Intrinsic value of Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao - CBD

Previous Close

$25.07

  Intrinsic Value

$52.07

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+108%

Previous close

$25.07

 
Intrinsic value

$52.07

 
Up/down potential

+108%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CBD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
Revenue, $m
  14,276
  15,106
  15,971
  16,875
  17,818
  18,804
  19,834
  20,911
  22,037
  23,216
  24,450
  25,741
  27,094
  28,510
  29,995
  31,550
  33,180
  34,889
  36,680
  38,559
  40,529
  42,595
  44,763
  47,037
  49,422
  51,926
  54,552
  57,308
  60,201
  63,236
Variable operating expenses, $m
  9,890
  10,461
  11,057
  11,679
  12,329
  13,008
  13,717
  14,459
  15,235
  16,047
  16,838
  17,728
  18,659
  19,635
  20,657
  21,728
  22,851
  24,028
  25,261
  26,555
  27,912
  29,335
  30,828
  32,394
  34,037
  35,761
  37,569
  39,468
  41,460
  43,550
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  3,824
  3,908
  3,994
  4,082
  4,172
  4,264
  4,358
  4,454
  4,552
  4,652
  4,754
  4,859
  4,966
  5,075
  5,186
  5,301
  5,417
  5,536
  5,658
  5,783
  5,910
  6,040
  6,173
  6,308
  6,447
  6,589
  6,734
  6,882
  7,034
  7,188
Total operating expenses, $m
  13,714
  14,369
  15,051
  15,761
  16,501
  17,272
  18,075
  18,913
  19,787
  20,699
  21,592
  22,587
  23,625
  24,710
  25,843
  27,029
  28,268
  29,564
  30,919
  32,338
  33,822
  35,375
  37,001
  38,702
  40,484
  42,350
  44,303
  46,350
  48,494
  50,738
Operating income, $m
  562
  736
  919
  1,113
  1,317
  1,532
  1,759
  1,998
  2,251
  2,518
  2,857
  3,155
  3,469
  3,801
  4,151
  4,521
  4,912
  5,325
  5,761
  6,221
  6,707
  7,221
  7,762
  8,335
  8,938
  9,576
  10,248
  10,958
  11,707
  12,498
EBITDA, $m
  864
  1,052
  1,251
  1,459
  1,679
  1,911
  2,156
  2,413
  2,685
  2,972
  3,275
  3,595
  3,932
  4,288
  4,664
  5,060
  5,479
  5,921
  6,388
  6,880
  7,400
  7,949
  8,527
  9,138
  9,783
  10,463
  11,181
  11,938
  12,736
  13,578
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  192
  276
  363
  454
  549
  648
  751
  859
  972
  1,090
  1,214
  1,343
  1,478
  1,620
  1,769
  1,924
  2,087
  2,258
  2,437
  2,625
  2,822
  3,029
  3,245
  3,472
  3,711
  3,961
  4,223
  4,499
  4,788
  5,091
Earnings before tax, $m
  370
  460
  556
  659
  768
  884
  1,008
  1,139
  1,279
  1,428
  1,644
  1,812
  1,991
  2,181
  2,383
  2,597
  2,825
  3,067
  3,324
  3,596
  3,885
  4,192
  4,517
  4,862
  5,228
  5,615
  6,025
  6,460
  6,920
  7,407
Tax expense, $m
  100
  124
  150
  178
  207
  239
  272
  308
  345
  385
  444
  489
  538
  589
  643
  701
  763
  828
  897
  971
  1,049
  1,132
  1,220
  1,313
  1,411
  1,516
  1,627
  1,744
  1,868
  2,000
Net income, $m
  270
  336
  406
  481
  561
  645
  736
  832
  934
  1,042
  1,200
  1,323
  1,453
  1,592
  1,739
  1,896
  2,062
  2,239
  2,426
  2,625
  2,836
  3,060
  3,298
  3,549
  3,816
  4,099
  4,398
  4,716
  5,051
  5,407

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  15,334
  16,225
  17,155
  18,125
  19,139
  20,197
  21,304
  22,461
  23,671
  24,937
  26,262
  27,649
  29,102
  30,623
  32,218
  33,888
  35,639
  37,475
  39,399
  41,417
  43,533
  45,752
  48,081
  50,523
  53,085
  55,774
  58,595
  61,555
  64,662
  67,923
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  15,334
  16,225
  17,155
  18,125
  19,139
  20,197
  21,304
  22,461
  23,671
  24,937
  26,262
  27,649
  29,102
  30,623
  32,218
  33,888
  35,639
  37,475
  39,399
  41,417
  43,533
  45,752
  48,081
  50,523
  53,085
  55,774
  58,595
  61,555
  64,662
  67,923
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
  0.931
Average production assets, $m
  3,269
  3,459
  3,657
  3,864
  4,080
  4,306
  4,542
  4,789
  5,047
  5,316
  5,599
  5,895
  6,204
  6,529
  6,869
  7,225
  7,598
  7,990
  8,400
  8,830
  9,281
  9,754
  10,251
  10,771
  11,318
  11,891
  12,492
  13,124
  13,786
  14,481
Working capital, $m
  571
  604
  639
  675
  713
  752
  793
  836
  881
  929
  978
  1,030
  1,084
  1,140
  1,200
  1,262
  1,327
  1,396
  1,467
  1,542
  1,621
  1,704
  1,791
  1,881
  1,977
  2,077
  2,182
  2,292
  2,408
  2,529
Total debt, $m
  2,047
  2,691
  3,363
  4,064
  4,797
  5,562
  6,362
  7,199
  8,074
  8,989
  9,947
  10,950
  12,000
  13,101
  14,253
  15,461
  16,727
  18,054
  19,445
  20,904
  22,434
  24,039
  25,722
  27,488
  29,341
  31,284
  33,324
  35,464
  37,711
  40,068
Total liabilities, $m
  11,087
  11,731
  12,403
  13,105
  13,837
  14,603
  15,403
  16,239
  17,114
  18,029
  18,987
  19,990
  21,041
  22,141
  23,293
  24,501
  25,767
  27,094
  28,485
  29,944
  31,474
  33,079
  34,762
  36,528
  38,381
  40,325
  42,364
  44,505
  46,751
  49,108
Total equity, $m
  4,248
  4,494
  4,752
  5,021
  5,301
  5,595
  5,901
  6,222
  6,557
  6,907
  7,274
  7,659
  8,061
  8,483
  8,924
  9,387
  9,872
  10,380
  10,913
  11,472
  12,059
  12,673
  13,318
  13,995
  14,705
  15,449
  16,231
  17,051
  17,911
  18,815
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  15,335
  16,225
  17,155
  18,126
  19,138
  20,198
  21,304
  22,461
  23,671
  24,936
  26,261
  27,649
  29,102
  30,624
  32,217
  33,888
  35,639
  37,474
  39,398
  41,416
  43,533
  45,752
  48,080
  50,523
  53,086
  55,774
  58,595
  61,556
  64,662
  67,923
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.480
  0.600
  0.710
  0.810
  0.900
  0.990
  1.080
  1.160
  1.230
  1.300
  1.370
  1.430
  1.490
  1.540
  1.600
  1.650
  1.690
  1.740
  1.780
  1.820
  1.860
  1.900
  1.930
  1.960
  2.000
  2.020
  2.050
  2.080
  2.110
  2.130
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  270
  336
  406
  481
  561
  645
  736
  832
  934
  1,042
  1,200
  1,323
  1,453
  1,592
  1,739
  1,896
  2,062
  2,239
  2,426
  2,625
  2,836
  3,060
  3,298
  3,549
  3,816
  4,099
  4,398
  4,716
  5,051
  5,407
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  302
  316
  331
  346
  363
  379
  397
  415
  435
  455
  418
  440
  463
  487
  513
  539
  567
  596
  627
  659
  693
  728
  765
  804
  845
  887
  932
  979
  1,029
  1,081
Funds from operations, $m
  572
  652
  737
  827
  923
  1,025
  1,133
  1,247
  1,368
  1,497
  1,618
  1,763
  1,916
  2,079
  2,252
  2,435
  2,629
  2,835
  3,053
  3,284
  3,529
  3,788
  4,063
  4,353
  4,661
  4,986
  5,331
  5,695
  6,080
  6,488
Change in working capital, $m
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
Cash from operations, $m
  540
  619
  702
  791
  885
  985
  1,091
  1,204
  1,323
  1,450
  1,568
  1,711
  1,862
  2,022
  2,193
  2,373
  2,564
  2,767
  2,981
  3,209
  3,450
  3,705
  3,976
  4,262
  4,565
  4,886
  5,226
  5,585
  5,964
  6,366
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -230
  -244
  -258
  -273
  -288
  -305
  -321
  -339
  -357
  -377
  -397
  -418
  -440
  -463
  -487
  -513
  -539
  -567
  -596
  -627
  -659
  -693
  -728
  -765
  -804
  -845
  -887
  -932
  -979
  -1,029
New CAPEX, $m
  -188
  -190
  -198
  -207
  -216
  -226
  -236
  -247
  -258
  -270
  -283
  -296
  -310
  -324
  -340
  -356
  -373
  -391
  -410
  -430
  -451
  -473
  -496
  -521
  -546
  -573
  -601
  -631
  -662
  -695
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -418
  -434
  -456
  -480
  -504
  -531
  -557
  -586
  -615
  -647
  -680
  -714
  -750
  -787
  -827
  -869
  -912
  -958
  -1,006
  -1,057
  -1,110
  -1,166
  -1,224
  -1,286
  -1,350
  -1,418
  -1,488
  -1,563
  -1,641
  -1,724
Free cash flow, $m
  123
  185
  246
  311
  381
  455
  534
  618
  708
  803
  889
  997
  1,113
  1,235
  1,365
  1,504
  1,652
  1,808
  1,975
  2,152
  2,340
  2,540
  2,752
  2,976
  3,215
  3,468
  3,737
  4,021
  4,323
  4,642
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  626
  644
  672
  702
  733
  765
  800
  836
  875
  915
  958
  1,003
  1,050
  1,100
  1,153
  1,208
  1,266
  1,327
  1,391
  1,459
  1,530
  1,605
  1,683
  1,766
  1,853
  1,944
  2,040
  2,140
  2,246
  2,357
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  626
  644
  672
  702
  733
  765
  800
  836
  875
  915
  958
  1,003
  1,050
  1,100
  1,153
  1,208
  1,266
  1,327
  1,391
  1,459
  1,530
  1,605
  1,683
  1,766
  1,853
  1,944
  2,040
  2,140
  2,246
  2,357
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  749
  829
  918
  1,013
  1,114
  1,221
  1,334
  1,455
  1,583
  1,719
  1,847
  2,000
  2,163
  2,335
  2,518
  2,712
  2,917
  3,135
  3,366
  3,611
  3,870
  4,144
  4,435
  4,742
  5,068
  5,412
  5,776
  6,162
  6,569
  7,000
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -233
  -247
  -257
  -269
  -281
  -293
  -306
  -320
  -335
  -351
  -367
  -384
  -402
  -421
  -442
  -463
  -485
  -508
  -533
  -559
  -586
  -615
  -645
  -677
  -710
  -745
  -781
  -820
  -861
  -903
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  516
  582
  661
  744
  833
  927
  1,028
  1,134
  1,248
  1,368
  1,480
  1,616
  1,760
  1,914
  2,076
  2,249
  2,432
  2,627
  2,833
  3,052
  3,284
  3,529
  3,790
  4,066
  4,358
  4,667
  4,995
  5,342
  5,708
  6,096
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  494
  533
  575
  613
  646
  673
  694
  709
  717
  717
  703
  690
  669
  642
  610
  572
  529
  484
  436
  388
  340
  293
  248
  207
  170
  136
  107
  83
  62
  46
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao, directly or through its subsidiaries, is engaged in the retail of food, clothing, home appliances, electronics and other items through its chain of hypermarkets, supermarkets, specialized stores and department stores principally under the trade names Pao de Acucar, Minuto Pao de Acucar, Extra Hiper, Extra Super, Minimercado Extra, Assai an the neighborhood shopping mall brand Conviva. The Company's segments include Retail, and Cash and carry segment. The Company's Retail segment includes the banners Pao de Acucar, Minuto Pao de Acucar, Extra Hiper, Extra Supermercado, Minimercado Extra, Posto Extra, Drogaria Extra and GPA Malls & Properties. Its Cash & Carry segment includes the brand Assai. The Company is engaged in operations of retail stores located in approximately 20 states and the Federal District of Brazil.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao (CBD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -43.8
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -16.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -7.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -22.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.7
LT Debt to Equity 29.5%
Total Debt to Equity 59.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Return On Total Capital -2.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Return On Equity -4.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 23%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.3%
EBITDA Margin 2.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Operating Margin 2.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Net Profit Margin -1.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Effective Tax Rate -46.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Payout Ratio -0.7%

CBD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CBD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $13481 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CBD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CBD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CBD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 69.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $3742 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CBD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 13.5% for Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CBD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CBD are equal to 22.9%.

Life of production assets of 13.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CBD is equal to 4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4014.49713078 million for Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 266.639 million for Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.7 billion.

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