Intrinsic value of Baozun ADR - BZUN

Previous Close

$32.49

  Intrinsic Value

$46.25

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+42%

Previous close

$32.49

 
Intrinsic value

$46.25

 
Up/down potential

+42%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of BZUN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  28.50
  26.15
  24.04
  22.13
  20.42
  18.88
  17.49
  16.24
  15.12
  14.10
  13.19
  12.37
  11.64
  10.97
  10.38
  9.84
  9.35
  8.92
  8.53
  8.17
  7.86
  7.57
  7.31
  7.08
  6.87
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
Revenue, $m
  806
  1,017
  1,261
  1,540
  1,854
  2,204
  2,590
  3,010
  3,466
  3,954
  4,476
  5,030
  5,615
  6,231
  6,878
  7,555
  8,261
  8,998
  9,766
  10,564
  11,394
  12,257
  13,153
  14,085
  15,053
  16,059
  17,106
  18,195
  19,329
  20,509
Variable operating expenses, $m
  656
  827
  1,026
  1,252
  1,508
  1,792
  2,105
  2,446
  2,816
  3,213
  3,635
  4,084
  4,560
  5,060
  5,585
  6,135
  6,708
  7,307
  7,930
  8,578
  9,252
  9,952
  10,680
  11,437
  12,223
  13,040
  13,890
  14,775
  15,695
  16,654
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  81
  83
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  94
  96
  98
  100
  103
  105
  107
  109
  112
  114
  117
  119
  122
  125
  128
  130
  133
  136
  139
  142
  145
  148
  152
Total operating expenses, $m
  737
  910
  1,110
  1,338
  1,596
  1,882
  2,197
  2,540
  2,912
  3,311
  3,735
  4,187
  4,665
  5,167
  5,694
  6,247
  6,822
  7,424
  8,049
  8,700
  9,377
  10,080
  10,810
  11,570
  12,359
  13,179
  14,032
  14,920
  15,843
  16,806
Operating income, $m
  69
  107
  151
  201
  259
  322
  393
  470
  554
  643
  741
  843
  951
  1,064
  1,183
  1,308
  1,439
  1,575
  1,716
  1,864
  2,017
  2,177
  2,342
  2,515
  2,694
  2,880
  3,074
  3,275
  3,485
  3,704
EBITDA, $m
  79
  119
  166
  220
  280
  348
  422
  504
  592
  687
  788
  896
  1,010
  1,130
  1,256
  1,388
  1,526
  1,669
  1,819
  1,975
  2,137
  2,306
  2,481
  2,663
  2,852
  3,049
  3,254
  3,467
  3,689
  3,920
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  2
  5
  8
  11
  16
  20
  26
  32
  38
  45
  52
  60
  69
  78
  87
  97
  107
  118
  129
  141
  153
  165
  178
  192
  206
  221
  236
  252
  269
  286
Earnings before tax, $m
  67
  102
  143
  190
  243
  302
  367
  438
  516
  598
  689
  783
  882
  987
  1,097
  1,212
  1,332
  1,457
  1,587
  1,723
  1,864
  2,011
  2,164
  2,323
  2,487
  2,659
  2,837
  3,023
  3,217
  3,418
Tax expense, $m
  18
  28
  39
  51
  66
  82
  99
  118
  139
  162
  186
  211
  238
  266
  296
  327
  360
  393
  429
  465
  503
  543
  584
  627
  672
  718
  766
  816
  868
  923
Net income, $m
  49
  75
  104
  139
  177
  221
  268
  320
  376
  437
  503
  571
  644
  720
  801
  884
  972
  1,064
  1,159
  1,258
  1,361
  1,468
  1,580
  1,695
  1,816
  1,941
  2,071
  2,207
  2,348
  2,495

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  578
  729
  904
  1,105
  1,330
  1,581
  1,858
  2,160
  2,486
  2,837
  3,211
  3,608
  4,028
  4,470
  4,934
  5,419
  5,926
  6,455
  7,005
  7,578
  8,173
  8,792
  9,435
  10,104
  10,798
  11,520
  12,271
  13,053
  13,866
  14,712
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  578
  729
  904
  1,105
  1,330
  1,581
  1,858
  2,160
  2,486
  2,837
  3,211
  3,608
  4,028
  4,470
  4,934
  5,419
  5,926
  6,455
  7,005
  7,578
  8,173
  8,792
  9,435
  10,104
  10,798
  11,520
  12,271
  13,053
  13,866
  14,712
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.394
  1.395
  1.395
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
  1.394
Average production assets, $m
  48
  61
  76
  92
  111
  132
  155
  181
  208
  237
  269
  302
  337
  374
  413
  453
  496
  540
  586
  634
  684
  735
  789
  845
  903
  964
  1,026
  1,092
  1,160
  1,231
Working capital, $m
  181
  228
  282
  345
  415
  494
  580
  674
  776
  886
  1,003
  1,127
  1,258
  1,396
  1,541
  1,692
  1,851
  2,016
  2,187
  2,366
  2,552
  2,745
  2,946
  3,155
  3,372
  3,597
  3,832
  4,076
  4,330
  4,594
Total debt, $m
  83
  143
  211
  290
  378
  477
  585
  703
  831
  969
  1,116
  1,271
  1,436
  1,609
  1,791
  1,981
  2,180
  2,387
  2,603
  2,827
  3,061
  3,303
  3,556
  3,818
  4,090
  4,373
  4,667
  4,973
  5,292
  5,624
Total liabilities, $m
  227
  286
  355
  433
  521
  620
  728
  847
  975
  1,112
  1,259
  1,414
  1,579
  1,752
  1,934
  2,124
  2,323
  2,530
  2,746
  2,971
  3,204
  3,447
  3,699
  3,961
  4,233
  4,516
  4,810
  5,117
  5,435
  5,767
Total equity, $m
  351
  443
  550
  672
  809
  961
  1,130
  1,313
  1,511
  1,725
  1,952
  2,194
  2,449
  2,718
  3,000
  3,295
  3,603
  3,925
  4,259
  4,607
  4,969
  5,346
  5,737
  6,143
  6,565
  7,004
  7,461
  7,936
  8,430
  8,945
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  578
  729
  905
  1,105
  1,330
  1,581
  1,858
  2,160
  2,486
  2,837
  3,211
  3,608
  4,028
  4,470
  4,934
  5,419
  5,926
  6,455
  7,005
  7,578
  8,173
  8,793
  9,436
  10,104
  10,798
  11,520
  12,271
  13,053
  13,865
  14,712
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.240
  0.320
  0.380
  0.430
  0.470
  0.500
  0.520
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  49
  75
  104
  139
  177
  221
  268
  320
  376
  437
  503
  571
  644
  720
  801
  884
  972
  1,064
  1,159
  1,258
  1,361
  1,468
  1,580
  1,695
  1,816
  1,941
  2,071
  2,207
  2,348
  2,495
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  10
  13
  15
  18
  21
  25
  29
  34
  38
  43
  47
  53
  59
  66
  72
  80
  87
  95
  103
  111
  120
  129
  138
  148
  158
  169
  180
  192
  203
  216
Funds from operations, $m
  59
  87
  120
  157
  199
  246
  297
  354
  415
  480
  550
  624
  703
  786
  873
  964
  1,059
  1,158
  1,262
  1,369
  1,481
  1,597
  1,718
  1,844
  1,974
  2,110
  2,251
  2,398
  2,552
  2,711
Change in working capital, $m
  40
  47
  55
  63
  70
  78
  86
  94
  102
  109
  117
  124
  131
  138
  145
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  186
  193
  201
  209
  217
  225
  234
  244
  254
  264
Cash from operations, $m
  19
  40
  65
  94
  128
  167
  211
  259
  313
  371
  433
  500
  572
  648
  728
  812
  901
  993
  1,090
  1,190
  1,295
  1,404
  1,517
  1,635
  1,757
  1,885
  2,017
  2,154
  2,298
  2,447
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -8
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -32
  -36
  -42
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -66
  -72
  -80
  -87
  -95
  -103
  -111
  -120
  -129
  -138
  -148
  -158
  -169
  -180
  -192
  -203
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -17
  -21
  -26
  -30
  -35
  -41
  -46
  -52
  -59
  -65
  -73
  -80
  -88
  -96
  -105
  -113
  -122
  -131
  -141
  -151
  -161
  -172
  -183
  -194
  -206
  -218
  -232
  -245
  -260
  -274
Free cash flow, $m
  2
  19
  40
  64
  93
  127
  165
  207
  254
  305
  360
  420
  484
  552
  624
  699
  779
  862
  949
  1,040
  1,134
  1,232
  1,334
  1,441
  1,551
  1,666
  1,785
  1,909
  2,038
  2,172
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  50
  59
  69
  78
  88
  98
  108
  118
  128
  137
  147
  156
  165
  173
  182
  190
  199
  207
  216
  224
  233
  243
  252
  262
  272
  283
  294
  306
  319
  332
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  29
  17
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  79
  76
  71
  78
  88
  98
  108
  118
  128
  137
  147
  156
  165
  173
  182
  190
  199
  207
  216
  224
  233
  243
  252
  262
  272
  283
  294
  306
  319
  332
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  81
  95
  110
  143
  182
  225
  273
  325
  382
  442
  507
  576
  648
  725
  806
  890
  978
  1,069
  1,165
  1,264
  1,367
  1,475
  1,587
  1,703
  1,823
  1,949
  2,079
  2,215
  2,357
  2,504
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -78
  -92
  -107
  -122
  -137
  -153
  -168
  -183
  -198
  -213
  -228
  -242
  -255
  -269
  -282
  -295
  -308
  -321
  -335
  -348
  -362
  -376
  -391
  -406
  -422
  -439
  -457
  -475
  -494
  -515
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  3
  4
  4
  21
  45
  72
  105
  142
  183
  229
  279
  334
  393
  456
  523
  595
  669
  748
  830
  916
  1,005
  1,099
  1,196
  1,296
  1,401
  1,510
  1,623
  1,740
  1,862
  1,989
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  3
  3
  3
  17
  35
  53
  71
  89
  105
  120
  133
  143
  149
  153
  154
  151
  146
  138
  128
  116
  104
  91
  78
  66
  55
  44
  35
  27
  20
  15
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  98.3
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5
  97.5

Baozun Inc. is a brand e-commerce solutions company. The Company is engaged in providing end-to-end e-commerce solutions, including the sales of apparel, home and electronic products, online store design and setup, visual merchandising and marketing, online store operations, customer services, warehousing and order fulfillment. Its segments include the brand e-commerce segment, which provides brand-e-commerce solutions to its brand partners, including IT services, store operations, digital marketing, customer services, warehousing and fulfillment, and the Maikefeng segment that operates its retail online platform, Maikefeng. Its subsidiaries include Baozun Hong Kong Holding Limited and Baozun Hongkong Investment Limited.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Baozun ADR (BZUN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 398.4
Price to Sales 10.6
Price to Book 22.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2589.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -470.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 30.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 62.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 34.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 8
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 7.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1%
Return On Total Capital 6.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.4%
Return On Equity 6.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.4%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 43.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36%
EBITDA Margin 4.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Operating Margin 2.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Net Profit Margin 2.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Effective Tax Rate 20%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

BZUN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BZUN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $627.087061669 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Baozun ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Baozun ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BZUN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 28.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BZUN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Baozun ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Baozun ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BZUN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $79 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BZUN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Baozun ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Baozun ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BZUN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BZUN are equal to 6%.

Life of production assets of 5.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Baozun ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BZUN is equal to 22.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $273.431529625 million for Baozun ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 52.189 million for Baozun ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Baozun ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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