Intrinsic value of Celanese Corporation - CE

Previous Close

$107.06

  Intrinsic Value

$133.56

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+25%

Previous close

$107.06

 
Intrinsic value

$133.56

 
Up/down potential

+25%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 13.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
Revenue, $m
  7,584
  8,032
  8,498
  8,985
  9,494
  10,024
  10,579
  11,158
  11,764
  12,398
  13,061
  13,755
  14,482
  15,243
  16,040
  16,875
  17,750
  18,667
  19,628
  20,636
  21,693
  22,801
  23,964
  25,183
  26,463
  27,805
  29,213
  30,690
  32,241
  33,868
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,019
  4,248
  4,487
  4,736
  4,996
  5,268
  5,552
  5,849
  6,159
  6,483
  6,686
  7,041
  7,413
  7,803
  8,211
  8,638
  9,086
  9,555
  10,048
  10,563
  11,105
  11,672
  12,267
  12,891
  13,546
  14,233
  14,954
  15,710
  16,504
  17,337
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  2,110
  2,157
  2,204
  2,253
  2,302
  2,353
  2,405
  2,458
  2,512
  2,567
  2,623
  2,681
  2,740
  2,800
  2,862
  2,925
  2,989
  3,055
  3,122
  3,191
  3,261
  3,333
  3,406
  3,481
  3,558
  3,636
  3,716
  3,798
  3,881
  3,967
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,129
  6,405
  6,691
  6,989
  7,298
  7,621
  7,957
  8,307
  8,671
  9,050
  9,309
  9,722
  10,153
  10,603
  11,073
  11,563
  12,075
  12,610
  13,170
  13,754
  14,366
  15,005
  15,673
  16,372
  17,104
  17,869
  18,670
  19,508
  20,385
  21,304
Operating income, $m
  1,455
  1,627
  1,807
  1,996
  2,195
  2,403
  2,622
  2,852
  3,094
  3,348
  3,752
  4,033
  4,328
  4,640
  4,967
  5,312
  5,674
  6,056
  6,458
  6,881
  7,327
  7,796
  8,291
  8,811
  9,359
  9,935
  10,543
  11,182
  11,856
  12,564
EBITDA, $m
  1,914
  2,105
  2,305
  2,515
  2,735
  2,966
  3,208
  3,463
  3,730
  4,011
  4,307
  4,617
  4,944
  5,287
  5,648
  6,028
  6,428
  6,849
  7,292
  7,758
  8,249
  8,765
  9,309
  9,881
  10,483
  11,117
  11,784
  12,486
  13,225
  14,003
Interest expense (income), $m
  130
  191
  212
  233
  255
  279
  303
  328
  355
  382
  411
  442
  473
  507
  541
  578
  616
  656
  698
  741
  787
  836
  886
  939
  995
  1,053
  1,114
  1,178
  1,246
  1,316
  1,390
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,264
  1,415
  1,574
  1,741
  1,916
  2,100
  2,294
  2,497
  2,711
  2,936
  3,310
  3,559
  3,822
  4,098
  4,389
  4,696
  5,019
  5,359
  5,717
  6,094
  6,492
  6,910
  7,351
  7,816
  8,306
  8,821
  9,364
  9,937
  10,539
  11,174
Tax expense, $m
  341
  382
  425
  470
  517
  567
  619
  674
  732
  793
  894
  961
  1,032
  1,107
  1,185
  1,268
  1,355
  1,447
  1,544
  1,645
  1,753
  1,866
  1,985
  2,110
  2,243
  2,382
  2,528
  2,683
  2,846
  3,017
Net income, $m
  923
  1,033
  1,149
  1,271
  1,399
  1,533
  1,675
  1,823
  1,979
  2,144
  2,416
  2,598
  2,790
  2,992
  3,204
  3,428
  3,664
  3,912
  4,173
  4,449
  4,739
  5,045
  5,367
  5,706
  6,063
  6,440
  6,836
  7,254
  7,694
  8,157

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  9,875
  10,458
  11,066
  11,700
  12,361
  13,052
  13,774
  14,529
  15,318
  16,143
  17,007
  17,910
  18,856
  19,847
  20,885
  21,972
  23,112
  24,306
  25,557
  26,870
  28,246
  29,689
  31,203
  32,791
  34,456
  36,204
  38,038
  39,962
  41,981
  44,099
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  9,875
  10,458
  11,066
  11,700
  12,361
  13,052
  13,774
  14,529
  15,318
  16,143
  17,007
  17,910
  18,856
  19,847
  20,885
  21,972
  23,112
  24,306
  25,557
  26,870
  28,246
  29,689
  31,203
  32,791
  34,456
  36,204
  38,038
  39,962
  41,981
  44,099
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
Average production assets, $m
  4,672
  4,948
  5,235
  5,535
  5,848
  6,175
  6,516
  6,873
  7,247
  7,637
  8,046
  8,473
  8,921
  9,389
  9,880
  10,395
  10,934
  11,499
  12,091
  12,712
  13,363
  14,046
  14,762
  15,513
  16,301
  17,128
  17,995
  18,905
  19,861
  20,863
Working capital, $m
  1,259
  1,333
  1,411
  1,492
  1,576
  1,664
  1,756
  1,852
  1,953
  2,058
  2,168
  2,283
  2,404
  2,530
  2,663
  2,801
  2,946
  3,099
  3,258
  3,426
  3,601
  3,785
  3,978
  4,180
  4,393
  4,616
  4,849
  5,095
  5,352
  5,622
Total debt, $m
  3,917
  4,313
  4,727
  5,158
  5,608
  6,078
  6,569
  7,082
  7,618
  8,179
  8,767
  9,381
  10,024
  10,698
  11,404
  12,143
  12,918
  13,730
  14,581
  15,474
  16,409
  17,391
  18,420
  19,500
  20,632
  21,821
  23,068
  24,376
  25,749
  27,190
Total liabilities, $m
  6,715
  7,111
  7,525
  7,956
  8,406
  8,876
  9,367
  9,880
  10,416
  10,977
  11,565
  12,179
  12,822
  13,496
  14,202
  14,941
  15,716
  16,528
  17,379
  18,272
  19,207
  20,189
  21,218
  22,298
  23,430
  24,619
  25,866
  27,174
  28,547
  29,988
Total equity, $m
  3,160
  3,347
  3,541
  3,744
  3,956
  4,177
  4,408
  4,649
  4,902
  5,166
  5,442
  5,731
  6,034
  6,351
  6,683
  7,031
  7,396
  7,778
  8,178
  8,598
  9,039
  9,501
  9,985
  10,493
  11,026
  11,585
  12,172
  12,788
  13,434
  14,112
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  9,875
  10,458
  11,066
  11,700
  12,362
  13,053
  13,775
  14,529
  15,318
  16,143
  17,007
  17,910
  18,856
  19,847
  20,885
  21,972
  23,112
  24,306
  25,557
  26,870
  28,246
  29,690
  31,203
  32,791
  34,456
  36,204
  38,038
  39,962
  41,981
  44,100
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.240
  1.290
  1.330
  1.380
  1.420
  1.460
  1.490
  1.520
  1.550
  1.580
  1.610
  1.640
  1.660
  1.680
  1.710
  1.730
  1.750
  1.770
  1.780
  1.800
  1.820
  1.830
  1.840
  1.860
  1.870
  1.880
  1.900
  1.910
  1.920
  1.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  923
  1,033
  1,149
  1,271
  1,399
  1,533
  1,675
  1,823
  1,979
  2,144
  2,416
  2,598
  2,790
  2,992
  3,204
  3,428
  3,664
  3,912
  4,173
  4,449
  4,739
  5,045
  5,367
  5,706
  6,063
  6,440
  6,836
  7,254
  7,694
  8,157
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  459
  478
  498
  518
  540
  563
  586
  611
  636
  663
  555
  584
  615
  648
  681
  717
  754
  793
  834
  877
  922
  969
  1,018
  1,070
  1,124
  1,181
  1,241
  1,304
  1,370
  1,439
Funds from operations, $m
  1,382
  1,511
  1,647
  1,789
  1,939
  2,096
  2,261
  2,434
  2,616
  2,807
  2,971
  3,183
  3,405
  3,639
  3,886
  4,145
  4,418
  4,705
  5,007
  5,325
  5,660
  6,013
  6,385
  6,776
  7,187
  7,621
  8,077
  8,558
  9,063
  9,596
Change in working capital, $m
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  139
  145
  152
  160
  167
  175
  184
  193
  202
  212
  223
  234
  245
  257
  270
Cash from operations, $m
  1,310
  1,437
  1,569
  1,709
  1,855
  2,008
  2,169
  2,338
  2,515
  2,702
  2,861
  3,067
  3,285
  3,513
  3,753
  4,006
  4,272
  4,553
  4,848
  5,158
  5,485
  5,829
  6,192
  6,573
  6,975
  7,398
  7,843
  8,312
  8,806
  9,326
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -304
  -322
  -341
  -361
  -382
  -403
  -426
  -449
  -474
  -500
  -527
  -555
  -584
  -615
  -648
  -681
  -717
  -754
  -793
  -834
  -877
  -922
  -969
  -1,018
  -1,070
  -1,124
  -1,181
  -1,241
  -1,304
  -1,370
New CAPEX, $m
  -264
  -276
  -287
  -300
  -313
  -327
  -342
  -357
  -373
  -390
  -408
  -428
  -448
  -469
  -491
  -514
  -539
  -565
  -592
  -621
  -651
  -683
  -716
  -751
  -788
  -827
  -867
  -910
  -955
  -1,002
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -568
  -598
  -628
  -661
  -695
  -730
  -768
  -806
  -847
  -890
  -935
  -983
  -1,032
  -1,084
  -1,139
  -1,195
  -1,256
  -1,319
  -1,385
  -1,455
  -1,528
  -1,605
  -1,685
  -1,769
  -1,858
  -1,951
  -2,048
  -2,151
  -2,259
  -2,372
Free cash flow, $m
  743
  839
  941
  1,048
  1,160
  1,277
  1,401
  1,531
  1,668
  1,812
  1,926
  2,085
  2,253
  2,429
  2,615
  2,810
  3,016
  3,234
  3,462
  3,703
  3,957
  4,225
  4,507
  4,804
  5,117
  5,447
  5,795
  6,161
  6,547
  6,954
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  386
  396
  413
  431
  450
  470
  491
  513
  537
  561
  587
  615
  643
  674
  706
  739
  775
  812
  851
  892
  936
  981
  1,029
  1,080
  1,133
  1,188
  1,247
  1,308
  1,373
  1,441
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  386
  396
  413
  431
  450
  470
  491
  513
  537
  561
  587
  615
  643
  674
  706
  739
  775
  812
  851
  892
  936
  981
  1,029
  1,080
  1,133
  1,188
  1,247
  1,308
  1,373
  1,441
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,129
  1,235
  1,354
  1,479
  1,610
  1,747
  1,892
  2,044
  2,204
  2,373
  2,513
  2,700
  2,896
  3,103
  3,320
  3,550
  3,791
  4,046
  4,314
  4,596
  4,893
  5,206
  5,536
  5,884
  6,250
  6,635
  7,042
  7,469
  7,920
  8,394
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -176
  -186
  -194
  -203
  -212
  -221
  -231
  -241
  -252
  -264
  -276
  -289
  -303
  -317
  -332
  -348
  -365
  -382
  -401
  -420
  -440
  -462
  -484
  -508
  -533
  -559
  -587
  -616
  -646
  -678
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  953
  1,049
  1,160
  1,276
  1,398
  1,526
  1,661
  1,803
  1,952
  2,109
  2,237
  2,410
  2,593
  2,786
  2,988
  3,202
  3,427
  3,663
  3,913
  4,176
  4,453
  4,744
  5,052
  5,376
  5,717
  6,076
  6,455
  6,854
  7,274
  7,716
Discount rate, %
  5.40
  5.67
  5.95
  6.25
  6.56
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.04
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.16
  21.17
  22.23
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  904
  939
  975
  1,001
  1,017
  1,023
  1,019
  1,003
  978
  943
  885
  835
  779
  717
  651
  584
  515
  448
  384
  323
  268
  217
  173
  135
  103
  77
  56
  40
  28
  19
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Celanese Corporation (Celanese) is a technology and specialty materials company. The Company's segments include Advanced Engineered Materials, Consumer Specialties, Industrial Specialties, Acetyl Intermediates and Other Activities. The Advanced Engineered Materials segment includes the Company's engineered materials business and certain affiliates. The Consumer Specialties segment includes the Company's cellulose derivatives and food ingredients businesses, which serve consumer-driven applications. The Industrial Specialties segment includes the Company's emulsion polymers and ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) polymers businesses. The Acetyl Intermediates segment includes the Company's intermediate chemistry business, which produces and supplies acetyl products, including acetic acid, vinyl acetate monomer (VAM), acetic anhydride and acetate esters. The Company has operations in North America, Europe and Asia. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had 30 global production facilities.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Celanese Corporation (CE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.7
Price to Sales 2.8
Price to Book 5.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -52.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -8.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 6
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 111.7%
Total Debt to Equity 116.2%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Return On Total Capital 16.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Return On Equity 36.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.5%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.4%
EBITDA Margin 27%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.5%
Operating Margin 16.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 19.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Net Profit Margin 16.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Effective Tax Rate 11.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.8%
Payout Ratio 22.3%

CE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7155 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Celanese Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Celanese Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.4%, whose default value for CE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Celanese Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Celanese Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 53.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $2065 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Celanese Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Celanese Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CE are equal to 61.6%.

Life of production assets of 14.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Celanese Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CE is equal to 16.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2984 million for Celanese Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 127.828 million for Celanese Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Celanese Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $13.7 billion.

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