Intrinsic value of Cardtronics plc - CATM

Previous Close

$35.01

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$35.01

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CATM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,372
  1,403
  1,440
  1,480
  1,525
  1,574
  1,628
  1,686
  1,748
  1,815
  1,887
  1,964
  2,045
  2,132
  2,224
  2,321
  2,425
  2,534
  2,649
  2,771
  2,899
  3,034
  3,177
  3,328
  3,486
  3,653
  3,828
  4,013
  4,208
  4,412
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,468
  1,501
  1,538
  1,580
  1,627
  1,678
  1,734
  1,794
  1,859
  1,928
  1,957
  2,036
  2,121
  2,210
  2,306
  2,407
  2,514
  2,627
  2,746
  2,873
  3,006
  3,146
  3,294
  3,450
  3,614
  3,787
  3,969
  4,161
  4,362
  4,574
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,468
  1,501
  1,538
  1,580
  1,627
  1,678
  1,734
  1,794
  1,859
  1,928
  1,957
  2,036
  2,121
  2,210
  2,306
  2,407
  2,514
  2,627
  2,746
  2,873
  3,006
  3,146
  3,294
  3,450
  3,614
  3,787
  3,969
  4,161
  4,362
  4,574
Operating income, $m
  -96
  -98
  -99
  -100
  -102
  -104
  -106
  -108
  -110
  -113
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -162
EBITDA, $m
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  83
  86
  89
  92
  96
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  184
  192
  202
  211
  222
  232
Interest expense (income), $m
  17
  44
  46
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  156
  165
  175
  185
  195
  206
Earnings before tax, $m
  -141
  -143
  -146
  -150
  -154
  -158
  -163
  -168
  -174
  -180
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -179
  -189
  -198
  -209
  -220
  -231
  -244
  -257
  -270
  -285
  -300
  -316
  -332
  -350
  -368
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -141
  -143
  -146
  -150
  -154
  -158
  -163
  -168
  -174
  -180
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -179
  -189
  -198
  -209
  -220
  -231
  -244
  -257
  -270
  -285
  -300
  -316
  -332
  -350
  -368

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,822
  1,864
  1,912
  1,965
  2,025
  2,090
  2,162
  2,239
  2,322
  2,411
  2,506
  2,608
  2,716
  2,831
  2,953
  3,083
  3,220
  3,365
  3,518
  3,679
  3,850
  4,030
  4,219
  4,419
  4,630
  4,851
  5,084
  5,330
  5,588
  5,859
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,822
  1,864
  1,912
  1,965
  2,025
  2,090
  2,162
  2,239
  2,322
  2,411
  2,506
  2,608
  2,716
  2,831
  2,953
  3,083
  3,220
  3,365
  3,518
  3,679
  3,850
  4,030
  4,219
  4,419
  4,630
  4,851
  5,084
  5,330
  5,588
  5,859
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
Average production assets, $m
  970
  992
  1,018
  1,046
  1,078
  1,113
  1,151
  1,192
  1,236
  1,283
  1,334
  1,388
  1,446
  1,507
  1,572
  1,641
  1,714
  1,791
  1,873
  1,959
  2,050
  2,145
  2,246
  2,353
  2,465
  2,583
  2,707
  2,837
  2,975
  3,119
Working capital, $m
  -262
  -268
  -275
  -283
  -291
  -301
  -311
  -322
  -334
  -347
  -360
  -375
  -391
  -407
  -425
  -443
  -463
  -484
  -506
  -529
  -554
  -580
  -607
  -636
  -666
  -698
  -731
  -767
  -804
  -843
Total debt, $m
  845
  879
  916
  959
  1,006
  1,057
  1,114
  1,174
  1,240
  1,310
  1,385
  1,466
  1,551
  1,642
  1,738
  1,840
  1,948
  2,063
  2,184
  2,311
  2,446
  2,588
  2,737
  2,895
  3,061
  3,236
  3,419
  3,613
  3,817
  4,031
Total liabilities, $m
  1,437
  1,471
  1,508
  1,551
  1,598
  1,649
  1,706
  1,766
  1,832
  1,902
  1,977
  2,058
  2,143
  2,234
  2,330
  2,432
  2,540
  2,655
  2,776
  2,903
  3,038
  3,180
  3,329
  3,487
  3,653
  3,828
  4,011
  4,205
  4,409
  4,623
Total equity, $m
  384
  393
  403
  415
  427
  441
  456
  472
  490
  509
  529
  550
  573
  597
  623
  650
  679
  710
  742
  776
  812
  850
  890
  932
  977
  1,024
  1,073
  1,125
  1,179
  1,236
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,821
  1,864
  1,911
  1,966
  2,025
  2,090
  2,162
  2,238
  2,322
  2,411
  2,506
  2,608
  2,716
  2,831
  2,953
  3,082
  3,219
  3,365
  3,518
  3,679
  3,850
  4,030
  4,219
  4,419
  4,630
  4,852
  5,084
  5,330
  5,588
  5,859
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.200
  2.230
  2.270
  2.310
  2.350
  2.400
  2.440
  2.490
  2.530
  2.580
  2.620
  2.660
  2.710
  2.750
  2.790
  2.830
  2.870
  2.910
  2.940
  2.980
  3.010
  3.040
  3.070
  3.100
  3.130
  3.160
  3.190
  3.210
  3.240
  3.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -141
  -143
  -146
  -150
  -154
  -158
  -163
  -168
  -174
  -180
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -179
  -189
  -198
  -209
  -220
  -231
  -244
  -257
  -270
  -285
  -300
  -316
  -332
  -350
  -368
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  169
  172
  175
  178
  182
  187
  192
  197
  202
  208
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  208
  217
  227
  237
  248
  259
  272
  284
  298
  312
  327
  343
  359
  377
  395
Funds from operations, $m
  28
  28
  28
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  26
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
Cash from operations, $m
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  65
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -120
  -123
  -126
  -129
  -132
  -136
  -141
  -146
  -151
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -199
  -208
  -217
  -227
  -237
  -248
  -259
  -272
  -284
  -298
  -312
  -327
  -343
  -359
  -377
New CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -22
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -137
  -145
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -140
  -145
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -195
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -234
  -244
  -256
  -268
  -281
  -294
  -308
  -323
  -339
  -355
  -373
  -390
  -410
  -430
  -451
  -474
  -496
  -522
Free cash flow, $m
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -199
  -210
  -221
  -233
  -245
  -258
  -272
  -286
  -301
  -318
  -334
  -352
  -371
  -390
  -411
  -433
  -456
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  27
  33
  38
  42
  47
  52
  56
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  194
  204
  214
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  148
  152
  157
  161
  166
  172
  178
  184
  191
  199
  160
  169
  177
  186
  196
  207
  218
  229
  241
  254
  267
  282
  297
  312
  329
  346
  365
  384
  404
  426
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  175
  185
  195
  203
  213
  224
  234
  245
  257
  269
  235
  249
  262
  277
  292
  309
  326
  343
  362
  382
  402
  424
  447
  470
  495
  521
  549
  578
  608
  640
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  69
  74
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  150
  158
  167
  175
  184
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -148
  -152
  -157
  -161
  -166
  -172
  -178
  -184
  -191
  -199
  -160
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -241
  -254
  -267
  -282
  -297
  -312
  -329
  -346
  -365
  -384
  -404
  -426
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -80
  -78
  -78
  -79
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -99
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -241
Discount rate, %
  5.50
  5.78
  6.06
  6.37
  6.69
  7.02
  7.37
  7.74
  8.13
  8.53
  8.96
  9.41
  9.88
  10.37
  10.89
  11.43
  12.01
  12.61
  13.24
  13.90
  14.59
  15.32
  16.09
  16.89
  17.74
  18.62
  19.56
  20.53
  21.56
  22.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -76
  -69
  -65
  -62
  -58
  -54
  -51
  -47
  -44
  -41
  -37
  -34
  -30
  -27
  -24
  -21
  -18
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  91.6
  83.9
  76.8
  70.2
  64.2
  58.7
  53.7
  49.1
  44.8
  41.0
  38.2
  35.5
  33.1
  30.7
  28.5
  26.5
  24.6
  22.8
  21.1
  19.6
  18.1
  16.8
  15.5
  14.3
  13.2
  12.2
  11.3
  10.4
  9.6
  8.9

Cardtronics plc, formerly Cardtronics, Inc., provides automated consumer financial services through its network of automated teller machines (ATMS) and multi-function financial services kiosks. The Company's operations consists of its North America, Europe, and Corporate & Other segments. Its ATM operations in the United States, Canada, Mexico and Puerto Rico are included in its North America segment. Its ATM operations in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Germany, Poland, Spain and i-design are included in its Europe segment. Its transaction processing operations, which service its North American and European operations, along with external customers, and the Company's corporate general and administrative functions comprise the Corporate & Other segment. As of December 31, 2016, it provided services to approximately 203,000 ATMs throughout the United States (including the United States territory of Puerto Rico), the United Kingdom, Ireland, Germany, Poland, Spain, Canada and Mexico.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cardtronics plc (CATM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 3.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 11
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -11.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 110.1%
Total Debt to Equity 110.1%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Total Capital 9.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Equity 21.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.4%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.6%
EBITDA Margin 20.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
Operating Margin 11.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Net Profit Margin 7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Effective Tax Rate 23.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35%
Payout Ratio 0%

CATM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CATM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1345 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cardtronics plc. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Cardtronics plc. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CATM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.5%, whose default value for CATM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cardtronics plc, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cardtronics plc.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CATM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 107.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CATM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Cardtronics plc.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cardtronics plc. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CATM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CATM are equal to 70.7%.

Life of production assets of 7.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cardtronics plc operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CATM is equal to -19.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $376.869 million for Cardtronics plc - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 46.246 million for Cardtronics plc is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cardtronics plc at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.

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