Intrinsic value of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store - CBRL

Previous Close

$171.37

  Intrinsic Value

$106.17

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-38%

Previous close

$171.37

 
Intrinsic value

$106.17

 
Up/down potential

-38%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CBRL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.00
  3.20
  3.38
  3.54
  3.69
  3.82
  3.94
  4.04
  4.14
  4.23
  4.30
  4.37
  4.44
  4.49
  4.54
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.90
  4.91
Revenue, $m
  3,014
  3,111
  3,216
  3,330
  3,452
  3,584
  3,725
  3,876
  4,036
  4,207
  4,388
  4,580
  4,783
  4,998
  5,225
  5,464
  5,717
  5,984
  6,265
  6,562
  6,874
  7,203
  7,549
  7,913
  8,296
  8,698
  9,122
  9,568
  10,036
  10,528
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,725
  2,812
  2,907
  3,010
  3,121
  3,240
  3,368
  3,504
  3,649
  3,803
  3,967
  4,140
  4,324
  4,518
  4,723
  4,940
  5,169
  5,410
  5,664
  5,932
  6,214
  6,511
  6,824
  7,153
  7,499
  7,863
  8,246
  8,649
  9,073
  9,518
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,725
  2,812
  2,907
  3,010
  3,121
  3,240
  3,368
  3,504
  3,649
  3,803
  3,967
  4,140
  4,324
  4,518
  4,723
  4,940
  5,169
  5,410
  5,664
  5,932
  6,214
  6,511
  6,824
  7,153
  7,499
  7,863
  8,246
  8,649
  9,073
  9,518
Operating income, $m
  289
  299
  309
  320
  331
  344
  358
  372
  387
  404
  421
  440
  459
  480
  502
  525
  549
  574
  601
  630
  660
  691
  725
  760
  796
  835
  876
  918
  963
  1,011
EBITDA, $m
  378
  390
  404
  418
  433
  450
  468
  487
  507
  528
  551
  575
  600
  627
  656
  686
  718
  751
  786
  824
  863
  904
  948
  993
  1,041
  1,092
  1,145
  1,201
  1,260
  1,322
Interest expense (income), $m
  13
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  126
  133
  141
  150
Earnings before tax, $m
  268
  275
  284
  293
  303
  313
  324
  336
  349
  362
  377
  392
  408
  425
  443
  462
  482
  503
  525
  548
  573
  599
  626
  655
  685
  717
  750
  785
  822
  861
Tax expense, $m
  72
  74
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
Net income, $m
  195
  201
  207
  214
  221
  229
  237
  245
  255
  264
  275
  286
  298
  310
  323
  337
  352
  367
  383
  400
  418
  437
  457
  478
  500
  523
  548
  573
  600
  629

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,567
  1,618
  1,672
  1,731
  1,795
  1,864
  1,937
  2,016
  2,099
  2,188
  2,282
  2,382
  2,487
  2,599
  2,717
  2,842
  2,973
  3,112
  3,258
  3,412
  3,575
  3,746
  3,925
  4,115
  4,314
  4,523
  4,744
  4,975
  5,219
  5,475
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,567
  1,618
  1,672
  1,731
  1,795
  1,864
  1,937
  2,016
  2,099
  2,188
  2,282
  2,382
  2,487
  2,599
  2,717
  2,842
  2,973
  3,112
  3,258
  3,412
  3,575
  3,746
  3,925
  4,115
  4,314
  4,523
  4,744
  4,975
  5,219
  5,475
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.924
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
  1.923
Average production assets, $m
  1,121
  1,157
  1,196
  1,239
  1,284
  1,333
  1,386
  1,442
  1,502
  1,565
  1,632
  1,704
  1,779
  1,859
  1,944
  2,033
  2,127
  2,226
  2,331
  2,441
  2,557
  2,679
  2,808
  2,943
  3,086
  3,236
  3,393
  3,559
  3,733
  3,917
Working capital, $m
  -184
  -190
  -196
  -203
  -211
  -219
  -227
  -236
  -246
  -257
  -268
  -279
  -292
  -305
  -319
  -333
  -349
  -365
  -382
  -400
  -419
  -439
  -460
  -483
  -506
  -531
  -556
  -584
  -612
  -642
Total debt, $m
  429
  461
  496
  534
  575
  619
  666
  717
  770
  827
  887
  952
  1,019
  1,091
  1,167
  1,247
  1,331
  1,420
  1,514
  1,613
  1,717
  1,827
  1,943
  2,064
  2,192
  2,327
  2,468
  2,617
  2,773
  2,938
Total liabilities, $m
  1,006
  1,038
  1,074
  1,112
  1,153
  1,197
  1,244
  1,294
  1,348
  1,404
  1,465
  1,529
  1,597
  1,669
  1,744
  1,824
  1,909
  1,998
  2,092
  2,191
  2,295
  2,405
  2,520
  2,642
  2,770
  2,904
  3,045
  3,194
  3,351
  3,515
Total equity, $m
  561
  579
  599
  620
  643
  667
  694
  722
  751
  783
  817
  853
  890
  930
  973
  1,017
  1,064
  1,114
  1,166
  1,222
  1,280
  1,341
  1,405
  1,473
  1,544
  1,619
  1,698
  1,781
  1,868
  1,960
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,567
  1,617
  1,673
  1,732
  1,796
  1,864
  1,938
  2,016
  2,099
  2,187
  2,282
  2,382
  2,487
  2,599
  2,717
  2,841
  2,973
  3,112
  3,258
  3,413
  3,575
  3,746
  3,925
  4,115
  4,314
  4,523
  4,743
  4,975
  5,219
  5,475
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.760
  0.800
  0.830
  0.860
  0.890
  0.930
  0.960
  0.990
  1.020
  1.060
  1.090
  1.120
  1.140
  1.170
  1.200
  1.230
  1.250
  1.270
  1.300
  1.320
  1.340
  1.360
  1.380
  1.400
  1.420
  1.440
  1.450
  1.470
  1.480
  1.500
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  195
  201
  207
  214
  221
  229
  237
  245
  255
  264
  275
  286
  298
  310
  323
  337
  352
  367
  383
  400
  418
  437
  457
  478
  500
  523
  548
  573
  600
  629
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  89
  92
  95
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  130
  135
  141
  148
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
  269
  282
  296
  311
Funds from operations, $m
  284
  293
  302
  312
  323
  334
  347
  360
  374
  389
  404
  421
  439
  458
  477
  498
  520
  544
  568
  594
  621
  650
  680
  712
  745
  780
  817
  856
  896
  939
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
Cash from operations, $m
  290
  299
  309
  319
  330
  342
  355
  369
  384
  399
  415
  433
  451
  471
  491
  513
  536
  560
  585
  612
  640
  670
  701
  734
  768
  805
  843
  883
  925
  969
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -95
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -234
  -245
  -257
  -269
  -282
  -296
New CAPEX, $m
  -32
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -183
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -118
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -232
  -243
  -255
  -268
  -282
  -295
  -310
  -325
  -342
  -358
  -376
  -395
  -415
  -435
  -456
  -479
Free cash flow, $m
  171
  174
  178
  182
  186
  191
  197
  203
  209
  216
  224
  232
  241
  250
  259
  269
  280
  292
  304
  317
  330
  345
  360
  375
  392
  410
  428
  448
  468
  490
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
  122
  128
  134
  141
  149
  156
  164
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
  122
  128
  134
  141
  149
  156
  164
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  200
  206
  213
  220
  227
  235
  244
  253
  263
  273
  284
  296
  308
  321
  335
  350
  365
  381
  398
  416
  434
  454
  475
  497
  520
  544
  570
  597
  625
  654
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  183
  188
  193
  199
  204
  211
  218
  225
  233
  242
  251
  260
  271
  281
  293
  305
  318
  331
  345
  361
  376
  393
  411
  429
  449
  469
  491
  514
  538
  563
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  176
  172
  168
  163
  158
  153
  147
  141
  134
  127
  119
  111
  103
  94
  86
  77
  69
  61
  53
  46
  39
  33
  27
  22
  17
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. is engaged in the operation and development of the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept (Cracker Barrel). The Company's segments include Restaurant and Retail. As of September 19, 2016, the Company operated 640 Cracker Barrel stores in 43 states. The format of its stores consists of a rustic old country-store design offering a restaurant menu that features home-style country food and a range of decorative and functional items, such as rocking chairs, holiday and seasonal gifts and toys, apparel, cookware and foods. Its restaurants offer home-style country cooking featuring of its own recipes. Its restaurants serve breakfast, lunch and dinner. Its breakfast items include juices, eggs, pancakes, grits, and a range of biscuit specialties. Its lunch and dinner items include country ham, chicken and dumplings, chicken fried chicken, meatloaf, fresh side items and specialty items, such as pinto beans and turnip greens.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.4
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 7.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 73.4%
Total Debt to Equity 73.4%
Interest Coverage 24
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 14%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
Return On Total Capital 21.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.8%
Return On Equity 37.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.7%
Asset Turnover 1.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.4%
EBITDA Margin 13.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Operating Margin 10.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Net Profit Margin 6.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Effective Tax Rate 32.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.8%
Payout Ratio 97.5%

CBRL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CBRL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2926.289 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cracker Barrel Old Country Store. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CBRL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CBRL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CBRL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CBRL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CBRL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CBRL are equal to 37.2%.

Life of production assets of 12.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cracker Barrel Old Country Store operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CBRL is equal to -6.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $544.507 million for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.004 million for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Cracker Barrel earnings and revenue beat   [08:17AM  MarketWatch]
▶ Top NasdaqGS Dividend Payers   [Feb-12-18 08:02AM  Simply Wall St.]

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