Intrinsic value of Chubb - CB

Previous Close

$133.37

  Intrinsic Value

$1.74

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-99%

Previous close

$133.37

 
Intrinsic value

$1.74

 
Up/down potential

-99%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as CB.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 61.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.50
  2.75
  2.97
  3.18
  3.36
  3.52
  3.67
  3.80
  3.92
  4.03
  4.13
  4.22
  4.29
  4.36
  4.43
  4.49
  4.54
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.70
  4.73
  4.75
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
Revenue, $m
  33,049
  33,958
  34,968
  36,079
  37,291
  38,606
  40,023
  41,545
  43,176
  44,916
  46,771
  48,742
  50,835
  53,054
  55,403
  57,888
  60,514
  63,288
  66,215
  69,302
  72,556
  75,985
  79,598
  83,401
  87,405
  91,618
  96,051
  100,714
  105,618
  110,775
Variable operating expenses, $m
  27,157
  27,856
  28,634
  29,489
  30,422
  31,434
  32,525
  33,697
  34,952
  36,292
  36,004
  37,522
  39,133
  40,841
  42,650
  44,563
  46,584
  48,719
  50,973
  53,349
  55,854
  58,494
  61,275
  64,203
  67,285
  70,529
  73,941
  77,531
  81,306
  85,275
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  27,157
  27,856
  28,634
  29,489
  30,422
  31,434
  32,525
  33,697
  34,952
  36,292
  36,004
  37,522
  39,133
  40,841
  42,650
  44,563
  46,584
  48,719
  50,973
  53,349
  55,854
  58,494
  61,275
  64,203
  67,285
  70,529
  73,941
  77,531
  81,306
  85,275
Operating income, $m
  5,893
  6,102
  6,334
  6,590
  6,869
  7,172
  7,498
  7,848
  8,224
  8,624
  10,766
  11,220
  11,702
  12,212
  12,753
  13,325
  13,930
  14,568
  15,242
  15,953
  16,702
  17,491
  18,323
  19,198
  20,120
  21,090
  22,110
  23,183
  24,312
  25,499
EBITDA, $m
  26,023
  26,738
  27,534
  28,408
  29,363
  30,398
  31,514
  32,712
  33,996
  35,367
  36,827
  38,379
  40,027
  41,774
  43,624
  45,580
  47,648
  49,832
  52,137
  54,567
  57,130
  59,830
  62,674
  65,669
  68,822
  72,139
  75,630
  79,301
  83,163
  87,223
Interest expense (income), $m
  642
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
  5,568
Earnings before tax, $m
  325
  534
  767
  1,022
  1,301
  1,604
  1,930
  2,281
  2,656
  3,057
  5,198
  5,652
  6,134
  6,645
  7,185
  7,758
  8,362
  9,000
  9,674
  10,385
  11,134
  11,923
  12,755
  13,630
  14,552
  15,522
  16,542
  17,616
  18,744
  19,931
Tax expense, $m
  88
  144
  207
  276
  351
  433
  521
  616
  717
  825
  1,404
  1,526
  1,656
  1,794
  1,940
  2,095
  2,258
  2,430
  2,612
  2,804
  3,006
  3,219
  3,444
  3,680
  3,929
  4,191
  4,466
  4,756
  5,061
  5,381
Net income, $m
  237
  390
  560
  746
  950
  1,171
  1,409
  1,665
  1,939
  2,231
  3,795
  4,126
  4,478
  4,851
  5,245
  5,663
  6,104
  6,570
  7,062
  7,581
  8,128
  8,704
  9,311
  9,950
  10,623
  11,331
  12,076
  12,859
  13,683
  14,550

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Average production assets, $m
  184,149
  189,214
  194,843
  201,034
  207,788
  215,110
  223,008
  231,491
  240,575
  250,273
  260,605
  271,591
  283,253
  295,616
  308,706
  322,552
  337,185
  352,639
  368,948
  386,149
  404,283
  423,391
  443,518
  464,711
  487,020
  510,497
  535,197
  561,179
  588,504
  617,236
Working capital, $m
  -96,140
  -98,784
  -101,722
  -104,955
  -108,481
  -112,303
  -116,427
  -120,856
  -125,598
  -130,661
  -136,055
  -141,791
  -147,879
  -154,333
  -161,167
  -168,396
  -176,036
  -184,104
  -192,618
  -201,599
  -211,066
  -221,042
  -231,550
  -242,614
  -254,261
  -266,518
  -279,413
  -292,977
  -307,243
  -322,243
Total debt, $m
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
  103,106
Total liabilities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total equity, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  237
  390
  560
  746
  950
  1,171
  1,409
  1,665
  1,939
  2,231
  3,795
  4,126
  4,478
  4,851
  5,245
  5,663
  6,104
  6,570
  7,062
  7,581
  8,128
  8,704
  9,311
  9,950
  10,623
  11,331
  12,076
  12,859
  13,683
  14,550
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  20,130
  20,636
  21,199
  21,818
  22,494
  23,226
  24,016
  24,864
  25,772
  26,742
  26,061
  27,159
  28,325
  29,562
  30,871
  32,255
  33,719
  35,264
  36,895
  38,615
  40,428
  42,339
  44,352
  46,471
  48,702
  51,050
  53,520
  56,118
  58,850
  61,724
Funds from operations, $m
  20,367
  21,026
  21,759
  22,565
  23,444
  24,397
  25,425
  26,529
  27,711
  28,974
  29,855
  31,285
  32,803
  34,412
  36,116
  37,918
  39,823
  41,834
  43,957
  46,196
  48,556
  51,043
  53,663
  56,421
  59,325
  62,381
  65,596
  68,977
  72,534
  76,274
Change in working capital, $m
  -2,345
  -2,644
  -2,939
  -3,232
  -3,526
  -3,823
  -4,123
  -4,429
  -4,742
  -5,063
  -5,394
  -5,735
  -6,088
  -6,454
  -6,834
  -7,229
  -7,640
  -8,068
  -8,514
  -8,980
  -9,467
  -9,976
  -10,508
  -11,064
  -11,647
  -12,257
  -12,895
  -13,564
  -14,266
  -15,000
Cash from operations, $m
  22,712
  23,670
  24,698
  25,797
  26,970
  28,219
  29,548
  30,958
  32,453
  34,037
  35,249
  37,021
  38,892
  40,866
  42,950
  45,147
  47,463
  49,902
  52,471
  55,176
  58,023
  61,019
  64,171
  67,486
  70,972
  74,637
  78,491
  82,542
  86,799
  91,274
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -17,965
  -18,415
  -18,921
  -19,484
  -20,103
  -20,779
  -21,511
  -22,301
  -23,149
  -24,057
  -25,027
  -26,061
  -27,159
  -28,325
  -29,562
  -30,871
  -32,255
  -33,719
  -35,264
  -36,895
  -38,615
  -40,428
  -42,339
  -44,352
  -46,471
  -48,702
  -51,050
  -53,520
  -56,118
  -58,850
New CAPEX, $m
  -4,497
  -5,064
  -5,629
  -6,191
  -6,754
  -7,322
  -7,898
  -8,484
  -9,083
  -9,699
  -10,332
  -10,986
  -11,662
  -12,363
  -13,090
  -13,846
  -14,633
  -15,453
  -16,309
  -17,201
  -18,134
  -19,108
  -20,127
  -21,193
  -22,309
  -23,477
  -24,700
  -25,982
  -27,325
  -28,732
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -22,462
  -23,479
  -24,550
  -25,675
  -26,857
  -28,101
  -29,409
  -30,785
  -32,232
  -33,756
  -35,359
  -37,047
  -38,821
  -40,688
  -42,652
  -44,717
  -46,888
  -49,172
  -51,573
  -54,096
  -56,749
  -59,536
  -62,466
  -65,545
  -68,780
  -72,179
  -75,750
  -79,502
  -83,443
  -87,582
Free cash flow, $m
  250
  191
  147
  122
  112
  119
  139
  174
  221
  281
  -110
  -26
  70
  178
  298
  430
  574
  730
  899
  1,080
  1,275
  1,483
  1,704
  1,941
  2,192
  2,458
  2,741
  3,040
  3,357
  3,691
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  250
  191
  147
  122
  112
  119
  139
  174
  221
  281
  -110
  -26
  70
  178
  298
  430
  574
  730
  899
  1,080
  1,275
  1,483
  1,704
  1,941
  2,192
  2,458
  2,741
  3,040
  3,357
  3,691
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  250
  191
  147
  122
  112
  119
  139
  174
  221
  281
  0
  0
  70
  178
  298
  430
  574
  730
  899
  1,080
  1,275
  1,483
  1,704
  1,941
  2,192
  2,458
  2,741
  3,040
  3,357
  3,691
Discount rate, %
  14.60
  15.33
  16.10
  16.90
  17.75
  18.63
  19.57
  20.54
  21.57
  22.65
  23.78
  24.97
  26.22
  27.53
  28.91
  30.35
  31.87
  33.46
  35.14
  36.89
  38.74
  40.68
  42.71
  44.84
  47.09
  49.44
  51.91
  54.51
  57.23
  60.10
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  218
  144
  94
  65
  50
  43
  40
  39
  38
  36
  0
  0
  3
  6
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Chubb Limited is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides a range of insurance and reinsurance products and services to clients around the world. Its segments include North America Commercial property and casualty (P&C) Insurance, North America Personal P&C Insurance, North America Agricultural Insurance, Overseas General Insurance, Global Reinsurance and Life Insurance. It offers commercial insurance products and service offerings, such as risk management programs, loss control, and engineering and complex claims management. It provides specialized insurance products to areas, such as aviation and energy. It also offers personal lines insurance coverage, including homeowners, automobile, valuables, umbrella liability and recreational marine products. In addition, it supplies personal accident, supplemental health and life insurance to individuals in select countries.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Chubb (CB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15
Price to Sales 2
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 65.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 26.8%
Total Debt to Equity 27.8%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Return On Total Capital 8.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Return On Equity 10.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 17.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Operating Margin 16.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17%
Net Profit Margin 13.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Effective Tax Rate 16.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.2%
Payout Ratio 28.4%

CB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $32243 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Chubb. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Chubb. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.6%, whose default value for CB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Chubb, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Chubb.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Chubb.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Chubb. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CB are equal to 557.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Chubb operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CB is equal to -290.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Chubb - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 464 million for Chubb is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Chubb at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $61.9 billion.

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