Intrinsic value of CNX Resources Corporation - CEIX

Previous Close

$29.98

  Intrinsic Value

$198.76

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+563%

Previous close

$29.98

 
Intrinsic value

$198.76

 
Up/down potential

+563%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CEIX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.50
  8.15
  7.83
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.67
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
Revenue, $m
  1,662
  1,798
  1,939
  2,085
  2,237
  2,395
  2,559
  2,730
  2,908
  3,093
  3,285
  3,485
  3,694
  3,912
  4,139
  4,375
  4,623
  4,881
  5,150
  5,432
  5,727
  6,035
  6,358
  6,695
  7,049
  7,419
  7,807
  8,213
  8,639
  9,085
Variable operating expenses, $m
  562
  608
  655
  705
  756
  810
  865
  923
  983
  1,045
  1,110
  1,178
  1,249
  1,322
  1,399
  1,479
  1,562
  1,650
  1,741
  1,836
  1,936
  2,040
  2,149
  2,263
  2,383
  2,508
  2,639
  2,776
  2,920
  3,071
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  771
  788
  805
  823
  841
  859
  878
  897
  917
  937
  958
  979
  1,001
  1,023
  1,045
  1,068
  1,092
  1,116
  1,140
  1,165
  1,191
  1,217
  1,244
  1,271
  1,299
  1,328
  1,357
  1,387
  1,417
  1,448
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,333
  1,396
  1,460
  1,528
  1,597
  1,669
  1,743
  1,820
  1,900
  1,982
  2,068
  2,157
  2,250
  2,345
  2,444
  2,547
  2,654
  2,766
  2,881
  3,001
  3,127
  3,257
  3,393
  3,534
  3,682
  3,836
  3,996
  4,163
  4,337
  4,519
Operating income, $m
  330
  403
  478
  558
  640
  726
  816
  910
  1,008
  1,110
  1,217
  1,328
  1,445
  1,567
  1,695
  1,828
  1,969
  2,115
  2,269
  2,431
  2,600
  2,778
  2,965
  3,161
  3,367
  3,584
  3,811
  4,050
  4,302
  4,566
EBITDA, $m
  548
  639
  733
  832
  934
  1,041
  1,153
  1,269
  1,390
  1,517
  1,649
  1,786
  1,931
  2,081
  2,239
  2,404
  2,576
  2,757
  2,946
  3,145
  3,353
  3,572
  3,801
  4,041
  4,294
  4,559
  4,837
  5,130
  5,437
  5,760
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  83
  102
  121
  142
  163
  185
  209
  232
  257
  283
  310
  338
  368
  398
  430
  463
  497
  533
  571
  610
  651
  694
  739
  786
  836
  887
  941
  998
  1,057
  1,119
Earnings before tax, $m
  247
  301
  357
  416
  477
  541
  608
  678
  751
  827
  907
  990
  1,077
  1,169
  1,265
  1,366
  1,471
  1,582
  1,698
  1,821
  1,949
  2,084
  2,226
  2,375
  2,532
  2,696
  2,870
  3,052
  3,245
  3,447
Tax expense, $m
  67
  81
  96
  112
  129
  146
  164
  183
  203
  223
  245
  267
  291
  316
  342
  369
  397
  427
  459
  492
  526
  563
  601
  641
  684
  728
  775
  824
  876
  931
Net income, $m
  180
  220
  261
  303
  348
  395
  444
  495
  548
  604
  662
  723
  787
  853
  923
  997
  1,074
  1,155
  1,240
  1,329
  1,423
  1,521
  1,625
  1,734
  1,848
  1,968
  2,095
  2,228
  2,369
  2,516

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,995
  3,239
  3,493
  3,757
  4,031
  4,316
  4,612
  4,919
  5,239
  5,573
  5,919
  6,280
  6,656
  7,048
  7,457
  7,884
  8,329
  8,794
  9,280
  9,788
  10,319
  10,874
  11,455
  12,064
  12,701
  13,368
  14,066
  14,798
  15,565
  16,369
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,995
  3,239
  3,493
  3,757
  4,031
  4,316
  4,612
  4,919
  5,239
  5,573
  5,919
  6,280
  6,656
  7,048
  7,457
  7,884
  8,329
  8,794
  9,280
  9,788
  10,319
  10,874
  11,455
  12,064
  12,701
  13,368
  14,066
  14,798
  15,565
  16,369
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
  0.555
Average production assets, $m
  2,294
  2,481
  2,675
  2,877
  3,087
  3,305
  3,532
  3,768
  4,013
  4,268
  4,533
  4,810
  5,098
  5,398
  5,711
  6,038
  6,379
  6,735
  7,107
  7,496
  7,903
  8,329
  8,774
  9,240
  9,727
  10,238
  10,773
  11,334
  11,921
  12,537
Working capital, $m
  -130
  -140
  -151
  -163
  -174
  -187
  -200
  -213
  -227
  -241
  -256
  -272
  -288
  -305
  -323
  -341
  -361
  -381
  -402
  -424
  -447
  -471
  -496
  -522
  -550
  -579
  -609
  -641
  -674
  -709
Total debt, $m
  1,070
  1,278
  1,494
  1,719
  1,952
  2,195
  2,447
  2,710
  2,982
  3,266
  3,561
  3,869
  4,189
  4,523
  4,872
  5,235
  5,615
  6,011
  6,425
  6,857
  7,310
  7,783
  8,278
  8,797
  9,339
  9,907
  10,503
  11,126
  11,780
  12,465
Total liabilities, $m
  2,552
  2,760
  2,976
  3,201
  3,434
  3,677
  3,929
  4,191
  4,464
  4,748
  5,043
  5,351
  5,671
  6,005
  6,353
  6,717
  7,096
  7,493
  7,906
  8,339
  8,792
  9,265
  9,760
  10,278
  10,821
  11,389
  11,984
  12,608
  13,262
  13,946
Total equity, $m
  443
  479
  517
  556
  597
  639
  683
  728
  775
  825
  876
  929
  985
  1,043
  1,104
  1,167
  1,233
  1,302
  1,373
  1,449
  1,527
  1,609
  1,695
  1,785
  1,880
  1,978
  2,082
  2,190
  2,304
  2,423
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,995
  3,239
  3,493
  3,757
  4,031
  4,316
  4,612
  4,919
  5,239
  5,573
  5,919
  6,280
  6,656
  7,048
  7,457
  7,884
  8,329
  8,795
  9,279
  9,788
  10,319
  10,874
  11,455
  12,063
  12,701
  13,367
  14,066
  14,798
  15,566
  16,369
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.410
  2.670
  2.890
  3.090
  3.270
  3.440
  3.590
  3.720
  3.850
  3.960
  4.070
  4.160
  4.250
  4.340
  4.410
  4.490
  4.550
  4.620
  4.680
  4.730
  4.790
  4.840
  4.880
  4.930
  4.970
  5.010
  5.040
  5.080
  5.110
  5.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  180
  220
  261
  303
  348
  395
  444
  495
  548
  604
  662
  723
  787
  853
  923
  997
  1,074
  1,155
  1,240
  1,329
  1,423
  1,521
  1,625
  1,734
  1,848
  1,968
  2,095
  2,228
  2,369
  2,516
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  218
  236
  255
  274
  294
  315
  336
  359
  382
  406
  432
  458
  486
  514
  544
  575
  608
  641
  677
  714
  753
  793
  836
  880
  926
  975
  1,026
  1,079
  1,135
  1,194
Funds from operations, $m
  399
  456
  515
  577
  642
  710
  780
  853
  930
  1,010
  1,094
  1,181
  1,272
  1,368
  1,467
  1,572
  1,682
  1,796
  1,917
  2,043
  2,175
  2,314
  2,460
  2,614
  2,774
  2,944
  3,121
  3,308
  3,504
  3,710
Change in working capital, $m
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
Cash from operations, $m
  409
  466
  526
  589
  654
  722
  793
  867
  944
  1,024
  1,109
  1,196
  1,288
  1,384
  1,485
  1,590
  1,701
  1,817
  1,938
  2,065
  2,198
  2,338
  2,486
  2,640
  2,802
  2,972
  3,151
  3,339
  3,537
  3,745
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -201
  -218
  -236
  -255
  -274
  -294
  -315
  -336
  -359
  -382
  -406
  -432
  -458
  -486
  -514
  -544
  -575
  -608
  -641
  -677
  -714
  -753
  -793
  -836
  -880
  -926
  -975
  -1,026
  -1,079
  -1,135
New CAPEX, $m
  -179
  -187
  -194
  -202
  -210
  -218
  -227
  -236
  -245
  -255
  -265
  -276
  -288
  -300
  -313
  -327
  -341
  -356
  -372
  -389
  -407
  -425
  -445
  -466
  -488
  -511
  -535
  -561
  -587
  -616
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -380
  -405
  -430
  -457
  -484
  -512
  -542
  -572
  -604
  -637
  -671
  -708
  -746
  -786
  -827
  -871
  -916
  -964
  -1,013
  -1,066
  -1,121
  -1,178
  -1,238
  -1,302
  -1,368
  -1,437
  -1,510
  -1,587
  -1,666
  -1,751
Free cash flow, $m
  28
  61
  96
  132
  170
  210
  251
  295
  340
  387
  437
  488
  542
  599
  658
  720
  785
  853
  924
  999
  1,078
  1,160
  1,247
  1,338
  1,434
  1,535
  1,641
  1,753
  1,870
  1,994
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  201
  208
  216
  225
  234
  243
  252
  262
  273
  284
  295
  308
  320
  334
  348
  363
  379
  396
  414
  433
  452
  473
  495
  518
  543
  568
  595
  624
  653
  685
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  201
  208
  216
  225
  234
  243
  252
  262
  273
  284
  295
  308
  320
  334
  348
  363
  379
  396
  414
  433
  452
  473
  495
  518
  543
  568
  595
  624
  653
  685
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  229
  269
  312
  357
  404
  453
  504
  557
  613
  671
  732
  796
  863
  933
  1,006
  1,083
  1,164
  1,249
  1,338
  1,432
  1,530
  1,634
  1,742
  1,857
  1,977
  2,103
  2,236
  2,376
  2,524
  2,679
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  196
  233
  274
  318
  363
  410
  460
  511
  565
  622
  681
  742
  807
  875
  946
  1,020
  1,098
  1,180
  1,266
  1,357
  1,452
  1,551
  1,656
  1,767
  1,883
  2,005
  2,133
  2,268
  2,410
  2,560
Discount rate, %
  4.80
  5.04
  5.29
  5.56
  5.83
  6.13
  6.43
  6.75
  7.09
  7.45
  7.82
  8.21
  8.62
  9.05
  9.50
  9.98
  10.48
  11.00
  11.55
  12.13
  12.74
  13.37
  14.04
  14.74
  15.48
  16.25
  17.07
  17.92
  18.82
  19.76
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  187
  211
  235
  256
  273
  287
  297
  303
  305
  303
  297
  288
  275
  260
  242
  223
  202
  180
  159
  137
  117
  98
  81
  65
  52
  40
  30
  22
  16
  11
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

CONSOL Energy Inc., formerly CONSOL Mining Corporation, is engaged in the natural gas exploration and production business. The Company is a producer and exporter of high-Btu bituminous thermal and crossover metallurgical coal. It holds interest in the Pennsylvania Mining Complex (PMC) and related coal assets, terminal operations at the Port of Baltimore. The Company also holds interest in the undeveloped coal reserves located in the Northern Appalachian, Central Appalachian and Illinois basins. The Pennsylvania Mining complex, located in Greene and Washington counties. PMC includes Bailey Mine, Enlow Fork Mine, Harvey Mine, Centralized Coal Processing facility and Train Loadout facility.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CNX Resources Corporation (CEIX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

CEIX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CEIX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1532 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CNX Resources Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of CNX Resources Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CEIX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.8%, whose default value for CEIX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CNX Resources Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CNX Resources Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CEIX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 33.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $754 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CEIX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.5% for CNX Resources Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CNX Resources Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CEIX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CEIX are equal to 138%.

Life of production assets of 10.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CNX Resources Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CEIX is equal to -7.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $409.935 million for CNX Resources Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.555 million for CNX Resources Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CNX Resources Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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