Intrinsic value of Chase - CCF

Previous Close

$117.60

  Intrinsic Value

$182.02

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+55%

Previous close

$117.60

 
Intrinsic value

$182.02

 
Up/down potential

+55%

 
Rating

str. buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CCF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.30
  13.10
  12.29
  11.56
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.49
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.22
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
Revenue, $m
  253
  286
  321
  358
  398
  439
  481
  526
  573
  622
  672
  725
  779
  836
  895
  957
  1,020
  1,087
  1,156
  1,228
  1,302
  1,380
  1,462
  1,546
  1,635
  1,727
  1,823
  1,924
  2,029
  2,139
  2,255
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  57
  64
  70
  77
  85
  93
  101
  109
  118
  127
  132
  142
  152
  163
  174
  186
  198
  210
  223
  237
  251
  266
  281
  297
  314
  332
  350
  369
  389
  410
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  149
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  177
  181
  186
  190
  195
  200
  205
  210
  215
  221
  226
  232
  238
  244
  250
  256
  262
  269
  276
  282
  289
  297
  304
Total operating expenses, $m
  192
  206
  216
  226
  237
  249
  261
  273
  286
  299
  313
  322
  337
  352
  368
  384
  401
  419
  436
  455
  475
  495
  516
  537
  559
  583
  608
  632
  658
  686
  714
Operating income, $m
  60
  80
  105
  132
  160
  190
  221
  253
  287
  322
  359
  403
  443
  484
  528
  573
  620
  668
  719
  773
  828
  886
  946
  1,009
  1,075
  1,144
  1,216
  1,292
  1,371
  1,454
  1,540
EBITDA, $m
  74
  95
  122
  149
  179
  210
  242
  276
  312
  349
  387
  428
  469
  513
  558
  605
  654
  706
  759
  815
  873
  933
  996
  1,062
  1,131
  1,203
  1,279
  1,358
  1,440
  1,527
  1,618
Interest expense (income), $m
  21
  0
  6
  12
  18
  25
  32
  39
  47
  55
  63
  72
  80
  90
  99
  110
  120
  131
  142
  154
  166
  179
  192
  206
  220
  235
  251
  268
  285
  303
  321
Earnings before tax, $m
  61
  80
  100
  120
  142
  165
  189
  214
  240
  268
  296
  331
  362
  395
  428
  463
  500
  538
  577
  619
  662
  707
  754
  803
  855
  909
  965
  1,024
  1,086
  1,151
  1,219
Tax expense, $m
  19
  22
  27
  32
  38
  45
  51
  58
  65
  72
  80
  89
  98
  107
  116
  125
  135
  145
  156
  167
  179
  191
  204
  217
  231
  245
  261
  277
  293
  311
  329
Net income, $m
  42
  59
  73
  88
  104
  120
  138
  156
  175
  195
  216
  242
  264
  288
  313
  338
  365
  392
  421
  452
  483
  516
  550
  586
  624
  663
  705
  748
  793
  840
  890

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  47
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  255
  235
  264
  295
  327
  361
  396
  433
  471
  511
  553
  596
  641
  688
  736
  787
  839
  894
  950
  1,010
  1,071
  1,135
  1,202
  1,272
  1,344
  1,420
  1,500
  1,582
  1,669
  1,759
  1,854
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  208
  235
  264
  295
  327
  361
  396
  433
  471
  511
  553
  596
  641
  688
  736
  787
  839
  894
  950
  1,010
  1,071
  1,135
  1,202
  1,272
  1,344
  1,420
  1,500
  1,582
  1,669
  1,759
  1,854
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.216
  1.217
  1.216
  1.214
  1.217
  1.216
  1.215
  1.215
  1.217
  1.217
  1.215
  1.216
  1.215
  1.215
  1.216
  1.216
  1.216
  1.216
  1.217
  1.216
  1.216
  1.216
  1.216
  1.215
  1.217
  1.216
  1.215
  1.216
  1.216
  1.216
  1.216
Average production assets, $m
  78
  88
  99
  110
  122
  135
  148
  162
  176
  191
  207
  223
  240
  258
  276
  295
  314
  335
  356
  378
  401
  425
  450
  476
  503
  532
  562
  593
  625
  659
  694
Working capital, $m
  87
  45
  51
  57
  63
  69
  76
  83
  91
  98
  106
  115
  123
  132
  141
  151
  161
  172
  183
  194
  206
  218
  231
  244
  258
  273
  288
  304
  321
  338
  356
Total debt, $m
  0
  6
  12
  18
  25
  32
  40
  48
  56
  64
  73
  82
  92
  102
  112
  123
  134
  145
  157
  170
  183
  197
  211
  226
  241
  257
  274
  291
  310
  329
  349
Total liabilities, $m
  44
  50
  56
  62
  69
  76
  84
  92
  100
  108
  117
  126
  136
  146
  156
  167
  178
  189
  201
  214
  227
  241
  255
  270
  285
  301
  318
  335
  354
  373
  393
Total equity, $m
  211
  185
  208
  232
  258
  284
  312
  341
  371
  403
  436
  470
  505
  542
  580
  620
  661
  704
  749
  795
  844
  894
  947
  1,002
  1,059
  1,119
  1,182
  1,247
  1,315
  1,386
  1,461
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  255
  235
  264
  294
  327
  360
  396
  433
  471
  511
  553
  596
  641
  688
  736
  787
  839
  893
  950
  1,009
  1,071
  1,135
  1,202
  1,272
  1,344
  1,420
  1,500
  1,582
  1,669
  1,759
  1,854
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.030
  0.060
  0.080
  0.100
  0.110
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788
  0.788

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  42
  59
  73
  88
  104
  120
  138
  156
  175
  195
  216
  242
  264
  288
  313
  338
  365
  392
  421
  452
  483
  516
  550
  586
  624
  663
  705
  748
  793
  840
  890
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
Funds from operations, $m
  51
  74
  89
  105
  122
  141
  160
  179
  200
  222
  244
  267
  291
  317
  343
  371
  400
  430
  461
  494
  528
  563
  600
  639
  680
  722
  767
  814
  862
  913
  967
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
Cash from operations, $m
  52
  68
  83
  99
  116
  134
  153
  172
  193
  214
  236
  258
  282
  308
  334
  361
  390
  419
  450
  482
  516
  551
  588
  626
  666
  708
  752
  798
  846
  896
  949
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -25
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
Free cash flow, $m
  27
  50
  63
  77
  92
  108
  125
  142
  160
  180
  200
  219
  241
  263
  287
  312
  337
  364
  392
  421
  451
  482
  515
  550
  586
  623
  663
  704
  747
  793
  840
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -43
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -46
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -19
  55
  69
  83
  99
  115
  132
  150
  169
  188
  208
  228
  250
  273
  297
  322
  348
  375
  404
  433
  464
  496
  530
  565
  601
  640
  680
  722
  766
  812
  860
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -37
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  47
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  81
  46
  59
  73
  88
  104
  121
  138
  157
  176
  194
  215
  237
  259
  283
  307
  332
  359
  387
  415
  445
  477
  510
  544
  580
  617
  656
  698
  741
  786
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  78
  42
  52
  60
  68
  76
  82
  86
  90
  92
  92
  92
  90
  87
  83
  78
  72
  66
  60
  53
  46
  40
  33
  28
  23
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Chase Corporation is engaged in manufacturing of protective materials for reliability applications. The Company's operating segments include industrial materials segment and construction materials segment. The Industrial Materials segment includes specified products that are used in, or integrated into, another company's product, with demand typically dependent upon general economic conditions. The industrial material includes insulating and conducting materials for the manufacture of electrical and telephone wire and cable, electrical splicing, and terminating and repair tapes, which are marketed to wire and cable manufacturers. The Construction Materials segment consists of project-oriented product offerings that are sold and used as Chase branded products. The Company's principal products are specialty tapes, laminates, sealants, coatings and chemical intermediates. Its manufacturing facilities are located at O'Hara Township, Pennsylvania and Blawnox, Pennsylvania facilities.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Chase (CCF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.2
Price to Sales 4.3
Price to Book 5.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 22.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 21.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.5%
Return On Total Capital 19.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Return On Equity 21.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 42.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.7%
EBITDA Margin 37.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.4%
Operating Margin 24.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 24.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.8%
Net Profit Margin 16.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Effective Tax Rate 31.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.9%
Payout Ratio 16.7%

CCF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CCF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $253 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Chase. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Chase. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CCF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CCF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Chase, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Chase.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CCF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 20.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $145 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CCF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 97.7% for Chase.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Chase. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CCF stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CCF are equal to 30.8%.

Life of production assets of 9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Chase operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CCF is equal to 15.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $211 million for Chase - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 9.544 million for Chase is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Chase at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Chase posts 1Q profit   [Jan-08-18 04:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chase Corp. : November 28, 2017   [Nov-28-17 11:59AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chase Corp. : November 15, 2017   [Nov-15-17 11:39AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Chase posts 4Q profit   [Oct-30-17 05:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chase Corp. : October 13, 2017   [Oct-13-17 10:36AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chase Corp. : August 3, 2017   [Aug-03-17 07:55PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chase Corp. : July 24, 2017   [Jul-24-17 02:41PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chase Corp. : July 11, 2017   [Jul-11-17 02:14PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Chase posts 3Q profit   [Jul-05-17 09:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ Chase Corp. Value Analysis (NYSE MKT:CCF) : June 29, 2017   [Jun-29-17 03:29PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chase Corp. : May 12, 2017   [May-12-17 03:46PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chase Corp. : May 1, 2017   [May-01-17 03:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chase Corp. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 04:06PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Chase posts 2Q profit   [Apr-05-17 04:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chase Corp. : January 19, 2017   [Jan-19-17 12:34PM  Capital Cube]
▶ JPMorgan at 52-Week High After Q4 EPS Soars 30%   [Jan-13-17 03:38PM  at Investopedia]
▶ Video-Investor Presentation for Chase Corp.   [Jan-05-17 09:47AM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chase Corp. : December 19, 2016   [Dec-19-16 11:29AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Chase Sapphire Card Perks Costing the Company Millions   [Dec-08-16 04:29PM  at Investopedia]
▶ Should You Buy CBIZ, Inc. (CBZ)?   [Dec-02-16 06:08AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Chase Corp. : November 30, 2016   [Nov-30-16 12:06PM  Capital Cube]
▶ JPMorgan Chase Is Done with Drugstore ATMs   [Oct-04-16 10:18AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Should Jaime Dimon Tell Clients to Raise Wages? (JPM)   [Aug-25-16 10:00AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Video-Investor Presentation for Chase Corp.   [Aug-23-16 04:25PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ VTSMX: Top 3 Mutual Fund Holders of JP Morgan Chase (JPM)   [Aug-11-16 05:27PM  at Investopedia]
▶ William Merritt Chase: A Modern Master Review: Between Old and New   [Aug-10-16 10:37PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Corporate Document-Q2 2016 Earnings Release for Chase Corp.   [Aug-05-16 04:06PM  at Company Spotlight]
Financial statements of CCF
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