Intrinsic value of ChinaCache International Holdings ADR - CCIH

Previous Close

$2.31

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$2.31

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CCIH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -21.94
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  153
  156
  160
  164
  168
  173
  179
  185
  192
  199
  207
  215
  223
  233
  243
  253
  264
  276
  288
  301
  315
  330
  345
  361
  379
  397
  416
  436
  457
  479
  502
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  169
  173
  178
  183
  188
  194
  201
  208
  216
  224
  233
  242
  252
  263
  274
  287
  299
  313
  327
  342
  358
  375
  392
  411
  430
  451
  473
  495
  519
  545
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  286
  169
  173
  178
  183
  188
  194
  201
  208
  216
  224
  233
  242
  252
  263
  274
  287
  299
  313
  327
  342
  358
  375
  392
  411
  430
  451
  473
  495
  519
  545
Operating income, $m
  -133
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
EBITDA, $m
  -110
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
Earnings before tax, $m
  -132
  -14
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -132
  -14
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  20
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  257
  242
  247
  253
  261
  269
  277
  287
  297
  308
  320
  332
  346
  360
  375
  392
  409
  427
  446
  466
  488
  510
  534
  559
  586
  614
  643
  674
  707
  741
  777
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  237
  242
  247
  253
  261
  269
  277
  287
  297
  308
  320
  332
  346
  360
  375
  392
  409
  427
  446
  466
  488
  510
  534
  559
  586
  614
  643
  674
  707
  741
  777
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.646
  0.645
  0.648
  0.648
  0.644
  0.643
  0.646
  0.645
  0.646
  0.646
  0.647
  0.648
  0.645
  0.647
  0.648
  0.645
  0.645
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
  0.645
  0.647
  0.646
  0.646
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.646
  0.646
  0.646
Average production assets, $m
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  87
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  116
  121
Working capital, $m
  -23
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
Total debt, $m
  22
  -39
  -34
  -28
  -21
  -14
  -7
  2
  11
  21
  32
  43
  55
  68
  82
  96
  112
  128
  146
  164
  183
  203
  225
  248
  271
  296
  323
  351
  380
  411
  443
Total liabilities, $m
  278
  217
  222
  228
  235
  242
  249
  258
  267
  277
  288
  299
  311
  324
  338
  352
  368
  384
  402
  420
  439
  459
  481
  504
  527
  552
  579
  607
  636
  667
  699
Total equity, $m
  -21
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  257
  241
  247
  253
  261
  269
  277
  287
  297
  308
  320
  332
  346
  360
  376
  391
  409
  427
  447
  467
  488
  510
  534
  560
  586
  613
  643
  674
  707
  741
  777
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -1.048
  -1.600
  -1.360
  -1.100
  -0.820
  -0.530
  -0.240
  0.070
  0.380
  0.680
  0.990
  1.300
  1.600
  1.890
  2.180
  2.460
  2.740
  3.000
  3.260
  3.510
  3.750
  3.990
  4.210
  4.420
  4.630
  4.830
  5.020
  5.200
  5.380
  5.540
  5.700
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.156
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -132
  -14
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Funds from operations, $m
  -17
  -6
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  -27
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
New CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -29
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
Free cash flow, $m
  -56
  -14
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  3
  -46
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -5
  64
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -12
  18
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  28
  31
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  76
  81
  85
  91
  95
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -66
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  125
  -64
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -54
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
Discount rate, %
 
  16.10
  16.91
  17.75
  18.64
  19.57
  20.55
  21.58
  22.65
  23.79
  24.98
  26.23
  27.54
  28.91
  30.36
  31.88
  33.47
  35.14
  36.90
  38.75
  40.68
  42.72
  44.85
  47.10
  49.45
  51.92
  54.52
  57.25
  60.11
  63.11
  66.27
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -47
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  32.9
  21.5
  13.9
  8.9
  5.6
  3.5
  2.2
  1.4
  0.8
  0.5
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

ChinaCache International Holdings Ltd. (ChinaCache) is a holding Company. The Company provides a portfolio of services and solutions to businesses, government agencies and other enterprises to manage the scalability of their online services and applications. Its across the nation service platform, which consists of its network, servers and software, is designed to handle planned and unplanned peaks without upfront and ongoing capital outlay and other investments on the part of its customers. It provides a portfolio of content and application delivery total solutions and solutions tailored to its customers' needs. It provides various services that are offered on a standalone basis or combined as part of its integrated solutions, such as Web Page Content Services, File Transfer Services, Rich Media Streaming Services, Guaranteed Application Services, Managed Internet Data Services, ChinaCache Cloud Services, Content Bridging Services and Mobile Internet Solutions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ChinaCache International Holdings ADR (CCIH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -7.2
Price to Sales 6.2
Price to Book -45
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -35
Price to Free Cash Flow -26.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -21.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -30.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -8.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.7
LT Debt to Equity -33.3%
Total Debt to Equity -104.8%
Interest Coverage -131
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -41.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.9%
Return On Total Capital -200%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -70.2%
Return On Equity -318.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -110.2%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin -2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17%
EBITDA Margin -70.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.7%
Operating Margin -86.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -86.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.6%
Net Profit Margin -86.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

CCIH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CCIH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $153 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ChinaCache International Holdings ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ChinaCache International Holdings ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CCIH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 16.1%, whose default value for CCIH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ChinaCache International Holdings ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ChinaCache International Holdings ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CCIH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 108.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CCIH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for ChinaCache International Holdings ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ChinaCache International Holdings ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CCIH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CCIH are equal to 24.2%.

Life of production assets of 1.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ChinaCache International Holdings ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CCIH is equal to -18.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-21 million for ChinaCache International Holdings ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.13 million for ChinaCache International Holdings ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ChinaCache International Holdings ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Who Owns ChinaCache International Holdings Ltd (NASDAQ:CCIH)?   [Jan-19-18 09:15AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ ChinaCache Has Regained Compliance with NASDAQ Rules   [Nov-21-17 04:10PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ChinaCache Announces Change of Management   [Sep-07-17 07:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ChinaCache Announces Changes in Board of Directors   [Aug-02-17 07:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ChinaCache Announces Change in Board of Directors   [Jul-26-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ChinaCache Receives CDN License from the Chinese Government   [Jun-01-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Chinacache reports 4Q loss   [06:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ ChinaCache to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Mar-02-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ These 5 Stocks Under $10 Could Get Hot Soon   [Jan-27-17 12:17PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Is Alimera Sciences Inc (ALIM) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-18-16 11:35AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Chinacache reports 3Q loss   [Nov-29-16 06:13PM  AP]
▶ Chinacache reports 2Q loss   [Aug-18-16 06:11PM  AP]
▶ ChinaCache Launches Internet Exchange Center in Shanghai   [Aug-03-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ChinaCache Announces Change of Management   [Jul-01-16 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CHINACACHE INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD. Financials   [01:04PM  EDGAR Online Financials]
▶ ChinaCache to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Feb-29-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ChinaCache Announces Share Buyback Program   [Dec-28  08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Castle Brands Inc (ROX) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Nov-24  05:17PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of CCIH
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