Intrinsic value of CAI International - CAI

Previous Close

$23.28

  Intrinsic Value

$7.11

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-69%

Previous close

$23.28

 
Intrinsic value

$7.11

 
Up/down potential

-69%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CAI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  18.40
  17.06
  15.85
  14.77
  13.79
  12.91
  12.12
  11.41
  10.77
  10.19
  9.67
  9.21
  8.78
  8.41
  8.07
  7.76
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
Revenue, $m
  412
  482
  559
  641
  730
  824
  924
  1,029
  1,140
  1,256
  1,378
  1,505
  1,637
  1,774
  1,918
  2,066
  2,221
  2,382
  2,549
  2,722
  2,903
  3,090
  3,286
  3,489
  3,701
  3,921
  4,151
  4,391
  4,642
  4,903
Variable operating expenses, $m
  338
  395
  457
  524
  597
  673
  755
  840
  931
  1,025
  1,122
  1,225
  1,333
  1,445
  1,561
  1,682
  1,808
  1,939
  2,075
  2,216
  2,363
  2,516
  2,675
  2,840
  3,013
  3,192
  3,380
  3,575
  3,779
  3,992
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  338
  395
  457
  524
  597
  673
  755
  840
  931
  1,025
  1,122
  1,225
  1,333
  1,445
  1,561
  1,682
  1,808
  1,939
  2,075
  2,216
  2,363
  2,516
  2,675
  2,840
  3,013
  3,192
  3,380
  3,575
  3,779
  3,992
Operating income, $m
  74
  87
  101
  117
  133
  151
  169
  189
  210
  231
  256
  280
  304
  330
  356
  384
  413
  443
  474
  506
  540
  574
  611
  649
  688
  729
  772
  816
  863
  911
EBITDA, $m
  305
  357
  414
  475
  540
  610
  684
  762
  844
  930
  1,020
  1,114
  1,211
  1,313
  1,419
  1,529
  1,644
  1,763
  1,886
  2,015
  2,148
  2,287
  2,432
  2,582
  2,739
  2,902
  3,072
  3,250
  3,435
  3,629
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  92
  111
  131
  153
  177
  203
  230
  259
  290
  322
  356
  391
  428
  466
  506
  547
  590
  635
  682
  730
  781
  833
  887
  944
  1,003
  1,064
  1,128
  1,195
  1,265
  1,337
Earnings before tax, $m
  -18
  -23
  -30
  -36
  -44
  -52
  -61
  -70
  -80
  -91
  -99
  -111
  -123
  -136
  -149
  -163
  -178
  -193
  -208
  -224
  -241
  -258
  -277
  -295
  -315
  -335
  -357
  -379
  -402
  -426
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -18
  -23
  -30
  -36
  -44
  -52
  -61
  -70
  -80
  -91
  -99
  -111
  -123
  -136
  -149
  -163
  -178
  -193
  -208
  -224
  -241
  -258
  -277
  -295
  -315
  -335
  -357
  -379
  -402
  -426

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,881
  3,373
  3,908
  4,485
  5,103
  5,762
  6,461
  7,198
  7,973
  8,785
  9,635
  10,522
  11,446
  12,409
  13,409
  14,450
  15,531
  16,655
  17,823
  19,036
  20,298
  21,611
  22,976
  24,398
  25,879
  27,422
  29,030
  30,708
  32,459
  34,286
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,881
  3,373
  3,908
  4,485
  5,103
  5,762
  6,461
  7,198
  7,973
  8,785
  9,635
  10,522
  11,446
  12,409
  13,409
  14,450
  15,531
  16,655
  17,823
  19,036
  20,298
  21,611
  22,976
  24,398
  25,879
  27,422
  29,030
  30,708
  32,459
  34,286
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
Average production assets, $m
  2,283
  2,673
  3,097
  3,554
  4,044
  4,567
  5,120
  5,704
  6,319
  6,963
  7,636
  8,339
  9,071
  9,834
  10,627
  11,452
  12,309
  13,199
  14,124
  15,086
  16,086
  17,127
  18,209
  19,336
  20,509
  21,732
  23,007
  24,336
  25,724
  27,172
Working capital, $m
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -60
  -65
  -70
  -76
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -141
  -149
  -158
  -167
Total debt, $m
  2,049
  2,427
  2,837
  3,281
  3,756
  4,262
  4,798
  5,364
  5,960
  6,584
  7,236
  7,917
  8,627
  9,366
  10,135
  10,934
  11,764
  12,627
  13,524
  14,456
  15,425
  16,433
  17,482
  18,574
  19,711
  20,896
  22,132
  23,420
  24,765
  26,168
Total liabilities, $m
  2,213
  2,590
  3,001
  3,444
  3,919
  4,425
  4,962
  5,528
  6,123
  6,747
  7,400
  8,081
  8,791
  9,530
  10,298
  11,097
  11,928
  12,791
  13,688
  14,620
  15,589
  16,597
  17,646
  18,738
  19,875
  21,060
  22,295
  23,584
  24,928
  26,332
Total equity, $m
  668
  783
  907
  1,040
  1,184
  1,337
  1,499
  1,670
  1,850
  2,038
  2,235
  2,441
  2,656
  2,879
  3,111
  3,352
  3,603
  3,864
  4,135
  4,416
  4,709
  5,014
  5,331
  5,660
  6,004
  6,362
  6,735
  7,124
  7,530
  7,954
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,881
  3,373
  3,908
  4,484
  5,103
  5,762
  6,461
  7,198
  7,973
  8,785
  9,635
  10,522
  11,447
  12,409
  13,409
  14,449
  15,531
  16,655
  17,823
  19,036
  20,298
  21,611
  22,977
  24,398
  25,879
  27,422
  29,030
  30,708
  32,458
  34,286
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.070
  3.100
  3.130
  3.150
  3.170
  3.190
  3.200
  3.210
  3.220
  3.230
  3.240
  3.240
  3.250
  3.250
  3.260
  3.260
  3.260
  3.270
  3.270
  3.270
  3.280
  3.280
  3.280
  3.280
  3.280
  3.280
  3.290
  3.290
  3.290
  3.290
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -18
  -23
  -30
  -36
  -44
  -52
  -61
  -70
  -80
  -91
  -99
  -111
  -123
  -136
  -149
  -163
  -178
  -193
  -208
  -224
  -241
  -258
  -277
  -295
  -315
  -335
  -357
  -379
  -402
  -426
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  231
  270
  312
  358
  407
  459
  514
  573
  634
  699
  764
  834
  907
  983
  1,063
  1,145
  1,231
  1,320
  1,412
  1,509
  1,609
  1,713
  1,821
  1,934
  2,051
  2,173
  2,301
  2,434
  2,572
  2,717
Funds from operations, $m
  213
  246
  283
  321
  363
  407
  454
  503
  554
  608
  664
  723
  784
  847
  913
  982
  1,053
  1,127
  1,204
  1,284
  1,368
  1,454
  1,544
  1,638
  1,736
  1,838
  1,944
  2,055
  2,171
  2,291
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
Cash from operations, $m
  215
  249
  285
  324
  366
  410
  457
  506
  558
  612
  668
  727
  788
  852
  918
  987
  1,059
  1,133
  1,210
  1,290
  1,374
  1,461
  1,551
  1,645
  1,743
  1,845
  1,952
  2,063
  2,179
  2,300
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -193
  -228
  -267
  -310
  -355
  -404
  -457
  -512
  -570
  -632
  -696
  -764
  -834
  -907
  -983
  -1,063
  -1,145
  -1,231
  -1,320
  -1,412
  -1,509
  -1,609
  -1,713
  -1,821
  -1,934
  -2,051
  -2,173
  -2,301
  -2,434
  -2,572
New CAPEX, $m
  -353
  -390
  -424
  -457
  -490
  -522
  -554
  -584
  -614
  -644
  -673
  -703
  -733
  -763
  -793
  -825
  -857
  -890
  -925
  -962
  -1,000
  -1,040
  -1,082
  -1,127
  -1,173
  -1,223
  -1,275
  -1,330
  -1,387
  -1,449
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -546
  -618
  -691
  -767
  -845
  -926
  -1,011
  -1,096
  -1,184
  -1,276
  -1,369
  -1,467
  -1,567
  -1,670
  -1,776
  -1,888
  -2,002
  -2,121
  -2,245
  -2,374
  -2,509
  -2,649
  -2,795
  -2,948
  -3,107
  -3,274
  -3,448
  -3,631
  -3,821
  -4,021
Free cash flow, $m
  -330
  -369
  -406
  -443
  -480
  -516
  -553
  -590
  -627
  -664
  -701
  -739
  -778
  -818
  -858
  -900
  -944
  -989
  -1,035
  -1,084
  -1,135
  -1,188
  -1,244
  -1,303
  -1,364
  -1,428
  -1,496
  -1,567
  -1,642
  -1,721
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  346
  378
  411
  443
  475
  506
  536
  566
  595
  624
  653
  681
  710
  739
  769
  799
  830
  863
  897
  932
  969
  1,008
  1,049
  1,092
  1,137
  1,185
  1,235
  1,288
  1,345
  1,404
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  122
  137
  154
  170
  187
  205
  223
  241
  260
  279
  297
  317
  338
  359
  382
  405
  428
  453
  479
  506
  534
  563
  593
  625
  659
  693
  730
  768
  808
  850
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  468
  515
  565
  613
  662
  711
  759
  807
  855
  903
  950
  998
  1,048
  1,098
  1,151
  1,204
  1,258
  1,316
  1,376
  1,438
  1,503
  1,571
  1,642
  1,717
  1,796
  1,878
  1,965
  2,056
  2,153
  2,254
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  138
  146
  158
  171
  183
  195
  206
  217
  228
  239
  248
  259
  270
  281
  292
  303
  315
  328
  341
  354
  368
  383
  398
  415
  432
  450
  469
  489
  511
  533
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -122
  -137
  -154
  -170
  -187
  -205
  -223
  -241
  -260
  -279
  -297
  -317
  -338
  -359
  -382
  -405
  -428
  -453
  -479
  -506
  -534
  -563
  -593
  -625
  -659
  -693
  -730
  -768
  -808
  -850
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
Cash available for distribution, $m
  16
  8
  5
  0
  -5
  -10
  -17
  -24
  -32
  -40
  -49
  -58
  -68
  -79
  -90
  -101
  -113
  -126
  -138
  -152
  -166
  -180
  -195
  -211
  -227
  -243
  -261
  -279
  -297
  -317
Discount rate, %
  10.90
  11.45
  12.02
  12.62
  13.25
  13.91
  14.61
  15.34
  16.10
  16.91
  17.75
  18.64
  19.57
  20.55
  21.58
  22.66
  23.79
  24.98
  26.23
  27.54
  28.92
  30.37
  31.89
  33.48
  35.15
  36.91
  38.76
  40.69
  42.73
  44.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  14
  7
  3
  0
  -2
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  78.3
  62.1
  49.6
  40.1
  32.6
  26.7
  22.0
  18.3
  15.2
  12.8
  10.8
  9.1
  7.8
  6.6
  5.7
  4.9
  4.2
  3.6
  3.1
  2.7
  2.3
  2.0
  1.8
  1.5
  1.3
  1.2
  1.0
  0.9
  0.8
  0.7

CAI International, Inc. is a transportation finance and logistics company. The Company purchases equipment, primarily intermodal shipping containers and railcars, which it leases to its customers, and also manages equipment for third-party investors. The Company operates through three segments: container leasing, rail leasing and logistics. In operating the Company's fleet, it leases, re-leases and disposes equipment and contracts for the repair, repositioning and storage of equipment. The Company also provides domestic and international logistics services. The Company leases its container equipment to lessees under long-term leases, short-term leases and finance leases. The Company's long-term leases have terms of one year or more and specify the number of containers to be leased, the pick-up and drop-off locations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CAI International (CAI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 74
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -35.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 301.3%
Total Debt to Equity 322.3%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Return On Total Capital 0.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Return On Equity 1.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 82.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 92.8%
EBITDA Margin 39.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.2%
Operating Margin 18%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Net Profit Margin 2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Effective Tax Rate 40%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

CAI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CAI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $348 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CAI International. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of CAI International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CAI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.9%, whose default value for CAI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CAI International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CAI International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CAI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CAI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for CAI International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CAI International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CAI stock is equal to 0.6%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CAI are equal to 554.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CAI International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CAI is equal to -3.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $564 million for CAI International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 19 million for CAI International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CAI International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ CAI International: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is It Time To Buy CAI International Inc (NYSE:CAI)?   [Jun-25-18 02:34PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ CAI International: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-26-18 05:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Triton International Ltds Stock Is Plunging Today   [Feb-15-18 04:39PM  Motley Fool]
▶ CAI International beats 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-14-18 04:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 Stocks to Buy on Dow Record Highs   [Oct-24-17 02:56PM  Zacks]
▶ CAI International tops Street 3Q forecasts   [Oct-19-17 04:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Stock Picks for the Week of September 4th   [Sep-06-17 03:42PM  Zacks]
▶ 5 Strong Buy Stocks Outperforming Everything   [Aug-03-17 02:51PM  Zacks]
▶ Capgemini CEO Interview - H1 2017 Results (video)   [Jul-27-17 09:04AM  PR Newswire]
▶ CAI International beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-26-17 09:37PM  Associated Press]
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