Intrinsic value of China Eastern Airlines ADR - CEA

Previous Close

$31.80

  Intrinsic Value

$0.19

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-99%

Previous close

$31.80

 
Intrinsic value

$0.19

 
Up/down potential

-99%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CEA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 417.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  14,526
  14,860
  15,242
  15,671
  16,146
  16,667
  17,235
  17,849
  18,511
  19,221
  19,981
  20,792
  21,656
  22,573
  23,547
  24,579
  25,671
  26,826
  28,047
  29,336
  30,695
  32,129
  33,641
  35,234
  36,911
  38,677
  40,536
  42,492
  44,550
  46,714
Variable operating expenses, $m
  5,487
  5,610
  5,750
  5,907
  6,081
  6,272
  6,479
  6,704
  6,947
  7,207
  7,318
  7,615
  7,931
  8,267
  8,624
  9,002
  9,402
  9,825
  10,272
  10,744
  11,242
  11,767
  12,321
  12,904
  13,518
  14,165
  14,846
  15,563
  16,316
  17,109
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  7,371
  7,533
  7,699
  7,868
  8,041
  8,218
  8,399
  8,583
  8,772
  8,965
  9,163
  9,364
  9,570
  9,781
  9,996
  10,216
  10,440
  10,670
  10,905
  11,145
  11,390
  11,641
  11,897
  12,158
  12,426
  12,699
  12,979
  13,264
  13,556
  13,854
Total operating expenses, $m
  12,858
  13,143
  13,449
  13,775
  14,122
  14,490
  14,878
  15,287
  15,719
  16,172
  16,481
  16,979
  17,501
  18,048
  18,620
  19,218
  19,842
  20,495
  21,177
  21,889
  22,632
  23,408
  24,218
  25,062
  25,944
  26,864
  27,825
  28,827
  29,872
  30,963
Operating income, $m
  1,668
  1,717
  1,794
  1,896
  2,024
  2,177
  2,356
  2,561
  2,792
  3,049
  3,501
  3,813
  4,154
  4,525
  4,927
  5,361
  5,829
  6,331
  6,870
  7,447
  8,063
  8,722
  9,423
  10,171
  10,967
  11,813
  12,711
  13,665
  14,678
  15,751
EBITDA, $m
  4,183
  4,286
  4,424
  4,596
  4,801
  5,038
  5,309
  5,613
  5,950
  6,322
  6,730
  7,173
  7,654
  8,173
  8,732
  9,333
  9,977
  10,666
  11,402
  12,187
  13,024
  13,914
  14,860
  15,865
  16,931
  18,063
  19,262
  20,532
  21,877
  23,300
Interest expense (income), $m
  464
  916
  906
  909
  912
  915
  919
  923
  927
  932
  937
  943
  949
  955
  962
  969
  976
  984
  993
  1,002
  1,011
  1,022
  1,032
  1,043
  1,055
  1,068
  1,081
  1,094
  1,109
  1,124
  1,140
Earnings before tax, $m
  752
  811
  885
  984
  1,109
  1,259
  1,434
  1,634
  1,860
  2,112
  2,558
  2,865
  3,199
  3,564
  3,959
  4,385
  4,844
  5,338
  5,868
  6,435
  7,042
  7,689
  8,380
  9,116
  9,899
  10,732
  11,617
  12,556
  13,553
  14,611
Tax expense, $m
  203
  219
  239
  266
  299
  340
  387
  441
  502
  570
  691
  773
  864
  962
  1,069
  1,184
  1,308
  1,441
  1,584
  1,738
  1,901
  2,076
  2,263
  2,461
  2,673
  2,898
  3,137
  3,390
  3,659
  3,945
Net income, $m
  549
  592
  646
  719
  810
  919
  1,047
  1,193
  1,358
  1,542
  1,867
  2,091
  2,336
  2,602
  2,890
  3,201
  3,536
  3,897
  4,284
  4,698
  5,141
  5,613
  6,117
  6,655
  7,226
  7,834
  8,480
  9,166
  9,894
  10,666

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,333
  2,387
  2,448
  2,517
  2,594
  2,677
  2,769
  2,867
  2,974
  3,088
  3,210
  3,340
  3,479
  3,626
  3,783
  3,948
  4,124
  4,309
  4,506
  4,713
  4,931
  5,161
  5,404
  5,660
  5,929
  6,213
  6,512
  6,826
  7,157
  7,504
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,333
  2,387
  2,448
  2,517
  2,594
  2,677
  2,769
  2,867
  2,974
  3,088
  3,210
  3,340
  3,479
  3,626
  3,783
  3,948
  4,124
  4,309
  4,506
  4,713
  4,931
  5,161
  5,404
  5,660
  5,929
  6,213
  6,512
  6,826
  7,157
  7,504
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  6.226
  6.225
  6.226
  6.226
  6.224
  6.226
  6.224
  6.226
  6.224
  6.224
  6.225
  6.225
  6.225
  6.225
  6.224
  6.226
  6.225
  6.226
  6.224
  6.224
  6.225
  6.225
  6.225
  6.225
  6.226
  6.225
  6.225
  6.225
  6.225
  6.225
Average production assets, $m
  23,474
  24,014
  24,631
  25,324
  26,091
  26,934
  27,851
  28,844
  29,914
  31,062
  32,290
  33,600
  34,996
  36,479
  38,052
  39,720
  41,485
  43,352
  45,324
  47,406
  49,604
  51,921
  54,364
  56,938
  59,648
  62,502
  65,506
  68,667
  71,993
  75,491
Working capital, $m
  -3,138
  -3,210
  -3,292
  -3,385
  -3,487
  -3,600
  -3,723
  -3,855
  -3,998
  -4,152
  -4,316
  -4,491
  -4,678
  -4,876
  -5,086
  -5,309
  -5,545
  -5,795
  -6,058
  -6,337
  -6,630
  -6,940
  -7,266
  -7,610
  -7,973
  -8,354
  -8,756
  -9,178
  -9,623
  -10,090
Total debt, $m
  16,776
  16,825
  16,880
  16,942
  17,011
  17,086
  17,168
  17,257
  17,353
  17,455
  17,565
  17,682
  17,807
  17,940
  18,081
  18,230
  18,388
  18,555
  18,731
  18,918
  19,114
  19,321
  19,540
  19,770
  20,013
  20,268
  20,537
  20,820
  21,117
  21,430
Total liabilities, $m
  2,100
  2,148
  2,204
  2,266
  2,334
  2,410
  2,492
  2,581
  2,676
  2,779
  2,889
  3,006
  3,131
  3,264
  3,404
  3,554
  3,712
  3,879
  4,055
  4,241
  4,438
  4,645
  4,864
  5,094
  5,337
  5,592
  5,861
  6,143
  6,441
  6,754
Total equity, $m
  233
  239
  245
  252
  259
  268
  277
  287
  297
  309
  321
  334
  348
  363
  378
  395
  412
  431
  451
  471
  493
  516
  540
  566
  593
  621
  651
  683
  716
  750
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,333
  2,387
  2,449
  2,518
  2,593
  2,678
  2,769
  2,868
  2,973
  3,088
  3,210
  3,340
  3,479
  3,627
  3,782
  3,949
  4,124
  4,310
  4,506
  4,712
  4,931
  5,161
  5,404
  5,660
  5,930
  6,213
  6,512
  6,826
  7,157
  7,504
Debt-to-equity ratio
  71.890
  70.480
  68.940
  67.300
  65.580
  63.820
  62.010
  60.180
  58.350
  56.530
  54.720
  52.940
  51.190
  49.470
  47.800
  46.170
  44.590
  43.060
  41.570
  40.140
  38.760
  37.430
  36.160
  34.930
  33.750
  32.620
  31.540
  30.500
  29.510
  28.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  549
  592
  646
  719
  810
  919
  1,047
  1,193
  1,358
  1,542
  1,867
  2,091
  2,336
  2,602
  2,890
  3,201
  3,536
  3,897
  4,284
  4,698
  5,141
  5,613
  6,117
  6,655
  7,226
  7,834
  8,480
  9,166
  9,894
  10,666
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2,515
  2,569
  2,630
  2,700
  2,777
  2,861
  2,953
  3,052
  3,159
  3,274
  3,229
  3,360
  3,500
  3,648
  3,805
  3,972
  4,148
  4,335
  4,532
  4,741
  4,960
  5,192
  5,436
  5,694
  5,965
  6,250
  6,551
  6,867
  7,199
  7,549
Funds from operations, $m
  3,064
  3,161
  3,277
  3,418
  3,586
  3,780
  3,999
  4,245
  4,516
  4,815
  5,096
  5,451
  5,835
  6,249
  6,695
  7,173
  7,685
  8,232
  8,816
  9,438
  10,101
  10,805
  11,554
  12,348
  13,191
  14,084
  15,031
  16,033
  17,093
  18,215
Change in working capital, $m
  -62
  -72
  -82
  -93
  -103
  -113
  -123
  -133
  -143
  -153
  -164
  -175
  -187
  -198
  -210
  -223
  -236
  -250
  -264
  -278
  -294
  -310
  -326
  -344
  -362
  -381
  -402
  -423
  -445
  -468
Cash from operations, $m
  3,125
  3,233
  3,359
  3,511
  3,689
  3,892
  4,122
  4,377
  4,659
  4,969
  5,261
  5,626
  6,022
  6,448
  6,905
  7,396
  7,921
  8,482
  9,080
  9,717
  10,395
  11,115
  11,880
  12,692
  13,553
  14,466
  15,432
  16,455
  17,538
  18,683
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2,302
  -2,347
  -2,401
  -2,463
  -2,532
  -2,609
  -2,693
  -2,785
  -2,884
  -2,991
  -3,106
  -3,229
  -3,360
  -3,500
  -3,648
  -3,805
  -3,972
  -4,148
  -4,335
  -4,532
  -4,741
  -4,960
  -5,192
  -5,436
  -5,694
  -5,965
  -6,250
  -6,551
  -6,867
  -7,199
New CAPEX, $m
  -458
  -540
  -617
  -693
  -768
  -842
  -917
  -993
  -1,070
  -1,148
  -1,228
  -1,311
  -1,395
  -1,483
  -1,574
  -1,668
  -1,765
  -1,867
  -1,972
  -2,083
  -2,197
  -2,317
  -2,443
  -2,574
  -2,711
  -2,854
  -3,004
  -3,161
  -3,326
  -3,498
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2,760
  -2,887
  -3,018
  -3,156
  -3,300
  -3,451
  -3,610
  -3,778
  -3,954
  -4,139
  -4,334
  -4,540
  -4,755
  -4,983
  -5,222
  -5,473
  -5,737
  -6,015
  -6,307
  -6,615
  -6,938
  -7,277
  -7,635
  -8,010
  -8,405
  -8,819
  -9,254
  -9,712
  -10,193
  -10,697
Free cash flow, $m
  366
  346
  341
  355
  389
  441
  511
  599
  705
  829
  926
  1,087
  1,266
  1,465
  1,684
  1,923
  2,184
  2,466
  2,772
  3,102
  3,457
  3,837
  4,246
  4,682
  5,149
  5,647
  6,178
  6,744
  7,346
  7,985
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -182
  48
  55
  62
  69
  75
  82
  89
  96
  103
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  176
  186
  197
  207
  219
  230
  243
  255
  269
  283
  298
  313
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -182
  48
  55
  62
  69
  75
  82
  89
  96
  103
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  176
  186
  197
  207
  219
  230
  243
  255
  269
  283
  298
  313
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  184
  394
  396
  417
  457
  516
  593
  688
  801
  932
  1,036
  1,204
  1,391
  1,598
  1,825
  2,072
  2,342
  2,633
  2,949
  3,288
  3,653
  4,045
  4,464
  4,913
  5,392
  5,902
  6,447
  7,027
  7,643
  8,298
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -227
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -43
  389
  390
  410
  450
  508
  584
  678
  790
  921
  1,024
  1,191
  1,377
  1,583
  1,809
  2,056
  2,324
  2,615
  2,929
  3,267
  3,631
  4,022
  4,440
  4,887
  5,365
  5,874
  6,417
  6,995
  7,610
  8,264
Discount rate, %
  12.60
  13.23
  13.89
  14.59
  15.32
  16.08
  16.89
  17.73
  18.62
  19.55
  20.52
  21.55
  22.63
  23.76
  24.95
  26.19
  27.50
  28.88
  30.32
  31.84
  33.43
  35.10
  36.86
  38.70
  40.64
  42.67
  44.80
  47.04
  49.39
  51.86
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -38
  303
  264
  238
  221
  208
  196
  184
  170
  154
  131
  115
  97
  80
  64
  50
  37
  27
  19
  13
  9
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited is a China-based company principally engaged in the provision of airline transportation and extended services. The Company is primarily engaged in the operation of airline passenger, cargo, mail delivery, tour operations and other extended transportation services. The Company also involves in general aviation transportation, aircraft maintenance, aviation equipment manufacturing and maintenance, air transport agency for domestic and foreign airlines, other related business, part-time insurance agent services, e-commerce, airline supermarket, as well as commodity wholesale and retail business. The Company operates its business in domestic market and to overseas markets.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  China Eastern Airlines ADR (CEA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 706.7
Price to Sales 32.2
Price to Book 64.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 127.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 1017.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 149.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 64.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 166.8%
Total Debt to Equity 238.2%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Total Capital 2.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Equity 10.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.2%
EBITDA Margin 22.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20%
Operating Margin 12.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Net Profit Margin 4.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Effective Tax Rate 23.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.2%
Payout Ratio 16.4%

CEA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CEA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $14241 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by China Eastern Airlines ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of China Eastern Airlines ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CEA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.6%, whose default value for CEA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of China Eastern Airlines ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of China Eastern Airlines ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CEA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 37.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $7212 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CEA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for China Eastern Airlines ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for China Eastern Airlines ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CEA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CEA are equal to 161.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in China Eastern Airlines ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CEA is equal to -21.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $6 million for China Eastern Airlines ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 13140 million for China Eastern Airlines ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of China Eastern Airlines ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $417.9 billion.

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