Intrinsic value of CACI International Cl A - CACI

Previous Close

$138.85

  Intrinsic Value

$167.21

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+20%

Previous close

$138.85

 
Intrinsic value

$167.21

 
Up/down potential

+20%

 
Rating

buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CACI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  16.32
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  4,355
  4,442
  4,544
  4,661
  4,792
  4,937
  5,097
  5,270
  5,458
  5,661
  5,878
  6,110
  6,358
  6,622
  6,903
  7,201
  7,516
  7,850
  8,204
  8,577
  8,971
  9,387
  9,825
  10,288
  10,775
  11,288
  11,828
  12,396
  12,994
  13,624
  14,286
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,122
  4,210
  4,312
  4,426
  4,552
  4,691
  4,842
  5,006
  5,182
  5,371
  5,315
  5,531
  5,760
  6,004
  6,264
  6,538
  6,829
  7,136
  7,460
  7,803
  8,165
  8,546
  8,948
  9,372
  9,818
  10,288
  10,783
  11,303
  11,850
  12,426
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,057
  4,122
  4,210
  4,312
  4,426
  4,552
  4,691
  4,842
  5,006
  5,182
  5,371
  5,315
  5,531
  5,760
  6,004
  6,264
  6,538
  6,829
  7,136
  7,460
  7,803
  8,165
  8,546
  8,948
  9,372
  9,818
  10,288
  10,783
  11,303
  11,850
  12,426
Operating income, $m
  297
  321
  334
  349
  366
  385
  406
  428
  453
  479
  507
  795
  828
  862
  899
  937
  978
  1,022
  1,068
  1,116
  1,168
  1,222
  1,279
  1,339
  1,403
  1,469
  1,540
  1,614
  1,692
  1,773
  1,860
EBITDA, $m
  369
  590
  603
  619
  636
  656
  677
  700
  725
  752
  780
  811
  844
  879
  917
  956
  998
  1,042
  1,089
  1,139
  1,191
  1,246
  1,305
  1,366
  1,431
  1,499
  1,570
  1,646
  1,725
  1,809
  1,897
Interest expense (income), $m
  45
  41
  43
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
  60
  63
  67
  70
  75
  79
  84
  88
  94
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  156
  165
  175
  185
  195
Earnings before tax, $m
  249
  279
  291
  305
  320
  337
  355
  375
  396
  420
  445
  729
  757
  788
  820
  854
  890
  928
  969
  1,011
  1,056
  1,104
  1,154
  1,207
  1,263
  1,322
  1,383
  1,448
  1,517
  1,589
  1,665
Tax expense, $m
  85
  75
  79
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  120
  197
  204
  213
  221
  231
  240
  251
  262
  273
  285
  298
  312
  326
  341
  357
  374
  391
  410
  429
  449
Net income, $m
  164
  204
  213
  222
  233
  246
  259
  274
  289
  306
  325
  532
  553
  575
  598
  623
  650
  678
  707
  738
  771
  806
  843
  881
  922
  965
  1,010
  1,057
  1,107
  1,160
  1,215

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  66
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,911
  3,921
  4,011
  4,114
  4,230
  4,358
  4,499
  4,652
  4,818
  4,996
  5,188
  5,393
  5,612
  5,845
  6,093
  6,356
  6,634
  6,929
  7,241
  7,570
  7,918
  8,285
  8,672
  9,080
  9,510
  9,963
  10,439
  10,941
  11,469
  12,024
  12,609
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,845
  3,921
  4,011
  4,114
  4,230
  4,358
  4,499
  4,652
  4,818
  4,996
  5,188
  5,393
  5,612
  5,845
  6,093
  6,356
  6,634
  6,929
  7,241
  7,570
  7,918
  8,285
  8,672
  9,080
  9,510
  9,963
  10,439
  10,941
  11,469
  12,024
  12,609
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
Average production assets, $m
  342
  346
  354
  364
  374
  385
  398
  411
  426
  442
  458
  477
  496
  517
  538
  562
  586
  612
  640
  669
  700
  732
  766
  802
  840
  880
  923
  967
  1,014
  1,063
  1,114
Working capital, $m
  353
  346
  354
  364
  374
  385
  398
  411
  426
  442
  458
  477
  496
  517
  538
  562
  586
  612
  640
  669
  700
  732
  766
  802
  840
  880
  923
  967
  1,014
  1,063
  1,114
Total debt, $m
  1,232
  1,220
  1,269
  1,324
  1,386
  1,455
  1,531
  1,613
  1,702
  1,798
  1,901
  2,011
  2,129
  2,254
  2,387
  2,528
  2,678
  2,836
  3,003
  3,180
  3,367
  3,564
  3,772
  3,991
  4,222
  4,465
  4,721
  4,990
  5,274
  5,572
  5,886
Total liabilities, $m
  2,118
  2,105
  2,154
  2,209
  2,271
  2,340
  2,416
  2,498
  2,587
  2,683
  2,786
  2,896
  3,014
  3,139
  3,272
  3,413
  3,563
  3,721
  3,888
  4,065
  4,252
  4,449
  4,657
  4,876
  5,107
  5,350
  5,606
  5,875
  6,159
  6,457
  6,771
Total equity, $m
  1,794
  1,815
  1,857
  1,905
  1,958
  2,018
  2,083
  2,154
  2,231
  2,313
  2,402
  2,497
  2,598
  2,706
  2,821
  2,943
  3,072
  3,208
  3,352
  3,505
  3,666
  3,836
  4,015
  4,204
  4,403
  4,613
  4,833
  5,066
  5,310
  5,567
  5,838
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,912
  3,920
  4,011
  4,114
  4,229
  4,358
  4,499
  4,652
  4,818
  4,996
  5,188
  5,393
  5,612
  5,845
  6,093
  6,356
  6,635
  6,929
  7,240
  7,570
  7,918
  8,285
  8,672
  9,080
  9,510
  9,963
  10,439
  10,941
  11,469
  12,024
  12,609
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.687
  0.670
  0.680
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.750
  0.760
  0.780
  0.790
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  1.000
  1.010
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.449
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463
  0.463

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  164
  204
  213
  222
  233
  246
  259
  274
  289
  306
  325
  532
  553
  575
  598
  623
  650
  678
  707
  738
  771
  806
  843
  881
  922
  965
  1,010
  1,057
  1,107
  1,160
  1,215
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  72
  269
  270
  270
  270
  271
  271
  271
  272
  272
  273
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
Funds from operations, $m
  286
  473
  482
  492
  504
  516
  530
  545
  561
  579
  597
  548
  569
  592
  616
  642
  669
  698
  728
  761
  795
  830
  868
  908
  950
  994
  1,041
  1,090
  1,141
  1,195
  1,252
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
Cash from operations, $m
  281
  466
  474
  483
  493
  505
  518
  531
  547
  563
  581
  530
  550
  572
  594
  619
  645
  672
  701
  731
  764
  798
  834
  872
  912
  954
  998
  1,045
  1,094
  1,146
  1,201
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
New CAPEX, $m
  -43
  -5
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -25
  -16
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
Free cash flow, $m
  256
  450
  455
  462
  471
  481
  492
  505
  518
  533
  549
  496
  515
  534
  555
  578
  601
  626
  653
  681
  711
  742
  775
  810
  847
  886
  927
  970
  1,016
  1,063
  1,114
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -229
  42
  48
  55
  62
  69
  76
  82
  89
  96
  103
  110
  118
  125
  133
  141
  150
  158
  167
  177
  187
  197
  208
  219
  231
  243
  256
  269
  284
  298
  314
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -240
  42
  48
  55
  62
  69
  76
  82
  89
  96
  103
  110
  118
  125
  133
  141
  150
  158
  167
  177
  187
  197
  208
  219
  231
  243
  256
  269
  284
  298
  314
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  16
  492
  503
  518
  533
  550
  568
  587
  607
  629
  652
  607
  632
  660
  688
  719
  751
  785
  820
  858
  898
  939
  983
  1,029
  1,078
  1,129
  1,183
  1,240
  1,299
  1,362
  1,427
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -187
  -33
  -42
  -48
  -54
  -59
  -65
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -108
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -137
  -144
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -189
  -199
  -210
  -221
  -232
  -244
  -257
  -270
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  471
  461
  470
  480
  491
  503
  516
  531
  546
  563
  512
  531
  552
  574
  597
  622
  648
  676
  705
  737
  769
  804
  841
  879
  920
  962
  1,007
  1,055
  1,104
  1,157
Discount rate, %
 
  6.80
  7.14
  7.50
  7.87
  8.27
  8.68
  9.11
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.21
  12.82
  13.46
  14.14
  14.84
  15.59
  16.37
  17.18
  18.04
  18.94
  19.89
  20.89
  21.93
  23.03
  24.18
  25.39
  26.66
  27.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  441
  402
  378
  354
  330
  305
  280
  255
  231
  207
  161
  142
  123
  106
  90
  75
  62
  50
  40
  31
  24
  18
  13
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

CACI International Inc is a simulation technology company. The Company provides information solutions and services. The Company operates through two segments: domestic operations and international operations. It serves clients in the United States federal government and commercial markets, primarily throughout North America and internationally on behalf of the United States customers, as well as in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. The Company's primary customers are agencies and departments of the United States government. The Company's domestic operations segment provides information solutions and services to its domestic customers in market areas, which include business systems; command and control; communications; cyber security, and enterprise information technology. Its international operations are conducted through its subsidiaries in Europe, including CACI Limited and CACI BV. Its international operations segment provides IT services, and data and software products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CACI International Cl A (CACI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.7
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 104.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 23.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 65.7%
Total Debt to Equity 68.7%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Total Capital 5.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Equity 9.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.3%
EBITDA Margin 8.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Operating Margin 6.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Net Profit Margin 3.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Effective Tax Rate 34.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36%
Payout Ratio 0%

CACI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CACI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4355 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CACI International Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of CACI International Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CACI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.8%, whose default value for CACI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CACI International Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CACI International Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CACI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CACI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for CACI International Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CACI International Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CACI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CACI are equal to 7.8%.

Life of production assets of 40.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CACI International Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CACI is equal to 7.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1794 million for CACI International Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.783 million for CACI International Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CACI International Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.4 billion.

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Financial statements of CACI
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