Intrinsic value of CA - CA

Previous Close

$43.98

  Intrinsic Value

$41.67

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-5%

Previous close

$43.98

 
Intrinsic value

$41.67

 
Up/down potential

-5%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of CA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 18.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  4,117
  4,211
  4,320
  4,441
  4,576
  4,724
  4,884
  5,059
  5,246
  5,447
  5,663
  5,893
  6,137
  6,397
  6,673
  6,966
  7,275
  7,603
  7,949
  8,314
  8,699
  9,106
  9,534
  9,985
  10,461
  10,961
  11,488
  12,043
  12,626
  13,239
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,939
  2,988
  3,044
  3,107
  3,176
  3,252
  3,335
  3,425
  3,522
  3,626
  2,920
  3,039
  3,165
  3,299
  3,442
  3,592
  3,752
  3,921
  4,099
  4,288
  4,486
  4,696
  4,917
  5,150
  5,395
  5,653
  5,925
  6,211
  6,511
  6,828
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,939
  2,988
  3,044
  3,107
  3,176
  3,252
  3,335
  3,425
  3,522
  3,626
  2,920
  3,039
  3,165
  3,299
  3,442
  3,592
  3,752
  3,921
  4,099
  4,288
  4,486
  4,696
  4,917
  5,150
  5,395
  5,653
  5,925
  6,211
  6,511
  6,828
Operating income, $m
  1,177
  1,223
  1,276
  1,334
  1,400
  1,471
  1,549
  1,633
  1,724
  1,822
  2,742
  2,854
  2,972
  3,098
  3,232
  3,373
  3,523
  3,682
  3,849
  4,026
  4,213
  4,410
  4,617
  4,836
  5,066
  5,308
  5,563
  5,832
  6,114
  6,411
EBITDA, $m
  2,785
  2,849
  2,923
  3,005
  3,096
  3,196
  3,305
  3,422
  3,549
  3,686
  3,831
  3,987
  4,152
  4,328
  4,515
  4,713
  4,922
  5,144
  5,378
  5,625
  5,886
  6,161
  6,451
  6,756
  7,078
  7,416
  7,773
  8,148
  8,542
  8,957
Interest expense (income), $m
  86
  151
  158
  167
  177
  188
  201
  215
  229
  246
  263
  282
  302
  323
  346
  370
  395
  422
  451
  481
  513
  547
  583
  621
  660
  702
  746
  792
  841
  893
  947
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,027
  1,065
  1,108
  1,157
  1,211
  1,270
  1,334
  1,404
  1,479
  1,559
  2,461
  2,552
  2,649
  2,753
  2,862
  2,978
  3,101
  3,231
  3,368
  3,513
  3,666
  3,827
  3,997
  4,175
  4,364
  4,562
  4,771
  4,991
  5,222
  5,465
Tax expense, $m
  277
  287
  299
  312
  327
  343
  360
  379
  399
  421
  664
  689
  715
  743
  773
  804
  837
  872
  909
  948
  990
  1,033
  1,079
  1,127
  1,178
  1,232
  1,288
  1,347
  1,410
  1,475
Net income, $m
  749
  777
  809
  845
  884
  927
  974
  1,025
  1,079
  1,138
  1,796
  1,863
  1,934
  2,009
  2,089
  2,174
  2,264
  2,359
  2,459
  2,564
  2,676
  2,794
  2,918
  3,048
  3,186
  3,330
  3,483
  3,643
  3,812
  3,989

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  12,865
  13,161
  13,499
  13,879
  14,299
  14,761
  15,264
  15,808
  16,394
  17,023
  17,696
  18,415
  19,179
  19,992
  20,854
  21,768
  22,736
  23,759
  24,840
  25,981
  27,185
  28,455
  29,794
  31,205
  32,690
  34,254
  35,901
  37,633
  39,456
  41,373
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  12,865
  13,161
  13,499
  13,879
  14,299
  14,761
  15,264
  15,808
  16,394
  17,023
  17,696
  18,415
  19,179
  19,992
  20,854
  21,768
  22,736
  23,759
  24,840
  25,981
  27,185
  28,455
  29,794
  31,205
  32,690
  34,254
  35,901
  37,633
  39,456
  41,373
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
Average production assets, $m
  7,916
  8,099
  8,307
  8,540
  8,799
  9,083
  9,393
  9,728
  10,088
  10,475
  10,890
  11,332
  11,802
  12,302
  12,833
  13,395
  13,991
  14,620
  15,285
  15,988
  16,729
  17,510
  18,334
  19,202
  20,116
  21,079
  22,092
  23,158
  24,279
  25,459
Working capital, $m
  -95
  -97
  -99
  -102
  -105
  -109
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -252
  -264
  -277
  -290
  -305
Total debt, $m
  2,933
  3,095
  3,281
  3,489
  3,720
  3,974
  4,250
  4,549
  4,870
  5,216
  5,585
  5,980
  6,399
  6,846
  7,319
  7,821
  8,352
  8,914
  9,507
  10,134
  10,795
  11,492
  12,227
  13,001
  13,817
  14,676
  15,579
  16,530
  17,531
  18,584
Total liabilities, $m
  7,063
  7,225
  7,411
  7,619
  7,850
  8,104
  8,380
  8,679
  9,000
  9,346
  9,715
  10,110
  10,529
  10,976
  11,449
  11,951
  12,482
  13,044
  13,637
  14,264
  14,925
  15,622
  16,357
  17,131
  17,947
  18,806
  19,709
  20,660
  21,661
  22,714
Total equity, $m
  5,802
  5,935
  6,088
  6,259
  6,449
  6,657
  6,884
  7,129
  7,394
  7,678
  7,981
  8,305
  8,650
  9,016
  9,405
  9,818
  10,254
  10,715
  11,203
  11,717
  12,261
  12,833
  13,437
  14,073
  14,743
  15,449
  16,191
  16,972
  17,794
  18,659
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  12,865
  13,160
  13,499
  13,878
  14,299
  14,761
  15,264
  15,808
  16,394
  17,024
  17,696
  18,415
  19,179
  19,992
  20,854
  21,769
  22,736
  23,759
  24,840
  25,981
  27,186
  28,455
  29,794
  31,204
  32,690
  34,255
  35,900
  37,632
  39,455
  41,373
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.510
  0.520
  0.540
  0.560
  0.580
  0.600
  0.620
  0.640
  0.660
  0.680
  0.700
  0.720
  0.740
  0.760
  0.780
  0.800
  0.810
  0.830
  0.850
  0.860
  0.880
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.990
  1.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  749
  777
  809
  845
  884
  927
  974
  1,025
  1,079
  1,138
  1,796
  1,863
  1,934
  2,009
  2,089
  2,174
  2,264
  2,359
  2,459
  2,564
  2,676
  2,794
  2,918
  3,048
  3,186
  3,330
  3,483
  3,643
  3,812
  3,989
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,608
  1,626
  1,647
  1,670
  1,696
  1,725
  1,756
  1,789
  1,825
  1,864
  1,089
  1,133
  1,180
  1,230
  1,283
  1,340
  1,399
  1,462
  1,529
  1,599
  1,673
  1,751
  1,833
  1,920
  2,012
  2,108
  2,209
  2,316
  2,428
  2,546
Funds from operations, $m
  2,357
  2,404
  2,456
  2,515
  2,580
  2,652
  2,730
  2,814
  2,905
  3,002
  2,885
  2,996
  3,114
  3,240
  3,373
  3,514
  3,663
  3,821
  3,987
  4,163
  4,349
  4,545
  4,751
  4,968
  5,197
  5,438
  5,692
  5,959
  6,240
  6,535
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
Cash from operations, $m
  2,359
  2,406
  2,459
  2,518
  2,584
  2,655
  2,733
  2,818
  2,909
  3,006
  2,890
  3,001
  3,120
  3,246
  3,379
  3,520
  3,670
  3,828
  3,995
  4,172
  4,358
  4,554
  4,761
  4,979
  5,208
  5,450
  5,704
  5,972
  6,253
  6,549
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -776
  -792
  -810
  -831
  -854
  -880
  -908
  -939
  -973
  -1,009
  -1,048
  -1,089
  -1,133
  -1,180
  -1,230
  -1,283
  -1,340
  -1,399
  -1,462
  -1,529
  -1,599
  -1,673
  -1,751
  -1,833
  -1,920
  -2,012
  -2,108
  -2,209
  -2,316
  -2,428
New CAPEX, $m
  -154
  -182
  -208
  -234
  -259
  -284
  -309
  -335
  -361
  -387
  -414
  -442
  -471
  -500
  -531
  -562
  -595
  -630
  -665
  -702
  -741
  -782
  -824
  -868
  -914
  -962
  -1,013
  -1,066
  -1,122
  -1,180
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -930
  -974
  -1,018
  -1,065
  -1,113
  -1,164
  -1,217
  -1,274
  -1,334
  -1,396
  -1,462
  -1,531
  -1,604
  -1,680
  -1,761
  -1,845
  -1,935
  -2,029
  -2,127
  -2,231
  -2,340
  -2,455
  -2,575
  -2,701
  -2,834
  -2,974
  -3,121
  -3,275
  -3,438
  -3,608
Free cash flow, $m
  1,429
  1,432
  1,441
  1,454
  1,471
  1,491
  1,516
  1,544
  1,575
  1,610
  1,429
  1,471
  1,516
  1,565
  1,618
  1,675
  1,735
  1,799
  1,868
  1,941
  2,018
  2,100
  2,186
  2,277
  2,374
  2,476
  2,583
  2,696
  2,816
  2,942
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  142
  162
  186
  208
  231
  253
  276
  299
  322
  345
  370
  394
  420
  446
  473
  502
  531
  562
  593
  627
  661
  697
  735
  774
  816
  859
  904
  951
  1,001
  1,052
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  142
  162
  186
  208
  231
  253
  276
  299
  322
  345
  370
  394
  420
  446
  473
  502
  531
  562
  593
  627
  661
  697
  735
  774
  816
  859
  904
  951
  1,001
  1,052
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,570
  1,594
  1,626
  1,662
  1,702
  1,745
  1,792
  1,843
  1,897
  1,956
  1,798
  1,865
  1,936
  2,011
  2,092
  2,176
  2,266
  2,361
  2,461
  2,567
  2,679
  2,797
  2,921
  3,052
  3,189
  3,334
  3,487
  3,648
  3,817
  3,994
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -113
  -133
  -153
  -171
  -190
  -208
  -227
  -245
  -264
  -284
  -304
  -324
  -345
  -367
  -389
  -412
  -436
  -461
  -488
  -515
  -543
  -573
  -604
  -636
  -670
  -705
  -742
  -781
  -822
  -865
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  109
  111
  114
  117
  120
  124
  128
  132
  137
  142
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  205
  215
  224
  235
  246
  257
  270
  282
  296
  310
  325
  341
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,457
  1,461
  1,474
  1,491
  1,512
  1,537
  1,565
  1,597
  1,633
  1,672
  1,494
  1,541
  1,591
  1,645
  1,703
  1,764
  1,830
  1,900
  1,974
  2,053
  2,136
  2,224
  2,317
  2,416
  2,519
  2,629
  2,745
  2,866
  2,995
  3,130
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,397
  1,337
  1,283
  1,228
  1,172
  1,115
  1,057
  998
  938
  877
  710
  658
  605
  552
  500
  448
  398
  350
  304
  261
  221
  185
  152
  123
  98
  77
  59
  44
  33
  24
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

CA, Inc. (CA) is engaged in providing software solutions enabling customers to plan, develop, manage and secure applications and enterprise environments across distributed, cloud, mobile and mainframe platforms. The Company operates through three business segments: Mainframe Solutions, Enterprise Solutions and Services. Its Mainframe Solutions and Enterprise Solutions segments comprise the Company's software business organized by the nature of its software offerings and the platform on which the products operate. The Services segment comprises product implementation, consulting, customer education, customer training and application management services. CA's Mainframe Solutions segment consists of various product offerings, including Application Development, Databases and Database Management, Security & Compliance, and Systems and Operations Management. The Enterprise Solutions segment consists of various product offerings, including Agile Management, DevOps and Security.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CA (CA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.5
Price to Sales 4.5
Price to Book 3.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 154
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 48.7%
Total Debt to Equity 49.1%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Return On Total Capital 9.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Return On Equity 14%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 85.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 85.5%
EBITDA Margin 36.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.3%
Operating Margin 28.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 26.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.6%
Net Profit Margin 19.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
Effective Tax Rate 27.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.1%
Payout Ratio 55.2%

CA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4036 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CA. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of CA. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CA, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CA.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for CA.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CA. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CA stock is equal to 2.7%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CA are equal to 192.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CA operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CA is equal to -2.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $5689 million for CA - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 414 million for CA is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CA at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $18.2 billion.

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