Intrinsic value of CAI International - CAI

Previous Close

$22.19

  Intrinsic Value

$7.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-68%

Previous close

$22.19

 
Intrinsic value

$7.00

 
Up/down potential

-68%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CAI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  27.80
  25.52
  23.47
  21.62
  19.96
  18.46
  17.12
  15.91
  14.81
  13.83
  12.95
  12.15
  11.44
  10.80
  10.22
  9.69
  9.22
  8.80
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.49
  7.25
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.47
  6.33
  6.19
  6.07
Revenue, $m
  445
  559
  690
  839
  1,007
  1,193
  1,397
  1,619
  1,859
  2,116
  2,390
  2,680
  2,987
  3,309
  3,647
  4,001
  4,370
  4,755
  5,155
  5,572
  6,005
  6,455
  6,923
  7,409
  7,914
  8,439
  8,985
  9,554
  10,145
  10,762
Variable operating expenses, $m
  364
  456
  563
  684
  820
  971
  1,137
  1,317
  1,512
  1,721
  1,941
  2,177
  2,426
  2,688
  2,963
  3,250
  3,550
  3,862
  4,187
  4,526
  4,877
  5,243
  5,623
  6,018
  6,428
  6,855
  7,298
  7,760
  8,241
  8,741
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  364
  456
  563
  684
  820
  971
  1,137
  1,317
  1,512
  1,721
  1,941
  2,177
  2,426
  2,688
  2,963
  3,250
  3,550
  3,862
  4,187
  4,526
  4,877
  5,243
  5,623
  6,018
  6,428
  6,855
  7,298
  7,760
  8,241
  8,741
Operating income, $m
  81
  103
  127
  155
  187
  222
  260
  302
  347
  395
  449
  503
  561
  621
  685
  751
  820
  893
  968
  1,046
  1,127
  1,212
  1,300
  1,391
  1,486
  1,584
  1,687
  1,794
  1,905
  2,020
EBITDA, $m
  228
  286
  353
  430
  515
  611
  715
  829
  952
  1,083
  1,224
  1,372
  1,529
  1,695
  1,868
  2,049
  2,238
  2,435
  2,640
  2,853
  3,075
  3,305
  3,545
  3,794
  4,052
  4,321
  4,601
  4,892
  5,195
  5,510
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  92
  120
  153
  191
  235
  283
  337
  396
  461
  530
  605
  684
  769
  858
  951
  1,049
  1,152
  1,259
  1,370
  1,486
  1,607
  1,733
  1,863
  1,999
  2,140
  2,286
  2,439
  2,597
  2,762
  2,934
Earnings before tax, $m
  -11
  -18
  -26
  -36
  -48
  -62
  -77
  -95
  -114
  -135
  -156
  -181
  -208
  -236
  -266
  -298
  -331
  -366
  -402
  -440
  -480
  -521
  -564
  -608
  -654
  -702
  -752
  -803
  -857
  -913
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -11
  -18
  -26
  -36
  -48
  -62
  -77
  -95
  -114
  -135
  -156
  -181
  -208
  -236
  -266
  -298
  -331
  -366
  -402
  -440
  -480
  -521
  -564
  -608
  -654
  -702
  -752
  -803
  -857
  -913

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,114
  3,908
  4,825
  5,869
  7,040
  8,340
  9,767
  11,321
  12,998
  14,796
  16,712
  18,743
  20,888
  23,143
  25,507
  27,979
  30,560
  33,251
  36,051
  38,964
  41,992
  45,139
  48,410
  51,809
  55,341
  59,014
  62,834
  66,809
  70,947
  75,256
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,114
  3,908
  4,825
  5,869
  7,040
  8,340
  9,767
  11,321
  12,998
  14,796
  16,712
  18,743
  20,888
  23,143
  25,507
  27,979
  30,560
  33,251
  36,051
  38,964
  41,992
  45,139
  48,410
  51,809
  55,341
  59,014
  62,834
  66,809
  70,947
  75,256
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
  0.143
Average production assets, $m
  2,455
  3,081
  3,804
  4,627
  5,550
  6,575
  7,700
  8,925
  10,247
  11,665
  13,175
  14,777
  16,467
  18,245
  20,108
  22,058
  24,093
  26,213
  28,421
  30,718
  33,105
  35,586
  38,164
  40,844
  43,629
  46,524
  49,536
  52,669
  55,931
  59,329
Working capital, $m
  -83
  -104
  -128
  -156
  -187
  -222
  -260
  -301
  -346
  -394
  -445
  -499
  -556
  -616
  -678
  -744
  -813
  -884
  -959
  -1,036
  -1,117
  -1,201
  -1,288
  -1,378
  -1,472
  -1,570
  -1,671
  -1,777
  -1,887
  -2,002
Total debt, $m
  2,230
  2,840
  3,544
  4,346
  5,245
  6,244
  7,340
  8,533
  9,821
  11,202
  12,673
  14,234
  15,880
  17,612
  19,428
  21,327
  23,309
  25,375
  27,526
  29,763
  32,088
  34,506
  37,017
  39,627
  42,341
  45,161
  48,095
  51,148
  54,325
  57,635
Total liabilities, $m
  2,391
  3,002
  3,706
  4,507
  5,407
  6,405
  7,501
  8,694
  9,982
  11,363
  12,835
  14,395
  16,042
  17,773
  19,589
  21,488
  23,470
  25,536
  27,687
  29,924
  32,250
  34,667
  37,179
  39,789
  42,502
  45,323
  48,257
  51,309
  54,487
  57,796
Total equity, $m
  722
  907
  1,119
  1,362
  1,633
  1,935
  2,266
  2,626
  3,016
  3,433
  3,877
  4,348
  4,846
  5,369
  5,918
  6,491
  7,090
  7,714
  8,364
  9,040
  9,742
  10,472
  11,231
  12,020
  12,839
  13,691
  14,578
  15,500
  16,460
  17,459
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,113
  3,909
  4,825
  5,869
  7,040
  8,340
  9,767
  11,320
  12,998
  14,796
  16,712
  18,743
  20,888
  23,142
  25,507
  27,979
  30,560
  33,250
  36,051
  38,964
  41,992
  45,139
  48,410
  51,809
  55,341
  59,014
  62,835
  66,809
  70,947
  75,255
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.090
  3.130
  3.170
  3.190
  3.210
  3.230
  3.240
  3.250
  3.260
  3.260
  3.270
  3.270
  3.280
  3.280
  3.280
  3.290
  3.290
  3.290
  3.290
  3.290
  3.290
  3.290
  3.300
  3.300
  3.300
  3.300
  3.300
  3.300
  3.300
  3.300
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -11
  -18
  -26
  -36
  -48
  -62
  -77
  -95
  -114
  -135
  -156
  -181
  -208
  -236
  -266
  -298
  -331
  -366
  -402
  -440
  -480
  -521
  -564
  -608
  -654
  -702
  -752
  -803
  -857
  -913
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  147
  184
  226
  275
  329
  389
  455
  527
  605
  689
  775
  869
  969
  1,073
  1,183
  1,298
  1,417
  1,542
  1,672
  1,807
  1,947
  2,093
  2,245
  2,403
  2,566
  2,737
  2,914
  3,098
  3,290
  3,490
Funds from operations, $m
  136
  166
  200
  238
  281
  327
  378
  433
  491
  553
  619
  688
  761
  837
  917
  1,000
  1,086
  1,176
  1,269
  1,367
  1,468
  1,572
  1,681
  1,795
  1,912
  2,035
  2,162
  2,295
  2,433
  2,577
Change in working capital, $m
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
Cash from operations, $m
  154
  187
  224
  266
  312
  362
  416
  474
  536
  601
  670
  742
  818
  897
  979
  1,065
  1,155
  1,248
  1,344
  1,444
  1,548
  1,656
  1,768
  1,885
  2,006
  2,132
  2,264
  2,400
  2,543
  2,691
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -113
  -144
  -181
  -224
  -272
  -326
  -387
  -453
  -525
  -603
  -686
  -775
  -869
  -969
  -1,073
  -1,183
  -1,298
  -1,417
  -1,542
  -1,672
  -1,807
  -1,947
  -2,093
  -2,245
  -2,403
  -2,566
  -2,737
  -2,914
  -3,098
  -3,290
New CAPEX, $m
  -536
  -626
  -723
  -822
  -923
  -1,025
  -1,125
  -1,225
  -1,322
  -1,418
  -1,511
  -1,601
  -1,690
  -1,778
  -1,864
  -1,949
  -2,035
  -2,121
  -2,208
  -2,296
  -2,387
  -2,481
  -2,578
  -2,679
  -2,785
  -2,896
  -3,012
  -3,134
  -3,262
  -3,397
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -649
  -770
  -904
  -1,046
  -1,195
  -1,351
  -1,512
  -1,678
  -1,847
  -2,021
  -2,197
  -2,376
  -2,559
  -2,747
  -2,937
  -3,132
  -3,333
  -3,538
  -3,750
  -3,968
  -4,194
  -4,428
  -4,671
  -4,924
  -5,188
  -5,462
  -5,749
  -6,048
  -6,360
  -6,687
Free cash flow, $m
  -495
  -584
  -680
  -780
  -884
  -989
  -1,096
  -1,204
  -1,312
  -1,419
  -1,527
  -1,634
  -1,742
  -1,849
  -1,958
  -2,067
  -2,178
  -2,290
  -2,406
  -2,524
  -2,646
  -2,772
  -2,903
  -3,039
  -3,181
  -3,330
  -3,485
  -3,647
  -3,817
  -3,996
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  527
  610
  704
  801
  900
  998
  1,096
  1,193
  1,288
  1,381
  1,472
  1,560
  1,647
  1,732
  1,816
  1,899
  1,982
  2,066
  2,151
  2,237
  2,326
  2,417
  2,512
  2,610
  2,713
  2,821
  2,934
  3,053
  3,178
  3,309
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  169
  202
  239
  278
  320
  363
  408
  455
  503
  553
  601
  652
  705
  759
  815
  872
  930
  990
  1,052
  1,116
  1,182
  1,251
  1,322
  1,396
  1,474
  1,554
  1,638
  1,726
  1,817
  1,913
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  696
  812
  943
  1,079
  1,220
  1,361
  1,504
  1,648
  1,791
  1,934
  2,073
  2,212
  2,352
  2,491
  2,631
  2,771
  2,912
  3,056
  3,203
  3,353
  3,508
  3,668
  3,834
  4,006
  4,187
  4,375
  4,572
  4,779
  4,995
  5,222
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  201
  229
  263
  299
  336
  372
  409
  445
  480
  514
  545
  578
  610
  642
  673
  704
  735
  766
  797
  829
  862
  896
  931
  967
  1,005
  1,045
  1,087
  1,131
  1,178
  1,226
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -169
  -202
  -239
  -278
  -320
  -363
  -408
  -455
  -503
  -553
  -601
  -652
  -705
  -759
  -815
  -872
  -930
  -990
  -1,052
  -1,116
  -1,182
  -1,251
  -1,322
  -1,396
  -1,474
  -1,554
  -1,638
  -1,726
  -1,817
  -1,913
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  32
  26
  24
  21
  16
  9
  0
  -11
  -24
  -38
  -55
  -74
  -95
  -118
  -142
  -168
  -195
  -224
  -255
  -287
  -320
  -355
  -392
  -429
  -468
  -509
  -551
  -594
  -639
  -686
Discount rate, %
  10.80
  11.34
  11.91
  12.50
  13.13
  13.78
  14.47
  15.20
  15.96
  16.75
  17.59
  18.47
  19.40
  20.37
  21.38
  22.45
  23.58
  24.75
  25.99
  27.29
  28.66
  30.09
  31.59
  33.17
  34.83
  36.57
  38.40
  40.32
  42.34
  44.45
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  29
  21
  17
  13
  9
  4
  0
  -3
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  71.7
  52.4
  38.9
  29.3
  22.4
  17.3
  13.6
  10.7
  8.6
  6.9
  5.6
  4.6
  3.8
  3.1
  2.6
  2.2
  1.8
  1.6
  1.3
  1.1
  1.0
  0.8
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.3

CAI International, Inc. is a transportation finance and logistics company. The Company purchases equipment, primarily intermodal shipping containers and railcars, which it leases to its customers, and also manages equipment for third-party investors. The Company operates through three segments: container leasing, rail leasing and logistics. In operating the Company's fleet, it leases, re-leases and disposes equipment and contracts for the repair, repositioning and storage of equipment. The Company also provides domestic and international logistics services. The Company leases its container equipment to lessees under long-term leases, short-term leases and finance leases. The Company's long-term leases have terms of one year or more and specify the number of containers to be leased, the pick-up and drop-off locations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CAI International (CAI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 70.5
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -35.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 301.3%
Total Debt to Equity 322.3%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Return On Total Capital 0.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Return On Equity 1.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 82.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 92.8%
EBITDA Margin 39.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.2%
Operating Margin 18%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Net Profit Margin 2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Effective Tax Rate 40%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

CAI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CAI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $348.393 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CAI International. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of CAI International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CAI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 27.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.8%, whose default value for CAI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CAI International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CAI International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CAI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CAI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for CAI International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CAI International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CAI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CAI are equal to 551.3%.

Life of production assets of 17 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CAI International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CAI is equal to -18.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $563.845 million for CAI International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 19.306 million for CAI International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CAI International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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