Intrinsic value of Cincinnati Bell Inc - CBB

Previous Close

$7.17

  Intrinsic Value

$13.05

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+82%

Previous close

$7.17

 
Intrinsic value

$13.05

 
Up/down potential

+82%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CBB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  32.50
  29.75
  27.28
  25.05
  23.04
  21.24
  19.61
  18.15
  16.84
  15.65
  14.59
  13.63
  12.77
  11.99
  11.29
  10.66
  10.10
  9.59
  9.13
  8.71
  8.34
  8.01
  7.71
  7.44
  7.19
  6.97
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
Revenue, $m
  1,826
  2,369
  3,015
  3,770
  4,639
  5,625
  6,728
  7,949
  9,288
  10,741
  12,308
  13,986
  15,772
  17,663
  19,657
  21,753
  23,949
  26,245
  28,640
  31,136
  33,734
  36,436
  39,244
  42,163
  45,196
  48,348
  51,625
  55,031
  58,575
  62,262
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,653
  2,135
  2,708
  3,378
  4,149
  5,024
  6,003
  7,087
  8,274
  9,565
  10,923
  12,411
  13,996
  15,674
  17,444
  19,304
  21,253
  23,290
  25,416
  27,631
  29,936
  32,334
  34,826
  37,416
  40,108
  42,905
  45,812
  48,836
  51,980
  55,253
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  55
  57
  58
  59
  60
  62
  63
  65
  66
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  75
  77
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,694
  2,177
  2,751
  3,422
  4,194
  5,070
  6,050
  7,135
  8,323
  9,615
  10,974
  12,463
  14,049
  15,728
  17,499
  19,361
  21,311
  23,349
  25,476
  27,693
  29,999
  32,399
  34,892
  37,483
  40,177
  42,975
  45,884
  48,910
  52,055
  55,330
Operating income, $m
  132
  192
  264
  348
  445
  555
  678
  815
  964
  1,127
  1,335
  1,523
  1,723
  1,934
  2,158
  2,392
  2,638
  2,896
  3,164
  3,444
  3,735
  4,038
  4,352
  4,679
  5,019
  5,373
  5,740
  6,122
  6,519
  6,933
EBITDA, $m
  470
  622
  802
  1,012
  1,255
  1,530
  1,838
  2,179
  2,552
  2,958
  3,396
  3,865
  4,364
  4,892
  5,449
  6,035
  6,649
  7,291
  7,960
  8,658
  9,384
  10,139
  10,924
  11,740
  12,588
  13,469
  14,385
  15,338
  16,329
  17,360
Interest expense (income), $m
  71
  139
  171
  241
  324
  421
  532
  659
  800
  957
  1,129
  1,315
  1,516
  1,732
  1,961
  2,203
  2,459
  2,728
  3,010
  3,305
  3,612
  3,932
  4,266
  4,612
  4,973
  5,347
  5,736
  6,141
  6,561
  6,998
  7,453
Earnings before tax, $m
  -7
  21
  23
  24
  24
  23
  20
  15
  8
  -2
  20
  6
  -9
  -26
  -46
  -67
  -90
  -114
  -141
  -168
  -198
  -228
  -260
  -293
  -328
  -364
  -401
  -439
  -479
  -520
Tax expense, $m
  0
  6
  6
  7
  7
  6
  5
  4
  2
  0
  5
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -7
  15
  17
  18
  18
  17
  14
  11
  5
  -2
  14
  5
  -9
  -26
  -46
  -67
  -90
  -114
  -141
  -168
  -198
  -228
  -260
  -293
  -328
  -364
  -401
  -439
  -479
  -520

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,616
  4,691
  5,971
  7,466
  9,187
  11,138
  13,322
  15,741
  18,391
  21,270
  24,373
  27,695
  31,231
  34,976
  38,925
  43,075
  47,424
  51,970
  56,713
  61,656
  66,800
  72,150
  77,711
  83,491
  89,497
  95,739
  102,227
  108,973
  115,990
  123,292
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,616
  4,691
  5,971
  7,466
  9,187
  11,138
  13,322
  15,741
  18,391
  21,270
  24,373
  27,695
  31,231
  34,976
  38,925
  43,075
  47,424
  51,970
  56,713
  61,656
  66,800
  72,150
  77,711
  83,491
  89,497
  95,739
  102,227
  108,973
  115,990
  123,292
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
Average production assets, $m
  2,171
  2,817
  3,585
  4,483
  5,516
  6,688
  7,999
  9,451
  11,043
  12,772
  14,635
  16,629
  18,752
  21,001
  23,372
  25,864
  28,475
  31,205
  34,053
  37,021
  40,110
  43,322
  46,661
  50,132
  53,738
  57,486
  61,382
  65,432
  69,646
  74,030
Working capital, $m
  -121
  -156
  -199
  -249
  -306
  -371
  -444
  -525
  -613
  -709
  -812
  -923
  -1,041
  -1,166
  -1,297
  -1,436
  -1,581
  -1,732
  -1,890
  -2,055
  -2,226
  -2,405
  -2,590
  -2,783
  -2,983
  -3,191
  -3,407
  -3,632
  -3,866
  -4,109
Total debt, $m
  2,379
  3,347
  4,498
  5,844
  7,393
  9,149
  11,115
  13,291
  15,677
  18,268
  21,060
  24,050
  27,232
  30,603
  34,157
  37,892
  41,806
  45,897
  50,167
  54,615
  59,245
  64,060
  69,065
  74,267
  79,672
  85,289
  91,129
  97,200
  103,515
  110,087
Total liabilities, $m
  3,254
  4,222
  5,374
  6,720
  8,268
  10,024
  11,990
  14,167
  16,552
  19,143
  21,936
  24,926
  28,108
  31,478
  35,032
  38,767
  42,681
  46,773
  51,042
  55,490
  60,120
  64,935
  69,940
  75,142
  80,547
  86,165
  92,004
  98,076
  104,391
  110,963
Total equity, $m
  362
  469
  597
  747
  919
  1,114
  1,332
  1,574
  1,839
  2,127
  2,437
  2,770
  3,123
  3,498
  3,892
  4,307
  4,742
  5,197
  5,671
  6,166
  6,680
  7,215
  7,771
  8,349
  8,950
  9,574
  10,223
  10,897
  11,599
  12,329
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,616
  4,691
  5,971
  7,467
  9,187
  11,138
  13,322
  15,741
  18,391
  21,270
  24,373
  27,696
  31,231
  34,976
  38,924
  43,074
  47,423
  51,970
  56,713
  61,656
  66,800
  72,150
  77,711
  83,491
  89,497
  95,739
  102,227
  108,973
  115,990
  123,292
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.580
  7.130
  7.530
  7.830
  8.050
  8.210
  8.340
  8.440
  8.520
  8.590
  8.640
  8.680
  8.720
  8.750
  8.780
  8.800
  8.820
  8.830
  8.850
  8.860
  8.870
  8.880
  8.890
  8.900
  8.900
  8.910
  8.910
  8.920
  8.920
  8.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -7
  15
  17
  18
  18
  17
  14
  11
  5
  -2
  14
  5
  -9
  -26
  -46
  -67
  -90
  -114
  -141
  -168
  -198
  -228
  -260
  -293
  -328
  -364
  -401
  -439
  -479
  -520
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  338
  429
  537
  664
  809
  974
  1,159
  1,364
  1,588
  1,831
  2,061
  2,342
  2,641
  2,958
  3,292
  3,643
  4,011
  4,395
  4,796
  5,214
  5,649
  6,102
  6,572
  7,061
  7,569
  8,097
  8,645
  9,216
  9,809
  10,427
Funds from operations, $m
  332
  445
  554
  682
  827
  991
  1,174
  1,374
  1,593
  1,830
  2,076
  2,347
  2,632
  2,931
  3,246
  3,576
  3,921
  4,281
  4,656
  5,046
  5,452
  5,874
  6,312
  6,768
  7,241
  7,733
  8,245
  8,777
  9,330
  9,907
Change in working capital, $m
  -30
  -36
  -43
  -50
  -57
  -65
  -73
  -81
  -88
  -96
  -103
  -111
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -200
  -208
  -216
  -225
  -234
  -243
Cash from operations, $m
  361
  481
  597
  732
  885
  1,056
  1,246
  1,455
  1,682
  1,926
  2,179
  2,458
  2,750
  3,056
  3,378
  3,714
  4,066
  4,432
  4,814
  5,211
  5,623
  6,052
  6,497
  6,960
  7,441
  7,941
  8,461
  9,002
  9,564
  10,150
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -231
  -306
  -397
  -505
  -631
  -777
  -942
  -1,127
  -1,331
  -1,555
  -1,799
  -2,061
  -2,342
  -2,641
  -2,958
  -3,292
  -3,643
  -4,011
  -4,395
  -4,796
  -5,214
  -5,649
  -6,102
  -6,572
  -7,061
  -7,569
  -8,097
  -8,645
  -9,216
  -9,809
New CAPEX, $m
  -532
  -646
  -768
  -898
  -1,033
  -1,172
  -1,312
  -1,452
  -1,591
  -1,729
  -1,863
  -1,995
  -2,123
  -2,248
  -2,371
  -2,492
  -2,611
  -2,730
  -2,848
  -2,968
  -3,089
  -3,212
  -3,339
  -3,470
  -3,606
  -3,748
  -3,896
  -4,051
  -4,213
  -4,384
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -763
  -952
  -1,165
  -1,403
  -1,664
  -1,949
  -2,254
  -2,579
  -2,922
  -3,284
  -3,662
  -4,056
  -4,465
  -4,889
  -5,329
  -5,784
  -6,254
  -6,741
  -7,243
  -7,764
  -8,303
  -8,861
  -9,441
  -10,042
  -10,667
  -11,317
  -11,993
  -12,696
  -13,429
  -14,193
Free cash flow, $m
  -402
  -471
  -568
  -671
  -780
  -892
  -1,007
  -1,124
  -1,241
  -1,358
  -1,483
  -1,598
  -1,715
  -1,833
  -1,951
  -2,070
  -2,188
  -2,308
  -2,430
  -2,553
  -2,680
  -2,810
  -2,944
  -3,082
  -3,226
  -3,375
  -3,531
  -3,694
  -3,865
  -4,044
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  449
  968
  1,152
  1,346
  1,548
  1,756
  1,966
  2,177
  2,385
  2,591
  2,793
  2,990
  3,182
  3,370
  3,554
  3,735
  3,914
  4,092
  4,269
  4,448
  4,630
  4,815
  5,005
  5,202
  5,405
  5,618
  5,839
  6,071
  6,315
  6,572
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  443
  92
  111
  132
  154
  178
  204
  231
  260
  290
  296
  328
  363
  401
  441
  482
  525
  569
  615
  663
  712
  763
  816
  871
  928
  988
  1,049
  1,114
  1,181
  1,250
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  892
  1,060
  1,263
  1,478
  1,702
  1,934
  2,170
  2,408
  2,645
  2,881
  3,089
  3,318
  3,545
  3,771
  3,995
  4,217
  4,439
  4,661
  4,884
  5,111
  5,342
  5,578
  5,821
  6,073
  6,333
  6,606
  6,888
  7,185
  7,496
  7,822
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  490
  589
  695
  806
  923
  1,042
  1,163
  1,284
  1,404
  1,522
  1,606
  1,719
  1,830
  1,938
  2,043
  2,148
  2,250
  2,352
  2,455
  2,558
  2,662
  2,768
  2,878
  2,991
  3,108
  3,230
  3,357
  3,491
  3,631
  3,778
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -443
  -108
  -128
  -150
  -172
  -195
  -218
  -242
  -265
  -290
  -310
  -332
  -363
  -401
  -441
  -482
  -525
  -569
  -615
  -663
  -712
  -763
  -816
  -871
  -928
  -988
  -1,049
  -1,114
  -1,181
  -1,250
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  47
  482
  567
  657
  751
  847
  944
  1,042
  1,139
  1,233
  1,295
  1,387
  1,467
  1,537
  1,603
  1,666
  1,726
  1,783
  1,840
  1,895
  1,950
  2,005
  2,062
  2,120
  2,180
  2,242
  2,308
  2,377
  2,450
  2,528
Discount rate, %
  14.20
  14.91
  15.66
  16.44
  17.26
  18.12
  19.03
  19.98
  20.98
  22.03
  23.13
  24.29
  25.50
  26.78
  28.12
  29.52
  31.00
  32.55
  34.17
  35.88
  37.68
  39.56
  41.54
  43.62
  45.80
  48.09
  50.49
  53.02
  55.67
  58.45
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  41
  365
  366
  357
  339
  312
  279
  243
  205
  168
  131
  102
  77
  55
  39
  27
  18
  11
  7
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  39.8
  32.2
  26.4
  21.9
  18.3
  15.5
  13.2
  11.3
  9.8
  8.6
  7.6
  6.7
  5.9
  5.3
  4.7
  4.2
  3.7
  3.3
  3.0
  2.7
  2.4
  2.2
  1.9
  1.7
  1.6
  1.4
  1.3
  1.2
  1.0

Cincinnati Bell Inc., along with its subsidiaries, provides diversified telecommunications and technology services. The Company operates through two segments: Entertainment and Communications, and IT Services and Hardware. Through its Entertainment and Communications segment, the Company provides high-speed data, video and voice solutions to consumers and businesses over fiber network and a legacy copper network. The IT Services and Hardware segments operates through its subsidiary, Cincinnati Bell Technology Solutions Inc. (CBTS), which is engaged in the sale and service of end-to-end communications and information technology (IT) systems and solutions for business customers across the United States. The Company has interest in CyrusOne Inc., which operates carrier-neutral data center colocation business.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cincinnati Bell Inc (CBB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 3
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book -2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 1.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -2.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -982.8%
Total Debt to Equity -989.3%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Return On Total Capital 10.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.1%
Return On Equity -48.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -44.9%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 42.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.2%
EBITDA Margin 35.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.2%
Operating Margin 6.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.2%
Net Profit Margin 8.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Effective Tax Rate 37.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.9%
Payout Ratio 9.8%

CBB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CBB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1378 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cincinnati Bell Inc. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Cincinnati Bell Inc. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CBB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 32.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.2%, whose default value for CBB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cincinnati Bell Inc, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cincinnati Bell Inc.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CBB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $40 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CBB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.2% for Cincinnati Bell Inc.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cincinnati Bell Inc. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CBB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CBB are equal to 118.9%.

Life of production assets of 7.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cincinnati Bell Inc operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CBB is equal to -6.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-75 million for Cincinnati Bell Inc - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 50.337 million for Cincinnati Bell Inc is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cincinnati Bell Inc at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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