Intrinsic value of Cadence Design Systems - CDNS

Previous Close

$41.79

  Intrinsic Value

$19.20

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-54%

  Value-price divergence*

-53%

Previous close

$41.79

 
Intrinsic value

$19.20

 
Up/down potential

-54%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-53%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CDNS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 11.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.70
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.09
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
Revenue, $m
  1,816
  1,920
  2,028
  2,140
  2,258
  2,382
  2,511
  2,645
  2,787
  2,934
  3,089
  3,251
  3,421
  3,599
  3,785
  3,980
  4,185
  4,400
  4,625
  4,861
  5,108
  5,368
  5,641
  5,927
  6,227
  6,541
  6,872
  7,218
  7,582
  7,964
  8,365
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,596
  1,682
  1,773
  1,867
  1,966
  2,069
  2,178
  2,291
  2,409
  2,533
  2,606
  2,742
  2,884
  3,033
  3,190
  3,354
  3,526
  3,706
  3,896
  4,094
  4,302
  4,521
  4,750
  4,990
  5,243
  5,507
  5,785
  6,077
  6,383
  6,704
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,571
  1,596
  1,682
  1,773
  1,867
  1,966
  2,069
  2,178
  2,291
  2,409
  2,533
  2,606
  2,742
  2,884
  3,033
  3,190
  3,354
  3,526
  3,706
  3,896
  4,094
  4,302
  4,521
  4,750
  4,990
  5,243
  5,507
  5,785
  6,077
  6,383
  6,704
Operating income, $m
  245
  324
  345
  368
  391
  416
  441
  468
  496
  525
  556
  645
  679
  714
  751
  790
  831
  874
  918
  965
  1,014
  1,066
  1,120
  1,177
  1,236
  1,299
  1,364
  1,433
  1,505
  1,581
  1,661
EBITDA, $m
  365
  441
  466
  492
  519
  548
  577
  608
  641
  675
  710
  747
  786
  827
  870
  915
  962
  1,011
  1,063
  1,117
  1,174
  1,234
  1,297
  1,362
  1,431
  1,504
  1,580
  1,659
  1,743
  1,831
  1,923
Interest expense (income), $m
  21
  26
  29
  33
  36
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  84
  90
  96
  102
  109
  116
  123
  131
  139
  147
  156
  166
  175
  185
  196
  207
Earnings before tax, $m
  237
  297
  316
  335
  355
  376
  398
  421
  445
  470
  497
  582
  611
  641
  673
  706
  741
  777
  816
  856
  898
  943
  989
  1,038
  1,089
  1,143
  1,199
  1,258
  1,320
  1,385
  1,453
Tax expense, $m
  34
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  114
  120
  127
  134
  157
  165
  173
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  243
  254
  267
  280
  294
  308
  324
  340
  356
  374
  392
Net income, $m
  203
  217
  231
  245
  259
  275
  291
  307
  325
  343
  363
  425
  446
  468
  491
  515
  541
  568
  596
  625
  656
  688
  722
  758
  795
  834
  875
  918
  964
  1,011
  1,061

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  468
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,097
  1,722
  1,818
  1,920
  2,025
  2,136
  2,252
  2,373
  2,499
  2,632
  2,770
  2,916
  3,068
  3,227
  3,394
  3,570
  3,753
  3,946
  4,148
  4,359
  4,582
  4,814
  5,059
  5,315
  5,584
  5,867
  6,163
  6,474
  6,800
  7,143
  7,502
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,629
  1,722
  1,818
  1,920
  2,025
  2,136
  2,252
  2,373
  2,499
  2,632
  2,770
  2,916
  3,068
  3,227
  3,394
  3,570
  3,753
  3,946
  4,148
  4,359
  4,582
  4,814
  5,059
  5,315
  5,584
  5,867
  6,163
  6,474
  6,800
  7,143
  7,502
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.115
  1.115
  1.116
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
  1.115
Average production assets, $m
  512
  541
  572
  604
  637
  672
  708
  746
  786
  827
  871
  917
  965
  1,015
  1,067
  1,122
  1,180
  1,241
  1,304
  1,371
  1,441
  1,514
  1,591
  1,671
  1,756
  1,845
  1,938
  2,036
  2,138
  2,246
  2,359
Working capital, $m
  116
  -319
  -337
  -355
  -375
  -395
  -417
  -439
  -463
  -487
  -513
  -540
  -568
  -597
  -628
  -661
  -695
  -730
  -768
  -807
  -848
  -891
  -936
  -984
  -1,034
  -1,086
  -1,141
  -1,198
  -1,259
  -1,322
  -1,389
Total debt, $m
  693
  717
  795
  876
  960
  1,049
  1,142
  1,238
  1,340
  1,446
  1,557
  1,673
  1,795
  1,923
  2,057
  2,197
  2,344
  2,499
  2,660
  2,830
  3,008
  3,194
  3,390
  3,596
  3,811
  4,037
  4,275
  4,524
  4,785
  5,059
  5,347
Total liabilities, $m
  1,355
  1,379
  1,457
  1,538
  1,622
  1,711
  1,804
  1,900
  2,002
  2,108
  2,219
  2,335
  2,457
  2,585
  2,719
  2,859
  3,006
  3,161
  3,322
  3,492
  3,670
  3,856
  4,052
  4,258
  4,473
  4,699
  4,937
  5,186
  5,447
  5,721
  6,009
Total equity, $m
  742
  343
  362
  382
  403
  425
  448
  472
  497
  524
  551
  580
  611
  642
  676
  710
  747
  785
  825
  868
  912
  958
  1,007
  1,058
  1,111
  1,167
  1,226
  1,288
  1,353
  1,421
  1,493
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,097
  1,722
  1,819
  1,920
  2,025
  2,136
  2,252
  2,372
  2,499
  2,632
  2,770
  2,915
  3,068
  3,227
  3,395
  3,569
  3,753
  3,946
  4,147
  4,360
  4,582
  4,814
  5,059
  5,316
  5,584
  5,866
  6,163
  6,474
  6,800
  7,142
  7,502
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.934
  2.090
  2.200
  2.290
  2.380
  2.470
  2.550
  2.620
  2.690
  2.760
  2.820
  2.880
  2.940
  2.990
  3.050
  3.090
  3.140
  3.180
  3.220
  3.260
  3.300
  3.330
  3.370
  3.400
  3.430
  3.460
  3.490
  3.510
  3.540
  3.560
  3.580
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.168
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  203
  217
  231
  245
  259
  275
  291
  307
  325
  343
  363
  425
  446
  468
  491
  515
  541
  568
  596
  625
  656
  688
  722
  758
  795
  834
  875
  918
  964
  1,011
  1,061
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  120
  117
  121
  124
  128
  132
  136
  140
  145
  149
  154
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  131
  138
  145
  152
  160
  168
  177
  186
  195
  205
  215
  226
  238
  250
  262
Funds from operations, $m
  463
  335
  351
  369
  387
  407
  427
  448
  470
  493
  517
  526
  553
  581
  610
  640
  672
  705
  740
  777
  816
  856
  899
  943
  990
  1,039
  1,091
  1,145
  1,201
  1,261
  1,323
Change in working capital, $m
  18
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -67
Cash from operations, $m
  445
  352
  369
  388
  407
  427
  448
  470
  493
  517
  542
  553
  581
  610
  641
  672
  706
  741
  778
  816
  857
  899
  944
  991
  1,040
  1,091
  1,145
  1,202
  1,262
  1,324
  1,390
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -238
  -250
New CAPEX, $m
  -54
  -30
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
Cash from investing activities, $m
  1
  -87
  -90
  -96
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -245
  -258
  -271
  -284
  -298
  -313
  -329
  -346
  -363
Free cash flow, $m
  446
  265
  279
  292
  307
  321
  337
  353
  370
  388
  407
  411
  431
  453
  475
  499
  523
  549
  576
  605
  635
  666
  699
  733
  769
  807
  847
  889
  933
  979
  1,027
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  350
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
  205
  216
  226
  237
  249
  261
  274
  288
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -905
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -593
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
  205
  216
  226
  237
  249
  261
  274
  288
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -151
  339
  356
  373
  391
  410
  430
  450
  472
  494
  518
  527
  553
  581
  609
  639
  671
  704
  738
  775
  813
  853
  895
  939
  985
  1,034
  1,085
  1,138
  1,194
  1,253
  1,315
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  634
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  418
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  739
  337
  353
  370
  388
  407
  426
  447
  468
  490
  498
  523
  549
  576
  604
  634
  665
  698
  732
  768
  806
  846
  888
  931
  977
  1,026
  1,076
  1,129
  1,185
  1,244
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  708
  309
  307
  305
  301
  295
  288
  279
  269
  257
  237
  223
  209
  193
  177
  161
  145
  129
  113
  98
  83
  70
  58
  47
  38
  30
  23
  17
  13
  9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Cadence Design Systems, Inc. provides solutions that enable its customers to design electronic products. The Company's product categories include Functional Verification, Digital integrated circuits (IC) Design and Signoff, Custom IC Design and Verification, System Interconnect and Analysis, and intellectual property (IP). Functional verification products are used to verify that the circuitry or the software designed will perform as intended. Digital IC design offerings are used to create representations of a digital circuit or an IC that can be verified for correctness prior to implementation. Custom IC design and verification offerings are used to create schematic and physical representations of circuits down to the transistor level for analog and memory designs. System Interconnect and Analysis offerings are used to develop printed circuit boards and IC packages. Design IP offerings consist of functional blocks, which customers integrate into their ICs for the development process.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cadence Design Systems (CDNS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 57.3
Price to Sales 6.4
Price to Book 15.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 26.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 29.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 20%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 86.7%
Total Debt to Equity 93.4%
Interest Coverage 12
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Return On Total Capital 12.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Return On Equity 19.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 85.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 85.9%
EBITDA Margin 20.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
Operating Margin 13.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Net Profit Margin 11.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Effective Tax Rate 14.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

CDNS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CDNS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1816 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cadence Design Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Cadence Design Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CDNS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CDNS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cadence Design Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cadence Design Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CDNS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CDNS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for Cadence Design Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cadence Design Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CDNS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CDNS are equal to 28.2%.

Life of production assets of 9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cadence Design Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CDNS is equal to -16.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $742 million for Cadence Design Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 281.818 million for Cadence Design Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cadence Design Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $11.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Cadence Design Systems to join S&P 500   [05:43PM  MarketWatch]
▶ Here are the best places to interview for a job in the Bay Area   [Aug-15-17 08:30PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Cadence beats Street 2Q forecasts   [Jul-24-17 09:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ Cadence Design Systems Edges Q2 Views, But Q3 Guidance Misses   [06:06PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Software Design Firm Cadence Reports Late   [10:36AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Cadence Elects Maggie Wilderotter to Board of Directors   [Jun-28-17 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ The 10 Highest-Paying Silicon Valley Companies   [May-16-17 06:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Cadence Design Joins Elite List Of Stocks With 95-Plus Composite Rating   [Apr-26-17 11:03AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Cadence Design Stock Slips On Disappointing Guidance   [Apr-25-17 04:55PM  Investor's Business Daily]
Financial statements of CDNS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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