Intrinsic value of CACI International, Inc. - CACI

Previous Close

$205.64

  Intrinsic Value

$422.78

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+106%

Previous close

$205.64

 
Intrinsic value

$422.78

 
Up/down potential

+106%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CACI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.60
  8.24
  7.92
  7.62
  7.36
  7.13
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.39
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.82
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
Revenue, $m
  4,852
  5,252
  5,668
  6,100
  6,549
  7,016
  7,501
  8,005
  8,529
  9,075
  9,642
  10,233
  10,849
  11,491
  12,160
  12,858
  13,587
  14,348
  15,143
  15,973
  16,842
  17,750
  18,701
  19,695
  20,737
  21,827
  22,969
  24,166
  25,420
  26,734
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,964
  3,185
  3,414
  3,653
  3,901
  4,158
  4,426
  4,704
  4,994
  5,295
  5,322
  5,648
  5,988
  6,342
  6,711
  7,097
  7,499
  7,919
  8,358
  8,816
  9,295
  9,797
  10,321
  10,870
  11,445
  12,047
  12,677
  13,338
  14,030
  14,755
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  1,437
  1,469
  1,501
  1,534
  1,568
  1,602
  1,637
  1,673
  1,710
  1,748
  1,786
  1,826
  1,866
  1,907
  1,949
  1,992
  2,035
  2,080
  2,126
  2,173
  2,221
  2,269
  2,319
  2,370
  2,422
  2,476
  2,530
  2,586
  2,643
  2,701
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,401
  4,654
  4,915
  5,187
  5,469
  5,760
  6,063
  6,377
  6,704
  7,043
  7,108
  7,474
  7,854
  8,249
  8,660
  9,089
  9,534
  9,999
  10,484
  10,989
  11,516
  12,066
  12,640
  13,240
  13,867
  14,523
  15,207
  15,924
  16,673
  17,456
Operating income, $m
  451
  598
  752
  913
  1,081
  1,255
  1,437
  1,627
  1,825
  2,032
  2,534
  2,760
  2,995
  3,242
  3,500
  3,770
  4,053
  4,349
  4,659
  4,985
  5,326
  5,684
  6,060
  6,455
  6,869
  7,305
  7,762
  8,242
  8,747
  9,278
EBITDA, $m
  792
  944
  1,103
  1,268
  1,441
  1,621
  1,808
  2,004
  2,208
  2,421
  2,643
  2,875
  3,118
  3,372
  3,637
  3,915
  4,206
  4,511
  4,830
  5,165
  5,516
  5,885
  6,271
  6,677
  7,104
  7,551
  8,021
  8,515
  9,034
  9,580
Interest expense (income), $m
  45
  57
  66
  76
  85
  95
  106
  117
  128
  140
  152
  165
  178
  192
  206
  221
  237
  253
  270
  288
  306
  325
  346
  367
  389
  412
  436
  462
  488
  516
  545
Earnings before tax, $m
  394
  532
  677
  828
  985
  1,149
  1,321
  1,499
  1,685
  1,880
  2,370
  2,582
  2,804
  3,036
  3,279
  3,533
  3,800
  4,079
  4,372
  4,679
  5,001
  5,339
  5,693
  6,066
  6,457
  6,868
  7,300
  7,754
  8,231
  8,732
Tax expense, $m
  106
  144
  183
  223
  266
  310
  357
  405
  455
  508
  640
  697
  757
  820
  885
  954
  1,026
  1,101
  1,180
  1,263
  1,350
  1,441
  1,537
  1,638
  1,743
  1,854
  1,971
  2,094
  2,222
  2,358
Net income, $m
  287
  388
  494
  604
  719
  839
  964
  1,094
  1,230
  1,372
  1,730
  1,885
  2,047
  2,216
  2,394
  2,579
  2,774
  2,978
  3,191
  3,415
  3,650
  3,897
  4,156
  4,428
  4,714
  5,014
  5,329
  5,660
  6,009
  6,375

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,379
  4,740
  5,115
  5,505
  5,911
  6,332
  6,770
  7,225
  7,698
  8,190
  8,702
  9,236
  9,792
  10,371
  10,975
  11,605
  12,262
  12,949
  13,667
  14,416
  15,200
  16,020
  16,878
  17,776
  18,716
  19,700
  20,730
  21,810
  22,942
  24,128
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,379
  4,740
  5,115
  5,505
  5,911
  6,332
  6,770
  7,225
  7,698
  8,190
  8,702
  9,236
  9,792
  10,371
  10,975
  11,605
  12,262
  12,949
  13,667
  14,416
  15,200
  16,020
  16,878
  17,776
  18,716
  19,700
  20,730
  21,810
  22,942
  24,128
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
  1.108
Average production assets, $m
  1,645
  1,780
  1,921
  2,068
  2,220
  2,378
  2,543
  2,714
  2,891
  3,076
  3,269
  3,469
  3,678
  3,895
  4,122
  4,359
  4,606
  4,864
  5,133
  5,415
  5,709
  6,017
  6,340
  6,677
  7,030
  7,399
  7,787
  8,192
  8,617
  9,063
Working capital, $m
  403
  436
  470
  506
  544
  582
  623
  664
  708
  753
  800
  849
  900
  954
  1,009
  1,067
  1,128
  1,191
  1,257
  1,326
  1,398
  1,473
  1,552
  1,635
  1,721
  1,812
  1,906
  2,006
  2,110
  2,219
Total debt, $m
  1,228
  1,401
  1,580
  1,766
  1,960
  2,162
  2,371
  2,588
  2,814
  3,050
  3,295
  3,550
  3,815
  4,092
  4,381
  4,682
  4,996
  5,325
  5,667
  6,026
  6,401
  6,793
  7,203
  7,632
  8,081
  8,551
  9,044
  9,560
  10,101
  10,668
Total liabilities, $m
  2,093
  2,266
  2,445
  2,632
  2,825
  3,027
  3,236
  3,453
  3,680
  3,915
  4,160
  4,415
  4,680
  4,957
  5,246
  5,547
  5,861
  6,190
  6,533
  6,891
  7,266
  7,658
  8,068
  8,497
  8,946
  9,416
  9,909
  10,425
  10,966
  11,533
Total equity, $m
  2,286
  2,474
  2,670
  2,874
  3,085
  3,305
  3,534
  3,771
  4,018
  4,275
  4,543
  4,821
  5,111
  5,414
  5,729
  6,058
  6,401
  6,759
  7,134
  7,525
  7,935
  8,363
  8,810
  9,279
  9,769
  10,283
  10,821
  11,385
  11,976
  12,595
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,379
  4,740
  5,115
  5,506
  5,910
  6,332
  6,770
  7,224
  7,698
  8,190
  8,703
  9,236
  9,791
  10,371
  10,975
  11,605
  12,262
  12,949
  13,667
  14,416
  15,201
  16,021
  16,878
  17,776
  18,715
  19,699
  20,730
  21,810
  22,942
  24,128
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.540
  0.570
  0.590
  0.610
  0.640
  0.650
  0.670
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  287
  388
  494
  604
  719
  839
  964
  1,094
  1,230
  1,372
  1,730
  1,885
  2,047
  2,216
  2,394
  2,579
  2,774
  2,978
  3,191
  3,415
  3,650
  3,897
  4,156
  4,428
  4,714
  5,014
  5,329
  5,660
  6,009
  6,375
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  341
  346
  350
  355
  360
  366
  371
  377
  383
  389
  109
  116
  123
  130
  137
  145
  154
  162
  171
  180
  190
  201
  211
  223
  234
  247
  260
  273
  287
  302
Funds from operations, $m
  628
  734
  844
  959
  1,079
  1,205
  1,335
  1,471
  1,613
  1,761
  1,839
  2,000
  2,169
  2,346
  2,531
  2,725
  2,927
  3,140
  3,362
  3,596
  3,841
  4,098
  4,367
  4,651
  4,948
  5,260
  5,589
  5,933
  6,296
  6,677
Change in working capital, $m
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  86
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
Cash from operations, $m
  597
  701
  810
  924
  1,042
  1,166
  1,295
  1,429
  1,570
  1,716
  1,792
  1,951
  2,118
  2,293
  2,475
  2,667
  2,867
  3,077
  3,296
  3,527
  3,769
  4,022
  4,289
  4,568
  4,862
  5,170
  5,494
  5,834
  6,192
  6,568
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -103
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -145
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -190
  -201
  -211
  -223
  -234
  -247
  -260
  -273
  -287
New CAPEX, $m
  -130
  -136
  -141
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -192
  -200
  -209
  -218
  -227
  -237
  -247
  -258
  -269
  -282
  -294
  -308
  -322
  -337
  -353
  -370
  -387
  -406
  -425
  -445
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -181
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -221
  -232
  -243
  -256
  -268
  -281
  -295
  -309
  -325
  -341
  -357
  -374
  -392
  -412
  -431
  -453
  -474
  -498
  -523
  -548
  -576
  -604
  -634
  -666
  -698
  -732
Free cash flow, $m
  416
  511
  610
  713
  821
  934
  1,051
  1,174
  1,301
  1,435
  1,497
  1,642
  1,794
  1,953
  2,119
  2,293
  2,474
  2,665
  2,865
  3,074
  3,294
  3,524
  3,766
  4,020
  4,286
  4,566
  4,860
  5,169
  5,494
  5,835
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  166
  172
  179
  186
  194
  201
  209
  218
  226
  235
  245
  255
  266
  277
  289
  301
  314
  328
  343
  358
  375
  392
  410
  429
  449
  470
  493
  516
  541
  567
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  166
  172
  179
  186
  194
  201
  209
  218
  226
  235
  245
  255
  266
  277
  289
  301
  314
  328
  343
  358
  375
  392
  410
  429
  449
  470
  493
  516
  541
  567
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  582
  683
  789
  900
  1,015
  1,135
  1,260
  1,391
  1,528
  1,670
  1,742
  1,897
  2,060
  2,230
  2,407
  2,594
  2,789
  2,993
  3,208
  3,433
  3,668
  3,916
  4,176
  4,449
  4,735
  5,036
  5,353
  5,685
  6,035
  6,402
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -179
  -188
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -220
  -228
  -238
  -247
  -257
  -267
  -278
  -290
  -302
  -315
  -329
  -343
  -358
  -374
  -391
  -409
  -428
  -448
  -469
  -491
  -514
  -538
  -564
  -591
  -619
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  403
  495
  593
  696
  803
  915
  1,032
  1,154
  1,281
  1,413
  1,474
  1,619
  1,769
  1,927
  2,092
  2,265
  2,446
  2,635
  2,833
  3,041
  3,259
  3,488
  3,728
  3,980
  4,245
  4,523
  4,815
  5,121
  5,444
  5,783
Discount rate, %
  5.50
  5.78
  6.06
  6.37
  6.69
  7.02
  7.37
  7.74
  8.13
  8.53
  8.96
  9.41
  9.88
  10.37
  10.89
  11.43
  12.01
  12.61
  13.24
  13.90
  14.59
  15.32
  16.09
  16.89
  17.74
  18.62
  19.56
  20.53
  21.56
  22.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  382
  442
  497
  544
  581
  609
  627
  635
  634
  623
  574
  550
  520
  484
  444
  401
  356
  311
  267
  225
  187
  152
  121
  94
  72
  53
  39
  27
  19
  13
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

CACI International Inc is a simulation technology company. The Company provides information solutions and services. The Company operates through two segments: domestic operations and international operations. It serves clients in the United States federal government and commercial markets, primarily throughout North America and internationally on behalf of the United States customers, as well as in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. The Company's primary customers are agencies and departments of the United States government. The Company's domestic operations segment provides information solutions and services to its domestic customers in market areas, which include business systems; command and control; communications; cyber security, and enterprise information technology. Its international operations are conducted through its subsidiaries in Europe, including CACI Limited and CACI BV. Its international operations segment provides IT services, and data and software products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CACI International, Inc. (CACI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 30.7
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 104.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 23.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 65.7%
Total Debt to Equity 68.7%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Total Capital 5.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Equity 9.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.3%
EBITDA Margin 8.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Operating Margin 6.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Net Profit Margin 3.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Effective Tax Rate 34.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36%
Payout Ratio 0%

CACI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CACI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4468 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CACI International, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of CACI International, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CACI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.5%, whose default value for CACI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CACI International, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CACI International, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CACI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 61.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1406 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CACI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for CACI International, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CACI International, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CACI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CACI are equal to 33.9%.

Life of production assets of 40.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CACI International, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CACI is equal to 8.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2106.752 million for CACI International, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.842 million for CACI International, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CACI International, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.1 billion.

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