Margin 19.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Effective Tax Rate -2462.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -876.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

BYD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BYD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2384 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Boyd Gaming. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Boyd Gaming. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BYD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.8%, whose default value for BYD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Boyd Gaming, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Boyd Gaming.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BYD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 58.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $660 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BYD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.5% for Boyd Gaming.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Boyd Gaming. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BYD stock is equal to 0.7%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BYD are equal to 180.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Boyd Gaming operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BYD is equal to -3.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1101 million for Boyd Gaming - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 115 million for Boyd Gaming is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Boyd Gaming at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.1 billion.

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