Intrinsic value of CA - CA

Previous Close

$44.02

  Intrinsic Value

$47.70

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+8%

Previous close

$44.02

 
Intrinsic value

$47.70

 
Up/down potential

+8%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of CA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 18.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  4,320
  4,419
  4,533
  4,660
  4,801
  4,956
  5,125
  5,308
  5,505
  5,716
  5,942
  6,183
  6,440
  6,713
  7,002
  7,309
  7,634
  7,978
  8,341
  8,724
  9,128
  9,555
  10,004
  10,478
  10,977
  11,502
  12,055
  12,636
  13,248
  13,892
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,090
  3,143
  3,203
  3,271
  3,346
  3,429
  3,519
  3,616
  3,721
  3,833
  3,162
  3,290
  3,427
  3,572
  3,726
  3,889
  4,062
  4,245
  4,438
  4,642
  4,857
  5,084
  5,323
  5,575
  5,841
  6,120
  6,414
  6,724
  7,049
  7,392
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,090
  3,143
  3,203
  3,271
  3,346
  3,429
  3,519
  3,616
  3,721
  3,833
  3,162
  3,290
  3,427
  3,572
  3,726
  3,889
  4,062
  4,245
  4,438
  4,642
  4,857
  5,084
  5,323
  5,575
  5,841
  6,120
  6,414
  6,724
  7,049
  7,392
Operating income, $m
  1,230
  1,276
  1,329
  1,389
  1,455
  1,528
  1,607
  1,692
  1,784
  1,883
  2,780
  2,893
  3,013
  3,141
  3,276
  3,420
  3,572
  3,733
  3,903
  4,082
  4,271
  4,471
  4,681
  4,903
  5,136
  5,382
  5,640
  5,912
  6,199
  6,500
EBITDA, $m
  2,219
  2,270
  2,329
  2,394
  2,467
  2,547
  2,633
  2,727
  2,828
  2,937
  3,053
  3,177
  3,309
  3,449
  3,598
  3,755
  3,922
  4,099
  4,285
  4,482
  4,690
  4,909
  5,140
  5,383
  5,640
  5,909
  6,193
  6,492
  6,807
  7,137
Interest expense (income), $m
  86
  150
  158
  167
  177
  188
  201
  214
  229
  245
  263
  281
  301
  322
  345
  369
  394
  422
  450
  480
  512
  546
  582
  619
  659
  701
  744
  791
  839
  891
  944
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,079
  1,118
  1,162
  1,212
  1,267
  1,327
  1,392
  1,463
  1,539
  1,620
  2,499
  2,592
  2,691
  2,796
  2,907
  3,026
  3,150
  3,283
  3,422
  3,570
  3,725
  3,889
  4,062
  4,244
  4,435
  4,637
  4,850
  5,073
  5,308
  5,556
Tax expense, $m
  291
  302
  314
  327
  342
  358
  376
  395
  415
  438
  675
  700
  727
  755
  785
  817
  851
  886
  924
  964
  1,006
  1,050
  1,097
  1,146
  1,198
  1,252
  1,309
  1,370
  1,433
  1,500
Net income, $m
  788
  816
  848
  885
  925
  969
  1,016
  1,068
  1,123
  1,183
  1,824
  1,892
  1,964
  2,041
  2,122
  2,209
  2,300
  2,396
  2,498
  2,606
  2,719
  2,839
  2,965
  3,098
  3,238
  3,385
  3,540
  3,703
  3,875
  4,056

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  12,972
  13,270
  13,611
  13,994
  14,419
  14,884
  15,391
  15,940
  16,531
  17,165
  17,844
  18,568
  19,339
  20,159
  21,028
  21,950
  22,925
  23,957
  25,047
  26,198
  27,412
  28,693
  30,043
  31,465
  32,963
  34,540
  36,200
  37,947
  39,785
  41,718
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  12,972
  13,270
  13,611
  13,994
  14,419
  14,884
  15,391
  15,940
  16,531
  17,165
  17,844
  18,568
  19,339
  20,159
  21,028
  21,950
  22,925
  23,957
  25,047
  26,198
  27,412
  28,693
  30,043
  31,465
  32,963
  34,540
  36,200
  37,947
  39,785
  41,718
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
Average production assets, $m
  4,341
  4,441
  4,555
  4,683
  4,825
  4,981
  5,151
  5,334
  5,532
  5,745
  5,972
  6,214
  6,472
  6,746
  7,037
  7,346
  7,672
  8,018
  8,382
  8,767
  9,174
  9,602
  10,054
  10,530
  11,032
  11,559
  12,115
  12,699
  13,315
  13,961
Working capital, $m
  -2,091
  -2,139
  -2,194
  -2,256
  -2,324
  -2,399
  -2,481
  -2,569
  -2,664
  -2,767
  -2,876
  -2,993
  -3,117
  -3,249
  -3,389
  -3,538
  -3,695
  -3,861
  -4,037
  -4,222
  -4,418
  -4,624
  -4,842
  -5,071
  -5,313
  -5,567
  -5,834
  -6,116
  -6,412
  -6,724
Total debt, $m
  2,931
  3,093
  3,278
  3,486
  3,716
  3,969
  4,244
  4,542
  4,863
  5,208
  5,576
  5,970
  6,388
  6,833
  7,305
  7,806
  8,336
  8,896
  9,488
  10,112
  10,772
  11,467
  12,200
  12,972
  13,786
  14,642
  15,544
  16,492
  17,490
  18,540
Total liabilities, $m
  7,044
  7,206
  7,391
  7,599
  7,829
  8,082
  8,357
  8,655
  8,976
  9,321
  9,689
  10,083
  10,501
  10,946
  11,418
  11,919
  12,449
  13,009
  13,601
  14,225
  14,885
  15,580
  16,313
  17,085
  17,899
  18,755
  19,657
  20,605
  21,603
  22,653
Total equity, $m
  5,928
  6,065
  6,220
  6,395
  6,589
  6,802
  7,034
  7,284
  7,555
  7,845
  8,155
  8,486
  8,838
  9,213
  9,610
  10,031
  10,477
  10,948
  11,446
  11,972
  12,527
  13,113
  13,729
  14,379
  15,064
  15,785
  16,543
  17,342
  18,182
  19,065
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  12,972
  13,271
  13,611
  13,994
  14,418
  14,884
  15,391
  15,939
  16,531
  17,166
  17,844
  18,569
  19,339
  20,159
  21,028
  21,950
  22,926
  23,957
  25,047
  26,197
  27,412
  28,693
  30,042
  31,464
  32,963
  34,540
  36,200
  37,947
  39,785
  41,718
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.490
  0.510
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.580
  0.600
  0.620
  0.640
  0.660
  0.680
  0.700
  0.720
  0.740
  0.760
  0.780
  0.800
  0.810
  0.830
  0.840
  0.860
  0.870
  0.890
  0.900
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  788
  816
  848
  885
  925
  969
  1,016
  1,068
  1,123
  1,183
  1,824
  1,892
  1,964
  2,041
  2,122
  2,209
  2,300
  2,396
  2,498
  2,606
  2,719
  2,839
  2,965
  3,098
  3,238
  3,385
  3,540
  3,703
  3,875
  4,056
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  990
  994
  1,000
  1,005
  1,012
  1,019
  1,027
  1,035
  1,044
  1,054
  273
  284
  296
  308
  321
  335
  350
  366
  383
  400
  419
  438
  459
  481
  504
  528
  553
  580
  608
  638
Funds from operations, $m
  1,778
  1,810
  1,848
  1,890
  1,937
  1,988
  2,043
  2,103
  2,167
  2,237
  2,097
  2,176
  2,260
  2,349
  2,444
  2,544
  2,650
  2,762
  2,881
  3,006
  3,138
  3,277
  3,424
  3,579
  3,742
  3,913
  4,093
  4,283
  4,483
  4,693
Change in working capital, $m
  -41
  -48
  -55
  -62
  -68
  -75
  -82
  -88
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -117
  -124
  -132
  -140
  -149
  -157
  -166
  -176
  -185
  -196
  -206
  -218
  -229
  -241
  -254
  -268
  -282
  -296
  -312
Cash from operations, $m
  1,819
  1,858
  1,903
  1,952
  2,005
  2,063
  2,125
  2,191
  2,263
  2,339
  2,206
  2,293
  2,384
  2,481
  2,584
  2,693
  2,807
  2,929
  3,057
  3,192
  3,334
  3,484
  3,642
  3,808
  3,983
  4,167
  4,361
  4,565
  4,779
  5,005
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -194
  -198
  -203
  -208
  -214
  -220
  -227
  -235
  -244
  -253
  -262
  -273
  -284
  -296
  -308
  -321
  -335
  -350
  -366
  -383
  -400
  -419
  -438
  -459
  -481
  -504
  -528
  -553
  -580
  -608
New CAPEX, $m
  -85
  -100
  -114
  -128
  -142
  -156
  -170
  -184
  -198
  -212
  -227
  -242
  -258
  -274
  -291
  -308
  -326
  -345
  -365
  -385
  -406
  -429
  -452
  -476
  -501
  -528
  -556
  -585
  -615
  -647
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -279
  -298
  -317
  -336
  -356
  -376
  -397
  -419
  -442
  -465
  -489
  -515
  -542
  -570
  -599
  -629
  -661
  -695
  -731
  -768
  -806
  -848
  -890
  -935
  -982
  -1,032
  -1,084
  -1,138
  -1,195
  -1,255
Free cash flow, $m
  1,540
  1,560
  1,586
  1,616
  1,649
  1,686
  1,728
  1,773
  1,821
  1,874
  1,717
  1,778
  1,842
  1,911
  1,985
  2,063
  2,146
  2,233
  2,326
  2,424
  2,527
  2,636
  2,751
  2,873
  3,001
  3,136
  3,278
  3,427
  3,584
  3,750
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  148
  162
  185
  208
  230
  253
  275
  298
  321
  344
  369
  393
  419
  445
  472
  500
  530
  560
  592
  625
  659
  695
  733
  772
  813
  856
  901
  949
  998
  1,050
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  148
  162
  185
  208
  230
  253
  275
  298
  321
  344
  369
  393
  419
  445
  472
  500
  530
  560
  592
  625
  659
  695
  733
  772
  813
  856
  901
  949
  998
  1,050
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,688
  1,722
  1,771
  1,824
  1,880
  1,939
  2,003
  2,071
  2,142
  2,219
  2,085
  2,171
  2,261
  2,356
  2,457
  2,563
  2,675
  2,793
  2,918
  3,049
  3,187
  3,332
  3,484
  3,645
  3,814
  3,992
  4,179
  4,376
  4,582
  4,799
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -117
  -136
  -156
  -175
  -194
  -213
  -232
  -251
  -270
  -290
  -310
  -331
  -352
  -375
  -397
  -421
  -446
  -471
  -498
  -526
  -555
  -585
  -617
  -650
  -685
  -721
  -759
  -798
  -840
  -883
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  84
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,654
  1,586
  1,615
  1,649
  1,686
  1,727
  1,771
  1,820
  1,872
  1,929
  1,775
  1,840
  1,909
  1,982
  2,060
  2,142
  2,229
  2,322
  2,419
  2,523
  2,632
  2,746
  2,868
  2,995
  3,130
  3,271
  3,420
  3,577
  3,742
  3,916
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,586
  1,452
  1,406
  1,357
  1,307
  1,253
  1,197
  1,137
  1,075
  1,011
  843
  785
  726
  665
  605
  544
  485
  428
  373
  321
  272
  228
  188
  153
  122
  95
  73
  55
  41
  29
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

CA, Inc. (CA) is engaged in providing software solutions enabling customers to plan, develop, manage and secure applications and enterprise environments across distributed, cloud, mobile and mainframe platforms. The Company operates through three business segments: Mainframe Solutions, Enterprise Solutions and Services. Its Mainframe Solutions and Enterprise Solutions segments comprise the Company's software business organized by the nature of its software offerings and the platform on which the products operate. The Services segment comprises product implementation, consulting, customer education, customer training and application management services. CA's Mainframe Solutions segment consists of various product offerings, including Application Development, Databases and Database Management, Security & Compliance, and Systems and Operations Management. The Enterprise Solutions segment consists of various product offerings, including Agile Management, DevOps and Security.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CA (CA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.5
Price to Sales 4.5
Price to Book 3.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 154
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 48.7%
Total Debt to Equity 49.1%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Return On Total Capital 9.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Return On Equity 14%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 85.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 85.5%
EBITDA Margin 36.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.3%
Operating Margin 28.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 26.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.6%
Net Profit Margin 19.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
Effective Tax Rate 27.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.1%
Payout Ratio 55.2%

CA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4235 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CA. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of CA. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CA, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CA.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for CA.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CA. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CA are equal to 100.5%.

Life of production assets of 21.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CA operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CA is equal to -48.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $5895 million for CA - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 416.617 million for CA is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CA at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $18.3 billion.

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