Intrinsic value of Cheesecake Factory - CAKE

Previous Close

$59.05

  Intrinsic Value

$3.14

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-95%

Previous close

$59.05

 
Intrinsic value

$3.14

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CAKE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2018), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047
   2048

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,306
  2,359
  2,420
  2,488
  2,563
  2,646
  2,736
  2,834
  2,939
  3,052
  3,172
  3,301
  3,438
  3,584
  3,739
  3,902
  4,076
  4,259
  4,453
  4,658
  4,873
  5,101
  5,341
  5,594
  5,860
  6,141
  6,436
  6,746
  7,073
  7,417
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,103
  2,152
  2,207
  2,269
  2,337
  2,413
  2,495
  2,584
  2,680
  2,782
  2,890
  3,007
  3,132
  3,265
  3,406
  3,555
  3,713
  3,880
  4,056
  4,243
  4,439
  4,647
  4,865
  5,096
  5,338
  5,594
  5,863
  6,145
  6,443
  6,756
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,103
  2,152
  2,207
  2,269
  2,337
  2,413
  2,495
  2,584
  2,680
  2,782
  2,890
  3,007
  3,132
  3,265
  3,406
  3,555
  3,713
  3,880
  4,056
  4,243
  4,439
  4,647
  4,865
  5,096
  5,338
  5,594
  5,863
  6,145
  6,443
  6,756
Operating income, $m
  203
  208
  213
  219
  226
  233
  241
  250
  259
  269
  283
  294
  306
  319
  333
  348
  363
  379
  397
  415
  434
  454
  476
  498
  522
  547
  573
  601
  630
  661
EBITDA, $m
  302
  309
  317
  326
  336
  347
  358
  371
  385
  400
  415
  432
  450
  469
  490
  511
  534
  558
  583
  610
  638
  668
  699
  733
  767
  804
  843
  884
  926
  971
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  13
  32
  54
  78
  106
  137
  170
  207
  247
  289
  335
  384
  436
  492
  551
  614
  681
  751
  826
  904
  987
  1,075
  1,168
  1,265
  1,368
  1,476
  1,590
  1,710
  1,836
  1,969
Earnings before tax, $m
  190
  176
  159
  141
  120
  97
  71
  43
  13
  -20
  -53
  -90
  -130
  -173
  -218
  -267
  -318
  -372
  -429
  -490
  -553
  -621
  -692
  -767
  -846
  -929
  -1,017
  -1,109
  -1,206
  -1,308
Tax expense, $m
  51
  47
  43
  38
  32
  26
  19
  12
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  139
  128
  116
  103
  88
  71
  52
  31
  9
  -20
  -53
  -90
  -130
  -173
  -218
  -267
  -318
  -372
  -429
  -490
  -553
  -621
  -692
  -767
  -846
  -929
  -1,017
  -1,109
  -1,206
  -1,308

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,360
  1,391
  1,427
  1,467
  1,511
  1,560
  1,613
  1,671
  1,733
  1,799
  1,871
  1,946
  2,027
  2,113
  2,204
  2,301
  2,403
  2,511
  2,626
  2,746
  2,873
  3,008
  3,149
  3,298
  3,455
  3,621
  3,795
  3,978
  4,170
  4,373
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,360
  1,391
  1,427
  1,467
  1,511
  1,560
  1,613
  1,671
  1,733
  1,799
  1,871
  1,946
  2,027
  2,113
  2,204
  2,301
  2,403
  2,511
  2,626
  2,746
  2,873
  3,008
  3,149
  3,298
  3,455
  3,621
  3,795
  3,978
  4,170
  4,373
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
  1.695
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
  1.696
Average production assets, $m
  966
  989
  1,014
  1,042
  1,074
  1,109
  1,146
  1,187
  1,231
  1,279
  1,329
  1,383
  1,441
  1,502
  1,566
  1,635
  1,708
  1,785
  1,866
  1,952
  2,042
  2,137
  2,238
  2,344
  2,455
  2,573
  2,697
  2,827
  2,964
  3,108
Working capital, $m
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
Total debt, $m
  25
  42
  61
  83
  107
  133
  162
  193
  227
  263
  301
  342
  386
  432
  481
  533
  589
  647
  709
  774
  843
  915
  992
  1,072
  1,157
  1,246
  1,340
  1,439
  1,543
  1,652
Total liabilities, $m
  734
  751
  770
  792
  816
  843
  871
  902
  936
  972
  1,010
  1,051
  1,095
  1,141
  1,190
  1,242
  1,298
  1,356
  1,418
  1,483
  1,552
  1,624
  1,701
  1,781
  1,866
  1,955
  2,049
  2,148
  2,252
  2,361
Total equity, $m
  626
  640
  656
  675
  695
  718
  742
  769
  797
  828
  860
  895
  933
  972
  1,014
  1,058
  1,105
  1,155
  1,208
  1,263
  1,322
  1,384
  1,449
  1,517
  1,589
  1,666
  1,746
  1,830
  1,918
  2,012
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,360
  1,391
  1,426
  1,467
  1,511
  1,561
  1,613
  1,671
  1,733
  1,800
  1,870
  1,946
  2,028
  2,113
  2,204
  2,300
  2,403
  2,511
  2,626
  2,746
  2,874
  3,008
  3,150
  3,298
  3,455
  3,621
  3,795
  3,978
  4,170
  4,373
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.040
  0.070
  0.090
  0.120
  0.150
  0.190
  0.220
  0.250
  0.280
  0.320
  0.350
  0.380
  0.410
  0.440
  0.470
  0.500
  0.530
  0.560
  0.590
  0.610
  0.640
  0.660
  0.680
  0.710
  0.730
  0.750
  0.770
  0.790
  0.800
  0.820
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  139
  128
  116
  103
  88
  71
  52
  31
  9
  -20
  -53
  -90
  -130
  -173
  -218
  -267
  -318
  -372
  -429
  -490
  -553
  -621
  -692
  -767
  -846
  -929
  -1,017
  -1,109
  -1,206
  -1,308
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  99
  101
  104
  107
  110
  113
  117
  121
  126
  130
  133
  138
  144
  150
  157
  164
  171
  178
  187
  195
  204
  214
  224
  234
  246
  257
  270
  283
  296
  311
Funds from operations, $m
  238
  229
  220
  209
  197
  184
  169
  153
  135
  110
  80
  48
  14
  -23
  -62
  -103
  -147
  -193
  -242
  -294
  -349
  -407
  -468
  -533
  -600
  -672
  -747
  -826
  -910
  -998
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  238
  230
  220
  210
  198
  184
  169
  153
  135
  111
  81
  49
  14
  -22
  -61
  -102
  -146
  -193
  -242
  -294
  -348
  -406
  -467
  -532
  -599
  -671
  -746
  -825
  -908
  -996
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -95
  -97
  -99
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -119
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -187
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -234
  -246
  -257
  -270
  -283
  -296
New CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -179
  -187
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -237
  -248
  -259
  -273
  -285
  -299
  -315
  -330
  -346
  -363
  -381
  -400
  -420
  -440
Free cash flow, $m
  123
  111
  96
  80
  62
  42
  21
  -3
  -27
  -60
  -98
  -138
  -181
  -227
  -276
  -328
  -382
  -440
  -501
  -566
  -634
  -706
  -782
  -861
  -945
  -1,034
  -1,127
  -1,225
  -1,328
  -1,437
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  19
  50
  85
  125
  167
  212
  260
  311
  365
  422
  482
  545
  612
  683
  757
  836
  918
  1,005
  1,097
  1,193
  1,295
  1,402
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  52
  86
  123
  166
  211
  258
  309
  363
  420
  480
  544
  610
  681
  755
  833
  917
  1,003
  1,094
  1,191
  1,292
  1,399
  1,511
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  139
  128
  115
  101
  86
  68
  49
  29
  25
  27
  26
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -50
  -85
  -125
  -167
  -212
  -260
  -311
  -365
  -422
  -482
  -545
  -612
  -683
  -757
  -836
  -918
  -1,005
  -1,097
  -1,193
  -1,295
  -1,402
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
Cash available for distribution, $m
  127
  113
  99
  83
  65
  46
  25
  2
  -3
  -24
  -59
  -97
  -138
  -181
  -227
  -276
  -327
  -382
  -440
  -501
  -565
  -633
  -705
  -781
  -861
  -945
  -1,033
  -1,126
  -1,224
  -1,327
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  122
  104
  86
  68
  51
  33
  17
  1
  -2
  -12
  -28
  -41
  -52
  -61
  -67
  -70
  -71
  -70
  -68
  -64
  -58
  -53
  -46
  -40
  -33
  -28
  -22
  -17
  -13
  -10
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.5
  98.1
  95.9
  92.9
  89.2
  84.9
  80.2
  75.1
  69.8
  64.3
  58.9
  53.6
  48.4
  43.4
  38.7
  34.3
  30.3
  26.6
  23.2
  20.1
  17.4
  15.0

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated is engaged in the restaurant and bakery business. As of March 2, 2017, the Company operated 208 Company-owned restaurants: 194 under The Cheesecake Factory mark, 13 under the Grand Lux Cafe mark and one under the Rock Sugar Pan Asian Kitchen mark. The Company's segments include The Cheesecake Factory restaurants, and other. It also operates bakery production facilities, which produce desserts for its restaurants, international licensees and third-party bakery customers. Its restaurants offer lunch and dinner, as well as Sunday brunch. Its restaurants also offer a bar. As of January 3, 2017, its menu consisted of over 200 items in addition to items presented on supplemental menus, such as its SkinnyLicious menu, which offers approximately 50 items. Its Grand Lux Cafe is a casual dining concept that offers artisan cuisine. It offers appetizers, seafood and steaks.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.3
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 4.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 33
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Return On Total Capital 23.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.5%
Return On Equity 23.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.5%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 76.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 76%
EBITDA Margin 12.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Operating Margin 8.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Net Profit Margin 6.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Effective Tax Rate 27.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.1%
Payout Ratio 30.2%

CAKE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CAKE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2261 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cheesecake Factory. The default revenue input number comes from 2018 income statement of Cheesecake Factory. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CAKE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CAKE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cheesecake Factory, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cheesecake Factory.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CAKE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CAKE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 127.6% for Cheesecake Factory.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cheesecake Factory. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CAKE stock is equal to 0.7%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CAKE are equal to 41.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cheesecake Factory operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CAKE is equal to -0.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $614 million for Cheesecake Factory - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47 million for Cheesecake Factory is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cheesecake Factory at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Bulls bet on this energy name   [Jun-28-18 02:05PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ California fines Cheesecake Factory $4.5M for wage violations   [Jun-12-18 09:38AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Trump supporter harassed by Cheesecake Factory employees   [May-16-18 06:24PM  Fox Business Videos]
▶ [$$] Jetpacks and Tech-Enable Cities: How We'll Live in the Future   [May-09-18 08:26PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ P.F. Changs opens first store in China   [May-01-18 10:31AM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Cheesecake Factory: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-25-18 04:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ Theres Nothing Sweet About Cheesecake Factory Inc Stock   [Feb-23-18 10:11AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Company News For Feb 23, 2018   [09:31AM  Zacks]
▶ Cheesecake Factory meets 4Q profit forecasts   [04:22PM  Associated Press]
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