Intrinsic value of Compania Cervecerias Unidas, S.A. - CCU

Previous Close

$26.31

  Intrinsic Value

$16.62

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-37%

Previous close

$26.31

 
Intrinsic value

$16.62

 
Up/down potential

-37%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CCU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  18.50
  17.15
  15.94
  14.84
  13.86
  12.97
  12.17
  11.46
  10.81
  10.23
  9.71
  9.24
  8.81
  8.43
  8.09
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.03
  6.82
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
Revenue, $m
  3,271
  3,832
  4,442
  5,101
  5,808
  6,562
  7,361
  8,204
  9,091
  10,021
  10,993
  12,009
  13,067
  14,169
  15,315
  16,506
  17,745
  19,031
  20,369
  21,758
  23,204
  24,706
  26,270
  27,898
  29,593
  31,360
  33,201
  35,122
  37,126
  39,219
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,641
  3,089
  3,577
  4,103
  4,668
  5,270
  5,908
  6,582
  7,290
  8,033
  8,783
  9,594
  10,439
  11,319
  12,235
  13,187
  14,176
  15,204
  16,272
  17,383
  18,537
  19,738
  20,987
  22,288
  23,642
  25,053
  26,524
  28,059
  29,660
  31,332
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  150
  154
  157
  160
  164
  168
  171
  175
  179
  183
  187
  191
  195
  199
  204
  208
  213
  217
  222
  227
  232
  237
  242
  248
  253
  259
  265
  270
  276
  282
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,791
  3,243
  3,734
  4,263
  4,832
  5,438
  6,079
  6,757
  7,469
  8,216
  8,970
  9,785
  10,634
  11,518
  12,439
  13,395
  14,389
  15,421
  16,494
  17,610
  18,769
  19,975
  21,229
  22,536
  23,895
  25,312
  26,789
  28,329
  29,936
  31,614
Operating income, $m
  480
  589
  709
  838
  976
  1,124
  1,281
  1,447
  1,622
  1,805
  2,024
  2,224
  2,433
  2,650
  2,876
  3,111
  3,356
  3,610
  3,874
  4,149
  4,434
  4,731
  5,041
  5,363
  5,698
  6,048
  6,413
  6,793
  7,190
  7,605
EBITDA, $m
  876
  1,049
  1,237
  1,441
  1,659
  1,892
  2,139
  2,400
  2,675
  2,963
  3,264
  3,579
  3,907
  4,248
  4,604
  4,973
  5,357
  5,757
  6,172
  6,603
  7,052
  7,518
  8,004
  8,510
  9,036
  9,585
  10,158
  10,755
  11,378
  12,029
Interest expense (income), $m
  26
  44
  72
  104
  137
  174
  213
  255
  300
  347
  396
  448
  502
  558
  617
  678
  742
  808
  877
  949
  1,023
  1,100
  1,180
  1,264
  1,351
  1,441
  1,536
  1,634
  1,736
  1,843
  1,954
Earnings before tax, $m
  436
  517
  605
  700
  802
  911
  1,026
  1,147
  1,275
  1,409
  1,577
  1,723
  1,875
  2,033
  2,198
  2,369
  2,548
  2,733
  2,926
  3,126
  3,334
  3,551
  3,777
  4,012
  4,257
  4,512
  4,779
  5,057
  5,347
  5,650
Tax expense, $m
  118
  140
  163
  189
  217
  246
  277
  310
  344
  380
  426
  465
  506
  549
  593
  640
  688
  738
  790
  844
  900
  959
  1,020
  1,083
  1,149
  1,218
  1,290
  1,365
  1,444
  1,526
Net income, $m
  318
  377
  442
  511
  586
  665
  749
  838
  931
  1,028
  1,151
  1,257
  1,369
  1,484
  1,605
  1,730
  1,860
  1,995
  2,136
  2,282
  2,434
  2,592
  2,757
  2,929
  3,107
  3,294
  3,488
  3,691
  3,903
  4,125

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,807
  4,460
  5,171
  5,939
  6,762
  7,639
  8,569
  9,550
  10,583
  11,666
  12,798
  13,980
  15,212
  16,495
  17,829
  19,216
  20,657
  22,155
  23,712
  25,330
  27,012
  28,762
  30,582
  32,477
  34,451
  36,507
  38,651
  40,887
  43,220
  45,656
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,807
  4,460
  5,171
  5,939
  6,762
  7,639
  8,569
  9,550
  10,583
  11,666
  12,798
  13,980
  15,212
  16,495
  17,829
  19,216
  20,657
  22,155
  23,712
  25,330
  27,012
  28,762
  30,582
  32,477
  34,451
  36,507
  38,651
  40,887
  43,220
  45,656
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
Average production assets, $m
  1,845
  2,161
  2,505
  2,877
  3,276
  3,701
  4,151
  4,627
  5,127
  5,652
  6,200
  6,773
  7,370
  7,991
  8,638
  9,310
  10,008
  10,734
  11,488
  12,272
  13,087
  13,934
  14,816
  15,735
  16,691
  17,687
  18,726
  19,809
  20,939
  22,119
Working capital, $m
  229
  268
  311
  357
  407
  459
  515
  574
  636
  701
  770
  841
  915
  992
  1,072
  1,155
  1,242
  1,332
  1,426
  1,523
  1,624
  1,729
  1,839
  1,953
  2,072
  2,195
  2,324
  2,459
  2,599
  2,745
Total debt, $m
  574
  821
  1,091
  1,382
  1,694
  2,026
  2,378
  2,751
  3,142
  3,552
  3,981
  4,429
  4,896
  5,382
  5,888
  6,414
  6,960
  7,528
  8,118
  8,731
  9,369
  10,032
  10,722
  11,440
  12,188
  12,967
  13,780
  14,627
  15,512
  16,435
Total liabilities, $m
  1,443
  1,691
  1,960
  2,251
  2,563
  2,895
  3,248
  3,620
  4,011
  4,421
  4,850
  5,298
  5,765
  6,251
  6,757
  7,283
  7,829
  8,397
  8,987
  9,600
  10,238
  10,901
  11,591
  12,309
  13,057
  13,836
  14,649
  15,496
  16,381
  17,304
Total equity, $m
  2,364
  2,770
  3,211
  3,688
  4,199
  4,744
  5,321
  5,931
  6,572
  7,244
  7,948
  8,682
  9,447
  10,243
  11,072
  11,933
  12,828
  13,758
  14,725
  15,730
  16,775
  17,861
  18,992
  20,168
  21,394
  22,671
  24,002
  25,391
  26,840
  28,353
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,807
  4,461
  5,171
  5,939
  6,762
  7,639
  8,569
  9,551
  10,583
  11,665
  12,798
  13,980
  15,212
  16,494
  17,829
  19,216
  20,657
  22,155
  23,712
  25,330
  27,013
  28,762
  30,583
  32,477
  34,451
  36,507
  38,651
  40,887
  43,221
  45,657
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.240
  0.300
  0.340
  0.370
  0.400
  0.430
  0.450
  0.460
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621
  0.621

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  318
  377
  442
  511
  586
  665
  749
  838
  931
  1,028
  1,151
  1,257
  1,369
  1,484
  1,605
  1,730
  1,860
  1,995
  2,136
  2,282
  2,434
  2,592
  2,757
  2,929
  3,107
  3,294
  3,488
  3,691
  3,903
  4,125
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  397
  460
  529
  603
  683
  768
  858
  953
  1,053
  1,158
  1,240
  1,355
  1,474
  1,598
  1,728
  1,862
  2,002
  2,147
  2,298
  2,454
  2,617
  2,787
  2,963
  3,147
  3,338
  3,537
  3,745
  3,962
  4,188
  4,424
Funds from operations, $m
  715
  837
  971
  1,114
  1,269
  1,433
  1,607
  1,791
  1,984
  2,187
  2,391
  2,612
  2,843
  3,082
  3,332
  3,592
  3,861
  4,142
  4,433
  4,736
  5,051
  5,379
  5,720
  6,076
  6,446
  6,831
  7,234
  7,653
  8,091
  8,549
Change in working capital, $m
  36
  39
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
Cash from operations, $m
  679
  798
  928
  1,068
  1,219
  1,380
  1,551
  1,732
  1,922
  2,122
  2,323
  2,541
  2,768
  3,005
  3,252
  3,508
  3,775
  4,052
  4,340
  4,639
  4,950
  5,274
  5,611
  5,962
  6,327
  6,708
  7,105
  7,519
  7,951
  8,402
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -311
  -369
  -432
  -501
  -575
  -655
  -740
  -830
  -925
  -1,025
  -1,130
  -1,240
  -1,355
  -1,474
  -1,598
  -1,728
  -1,862
  -2,002
  -2,147
  -2,298
  -2,454
  -2,617
  -2,787
  -2,963
  -3,147
  -3,338
  -3,537
  -3,745
  -3,962
  -4,188
New CAPEX, $m
  -288
  -316
  -344
  -372
  -399
  -425
  -451
  -476
  -500
  -525
  -549
  -573
  -597
  -621
  -646
  -672
  -698
  -726
  -754
  -784
  -815
  -848
  -882
  -918
  -956
  -996
  -1,039
  -1,083
  -1,130
  -1,180
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -599
  -685
  -776
  -873
  -974
  -1,080
  -1,191
  -1,306
  -1,425
  -1,550
  -1,679
  -1,813
  -1,952
  -2,095
  -2,244
  -2,400
  -2,560
  -2,728
  -2,901
  -3,082
  -3,269
  -3,465
  -3,669
  -3,881
  -4,103
  -4,334
  -4,576
  -4,828
  -5,092
  -5,368
Free cash flow, $m
  80
  113
  151
  195
  245
  300
  360
  426
  496
  572
  644
  728
  817
  910
  1,007
  1,109
  1,214
  1,324
  1,439
  1,557
  1,681
  1,809
  1,942
  2,080
  2,224
  2,373
  2,529
  2,690
  2,859
  3,034
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  225
  247
  269
  291
  312
  332
  352
  372
  391
  410
  429
  448
  467
  486
  506
  526
  546
  568
  590
  613
  638
  663
  690
  718
  748
  779
  813
  847
  884
  923
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  53
  28
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  278
  275
  269
  291
  312
  332
  352
  372
  391
  410
  429
  448
  467
  486
  506
  526
  546
  568
  590
  613
  638
  663
  690
  718
  748
  779
  813
  847
  884
  923
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  358
  389
  421
  486
  557
  633
  713
  798
  888
  982
  1,073
  1,176
  1,284
  1,396
  1,513
  1,634
  1,761
  1,892
  2,029
  2,171
  2,318
  2,472
  2,632
  2,798
  2,972
  3,153
  3,341
  3,538
  3,743
  3,957
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -371
  -405
  -441
  -477
  -511
  -545
  -578
  -610
  -641
  -672
  -703
  -734
  -765
  -797
  -829
  -861
  -895
  -930
  -967
  -1,005
  -1,045
  -1,087
  -1,131
  -1,177
  -1,226
  -1,277
  -1,331
  -1,389
  -1,449
  -1,513
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -13
  -17
  -21
  10
  46
  88
  135
  188
  246
  310
  370
  442
  519
  600
  684
  773
  866
  962
  1,062
  1,166
  1,274
  1,385
  1,501
  1,622
  1,746
  1,876
  2,010
  2,149
  2,294
  2,445
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -13
  -16
  -18
  8
  36
  64
  91
  118
  142
  162
  176
  189
  197
  201
  201
  196
  188
  177
  164
  148
  132
  115
  98
  83
  68
  55
  43
  33
  25
  18
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  98.9
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4

Compania Cervecerias Unidas S.A. is a diversified beverage company operating principally in Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Paraguay and Uruguay. The Company operates as a brewer, soft drinks producer, water and nectar producer, wine producer and pisco distributor. The Company's segments include Chile, International Business and Wine. The Company carries a portfolio of products, which includes a range of brands of alcoholic and non-alcoholic beer, with Cristal as its primary brand in Chile. In addition, it produces and distributes Heineken beer; distributes Sol beer and Budweiser beer, and distributes and produces Kunstmann and Austral beer in Chile. The International Business segment includes operations in Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay. The Company, through Vina San Pedro Tarapaca S.A. (VSPT), produces and markets a range of wine products for the domestic and mainly the export market.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Compania Cervecerias Unidas, S.A. (CCU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 54.3
Price to Sales 4.1
Price to Book 6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 34
Price to Free Cash Flow 105.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 11%
Total Debt to Equity 16.1%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Total Capital 9.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Return On Equity 11.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 52.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.4%
EBITDA Margin 12%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Operating Margin 12.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Net Profit Margin 7.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Effective Tax Rate 17.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.9%
Payout Ratio 58.7%

CCU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CCU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2760 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Compania Cervecerias Unidas, S.A.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Compania Cervecerias Unidas, S.A.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CCU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CCU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Compania Cervecerias Unidas, S.A., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Compania Cervecerias Unidas, S.A..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CCU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $147 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CCU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 12.6% for Compania Cervecerias Unidas, S.A..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Compania Cervecerias Unidas, S.A.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CCU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CCU are equal to 56.4%.

Life of production assets of 0 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Compania Cervecerias Unidas, S.A. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CCU is equal to 7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1993.54664933 million for Compania Cervecerias Unidas, S.A. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 184.900 million for Compania Cervecerias Unidas, S.A. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Compania Cervecerias Unidas, S.A. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.9 billion.

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