Intrinsic value of CACI International Cl A - CACI

Previous Close

$180.58

  Intrinsic Value

$163.01

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-10%

Previous close

$180.58

 
Intrinsic value

$163.01

 
Up/down potential

-10%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of CACI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.50
  3.65
  3.78
  3.91
  4.02
  4.11
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.48
  4.53
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
Revenue, $m
  4,507
  4,672
  4,848
  5,038
  5,240
  5,456
  5,685
  5,928
  6,187
  6,460
  6,749
  7,055
  7,378
  7,718
  8,078
  8,457
  8,856
  9,277
  9,720
  10,186
  10,677
  11,193
  11,736
  12,307
  12,908
  13,540
  14,203
  14,901
  15,635
  16,405
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,177
  4,319
  4,472
  4,636
  4,811
  4,997
  5,195
  5,406
  5,629
  5,865
  5,834
  6,098
  6,377
  6,672
  6,983
  7,310
  7,655
  8,019
  8,402
  8,805
  9,229
  9,675
  10,145
  10,639
  11,158
  11,704
  12,278
  12,881
  13,515
  14,181
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,177
  4,319
  4,472
  4,636
  4,811
  4,997
  5,195
  5,406
  5,629
  5,865
  5,834
  6,098
  6,377
  6,672
  6,983
  7,310
  7,655
  8,019
  8,402
  8,805
  9,229
  9,675
  10,145
  10,639
  11,158
  11,704
  12,278
  12,881
  13,515
  14,181
Operating income, $m
  330
  352
  376
  402
  429
  458
  490
  523
  558
  595
  915
  957
  1,000
  1,047
  1,095
  1,147
  1,201
  1,258
  1,318
  1,381
  1,448
  1,518
  1,591
  1,669
  1,750
  1,836
  1,926
  2,021
  2,120
  2,224
EBITDA, $m
  663
  687
  713
  741
  771
  803
  836
  872
  910
  950
  993
  1,038
  1,085
  1,136
  1,188
  1,244
  1,303
  1,365
  1,430
  1,499
  1,571
  1,647
  1,727
  1,811
  1,899
  1,992
  2,090
  2,192
  2,300
  2,414
Interest expense (income), $m
  45
  67
  70
  75
  79
  84
  90
  95
  101
  108
  114
  122
  129
  137
  146
  155
  164
  174
  184
  195
  207
  219
  232
  246
  260
  275
  291
  307
  325
  343
  362
Earnings before tax, $m
  263
  282
  301
  322
  345
  369
  394
  421
  450
  480
  794
  827
  863
  901
  941
  983
  1,027
  1,073
  1,122
  1,174
  1,228
  1,286
  1,346
  1,409
  1,475
  1,545
  1,619
  1,696
  1,777
  1,862
Tax expense, $m
  71
  76
  81
  87
  93
  100
  106
  114
  121
  130
  214
  223
  233
  243
  254
  265
  277
  290
  303
  317
  332
  347
  363
  380
  398
  417
  437
  458
  480
  503
Net income, $m
  192
  206
  220
  235
  252
  269
  288
  308
  328
  351
  579
  604
  630
  658
  687
  717
  750
  784
  819
  857
  897
  938
  982
  1,028
  1,077
  1,128
  1,182
  1,238
  1,297
  1,359

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,046
  4,193
  4,352
  4,522
  4,704
  4,897
  5,103
  5,322
  5,553
  5,799
  6,058
  6,333
  6,623
  6,929
  7,251
  7,591
  7,950
  8,327
  8,725
  9,144
  9,584
  10,048
  10,535
  11,048
  11,587
  12,154
  12,750
  13,376
  14,035
  14,726
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,046
  4,193
  4,352
  4,522
  4,704
  4,897
  5,103
  5,322
  5,553
  5,799
  6,058
  6,333
  6,623
  6,929
  7,251
  7,591
  7,950
  8,327
  8,725
  9,144
  9,584
  10,048
  10,535
  11,048
  11,587
  12,154
  12,750
  13,376
  14,035
  14,726
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
Average production assets, $m
  1,559
  1,616
  1,678
  1,743
  1,813
  1,888
  1,967
  2,051
  2,141
  2,235
  2,335
  2,441
  2,553
  2,671
  2,795
  2,926
  3,064
  3,210
  3,363
  3,524
  3,694
  3,873
  4,061
  4,258
  4,466
  4,685
  4,914
  5,156
  5,410
  5,676
Working capital, $m
  352
  364
  378
  393
  409
  426
  443
  462
  483
  504
  526
  550
  575
  602
  630
  660
  691
  724
  758
  795
  833
  873
  915
  960
  1,007
  1,056
  1,108
  1,162
  1,219
  1,280
Total debt, $m
  1,303
  1,383
  1,469
  1,561
  1,659
  1,764
  1,875
  1,993
  2,119
  2,251
  2,392
  2,540
  2,697
  2,863
  3,037
  3,221
  3,415
  3,619
  3,834
  4,061
  4,299
  4,550
  4,814
  5,091
  5,383
  5,690
  6,012
  6,351
  6,707
  7,081
Total liabilities, $m
  2,189
  2,269
  2,355
  2,447
  2,545
  2,649
  2,761
  2,879
  3,004
  3,137
  3,278
  3,426
  3,583
  3,748
  3,923
  4,107
  4,301
  4,505
  4,720
  4,947
  5,185
  5,436
  5,700
  5,977
  6,269
  6,575
  6,898
  7,237
  7,593
  7,967
Total equity, $m
  1,857
  1,925
  1,998
  2,076
  2,159
  2,248
  2,342
  2,443
  2,549
  2,662
  2,781
  2,907
  3,040
  3,180
  3,328
  3,484
  3,649
  3,822
  4,005
  4,197
  4,399
  4,612
  4,836
  5,071
  5,318
  5,579
  5,852
  6,140
  6,442
  6,759
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,046
  4,194
  4,353
  4,523
  4,704
  4,897
  5,103
  5,322
  5,553
  5,799
  6,059
  6,333
  6,623
  6,928
  7,251
  7,591
  7,950
  8,327
  8,725
  9,144
  9,584
  10,048
  10,536
  11,048
  11,587
  12,154
  12,750
  13,377
  14,035
  14,726
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.700
  0.720
  0.740
  0.750
  0.770
  0.780
  0.800
  0.820
  0.830
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  192
  206
  220
  235
  252
  269
  288
  308
  328
  351
  579
  604
  630
  658
  687
  717
  750
  784
  819
  857
  897
  938
  982
  1,028
  1,077
  1,128
  1,182
  1,238
  1,297
  1,359
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  333
  335
  337
  339
  342
  344
  347
  350
  353
  356
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  189
Funds from operations, $m
  525
  541
  557
  575
  594
  613
  635
  657
  681
  706
  657
  685
  715
  747
  780
  815
  852
  891
  932
  975
  1,020
  1,068
  1,118
  1,170
  1,226
  1,284
  1,345
  1,410
  1,478
  1,549
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
Cash from operations, $m
  514
  528
  543
  560
  578
  597
  617
  638
  661
  685
  635
  662
  690
  720
  752
  785
  821
  858
  897
  938
  982
  1,027
  1,075
  1,126
  1,179
  1,235
  1,294
  1,355
  1,420
  1,489
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
New CAPEX, $m
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -198
  -208
  -218
  -230
  -241
  -254
  -267
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -157
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -224
  -236
  -248
  -260
  -273
  -287
  -302
  -317
  -333
  -350
  -367
  -386
  -405
  -426
  -447
Free cash flow, $m
  409
  419
  428
  439
  450
  462
  475
  488
  503
  519
  460
  478
  497
  517
  538
  561
  585
  610
  637
  665
  694
  725
  758
  793
  829
  868
  908
  950
  995
  1,042
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  71
  80
  86
  92
  98
  105
  111
  118
  125
  133
  140
  148
  157
  165
  175
  184
  194
  204
  215
  226
  238
  251
  264
  277
  292
  307
  322
  339
  356
  374
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  71
  80
  86
  92
  98
  105
  111
  118
  125
  133
  140
  148
  157
  165
  175
  184
  194
  204
  215
  226
  238
  251
  264
  277
  292
  307
  322
  339
  356
  374
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  480
  499
  514
  531
  548
  566
  586
  607
  629
  652
  600
  626
  654
  683
  713
  745
  779
  814
  852
  891
  933
  976
  1,022
  1,070
  1,121
  1,174
  1,230
  1,289
  1,351
  1,416
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -165
  -173
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -260
  -274
  -288
  -302
  -318
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  417
  431
  441
  453
  465
  478
  491
  506
  522
  539
  481
  500
  521
  542
  565
  589
  614
  641
  669
  699
  730
  763
  798
  835
  873
  914
  957
  1,002
  1,049
  1,098
Discount rate, %
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.52
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.43
  17.25
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  392
  378
  359
  339
  318
  296
  274
  251
  229
  206
  159
  141
  124
  107
  92
  78
  64
  53
  42
  33
  26
  20
  15
  11
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

CACI International Inc is a simulation technology company. The Company provides information solutions and services. The Company operates through two segments: domestic operations and international operations. It serves clients in the United States federal government and commercial markets, primarily throughout North America and internationally on behalf of the United States customers, as well as in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. The Company's primary customers are agencies and departments of the United States government. The Company's domestic operations segment provides information solutions and services to its domestic customers in market areas, which include business systems; command and control; communications; cyber security, and enterprise information technology. Its international operations are conducted through its subsidiaries in Europe, including CACI Limited and CACI BV. Its international operations segment provides IT services, and data and software products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CACI International Cl A (CACI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.9
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 104.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 23.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 65.7%
Total Debt to Equity 68.7%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Total Capital 5.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Equity 9.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.3%
EBITDA Margin 8.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Operating Margin 6.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Net Profit Margin 3.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Effective Tax Rate 34.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36%
Payout Ratio 0%

CACI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CACI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4354.617 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CACI International Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of CACI International Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CACI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.5%, whose default value for CACI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CACI International Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CACI International Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CACI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CACI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for CACI International Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CACI International Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CACI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CACI are equal to 34.6%.

Life of production assets of 40.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CACI International Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CACI is equal to 7.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1793.721 million for CACI International Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.705 million for CACI International Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CACI International Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.5 billion.

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