Intrinsic value of Concurrent Computer - CCUR

Previous Close

$5.41

  Intrinsic Value

$2.01

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-63%

Previous close

$5.41

 
Intrinsic value

$2.01

 
Up/down potential

-63%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CCUR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of Concurrent Computer (CCUR) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -12.50
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  28
  45
  69
  104
  150
  212
  291
  391
  513
  661
  834
  1,036
  1,267
  1,527
  1,817
  2,136
  2,485
  2,863
  3,268
  3,702
  4,162
  4,648
  5,160
  5,698
  6,260
  6,848
  7,461
  8,099
  8,763
  9,453
  10,171
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  51
  79
  118
  172
  242
  333
  447
  587
  755
  954
  1,184
  1,448
  1,745
  2,077
  2,442
  2,840
  3,272
  3,736
  4,231
  4,757
  5,313
  5,898
  6,512
  7,155
  7,827
  8,527
  9,257
  10,016
  10,805
  11,625
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  40
  51
  79
  118
  172
  242
  333
  447
  587
  755
  954
  1,184
  1,448
  1,745
  2,077
  2,442
  2,840
  3,272
  3,736
  4,231
  4,757
  5,313
  5,898
  6,512
  7,155
  7,827
  8,527
  9,257
  10,016
  10,805
  11,625
Operating income, $m
  -12
  -6
  -10
  -15
  -21
  -30
  -42
  -56
  -73
  -94
  -119
  -148
  -181
  -218
  -260
  -305
  -355
  -409
  -467
  -529
  -595
  -665
  -738
  -815
  -895
  -979
  -1,067
  -1,158
  -1,253
  -1,352
  -1,454
EBITDA, $m
  -10
  -6
  -10
  -15
  -21
  -30
  -42
  -56
  -73
  -94
  -119
  -148
  -181
  -218
  -260
  -305
  -355
  -409
  -467
  -529
  -595
  -665
  -738
  -815
  -895
  -979
  -1,067
  -1,158
  -1,253
  -1,352
  -1,454
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  11
  14
  17
  21
  25
  30
  36
  41
  48
  55
  62
  70
  78
  87
  96
  105
  115
  125
  136
  147
  159
Earnings before tax, $m
  -12
  -6
  -10
  -15
  -23
  -32
  -45
  -60
  -79
  -103
  -130
  -162
  -198
  -239
  -285
  -336
  -391
  -451
  -515
  -584
  -657
  -734
  -816
  -901
  -991
  -1,084
  -1,182
  -1,283
  -1,389
  -1,499
  -1,613
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  28
  -6
  -10
  -15
  -23
  -32
  -45
  -60
  -79
  -103
  -130
  -162
  -198
  -239
  -285
  -336
  -391
  -451
  -515
  -584
  -657
  -734
  -816
  -901
  -991
  -1,084
  -1,182
  -1,283
  -1,389
  -1,499
  -1,613

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  43
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  58
  24
  37
  55
  80
  113
  156
  209
  275
  354
  447
  555
  679
  818
  973
  1,144
  1,331
  1,533
  1,751
  1,983
  2,229
  2,490
  2,764
  3,052
  3,353
  3,668
  3,996
  4,338
  4,693
  5,063
  5,448
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  15
  24
  37
  55
  80
  113
  156
  209
  275
  354
  447
  555
  679
  818
  973
  1,144
  1,331
  1,533
  1,751
  1,983
  2,229
  2,490
  2,764
  3,052
  3,353
  3,668
  3,996
  4,338
  4,693
  5,063
  5,448
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.867
  1.875
  1.865
  1.891
  1.875
  1.876
  1.865
  1.871
  1.865
  1.867
  1.866
  1.867
  1.866
  1.867
  1.867
  1.867
  1.867
  1.868
  1.866
  1.867
  1.867
  1.867
  1.867
  1.867
  1.867
  1.867
  1.867
  1.867
  1.867
  1.867
  1.867
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  45
  3
  5
  7
  11
  15
  21
  28
  36
  47
  59
  74
  90
  108
  129
  152
  176
  203
  232
  263
  295
  330
  366
  405
  444
  486
  530
  575
  622
  671
  722
Total debt, $m
  0
  7
  18
  35
  57
  87
  125
  173
  233
  303
  387
  485
  596
  721
  861
  1,015
  1,183
  1,365
  1,560
  1,769
  1,991
  2,226
  2,472
  2,732
  3,003
  3,286
  3,581
  3,889
  4,209
  4,542
  4,888
Total liabilities, $m
  14
  22
  33
  50
  72
  102
  140
  188
  248
  318
  402
  500
  611
  736
  876
  1,030
  1,198
  1,380
  1,575
  1,784
  2,006
  2,241
  2,487
  2,747
  3,018
  3,301
  3,596
  3,904
  4,224
  4,557
  4,903
Total equity, $m
  43
  2
  4
  6
  8
  11
  16
  21
  28
  35
  45
  56
  68
  82
  97
  114
  133
  153
  175
  198
  223
  249
  276
  305
  335
  367
  400
  434
  469
  506
  545
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  57
  24
  37
  56
  80
  113
  156
  209
  276
  353
  447
  556
  679
  818
  973
  1,144
  1,331
  1,533
  1,750
  1,982
  2,229
  2,490
  2,763
  3,052
  3,353
  3,668
  3,996
  4,338
  4,693
  5,063
  5,448
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  2.750
  4.950
  6.290
  7.140
  7.680
  8.040
  8.280
  8.450
  8.580
  8.660
  8.730
  8.780
  8.820
  8.850
  8.870
  8.890
  8.900
  8.910
  8.920
  8.930
  8.940
  8.950
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.960
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.000
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  28
  -6
  -10
  -15
  -23
  -32
  -45
  -60
  -79
  -103
  -130
  -162
  -198
  -239
  -285
  -336
  -391
  -451
  -515
  -584
  -657
  -734
  -816
  -901
  -991
  -1,084
  -1,182
  -1,283
  -1,389
  -1,499
  -1,613
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  -3
  -6
  -10
  -15
  -23
  -32
  -45
  -60
  -79
  -103
  -130
  -162
  -198
  -239
  -285
  -336
  -391
  -451
  -515
  -584
  -657
  -734
  -816
  -901
  -991
  -1,084
  -1,182
  -1,283
  -1,389
  -1,499
  -1,613
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
Cash from operations, $m
  -3
  -8
  -12
  -18
  -26
  -37
  -50
  -67
  -88
  -113
  -142
  -176
  -215
  -258
  -306
  -358
  -416
  -478
  -544
  -615
  -690
  -769
  -852
  -939
  -1,031
  -1,126
  -1,225
  -1,329
  -1,436
  -1,548
  -1,664
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  20
  -8
  -12
  -18
  -26
  -37
  -50
  -67
  -88
  -113
  -142
  -176
  -215
  -258
  -306
  -358
  -416
  -478
  -544
  -615
  -690
  -769
  -852
  -939
  -1,031
  -1,126
  -1,225
  -1,329
  -1,436
  -1,548
  -1,664
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  7
  12
  17
  23
  30
  38
  48
  59
  71
  84
  97
  111
  125
  140
  154
  168
  182
  196
  209
  222
  234
  247
  259
  271
  283
  295
  308
  320
  333
  346
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  9
  11
  17
  25
  36
  49
  66
  86
  111
  139
  173
  210
  253
  301
  353
  410
  471
  537
  607
  682
  760
  843
  930
  1,021
  1,116
  1,215
  1,318
  1,425
  1,536
  1,652
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1
  16
  23
  34
  48
  66
  87
  114
  145
  182
  223
  270
  321
  378
  441
  507
  578
  653
  733
  816
  904
  994
  1,090
  1,189
  1,292
  1,399
  1,510
  1,626
  1,745
  1,869
  1,998
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  21
  8
  11
  16
  22
  29
  37
  46
  57
  68
  81
  94
  107
  121
  135
  148
  162
  175
  188
  201
  214
  226
  238
  250
  261
  273
  285
  296
  308
  321
  333
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -22
  -9
  -11
  -17
  -25
  -36
  -49
  -66
  -86
  -111
  -139
  -173
  -210
  -253
  -301
  -353
  -410
  -471
  -537
  -607
  -682
  -760
  -843
  -930
  -1,021
  -1,116
  -1,215
  -1,318
  -1,425
  -1,536
  -1,652
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  43
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  42
  0
  -1
  -4
  -7
  -12
  -19
  -29
  -42
  -59
  -79
  -103
  -132
  -166
  -204
  -248
  -296
  -348
  -406
  -468
  -534
  -605
  -680
  -760
  -843
  -930
  -1,021
  -1,116
  -1,215
  -1,318
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  40
  0
  -1
  -3
  -5
  -9
  -13
  -18
  -24
  -31
  -37
  -44
  -50
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -64
  -64
  -62
  -59
  -55
  -50
  -45
  -39
  -33
  -27
  -22
  -17
  -13
  -10
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  10.4
  2.2
  0.5
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Concurrent Computer Corporation is a software and solutions company that develops applications on storage technologies. The Company’s operates through content delivery segment, which include software, hardware and services for streaming video content to various consumer devices and storing and managing content in the network. Its streaming video and storage products and services are deployed by service providers to support consumer-facing video applications, including live broadcast video, video-on-demand (VOD) and time-shifted video services, such as cloud-based digital video recording (cDVR). Its multi-workload, scale-out storage products are suited for a range of enterprise information technology (IT) and video applications.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Concurrent Computer (CCUR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 1.8
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -16.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -12.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -12.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 54.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Return On Total Capital 87.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Return On Equity 87.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 53.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.4%
EBITDA Margin -35.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.5%
Operating Margin -42.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19%
Pre-Tax Margin -42.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19%
Net Profit Margin 100%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Effective Tax Rate 8.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.2%
Payout Ratio 17.9%

CCUR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CCUR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $28 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Concurrent Computer. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Concurrent Computer. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CCUR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CCUR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Concurrent Computer, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Concurrent Computer.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CCUR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 114.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CCUR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Concurrent Computer.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Concurrent Computer. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CCUR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CCUR are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 0 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Concurrent Computer operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CCUR is equal to 7.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $43 million for Concurrent Computer - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 9.979 million for Concurrent Computer is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Concurrent Computer at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Vecima Closes Acquisition of Concurrent   [Jan-02-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Concurrent Achieves Sales Milestone for Zephyr Transcode   [Oct-19-17 09:28AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Concurrent Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-31-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Concurrent Introduces Media Delivery Springboard   [Jul-26-17 11:35AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Concurrent Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Jun-05-17 09:02AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Concurrent Announces Availability of Origin Release 3   [Apr-25-17 04:24PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Concurrent Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-01-17 09:02AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Concurrent Declares Quarterly Dividend   [09:01AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Concurrent Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Dec-01-16 09:03AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Concurrent Declares Quarterly Dividend   [09:01AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Track Small Activists for Big Rewards   [Nov-22-16 08:00AM  at TheStreet]
▶ UPDATE -- Aquari Storage Achieves Commvault Compatibility   [Oct-03-16 02:19PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of CCUR
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