Intrinsic value of Catasys, Inc. - CATS

Previous Close

$18.88

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$18.88

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CATS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  13
  20
  30
  43
  61
  83
  112
  147
  189
  238
  296
  362
  436
  519
  610
  710
  818
  934
  1,058
  1,189
  1,328
  1,474
  1,628
  1,789
  1,957
  2,132
  2,314
  2,504
  2,701
  2,906
Variable operating expenses, $m
  24
  37
  55
  80
  113
  155
  208
  273
  352
  444
  551
  674
  813
  967
  1,137
  1,322
  1,523
  1,739
  1,970
  2,215
  2,473
  2,746
  3,032
  3,331
  3,644
  3,970
  4,310
  4,663
  5,030
  5,412
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  24
  37
  55
  80
  113
  155
  208
  273
  352
  444
  551
  674
  813
  967
  1,137
  1,322
  1,523
  1,739
  1,970
  2,215
  2,473
  2,746
  3,032
  3,331
  3,644
  3,970
  4,310
  4,663
  5,030
  5,412
Operating income, $m
  -11
  -17
  -26
  -37
  -52
  -72
  -96
  -127
  -163
  -206
  -255
  -312
  -376
  -448
  -526
  -612
  -705
  -805
  -912
  -1,026
  -1,145
  -1,272
  -1,404
  -1,543
  -1,687
  -1,838
  -1,996
  -2,159
  -2,329
  -2,506
EBITDA, $m
  -11
  -17
  -25
  -36
  -51
  -71
  -95
  -125
  -160
  -203
  -252
  -308
  -371
  -441
  -519
  -603
  -695
  -793
  -899
  -1,010
  -1,128
  -1,253
  -1,383
  -1,520
  -1,662
  -1,811
  -1,966
  -2,127
  -2,295
  -2,469
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  2
  6
  11
  17
  26
  37
  51
  69
  90
  114
  143
  175
  212
  253
  298
  348
  401
  458
  520
  585
  654
  726
  802
  882
  965
  1,051
  1,142
  1,236
  1,333
Earnings before tax, $m
  -11
  -20
  -31
  -48
  -70
  -98
  -134
  -178
  -232
  -295
  -369
  -455
  -552
  -660
  -780
  -911
  -1,053
  -1,206
  -1,371
  -1,545
  -1,730
  -1,925
  -2,130
  -2,345
  -2,569
  -2,803
  -3,047
  -3,301
  -3,565
  -3,840
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -11
  -20
  -31
  -48
  -70
  -98
  -134
  -178
  -232
  -295
  -369
  -455
  -552
  -660
  -780
  -911
  -1,053
  -1,206
  -1,371
  -1,545
  -1,730
  -1,925
  -2,130
  -2,345
  -2,569
  -2,803
  -3,047
  -3,301
  -3,565
  -3,840

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  11
  16
  24
  35
  50
  69
  92
  121
  156
  197
  244
  299
  360
  429
  504
  586
  675
  771
  873
  982
  1,097
  1,217
  1,344
  1,477
  1,616
  1,760
  1,911
  2,067
  2,230
  2,400
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  11
  16
  24
  35
  50
  69
  92
  121
  156
  197
  244
  299
  360
  429
  504
  586
  675
  771
  873
  982
  1,097
  1,217
  1,344
  1,477
  1,616
  1,760
  1,911
  2,067
  2,230
  2,400
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.182
  1.250
  1.250
  1.229
  1.220
  1.203
  1.217
  1.215
  1.212
  1.208
  1.213
  1.211
  1.211
  1.210
  1.210
  1.212
  1.212
  1.211
  1.212
  1.211
  1.211
  1.211
  1.211
  1.211
  1.211
  1.211
  1.211
  1.211
  1.211
  1.211
Average production assets, $m
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  12
  15
  19
  23
  28
  33
  39
  45
  52
  60
  68
  76
  85
  94
  104
  114
  125
  136
  148
  160
  173
  186
Working capital, $m
  -8
  -12
  -18
  -26
  -36
  -50
  -67
  -88
  -113
  -142
  -177
  -216
  -260
  -310
  -364
  -424
  -488
  -557
  -631
  -710
  -793
  -880
  -972
  -1,068
  -1,168
  -1,273
  -1,381
  -1,495
  -1,612
  -1,735
Total debt, $m
  3
  8
  15
  25
  37
  54
  74
  99
  129
  164
  206
  253
  306
  365
  430
  501
  578
  661
  749
  843
  942
  1,046
  1,156
  1,270
  1,390
  1,515
  1,645
  1,781
  1,921
  2,068
Total liabilities, $m
  9
  14
  21
  31
  43
  59
  80
  105
  135
  170
  211
  258
  311
  370
  435
  507
  584
  666
  755
  848
  947
  1,052
  1,161
  1,276
  1,396
  1,521
  1,651
  1,786
  1,927
  2,073
Total equity, $m
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  13
  16
  21
  27
  33
  41
  49
  58
  69
  80
  92
  105
  119
  134
  149
  166
  183
  201
  220
  239
  260
  281
  303
  326
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  10
  16
  24
  36
  50
  68
  93
  121
  156
  197
  244
  299
  360
  428
  504
  587
  676
  771
  874
  982
  1,096
  1,218
  1,344
  1,477
  1,616
  1,760
  1,911
  2,067
  2,230
  2,399
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.380
  3.780
  4.640
  5.170
  5.510
  5.740
  5.900
  6.010
  6.080
  6.140
  6.180
  6.210
  6.240
  6.260
  6.270
  6.280
  6.290
  6.300
  6.300
  6.310
  6.310
  6.320
  6.320
  6.320
  6.330
  6.330
  6.330
  6.330
  6.330
  6.340
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -11
  -20
  -31
  -48
  -70
  -98
  -134
  -178
  -232
  -295
  -369
  -455
  -552
  -660
  -780
  -911
  -1,053
  -1,206
  -1,371
  -1,545
  -1,730
  -1,925
  -2,130
  -2,345
  -2,569
  -2,803
  -3,047
  -3,301
  -3,565
  -3,840
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
Funds from operations, $m
  -11
  -19
  -31
  -47
  -69
  -97
  -132
  -176
  -229
  -292
  -366
  -450
  -546
  -653
  -772
  -902
  -1,043
  -1,194
  -1,357
  -1,530
  -1,713
  -1,906
  -2,109
  -2,322
  -2,544
  -2,776
  -3,018
  -3,269
  -3,531
  -3,802
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -21
  -25
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -122
Cash from operations, $m
  -8
  -15
  -25
  -39
  -58
  -83
  -115
  -155
  -204
  -262
  -331
  -411
  -502
  -604
  -717
  -842
  -978
  -1,125
  -1,283
  -1,452
  -1,630
  -1,819
  -2,018
  -2,226
  -2,444
  -2,671
  -2,909
  -3,156
  -3,413
  -3,680
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -5
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
Free cash flow, $m
  -8
  -16
  -26
  -40
  -60
  -85
  -118
  -159
  -209
  -268
  -338
  -419
  -511
  -615
  -730
  -856
  -994
  -1,143
  -1,303
  -1,473
  -1,654
  -1,845
  -2,046
  -2,257
  -2,478
  -2,708
  -2,948
  -3,198
  -3,458
  -3,728
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  3
  5
  7
  10
  13
  16
  20
  25
  30
  35
  41
  47
  53
  59
  65
  71
  77
  83
  88
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  146
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  12
  20
  33
  49
  72
  100
  137
  182
  236
  301
  376
  462
  560
  669
  790
  922
  1,065
  1,219
  1,384
  1,560
  1,746
  1,942
  2,147
  2,363
  2,588
  2,823
  3,068
  3,322
  3,587
  3,863
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  15
  25
  40
  59
  85
  116
  157
  207
  266
  336
  417
  509
  613
  728
  855
  993
  1,142
  1,302
  1,472
  1,654
  1,845
  2,046
  2,257
  2,478
  2,708
  2,948
  3,198
  3,457
  3,728
  4,009
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  7
  10
  14
  18
  24
  31
  39
  48
  58
  68
  79
  90
  102
  114
  125
  137
  148
  159
  170
  180
  191
  201
  211
  220
  230
  240
  250
  260
  271
  281
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -12
  -20
  -33
  -49
  -72
  -100
  -137
  -182
  -236
  -301
  -376
  -462
  -560
  -669
  -790
  -922
  -1,065
  -1,219
  -1,384
  -1,560
  -1,746
  -1,942
  -2,147
  -2,363
  -2,588
  -2,823
  -3,068
  -3,322
  -3,587
  -3,863
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -5
  -11
  -19
  -31
  -47
  -69
  -98
  -134
  -179
  -233
  -297
  -372
  -458
  -556
  -665
  -785
  -917
  -1,060
  -1,215
  -1,380
  -1,555
  -1,741
  -1,937
  -2,142
  -2,358
  -2,583
  -2,818
  -3,062
  -3,317
  -3,582
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -5
  -10
  -17
  -25
  -37
  -50
  -66
  -84
  -103
  -122
  -141
  -159
  -174
  -186
  -195
  -200
  -200
  -195
  -187
  -175
  -161
  -144
  -127
  -109
  -92
  -75
  -60
  -47
  -36
  -27
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  43.5
  18.0
  7.3
  2.9
  1.2
  0.5
  0.2
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Catasys, Inc. (CATS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

CATS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CATS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $8 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Catasys, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Catasys, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CATS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CATS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Catasys, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Catasys, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CATS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 187.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CATS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 69.4% for Catasys, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Catasys, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CATS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CATS are equal to 6.4%.

Life of production assets of 2.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Catasys, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CATS is equal to -59.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0.898 million for Catasys, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16.136 million for Catasys, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Catasys, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
CNC Centene Corpor 53.55 306.07  str.buy
MGLN Magellan Healt 65.48 174.56  str.buy
HMSY HMS Holdings C 30.24 12.13  str.sell
HUM Humana Inc. 251.83 547.31  str.buy
MOH Molina Healthc 144.93 5.83  str.sell
IDXG Interpace Diag 0.700 0.06  str.sell

CONTACT US      

About X-FIN       Privacy policy       Terms of use      

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2019. All rigths reserved.