Intrinsic value of Cedar Realty Trust - CDR

Previous Close

$4.58

  Intrinsic Value

$45.93

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+903%

Previous close

$4.58

 
Intrinsic value

$45.93

 
Up/down potential

+903%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as CDR.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CDR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  149
  152
  156
  161
  166
  171
  177
  183
  190
  197
  205
  213
  222
  231
  241
  252
  263
  275
  288
  301
  315
  329
  345
  361
  378
  397
  416
  436
  457
  479
Variable operating expenses, $m
  105
  107
  110
  113
  116
  120
  124
  128
  133
  138
  141
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  216
  227
  237
  248
  260
  273
  286
  300
  314
  329
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  105
  107
  110
  113
  116
  120
  124
  128
  133
  138
  141
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  216
  227
  237
  248
  260
  273
  286
  300
  314
  329
Operating income, $m
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  149
EBITDA, $m
  176
  180
  184
  190
  195
  202
  208
  216
  224
  232
  242
  251
  262
  273
  285
  297
  311
  324
  339
  355
  371
  389
  407
  426
  446
  468
  490
  514
  539
  565
Interest expense (income), $m
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Earnings before tax, $m
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
Tax expense, $m
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
Net income, $m
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  -455
  -466
  -478
  -491
  -506
  -523
  -540
  -560
  -580
  -603
  -626
  -652
  -679
  -708
  -738
  -771
  -805
  -841
  -879
  -920
  -962
  -1,007
  -1,055
  -1,105
  -1,157
  -1,213
  -1,271
  -1,332
  -1,397
  -1,465
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  -455
  -466
  -478
  -491
  -506
  -523
  -540
  -560
  -580
  -603
  -626
  -652
  -679
  -708
  -738
  -771
  -805
  -841
  -879
  -920
  -962
  -1,007
  -1,055
  -1,105
  -1,157
  -1,213
  -1,271
  -1,332
  -1,397
  -1,465
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  -0.327
  -0.326
  -0.326
  -0.328
  -0.328
  -0.327
  -0.328
  -0.327
  -0.328
  -0.327
  -0.327
  -0.327
  -0.327
  -0.326
  -0.327
  -0.327
  -0.327
  -0.327
  -0.328
  -0.327
  -0.327
  -0.327
  -0.327
  -0.327
  -0.327
  -0.327
  -0.327
  -0.327
  -0.327
  -0.327
Average production assets, $m
  1,292
  1,322
  1,356
  1,394
  1,436
  1,483
  1,533
  1,588
  1,647
  1,710
  1,777
  1,850
  1,926
  2,008
  2,095
  2,186
  2,284
  2,386
  2,495
  2,610
  2,731
  2,858
  2,993
  3,134
  3,284
  3,441
  3,606
  3,780
  3,963
  4,156
Working capital, $m
  -635
  -649
  -666
  -685
  -705
  -728
  -753
  -780
  -809
  -840
  -873
  -909
  -946
  -986
  -1,029
  -1,074
  -1,122
  -1,172
  -1,225
  -1,282
  -1,341
  -1,404
  -1,470
  -1,540
  -1,613
  -1,690
  -1,771
  -1,857
  -1,947
  -2,041
Total debt, $m
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
Total liabilities, $m
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
Total equity, $m
  -449
  -460
  -472
  -485
  -500
  -516
  -533
  -552
  -573
  -595
  -618
  -643
  -670
  -699
  -729
  -761
  -794
  -830
  -868
  -908
  -950
  -994
  -1,041
  -1,090
  -1,142
  -1,197
  -1,254
  -1,315
  -1,379
  -1,446
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  -455
  -466
  -478
  -491
  -507
  -523
  -540
  -559
  -581
  -603
  -626
  -651
  -679
  -708
  -739
  -771
  -804
  -841
  -879
  -920
  -963
  -1,007
  -1,055
  -1,104
  -1,157
  -1,213
  -1,271
  -1,332
  -1,397
  -1,465
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987
  0.987

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  132
  135
  138
  142
  146
  151
  156
  161
  167
  173
  178
  185
  193
  201
  209
  219
  228
  239
  249
  261
  273
  286
  299
  313
  328
  344
  361
  378
  396
  416
Funds from operations, $m
  164
  168
  172
  177
  182
  188
  195
  201
  209
  217
  225
  234
  244
  254
  265
  276
  289
  302
  315
  330
  345
  361
  378
  396
  415
  435
  456
  478
  501
  525
Change in working capital, $m
  -12
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
Cash from operations, $m
  176
  182
  189
  196
  203
  211
  219
  228
  238
  248
  258
  269
  281
  294
  307
  322
  336
  352
  369
  386
  405
  424
  444
  466
  488
  512
  537
  563
  591
  620
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -127
  -129
  -132
  -136
  -139
  -144
  -148
  -153
  -159
  -165
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -201
  -209
  -219
  -228
  -239
  -249
  -261
  -273
  -286
  -299
  -313
  -328
  -344
  -361
  -378
  -396
New CAPEX, $m
  -25
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -193
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -181
  -190
  -198
  -208
  -218
  -228
  -239
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -288
  -301
  -316
  -331
  -348
  -364
  -382
  -401
  -420
  -441
  -462
  -485
  -509
  -535
  -561
  -589
Free cash flow, $m
  25
  23
  23
  22
  21
  21
  21
  20
  20
  20
  19
  19
  20
  20
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  16
  13
  11
  8
  6
  5
  3
  1
  -1
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  8
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  441
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  466
  23
  22
  22
  21
  21
  20
  20
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
Discount rate, %
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
  0.00
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  466
  23
  22
  22
  21
  21
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  22
  24
  25
  27
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  67
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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  100.0
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  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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  100.0
  100.0

Cedar Realty Trust, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company focuses on ownership and operation of grocery-anchored shopping centers straddling the Washington District of Columbia (DC) to Boston corridor. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned and managed a portfolio of 61 operating properties (excluding properties held for sale) totaling approximately 9.1 million square feet of gross leasable area (GLA). The Company focuses its investment activities on grocery-anchored shopping centers. The Company's properties portfolio comprises 26 properties in Pennsylvania, eight properties in Massachusetts, seven properties in Connecticut, seven properties in Maryland / Washington, D.C, eight properties in Virginia, four properties in New Jersey and one property in New York. The Company's 106 are going to expire in the year 2017. The Company conducts all of its businesses through the Cedar Realty Trust Partnership L.P. (the Operating Partnership).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cedar Realty Trust (CDR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 41.8
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 104.6%
Total Debt to Equity 104.6%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Return On Total Capital 0.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Return On Equity 1.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 70.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 70.3%
EBITDA Margin 50.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.7%
Operating Margin 23.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Net Profit Margin 6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 344.4%

CDR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CDR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $146 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cedar Realty Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Cedar Realty Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CDR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 0%, whose default value for CDR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cedar Realty Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cedar Realty Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CDR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 70.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CDR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Cedar Realty Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cedar Realty Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CDR stock is equal to 2.4%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CDR are equal to 867.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cedar Realty Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CDR is equal to -426.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Cedar Realty Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 84 million for Cedar Realty Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cedar Realty Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Cedar: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ Cedar: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-03-18 05:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Cedar Realty Trust Chief Faces Sexual-Harassment Allegations   [Apr-18-18 12:17AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Cedar Realty Trust CEO Faces Sexual-Harassment Allegations   [Apr-17-18 11:33AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Is It The Right Time To Buy Cedar Realty Trust Inc (NYSE:CDR)?   [Apr-11-18 09:35PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Cedar reports 4Q results   [Feb-08-18 06:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ GGP Inc. (GGP) Jumps: Stock Rises 8.3%   [Nov-14-17 08:31AM  Zacks]
▶ Taubman Centers (TCO) Jumps: Stock Rises 6.5%   [Nov-10-17 08:46AM  Zacks]
▶ Macerich (MAC) Catches Eye: Stock Jumps 8.4%   [Nov-08-17 08:51AM  Zacks]
▶ Cedar reports 3Q results   [Nov-02-17 04:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Cedar Realty Trust Issues Statement   [10:52AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Cedar reports 2Q results   [Aug-05-17 01:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ Cedar reports 2Q results   [Aug-04-17 10:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ Cedar reports 1Q results   [May-04-17 05:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ Stocks Declining to Their 3-Year Lows   [Mar-04-17 07:19PM  GuruFocus.com]
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