Intrinsic value of Cadence Design Systems - CDNS

Previous Close

$45.54

  Intrinsic Value

$35.89

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-21%

Previous close

$45.54

 
Intrinsic value

$35.89

 
Up/down potential

-21%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CDNS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 12.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
  7.33
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
Revenue, $m
  2,102
  2,268
  2,440
  2,619
  2,805
  2,998
  3,199
  3,408
  3,626
  3,852
  4,087
  4,333
  4,589
  4,855
  5,134
  5,424
  5,727
  6,044
  6,376
  6,722
  7,084
  7,463
  7,860
  8,275
  8,710
  9,166
  9,643
  10,143
  10,667
  11,217
Variable operating expenses, $m
  785
  839
  896
  955
  1,016
  1,079
  1,145
  1,214
  1,285
  1,359
  1,342
  1,423
  1,507
  1,594
  1,686
  1,781
  1,881
  1,985
  2,094
  2,207
  2,326
  2,451
  2,581
  2,717
  2,860
  3,010
  3,166
  3,331
  3,503
  3,683
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  925
  945
  966
  987
  1,009
  1,031
  1,054
  1,077
  1,101
  1,125
  1,150
  1,175
  1,201
  1,227
  1,254
  1,282
  1,310
  1,339
  1,368
  1,399
  1,429
  1,461
  1,493
  1,526
  1,559
  1,594
  1,629
  1,664
  1,701
  1,739
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,710
  1,784
  1,862
  1,942
  2,025
  2,110
  2,199
  2,291
  2,386
  2,484
  2,492
  2,598
  2,708
  2,821
  2,940
  3,063
  3,191
  3,324
  3,462
  3,606
  3,755
  3,912
  4,074
  4,243
  4,419
  4,604
  4,795
  4,995
  5,204
  5,422
Operating income, $m
  393
  484
  578
  677
  780
  888
  1,000
  1,117
  1,240
  1,367
  1,595
  1,735
  1,881
  2,034
  2,194
  2,361
  2,537
  2,721
  2,914
  3,116
  3,329
  3,552
  3,786
  4,032
  4,291
  4,562
  4,848
  5,148
  5,463
  5,795
EBITDA, $m
  563
  660
  761
  867
  977
  1,091
  1,211
  1,335
  1,466
  1,601
  1,743
  1,892
  2,047
  2,210
  2,380
  2,558
  2,744
  2,940
  3,145
  3,360
  3,585
  3,822
  4,071
  4,332
  4,606
  4,894
  5,197
  5,515
  5,850
  6,201
Interest expense (income), $m
  21
  39
  45
  52
  58
  65
  72
  79
  86
  94
  102
  111
  120
  129
  138
  148
  159
  170
  181
  193
  205
  218
  232
  246
  261
  276
  292
  309
  327
  346
  365
Earnings before tax, $m
  353
  438
  527
  619
  716
  816
  921
  1,031
  1,146
  1,265
  1,485
  1,615
  1,752
  1,895
  2,045
  2,202
  2,367
  2,540
  2,721
  2,911
  3,111
  3,320
  3,540
  3,772
  4,015
  4,270
  4,538
  4,821
  5,117
  5,429
Tax expense, $m
  95
  118
  142
  167
  193
  220
  249
  278
  309
  342
  401
  436
  473
  512
  552
  595
  639
  686
  735
  786
  840
  896
  956
  1,018
  1,084
  1,153
  1,225
  1,302
  1,382
  1,466
Net income, $m
  258
  320
  385
  452
  523
  596
  673
  753
  836
  924
  1,084
  1,179
  1,279
  1,384
  1,493
  1,608
  1,728
  1,854
  1,986
  2,125
  2,271
  2,424
  2,584
  2,753
  2,931
  3,117
  3,313
  3,519
  3,736
  3,963

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,470
  2,665
  2,867
  3,078
  3,296
  3,523
  3,759
  4,005
  4,260
  4,526
  4,803
  5,091
  5,392
  5,705
  6,032
  6,374
  6,730
  7,103
  7,492
  7,899
  8,325
  8,770
  9,236
  9,724
  10,235
  10,770
  11,331
  11,919
  12,535
  13,180
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,470
  2,665
  2,867
  3,078
  3,296
  3,523
  3,759
  4,005
  4,260
  4,526
  4,803
  5,091
  5,392
  5,705
  6,032
  6,374
  6,730
  7,103
  7,492
  7,899
  8,325
  8,770
  9,236
  9,724
  10,235
  10,770
  11,331
  11,919
  12,535
  13,180
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
  0.851
Average production assets, $m
  746
  805
  866
  930
  996
  1,064
  1,136
  1,210
  1,287
  1,367
  1,451
  1,538
  1,629
  1,724
  1,822
  1,926
  2,033
  2,146
  2,263
  2,386
  2,515
  2,649
  2,790
  2,938
  3,092
  3,254
  3,423
  3,601
  3,787
  3,982
Working capital, $m
  -292
  -315
  -339
  -364
  -390
  -417
  -445
  -474
  -504
  -535
  -568
  -602
  -638
  -675
  -714
  -754
  -796
  -840
  -886
  -934
  -985
  -1,037
  -1,093
  -1,150
  -1,211
  -1,274
  -1,340
  -1,410
  -1,483
  -1,559
Total debt, $m
  840
  955
  1,074
  1,198
  1,326
  1,460
  1,599
  1,744
  1,894
  2,051
  2,214
  2,384
  2,561
  2,745
  2,938
  3,139
  3,349
  3,568
  3,798
  4,037
  4,288
  4,550
  4,825
  5,112
  5,413
  5,729
  6,059
  6,405
  6,768
  7,148
Total liabilities, $m
  1,455
  1,570
  1,689
  1,813
  1,941
  2,075
  2,214
  2,359
  2,509
  2,666
  2,829
  2,999
  3,176
  3,360
  3,553
  3,754
  3,964
  4,184
  4,413
  4,652
  4,903
  5,166
  5,440
  5,728
  6,029
  6,344
  6,674
  7,020
  7,383
  7,763
Total equity, $m
  1,015
  1,095
  1,179
  1,265
  1,355
  1,448
  1,545
  1,646
  1,751
  1,860
  1,974
  2,093
  2,216
  2,345
  2,479
  2,620
  2,766
  2,919
  3,079
  3,246
  3,421
  3,604
  3,796
  3,997
  4,207
  4,427
  4,657
  4,899
  5,152
  5,417
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,470
  2,665
  2,868
  3,078
  3,296
  3,523
  3,759
  4,005
  4,260
  4,526
  4,803
  5,092
  5,392
  5,705
  6,032
  6,374
  6,730
  7,103
  7,492
  7,898
  8,324
  8,770
  9,236
  9,725
  10,236
  10,771
  11,331
  11,919
  12,535
  13,180
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.830
  0.870
  0.910
  0.950
  0.980
  1.010
  1.030
  1.060
  1.080
  1.100
  1.120
  1.140
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.240
  1.250
  1.260
  1.270
  1.280
  1.290
  1.290
  1.300
  1.310
  1.310
  1.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411
  0.411

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  258
  320
  385
  452
  523
  596
  673
  753
  836
  924
  1,084
  1,179
  1,279
  1,384
  1,493
  1,608
  1,728
  1,854
  1,986
  2,125
  2,271
  2,424
  2,584
  2,753
  2,931
  3,117
  3,313
  3,519
  3,736
  3,963
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  171
  177
  183
  189
  196
  203
  210
  218
  226
  234
  148
  157
  166
  176
  186
  196
  207
  219
  231
  244
  257
  270
  285
  300
  316
  332
  349
  367
  386
  406
Funds from operations, $m
  428
  497
  567
  641
  719
  799
  883
  971
  1,062
  1,158
  1,232
  1,336
  1,445
  1,559
  1,679
  1,804
  1,935
  2,073
  2,217
  2,369
  2,527
  2,694
  2,869
  3,053
  3,246
  3,449
  3,662
  3,887
  4,122
  4,370
Change in working capital, $m
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -76
Cash from operations, $m
  451
  520
  591
  666
  744
  826
  911
  1,000
  1,092
  1,189
  1,265
  1,370
  1,481
  1,597
  1,718
  1,845
  1,978
  2,117
  2,263
  2,417
  2,578
  2,747
  2,924
  3,111
  3,307
  3,512
  3,729
  3,956
  4,195
  4,446
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -131
  -140
  -148
  -157
  -166
  -176
  -186
  -196
  -207
  -219
  -231
  -244
  -257
  -270
  -285
  -300
  -316
  -332
  -349
  -367
  -386
New CAPEX, $m
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -169
  -178
  -186
  -195
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -152
  -161
  -171
  -180
  -190
  -200
  -211
  -224
  -235
  -248
  -261
  -275
  -289
  -304
  -320
  -337
  -354
  -373
  -392
  -411
  -432
  -454
  -478
  -501
  -527
  -553
  -581
Free cash flow, $m
  323
  385
  448
  514
  584
  656
  731
  810
  892
  977
  1,041
  1,135
  1,233
  1,336
  1,443
  1,556
  1,673
  1,797
  1,927
  2,063
  2,206
  2,356
  2,513
  2,679
  2,853
  3,035
  3,227
  3,429
  3,641
  3,865
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  111
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  150
  157
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  240
  251
  262
  275
  287
  301
  315
  330
  346
  363
  380
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  111
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  150
  157
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  240
  251
  262
  275
  287
  301
  315
  330
  346
  363
  380
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  434
  499
  567
  638
  712
  790
  870
  954
  1,042
  1,134
  1,204
  1,305
  1,410
  1,520
  1,636
  1,757
  1,883
  2,016
  2,156
  2,303
  2,456
  2,618
  2,788
  2,966
  3,154
  3,350
  3,558
  3,775
  4,004
  4,245
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -230
  -242
  -253
  -265
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  50
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  407
  419
  484
  552
  622
  696
  773
  853
  937
  1,025
  1,091
  1,186
  1,287
  1,391
  1,501
  1,616
  1,737
  1,863
  1,996
  2,135
  2,281
  2,435
  2,596
  2,766
  2,943
  3,131
  3,327
  3,534
  3,751
  3,980
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  391
  384
  421
  454
  482
  505
  522
  533
  538
  537
  518
  506
  489
  467
  441
  411
  378
  343
  307
  271
  236
  202
  170
  141
  115
  91
  71
  55
  41
  30
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Cadence Design Systems, Inc. provides solutions that enable its customers to design electronic products. The Company's product categories include Functional Verification, Digital integrated circuits (IC) Design and Signoff, Custom IC Design and Verification, System Interconnect and Analysis, and intellectual property (IP). Functional verification products are used to verify that the circuitry or the software designed will perform as intended. Digital IC design offerings are used to create representations of a digital circuit or an IC that can be verified for correctness prior to implementation. Custom IC design and verification offerings are used to create schematic and physical representations of circuits down to the transistor level for analog and memory designs. System Interconnect and Analysis offerings are used to develop printed circuit boards and IC packages. Design IP offerings consist of functional blocks, which customers integrate into their ICs for the development process.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cadence Design Systems (CDNS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 62.4
Price to Sales 7
Price to Book 17.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 28.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 32.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 20%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 86.7%
Total Debt to Equity 93.4%
Interest Coverage 12
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Return On Total Capital 12.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Return On Equity 19.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 85.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 85.9%
EBITDA Margin 20.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
Operating Margin 13.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Net Profit Margin 11.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Effective Tax Rate 14.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

CDNS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CDNS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1943.032 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cadence Design Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Cadence Design Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CDNS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CDNS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cadence Design Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cadence Design Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CDNS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 37.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $905 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CDNS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Cadence Design Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cadence Design Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CDNS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CDNS are equal to 35.5%.

Life of production assets of 9.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cadence Design Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CDNS is equal to -13.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $989.202 million for Cadence Design Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 281.906 million for Cadence Design Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cadence Design Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $12.8 billion.

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