Intrinsic value of Chase - CCF

Previous Close

$122.70

  Intrinsic Value

$118.44

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-3%

Previous close

$122.70

 
Intrinsic value

$118.44

 
Up/down potential

-3%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of CCF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.17
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
Revenue, $m
  268
  285
  301
  319
  337
  356
  376
  397
  418
  441
  465
  490
  516
  543
  571
  601
  633
  665
  700
  736
  774
  813
  855
  898
  944
  992
  1,042
  1,095
  1,150
  1,208
Variable operating expenses, $m
  88
  92
  97
  102
  108
  113
  119
  125
  131
  138
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  193
  203
  214
  225
  236
  248
  261
  274
  288
  303
  318
  334
  351
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  113
  116
  118
  121
  124
  126
  129
  132
  135
  138
  141
  144
  147
  151
  154
  157
  161
  164
  168
  172
  175
  179
  183
  187
  191
  195
  200
  204
  209
  213
Total operating expenses, $m
  201
  208
  215
  223
  232
  239
  248
  257
  266
  276
  276
  286
  297
  309
  320
  332
  345
  357
  371
  386
  400
  415
  431
  448
  465
  483
  503
  522
  543
  564
Operating income, $m
  67
  76
  86
  95
  106
  116
  128
  140
  152
  165
  189
  203
  219
  235
  252
  270
  288
  308
  329
  351
  374
  398
  424
  450
  479
  509
  540
  573
  608
  644
EBITDA, $m
  90
  100
  110
  121
  132
  144
  156
  169
  183
  197
  212
  228
  244
  262
  280
  299
  320
  341
  363
  387
  412
  438
  466
  495
  525
  558
  591
  627
  665
  704
Interest expense (income), $m
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
Earnings before tax, $m
  67
  76
  85
  95
  105
  116
  127
  138
  151
  164
  187
  201
  216
  232
  249
  267
  285
  304
  325
  346
  369
  393
  418
  445
  473
  502
  533
  566
  600
  636
Tax expense, $m
  18
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  51
  54
  58
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  88
  94
  100
  106
  113
  120
  128
  136
  144
  153
  162
  172
Net income, $m
  49
  56
  62
  69
  77
  84
  93
  101
  110
  120
  137
  147
  158
  170
  182
  195
  208
  222
  237
  253
  269
  287
  305
  325
  345
  366
  389
  413
  438
  464

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  249
  264
  280
  296
  313
  331
  349
  369
  389
  410
  432
  455
  479
  505
  531
  559
  588
  618
  650
  684
  719
  756
  794
  835
  877
  922
  969
  1,018
  1,069
  1,123
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  249
  264
  280
  296
  313
  331
  349
  369
  389
  410
  432
  455
  479
  505
  531
  559
  588
  618
  650
  684
  719
  756
  794
  835
  877
  922
  969
  1,018
  1,069
  1,123
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.076
  1.080
  1.075
  1.078
  1.077
  1.076
  1.077
  1.076
  1.075
  1.076
  1.076
  1.077
  1.077
  1.075
  1.075
  1.075
  1.077
  1.076
  1.077
  1.076
  1.076
  1.075
  1.077
  1.075
  1.076
  1.076
  1.075
  1.076
  1.076
  1.076
Average production assets, $m
  133
  141
  149
  157
  166
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
  242
  255
  268
  282
  297
  313
  329
  346
  363
  382
  402
  422
  444
  466
  490
  515
  541
  568
  597
Working capital, $m
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
Total debt, $m
  3
  6
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  25
  29
  33
  37
  41
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  72
  78
  84
  91
  98
  105
  112
  120
  129
  137
  147
  156
  166
Total liabilities, $m
  47
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  149
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
  200
  210
Total equity, $m
  203
  215
  228
  241
  255
  269
  284
  300
  316
  333
  351
  370
  390
  410
  432
  454
  478
  503
  529
  556
  584
  614
  646
  679
  713
  749
  787
  827
  869
  913
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  250
  264
  280
  296
  314
  331
  349
  369
  389
  410
  432
  455
  480
  504
  531
  559
  588
  619
  651
  684
  718
  755
  795
  835
  877
  921
  968
  1,017
  1,069
  1,123
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.010
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813
  0.813

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  49
  56
  62
  69
  77
  84
  93
  101
  110
  120
  137
  147
  158
  170
  182
  195
  208
  222
  237
  253
  269
  287
  305
  325
  345
  366
  389
  413
  438
  464
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
Funds from operations, $m
  72
  79
  87
  95
  103
  112
  121
  130
  141
  151
  160
  171
  184
  196
  210
  224
  239
  255
  272
  289
  308
  327
  348
  369
  392
  415
  441
  467
  495
  524
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  71
  79
  86
  94
  102
  111
  120
  130
  140
  150
  159
  170
  182
  195
  209
  223
  238
  254
  270
  288
  306
  325
  346
  367
  390
  413
  438
  465
  492
  521
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
New CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -86
Free cash flow, $m
  51
  57
  64
  71
  78
  85
  93
  101
  109
  118
  125
  135
  145
  156
  168
  180
  193
  206
  220
  235
  251
  268
  285
  303
  323
  343
  365
  387
  411
  436
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  54
  60
  67
  74
  81
  88
  96
  104
  113
  122
  129
  139
  150
  161
  173
  185
  198
  212
  226
  242
  258
  274
  292
  311
  331
  351
  373
  396
  420
  446
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  20
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
Cash available for distribution, $m
  62
  48
  54
  60
  67
  74
  81
  89
  97
  105
  111
  120
  130
  140
  151
  163
  175
  187
  200
  214
  229
  245
  261
  278
  296
  315
  335
  356
  379
  402
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  60
  44
  47
  50
  52
  54
  55
  55
  56
  55
  53
  51
  50
  47
  44
  41
  38
  34
  31
  27
  24
  20
  17
  14
  12
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Chase Corporation is engaged in manufacturing of protective materials for reliability applications. The Company's operating segments include industrial materials segment and construction materials segment. The Industrial Materials segment includes specified products that are used in, or integrated into, another company's product, with demand typically dependent upon general economic conditions. The industrial material includes insulating and conducting materials for the manufacture of electrical and telephone wire and cable, electrical splicing, and terminating and repair tapes, which are marketed to wire and cable manufacturers. The Construction Materials segment consists of project-oriented product offerings that are sold and used as Chase branded products. The Company's principal products are specialty tapes, laminates, sealants, coatings and chemical intermediates. Its manufacturing facilities are located at O'Hara Township, Pennsylvania and Blawnox, Pennsylvania facilities.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Chase (CCF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.3
Price to Sales 4.5
Price to Book 5.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 21.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.5%
Return On Total Capital 19.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Return On Equity 21.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 42.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.7%
EBITDA Margin 37.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.4%
Operating Margin 24.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 24.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.8%
Net Profit Margin 16.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Effective Tax Rate 31.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.9%
Payout Ratio 16.7%

CCF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CCF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $253 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Chase. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Chase. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CCF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CCF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Chase, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Chase.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CCF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 32.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $111 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CCF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Chase.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Chase. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CCF stock is equal to 0.9%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CCF are equal to 49.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Chase operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CCF is equal to 4.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $211 million for Chase - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 9 million for Chase is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Chase at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Chase: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-05-18 05:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ Chase Corporation Divests Structural Composites Business   [Apr-18-18 04:33PM  Business Wire]
▶ Chase posts 2Q profit   [Apr-04-18 04:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ Gabelli & Companys 9th Specialty Chemicals Conference   [Feb-15-18 07:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Chase posts 1Q profit   [Jan-08-18 04:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chase Corp. : November 28, 2017   [Nov-28-17 11:59AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chase Corp. : November 15, 2017   [Nov-15-17 11:39AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Chase posts 4Q profit   [Oct-30-17 05:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chase Corp. : October 13, 2017   [Oct-13-17 10:36AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chase Corp. : August 3, 2017   [Aug-03-17 07:55PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chase Corp. : July 24, 2017   [Jul-24-17 02:41PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chase Corp. : July 11, 2017   [Jul-11-17 02:14PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Chase posts 3Q profit   [Jul-05-17 09:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ Chase Corp. Value Analysis (NYSE MKT:CCF) : June 29, 2017   [Jun-29-17 03:29PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chase Corp. : May 12, 2017   [May-12-17 03:46PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chase Corp. : May 1, 2017   [May-01-17 03:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chase Corp. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 04:06PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Chase posts 2Q profit   [Apr-05-17 04:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chase Corp. : January 19, 2017   [Jan-19-17 12:34PM  Capital Cube]
▶ JPMorgan at 52-Week High After Q4 EPS Soars 30%   [Jan-13-17 03:38PM  at Investopedia]
▶ Video-Investor Presentation for Chase Corp.   [Jan-05-17 09:47AM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chase Corp. : December 19, 2016   [Dec-19-16 11:29AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Chase Sapphire Card Perks Costing the Company Millions   [Dec-08-16 04:29PM  at Investopedia]
▶ Should You Buy CBIZ, Inc. (CBZ)?   [Dec-02-16 06:08AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chase Corp. : November 30, 2016   [Nov-30-16 12:06PM  Capital Cube]
▶ JPMorgan Chase Is Done with Drugstore ATMs   [Oct-04-16 10:18AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Should Jaime Dimon Tell Clients to Raise Wages? (JPM)   [Aug-25-16 10:00AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Video-Investor Presentation for Chase Corp.   [Aug-23-16 04:25PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ VTSMX: Top 3 Mutual Fund Holders of JP Morgan Chase (JPM)   [Aug-11-16 05:27PM  at Investopedia]
▶ William Merritt Chase: A Modern Master Review: Between Old and New   [Aug-10-16 10:37PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Corporate Document-Q2 2016 Earnings Release for Chase Corp.   [Aug-05-16 04:06PM  at Company Spotlight]
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