Intrinsic value of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store - CBRL

Previous Close

$151.11

  Intrinsic Value

$98.17

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-35%

Previous close

$151.11

 
Intrinsic value

$98.17

 
Up/down potential

-35%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CBRL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,985
  3,053
  3,132
  3,220
  3,317
  3,424
  3,541
  3,667
  3,803
  3,949
  4,105
  4,272
  4,449
  4,638
  4,838
  5,050
  5,275
  5,512
  5,763
  6,027
  6,307
  6,601
  6,912
  7,239
  7,584
  7,947
  8,329
  8,731
  9,153
  9,598
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,698
  2,760
  2,831
  2,911
  2,999
  3,096
  3,201
  3,315
  3,438
  3,570
  3,711
  3,862
  4,022
  4,193
  4,374
  4,565
  4,768
  4,983
  5,209
  5,449
  5,701
  5,968
  6,248
  6,544
  6,856
  7,184
  7,529
  7,892
  8,275
  8,677
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,698
  2,760
  2,831
  2,911
  2,999
  3,096
  3,201
  3,315
  3,438
  3,570
  3,711
  3,862
  4,022
  4,193
  4,374
  4,565
  4,768
  4,983
  5,209
  5,449
  5,701
  5,968
  6,248
  6,544
  6,856
  7,184
  7,529
  7,892
  8,275
  8,677
Operating income, $m
  287
  293
  301
  309
  318
  329
  340
  352
  365
  379
  394
  410
  427
  445
  464
  485
  506
  529
  553
  579
  605
  634
  664
  695
  728
  763
  800
  838
  879
  921
EBITDA, $m
  398
  407
  417
  429
  442
  456
  472
  488
  507
  526
  547
  569
  593
  618
  644
  673
  703
  734
  768
  803
  840
  879
  921
  964
  1,010
  1,059
  1,109
  1,163
  1,219
  1,278
Interest expense (income), $m
  13
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  106
  112
  119
  126
  134
Earnings before tax, $m
  265
  270
  277
  284
  292
  300
  309
  319
  330
  342
  354
  367
  381
  396
  412
  429
  446
  465
  485
  506
  528
  551
  576
  602
  629
  657
  687
  719
  752
  788
Tax expense, $m
  72
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  84
  86
  89
  92
  96
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  170
  177
  186
  194
  203
  213
Net income, $m
  193
  197
  202
  207
  213
  219
  226
  233
  241
  249
  258
  268
  278
  289
  301
  313
  326
  340
  354
  369
  385
  402
  420
  439
  459
  480
  502
  525
  549
  575

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,552
  1,588
  1,629
  1,674
  1,725
  1,781
  1,841
  1,907
  1,978
  2,054
  2,135
  2,222
  2,314
  2,412
  2,516
  2,626
  2,743
  2,866
  2,997
  3,134
  3,280
  3,433
  3,594
  3,765
  3,944
  4,132
  4,331
  4,540
  4,760
  4,991
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,552
  1,588
  1,629
  1,674
  1,725
  1,781
  1,841
  1,907
  1,978
  2,054
  2,135
  2,222
  2,314
  2,412
  2,516
  2,626
  2,743
  2,866
  2,997
  3,134
  3,280
  3,433
  3,594
  3,765
  3,944
  4,132
  4,331
  4,540
  4,760
  4,991
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.924
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
Average production assets, $m
  1,110
  1,136
  1,165
  1,198
  1,234
  1,274
  1,317
  1,364
  1,415
  1,469
  1,527
  1,589
  1,655
  1,725
  1,800
  1,879
  1,962
  2,050
  2,144
  2,242
  2,346
  2,456
  2,571
  2,693
  2,821
  2,956
  3,098
  3,248
  3,405
  3,570
Working capital, $m
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
Total debt, $m
  419
  442
  469
  498
  531
  566
  605
  647
  693
  742
  794
  849
  909
  971
  1,038
  1,109
  1,184
  1,263
  1,347
  1,435
  1,529
  1,627
  1,731
  1,840
  1,955
  2,076
  2,204
  2,338
  2,479
  2,627
Total liabilities, $m
  996
  1,019
  1,046
  1,075
  1,108
  1,143
  1,182
  1,224
  1,270
  1,318
  1,371
  1,426
  1,485
  1,548
  1,615
  1,686
  1,761
  1,840
  1,924
  2,012
  2,106
  2,204
  2,308
  2,417
  2,532
  2,653
  2,781
  2,915
  3,056
  3,204
Total equity, $m
  556
  568
  583
  599
  618
  638
  659
  683
  708
  735
  764
  795
  828
  863
  901
  940
  982
  1,026
  1,073
  1,122
  1,174
  1,229
  1,287
  1,348
  1,412
  1,479
  1,551
  1,625
  1,704
  1,787
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,552
  1,587
  1,629
  1,674
  1,726
  1,781
  1,841
  1,907
  1,978
  2,053
  2,135
  2,221
  2,313
  2,411
  2,516
  2,626
  2,743
  2,866
  2,997
  3,134
  3,280
  3,433
  3,595
  3,765
  3,944
  4,132
  4,332
  4,540
  4,760
  4,991
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.750
  0.780
  0.800
  0.830
  0.860
  0.890
  0.920
  0.950
  0.980
  1.010
  1.040
  1.070
  1.100
  1.130
  1.150
  1.180
  1.210
  1.230
  1.260
  1.280
  1.300
  1.320
  1.340
  1.370
  1.380
  1.400
  1.420
  1.440
  1.450
  1.470
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  193
  197
  202
  207
  213
  219
  226
  233
  241
  249
  258
  268
  278
  289
  301
  313
  326
  340
  354
  369
  385
  402
  420
  439
  459
  480
  502
  525
  549
  575
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  111
  114
  116
  120
  123
  127
  132
  136
  141
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  224
  235
  246
  257
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
  341
  357
Funds from operations, $m
  304
  311
  319
  327
  336
  346
  358
  370
  382
  396
  411
  427
  444
  462
  481
  501
  522
  545
  568
  594
  620
  648
  677
  708
  741
  775
  812
  850
  890
  932
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Cash from operations, $m
  304
  310
  318
  326
  335
  345
  356
  368
  381
  394
  409
  425
  442
  459
  478
  498
  519
  542
  565
  590
  616
  644
  673
  704
  737
  771
  807
  845
  884
  926
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -109
  -111
  -114
  -116
  -120
  -123
  -127
  -132
  -136
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -180
  -188
  -196
  -205
  -214
  -224
  -235
  -246
  -257
  -269
  -282
  -296
  -310
  -325
  -341
New CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -157
  -165
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -130
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -179
  -187
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -225
  -236
  -247
  -259
  -271
  -284
  -298
  -312
  -328
  -345
  -362
  -379
  -397
  -417
  -438
  -460
  -482
  -506
Free cash flow, $m
  174
  174
  175
  177
  179
  182
  185
  189
  194
  199
  204
  210
  217
  224
  231
  239
  248
  257
  267
  277
  288
  300
  312
  325
  339
  354
  369
  385
  402
  420
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  19
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  128
  134
  141
  148
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  19
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  128
  134
  141
  148
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  193
  196
  201
  206
  211
  218
  224
  231
  239
  247
  256
  266
  276
  287
  298
  310
  323
  336
  351
  366
  382
  398
  416
  435
  454
  475
  497
  519
  543
  569
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
Cash available for distribution, $m
  182
  184
  186
  190
  193
  198
  202
  208
  214
  220
  227
  235
  243
  251
  261
  271
  281
  292
  304
  316
  329
  343
  358
  374
  390
  407
  425
  445
  465
  486
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  175
  168
  162
  156
  150
  143
  137
  130
  123
  115
  108
  100
  92
  84
  77
  69
  61
  54
  47
  40
  34
  28
  23
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. is engaged in the operation and development of the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept (Cracker Barrel). The Company's segments include Restaurant and Retail. As of September 19, 2016, the Company operated 640 Cracker Barrel stores in 43 states. The format of its stores consists of a rustic old country-store design offering a restaurant menu that features home-style country food and a range of decorative and functional items, such as rocking chairs, holiday and seasonal gifts and toys, apparel, cookware and foods. Its restaurants offer home-style country cooking featuring of its own recipes. Its restaurants serve breakfast, lunch and dinner. Its breakfast items include juices, eggs, pancakes, grits, and a range of biscuit specialties. Its lunch and dinner items include country ham, chicken and dumplings, chicken fried chicken, meatloaf, fresh side items and specialty items, such as pinto beans and turnip greens.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 6.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 73.4%
Total Debt to Equity 73.4%
Interest Coverage 24
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 14%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
Return On Total Capital 21.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.8%
Return On Equity 37.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.7%
Asset Turnover 1.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.4%
EBITDA Margin 13.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Operating Margin 10.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Net Profit Margin 6.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Effective Tax Rate 32.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.8%
Payout Ratio 97.5%

CBRL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CBRL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2926 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cracker Barrel Old Country Store. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CBRL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CBRL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CBRL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CBRL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CBRL stock is equal to 0.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CBRL are equal to 37.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cracker Barrel Old Country Store operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CBRL is equal to 1.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $545 million for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24 million for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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