Intrinsic value of CAI International - CAI

Previous Close

$37.26

  Intrinsic Value

$5.74

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-85%

Previous close

$37.26

 
Intrinsic value

$5.74

 
Up/down potential

-85%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CAI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.60
  17.60
  16.34
  15.21
  14.19
  13.27
  12.44
  11.70
  11.03
  10.42
  9.88
  9.39
  8.95
  8.56
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
  7.33
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
Revenue, $m
  294
  346
  402
  463
  529
  599
  674
  753
  836
  923
  1,014
  1,109
  1,209
  1,312
  1,420
  1,532
  1,648
  1,769
  1,894
  2,025
  2,161
  2,302
  2,449
  2,601
  2,760
  2,926
  3,099
  3,279
  3,467
  3,663
  3,868
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  251
  292
  336
  384
  435
  489
  545
  605
  668
  734
  802
  873
  948
  1,026
  1,107
  1,191
  1,278
  1,369
  1,463
  1,561
  1,663
  1,769
  1,880
  1,995
  2,114
  2,239
  2,369
  2,505
  2,647
  2,795
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  241
  251
  292
  336
  384
  435
  489
  545
  605
  668
  734
  802
  873
  948
  1,026
  1,107
  1,191
  1,278
  1,369
  1,463
  1,561
  1,663
  1,769
  1,880
  1,995
  2,114
  2,239
  2,369
  2,505
  2,647
  2,795
Operating income, $m
  53
  94
  110
  127
  145
  165
  185
  207
  230
  254
  280
  308
  335
  364
  394
  425
  457
  491
  526
  562
  599
  639
  679
  722
  766
  812
  860
  910
  962
  1,016
  1,073
EBITDA, $m
  159
  220
  256
  295
  337
  381
  429
  479
  532
  587
  645
  706
  769
  835
  904
  975
  1,049
  1,126
  1,206
  1,289
  1,375
  1,465
  1,558
  1,656
  1,757
  1,863
  1,973
  2,087
  2,207
  2,332
  2,462
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  50
  60
  70
  81
  94
  107
  120
  135
  150
  167
  183
  201
  219
  239
  258
  279
  301
  323
  346
  370
  396
  422
  449
  477
  507
  537
  569
  603
  637
  674
Earnings before tax, $m
  10
  44
  50
  57
  64
  71
  79
  87
  95
  104
  113
  124
  134
  145
  155
  166
  178
  190
  203
  215
  229
  243
  258
  273
  289
  305
  323
  341
  359
  379
  400
Tax expense, $m
  4
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
Net income, $m
  6
  32
  37
  41
  47
  52
  57
  63
  70
  76
  83
  91
  98
  106
  113
  122
  130
  139
  148
  157
  167
  177
  188
  199
  211
  223
  235
  249
  262
  277
  292

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  46
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,056
  2,368
  2,755
  3,174
  3,624
  4,105
  4,616
  5,156
  5,724
  6,321
  6,945
  7,598
  8,278
  8,987
  9,724
  10,490
  11,287
  12,115
  12,975
  13,869
  14,799
  15,765
  16,771
  17,817
  18,907
  20,043
  21,226
  22,460
  23,748
  25,092
  26,495
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,010
  2,368
  2,755
  3,174
  3,624
  4,105
  4,616
  5,156
  5,724
  6,321
  6,945
  7,598
  8,278
  8,987
  9,724
  10,490
  11,287
  12,115
  12,975
  13,869
  14,799
  15,765
  16,771
  17,817
  18,907
  20,043
  21,226
  22,460
  23,748
  25,092
  26,495
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
Average production assets, $m
  1,784
  2,098
  2,441
  2,812
  3,211
  3,637
  4,089
  4,567
  5,071
  5,600
  6,153
  6,731
  7,334
  7,961
  8,614
  9,294
  9,999
  10,733
  11,495
  12,287
  13,110
  13,967
  14,858
  15,785
  16,751
  17,756
  18,805
  19,898
  21,039
  22,230
  23,473
Working capital, $m
  -29
  25
  29
  33
  38
  43
  48
  53
  59
  66
  72
  79
  86
  93
  101
  109
  117
  126
  134
  144
  153
  163
  174
  185
  196
  208
  220
  233
  246
  260
  275
Total debt, $m
  1,476
  1,706
  2,005
  2,328
  2,676
  3,047
  3,441
  3,858
  4,297
  4,758
  5,240
  5,743
  6,269
  6,816
  7,385
  7,976
  8,591
  9,231
  9,895
  10,585
  11,303
  12,049
  12,825
  13,633
  14,474
  15,351
  16,265
  17,217
  18,211
  19,249
  20,332
Total liabilities, $m
  1,598
  1,828
  2,127
  2,450
  2,798
  3,169
  3,563
  3,980
  4,419
  4,880
  5,362
  5,865
  6,391
  6,938
  7,507
  8,098
  8,713
  9,353
  10,017
  10,707
  11,425
  12,171
  12,947
  13,755
  14,596
  15,473
  16,387
  17,339
  18,333
  19,371
  20,454
Total equity, $m
  458
  540
  628
  724
  826
  936
  1,052
  1,175
  1,305
  1,441
  1,584
  1,732
  1,887
  2,049
  2,217
  2,392
  2,573
  2,762
  2,958
  3,162
  3,374
  3,594
  3,824
  4,062
  4,311
  4,570
  4,840
  5,121
  5,415
  5,721
  6,041
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,056
  2,368
  2,755
  3,174
  3,624
  4,105
  4,615
  5,155
  5,724
  6,321
  6,946
  7,597
  8,278
  8,987
  9,724
  10,490
  11,286
  12,115
  12,975
  13,869
  14,799
  15,765
  16,771
  17,817
  18,907
  20,043
  21,227
  22,460
  23,748
  25,092
  26,495
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.223
  3.160
  3.190
  3.220
  3.240
  3.260
  3.270
  3.280
  3.290
  3.300
  3.310
  3.320
  3.320
  3.330
  3.330
  3.330
  3.340
  3.340
  3.340
  3.350
  3.350
  3.350
  3.350
  3.360
  3.360
  3.360
  3.360
  3.360
  3.360
  3.360
  3.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.205
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  6
  32
  37
  41
  47
  52
  57
  63
  70
  76
  83
  91
  98
  106
  113
  122
  130
  139
  148
  157
  167
  177
  188
  199
  211
  223
  235
  249
  262
  277
  292
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  106
  126
  146
  168
  192
  217
  244
  272
  302
  333
  366
  398
  434
  471
  510
  550
  592
  635
  680
  727
  776
  826
  879
  934
  991
  1,051
  1,113
  1,177
  1,245
  1,315
  1,389
Funds from operations, $m
  127
  158
  183
  209
  238
  269
  301
  335
  371
  409
  448
  489
  532
  577
  623
  671
  722
  774
  828
  884
  943
  1,004
  1,067
  1,133
  1,202
  1,274
  1,348
  1,426
  1,507
  1,592
  1,681
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
Cash from operations, $m
  129
  154
  179
  205
  233
  264
  296
  330
  365
  403
  442
  482
  525
  569
  615
  663
  713
  765
  819
  875
  933
  994
  1,057
  1,122
  1,191
  1,262
  1,336
  1,413
  1,494
  1,578
  1,666
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -106
  -124
  -144
  -166
  -190
  -215
  -242
  -270
  -300
  -331
  -364
  -398
  -434
  -471
  -510
  -550
  -592
  -635
  -680
  -727
  -776
  -826
  -879
  -934
  -991
  -1,051
  -1,113
  -1,177
  -1,245
  -1,315
New CAPEX, $m
  -251
  -314
  -343
  -371
  -399
  -426
  -452
  -478
  -504
  -529
  -553
  -578
  -603
  -628
  -653
  -679
  -706
  -733
  -762
  -792
  -823
  -856
  -891
  -927
  -966
  -1,006
  -1,048
  -1,093
  -1,141
  -1,191
  -1,243
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -182
  -420
  -467
  -515
  -565
  -616
  -667
  -720
  -774
  -829
  -884
  -942
  -1,001
  -1,062
  -1,124
  -1,189
  -1,256
  -1,325
  -1,397
  -1,472
  -1,550
  -1,632
  -1,717
  -1,806
  -1,900
  -1,997
  -2,099
  -2,206
  -2,318
  -2,436
  -2,558
Free cash flow, $m
  -53
  -265
  -288
  -310
  -332
  -352
  -372
  -391
  -409
  -426
  -443
  -460
  -476
  -492
  -509
  -525
  -542
  -560
  -578
  -597
  -617
  -638
  -661
  -684
  -709
  -735
  -763
  -793
  -824
  -857
  -893
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  56
  276
  299
  323
  348
  371
  394
  417
  439
  461
  482
  504
  525
  547
  569
  592
  615
  639
  664
  690
  718
  746
  776
  808
  841
  877
  914
  953
  994
  1,038
  1,084
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -9
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  59
  60
  60
  60
  60
  58
  57
  56
  55
  53
  52
  50
  48
  47
  45
  43
  41
  39
  38
  36
  34
  33
  31
  30
  28
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  47
  326
  351
  377
  404
  429
  453
  477
  499
  521
  542
  562
  582
  603
  624
  645
  667
  689
  712
  737
  763
  789
  817
  847
  879
  913
  948
  986
  1,025
  1,068
  1,112
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -6
  61
  62
  67
  72
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  99
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  124
  129
  134
  140
  145
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  1
  -82
  -88
  -96
  -103
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -155
  -162
  -168
  -175
  -182
  -189
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -220
  -229
  -239
  -248
  -259
  -270
  -281
  -294
  -306
  -320
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -21
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
Discount rate, %
 
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.20
  13.86
  14.55
  15.28
  16.04
  16.84
  17.69
  18.57
  19.50
  20.47
  21.50
  22.57
  23.70
  24.88
  26.13
  27.44
  28.81
  30.25
  31.76
  33.35
  35.02
  36.77
  38.60
  40.53
  42.56
  44.69
  46.92
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -19
  -21
  -20
  -19
  -17
  -16
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  93.5
  88.2
  83.6
  79.6
  76.2
  73.3
  70.7
  68.5
  66.5
  64.8
  63.3
  62.0
  60.9
  59.8
  58.9
  58.1
  57.4
  56.8
  56.2
  55.7
  55.3
  54.9
  54.5
  54.2
  53.9
  53.6
  53.4
  53.2
  53.0
  52.8

CAI International, Inc. is a transportation finance and logistics company. The Company purchases equipment, primarily intermodal shipping containers and railcars, which it leases to its customers, and also manages equipment for third-party investors. The Company operates through three segments: container leasing, rail leasing and logistics. In operating the Company's fleet, it leases, re-leases and disposes equipment and contracts for the repair, repositioning and storage of equipment. The Company also provides domestic and international logistics services. The Company leases its container equipment to lessees under long-term leases, short-term leases and finance leases. The Company's long-term leases have terms of one year or more and specify the number of containers to be leased, the pick-up and drop-off locations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CAI International (CAI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 118.4
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -5.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -35.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 301.3%
Total Debt to Equity 322.3%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Return On Total Capital 0.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Return On Equity 1.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 82.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 92.8%
EBITDA Margin 39.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.2%
Operating Margin 18%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Net Profit Margin 2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Effective Tax Rate 40%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

CAI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CAI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $294 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CAI International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CAI International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CAI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.4%, whose default value for CAI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CAI International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CAI International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CAI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 72.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CAI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for CAI International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CAI International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CAI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CAI are equal to 606.8%.

Life of production assets of 16.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CAI International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CAI is equal to 7.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $458 million for CAI International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 19.247 million for CAI International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CAI International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ CAI International tops Street 3Q forecasts   [Oct-19-17 04:43PM  Associated Press]
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▶ CAI International beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-26-17 09:37PM  Associated Press]
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▶ CAI International beats 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-20-17 04:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for April 6th   [Apr-06-17 11:59AM  Zacks]
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Financial statements of CAI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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