Intrinsic value of CAI International - CAI

Previous Close

$29.98

  Intrinsic Value

$5.52

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-82%

Previous close

$29.98

 
Intrinsic value

$5.52

 
Up/down potential

-82%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CAI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.60
  15.40
  14.36
  13.42
  12.58
  11.82
  11.14
  10.53
  9.97
  9.48
  9.03
  8.63
  8.26
  7.94
  7.64
  7.38
  7.14
  6.93
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.14
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.75
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
Revenue, $m
  294
  339
  388
  440
  495
  554
  616
  681
  748
  819
  893
  970
  1,051
  1,134
  1,221
  1,311
  1,404
  1,502
  1,603
  1,708
  1,817
  1,931
  2,050
  2,173
  2,302
  2,436
  2,576
  2,722
  2,875
  3,034
  3,201
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  247
  282
  320
  360
  402
  447
  493
  542
  594
  647
  701
  759
  819
  882
  947
  1,015
  1,085
  1,158
  1,234
  1,313
  1,395
  1,481
  1,570
  1,663
  1,760
  1,861
  1,967
  2,077
  2,192
  2,313
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  241
  247
  282
  320
  360
  402
  447
  493
  542
  594
  647
  701
  759
  819
  882
  947
  1,015
  1,085
  1,158
  1,234
  1,313
  1,395
  1,481
  1,570
  1,663
  1,760
  1,861
  1,967
  2,077
  2,192
  2,313
Operating income, $m
  53
  93
  106
  120
  136
  152
  169
  187
  206
  226
  246
  269
  291
  315
  339
  364
  390
  417
  445
  474
  504
  536
  569
  603
  639
  676
  715
  755
  798
  842
  888
EBITDA, $m
  159
  216
  247
  280
  315
  353
  392
  433
  476
  522
  569
  618
  669
  722
  777
  834
  894
  956
  1,020
  1,087
  1,157
  1,229
  1,305
  1,383
  1,465
  1,551
  1,640
  1,733
  1,830
  1,931
  2,037
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  50
  59
  68
  77
  87
  98
  110
  122
  134
  147
  161
  175
  190
  206
  222
  238
  256
  274
  292
  312
  332
  353
  375
  398
  422
  447
  472
  500
  528
  557
Earnings before tax, $m
  10
  42
  48
  53
  59
  65
  71
  78
  84
  91
  99
  108
  116
  124
  133
  142
  151
  161
  171
  182
  192
  204
  216
  228
  241
  254
  268
  283
  298
  314
  331
Tax expense, $m
  4
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
Net income, $m
  6
  31
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  79
  85
  91
  97
  104
  110
  118
  125
  132
  140
  149
  157
  166
  176
  186
  196
  206
  218
  229
  241

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  46
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,056
  2,324
  2,658
  3,014
  3,393
  3,795
  4,217
  4,661
  5,126
  5,612
  6,119
  6,647
  7,196
  7,767
  8,361
  8,978
  9,619
  10,285
  10,978
  11,698
  12,448
  13,227
  14,039
  14,885
  15,766
  16,686
  17,644
  18,645
  19,690
  20,782
  21,923
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,010
  2,324
  2,658
  3,014
  3,393
  3,795
  4,217
  4,661
  5,126
  5,612
  6,119
  6,647
  7,196
  7,767
  8,361
  8,978
  9,619
  10,285
  10,978
  11,698
  12,448
  13,227
  14,039
  14,885
  15,766
  16,686
  17,644
  18,645
  19,690
  20,782
  21,923
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
Average production assets, $m
  1,784
  2,059
  2,354
  2,670
  3,006
  3,362
  3,736
  4,130
  4,542
  4,972
  5,421
  5,889
  6,375
  6,881
  7,407
  7,954
  8,522
  9,112
  9,726
  10,364
  11,028
  11,718
  12,438
  13,187
  13,968
  14,782
  15,632
  16,518
  17,444
  18,411
  19,422
Working capital, $m
  -29
  24
  28
  31
  35
  39
  44
  48
  53
  58
  63
  69
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  114
  121
  129
  137
  146
  154
  163
  173
  183
  193
  204
  215
  227
Total debt, $m
  1,476
  1,672
  1,930
  2,205
  2,498
  2,808
  3,134
  3,477
  3,836
  4,211
  4,602
  5,009
  5,433
  5,874
  6,333
  6,809
  7,304
  7,818
  8,353
  8,909
  9,488
  10,090
  10,716
  11,369
  12,050
  12,759
  13,499
  14,272
  15,079
  15,922
  16,802
Total liabilities, $m
  1,598
  1,794
  2,052
  2,327
  2,620
  2,930
  3,256
  3,599
  3,958
  4,333
  4,724
  5,131
  5,555
  5,996
  6,455
  6,931
  7,426
  7,940
  8,475
  9,031
  9,610
  10,212
  10,838
  11,491
  12,172
  12,881
  13,621
  14,394
  15,201
  16,044
  16,924
Total equity, $m
  458
  530
  606
  687
  774
  865
  962
  1,063
  1,169
  1,280
  1,395
  1,515
  1,641
  1,771
  1,906
  2,047
  2,193
  2,345
  2,503
  2,667
  2,838
  3,016
  3,201
  3,394
  3,595
  3,804
  4,023
  4,251
  4,489
  4,738
  4,998
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,056
  2,324
  2,658
  3,014
  3,394
  3,795
  4,218
  4,662
  5,127
  5,613
  6,119
  6,646
  7,196
  7,767
  8,361
  8,978
  9,619
  10,285
  10,978
  11,698
  12,448
  13,228
  14,039
  14,885
  15,767
  16,685
  17,644
  18,645
  19,690
  20,782
  21,922
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.223
  3.160
  3.180
  3.210
  3.230
  3.240
  3.260
  3.270
  3.280
  3.290
  3.300
  3.310
  3.310
  3.320
  3.320
  3.330
  3.330
  3.330
  3.340
  3.340
  3.340
  3.350
  3.350
  3.350
  3.350
  3.350
  3.360
  3.360
  3.360
  3.360
  3.360
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.205
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  6
  31
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  79
  85
  91
  97
  104
  110
  118
  125
  132
  140
  149
  157
  166
  176
  186
  196
  206
  218
  229
  241
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  106
  123
  141
  160
  179
  201
  223
  246
  270
  296
  322
  348
  377
  407
  438
  471
  504
  539
  575
  613
  653
  693
  736
  780
  827
  875
  925
  977
  1,032
  1,089
  1,149
Funds from operations, $m
  127
  154
  176
  198
  222
  248
  274
  303
  332
  363
  395
  427
  462
  498
  535
  574
  615
  657
  700
  746
  793
  842
  893
  947
  1,002
  1,060
  1,121
  1,184
  1,250
  1,319
  1,391
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Cash from operations, $m
  129
  151
  172
  195
  218
  244
  270
  298
  327
  358
  389
  422
  456
  492
  529
  568
  608
  650
  693
  738
  785
  834
  885
  938
  993
  1,051
  1,111
  1,173
  1,239
  1,307
  1,379
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -106
  -122
  -139
  -158
  -178
  -199
  -221
  -244
  -269
  -294
  -321
  -348
  -377
  -407
  -438
  -471
  -504
  -539
  -575
  -613
  -653
  -693
  -736
  -780
  -827
  -875
  -925
  -977
  -1,032
  -1,089
New CAPEX, $m
  -251
  -275
  -296
  -316
  -336
  -355
  -375
  -393
  -412
  -430
  -449
  -468
  -487
  -506
  -526
  -547
  -568
  -590
  -614
  -638
  -664
  -691
  -719
  -749
  -781
  -814
  -849
  -887
  -926
  -967
  -1,011
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -182
  -381
  -418
  -455
  -494
  -533
  -574
  -614
  -656
  -699
  -743
  -789
  -835
  -883
  -933
  -985
  -1,039
  -1,094
  -1,153
  -1,213
  -1,277
  -1,344
  -1,412
  -1,485
  -1,561
  -1,641
  -1,724
  -1,812
  -1,903
  -1,999
  -2,100
Free cash flow, $m
  -53
  -229
  -245
  -261
  -276
  -290
  -303
  -316
  -329
  -342
  -354
  -366
  -379
  -391
  -404
  -417
  -431
  -445
  -460
  -475
  -492
  -509
  -528
  -547
  -568
  -590
  -613
  -638
  -664
  -692
  -721
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  56
  242
  258
  275
  293
  310
  326
  343
  359
  375
  391
  407
  424
  441
  458
  476
  495
  514
  535
  556
  578
  602
  627
  653
  680
  710
  740
  773
  807
  843
  881
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -9
  41
  41
  43
  44
  44
  45
  45
  44
  44
  43
  41
  40
  39
  38
  37
  36
  34
  33
  32
  30
  29
  28
  26
  25
  24
  23
  22
  21
  20
  19
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  47
  283
  299
  318
  337
  354
  371
  388
  403
  419
  434
  448
  464
  480
  496
  513
  531
  548
  568
  588
  608
  631
  655
  679
  705
  734
  763
  795
  828
  863
  900
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -6
  54
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  82
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  143
  150
  156
  163
  170
  178
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  1
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -201
  -210
  -219
  -228
  -238
  -249
  -260
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -18
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
Discount rate, %
 
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.20
  13.86
  14.55
  15.28
  16.04
  16.84
  17.69
  18.57
  19.50
  20.47
  21.50
  22.57
  23.70
  24.88
  26.13
  27.44
  28.81
  30.25
  31.76
  33.35
  35.02
  36.77
  38.60
  40.53
  42.56
  44.69
  46.92
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -16
  -18
  -17
  -16
  -14
  -13
  -11
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  93.6
  88.4
  83.9
  80.0
  76.6
  73.7
  71.2
  69.0
  67.1
  65.4
  63.9
  62.7
  61.5
  60.5
  59.7
  58.9
  58.2
  57.6
  57.0
  56.5
  56.1
  55.7
  55.3
  55.0
  54.7
  54.5
  54.3
  54.1
  53.9
  53.7

CAI International, Inc. is a transportation finance and logistics company. The Company purchases equipment, primarily intermodal shipping containers and railcars, which it leases to its customers, and also manages equipment for third-party investors. The Company operates through three segments: container leasing, rail leasing and logistics. In operating the Company's fleet, it leases, re-leases and disposes equipment and contracts for the repair, repositioning and storage of equipment. The Company also provides domestic and international logistics services. The Company leases its container equipment to lessees under long-term leases, short-term leases and finance leases. The Company's long-term leases have terms of one year or more and specify the number of containers to be leased, the pick-up and drop-off locations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CAI International (CAI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 95.2
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -35.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 301.3%
Total Debt to Equity 322.3%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Return On Total Capital 0.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Return On Equity 1.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 82.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 92.8%
EBITDA Margin 39.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.2%
Operating Margin 18%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Net Profit Margin 2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Effective Tax Rate 40%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

CAI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CAI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $294 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CAI International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CAI International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CAI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.4%, whose default value for CAI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CAI International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CAI International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CAI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 72.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CAI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for CAI International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CAI International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CAI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CAI are equal to 606.8%.

Life of production assets of 16.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CAI International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CAI is equal to 7.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $458 million for CAI International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 20.01 million for CAI International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CAI International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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Financial statements of CAI
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