Intrinsic value of Cellcom Israel - CEL

Previous Close

$6.45

  Intrinsic Value

$9.14

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+42%

Previous close

$6.45

 
Intrinsic value

$9.14

 
Up/down potential

+42%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CEL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  1,190
  1,267
  1,348
  1,432
  1,520
  1,611
  1,706
  1,805
  1,909
  2,017
  2,130
  2,247
  2,371
  2,499
  2,634
  2,775
  2,923
  3,077
  3,239
  3,408
  3,585
  3,771
  3,966
  4,171
  4,385
  4,609
  4,845
  5,092
  5,351
  5,623
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,088
  1,157
  1,229
  1,303
  1,380
  1,461
  1,545
  1,633
  1,725
  1,820
  1,884
  1,988
  2,097
  2,211
  2,330
  2,454
  2,585
  2,721
  2,864
  3,014
  3,171
  3,336
  3,508
  3,689
  3,878
  4,077
  4,285
  4,504
  4,733
  4,973
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,088
  1,157
  1,229
  1,303
  1,380
  1,461
  1,545
  1,633
  1,725
  1,820
  1,884
  1,988
  2,097
  2,211
  2,330
  2,454
  2,585
  2,721
  2,864
  3,014
  3,171
  3,336
  3,508
  3,689
  3,878
  4,077
  4,285
  4,504
  4,733
  4,973
Operating income, $m
  101
  110
  119
  129
  139
  150
  161
  172
  184
  197
  246
  260
  274
  289
  304
  321
  338
  356
  374
  394
  414
  436
  458
  482
  507
  533
  560
  588
  618
  650
EBITDA, $m
  269
  286
  304
  323
  343
  364
  385
  408
  431
  455
  481
  507
  535
  564
  595
  626
  660
  695
  731
  769
  809
  851
  895
  942
  990
  1,041
  1,094
  1,150
  1,208
  1,269
Interest expense (income), $m
  50
  54
  58
  63
  69
  74
  80
  86
  92
  98
  105
  112
  119
  127
  135
  143
  152
  161
  171
  181
  191
  202
  214
  226
  238
  252
  266
  280
  295
  311
  328
Earnings before tax, $m
  48
  52
  56
  61
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  193
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
  321
Tax expense, $m
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  36
  38
  40
  42
  43
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
Net income, $m
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  98
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  214
  224
  235

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,870
  1,993
  2,120
  2,252
  2,390
  2,533
  2,683
  2,839
  3,001
  3,171
  3,348
  3,534
  3,727
  3,930
  4,142
  4,363
  4,595
  4,838
  5,092
  5,359
  5,638
  5,930
  6,236
  6,558
  6,894
  7,247
  7,618
  8,006
  8,414
  8,841
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,870
  1,993
  2,120
  2,252
  2,390
  2,533
  2,683
  2,839
  3,001
  3,171
  3,348
  3,534
  3,727
  3,930
  4,142
  4,363
  4,595
  4,838
  5,092
  5,359
  5,638
  5,930
  6,236
  6,558
  6,894
  7,247
  7,618
  8,006
  8,414
  8,841
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
Average production assets, $m
  655
  698
  743
  789
  837
  888
  940
  995
  1,052
  1,111
  1,173
  1,238
  1,306
  1,377
  1,451
  1,529
  1,610
  1,695
  1,784
  1,878
  1,976
  2,078
  2,185
  2,298
  2,416
  2,540
  2,670
  2,806
  2,948
  3,098
Working capital, $m
  128
  137
  146
  155
  164
  174
  184
  195
  206
  218
  230
  243
  256
  270
  284
  300
  316
  332
  350
  368
  387
  407
  428
  450
  474
  498
  523
  550
  578
  607
Total debt, $m
  1,081
  1,174
  1,271
  1,372
  1,477
  1,587
  1,701
  1,820
  1,944
  2,074
  2,210
  2,351
  2,499
  2,654
  2,816
  2,985
  3,162
  3,348
  3,542
  3,745
  3,959
  4,182
  4,416
  4,661
  4,919
  5,189
  5,471
  5,768
  6,079
  6,406
Total liabilities, $m
  1,429
  1,522
  1,619
  1,720
  1,826
  1,935
  2,050
  2,169
  2,293
  2,423
  2,558
  2,700
  2,848
  3,002
  3,164
  3,334
  3,511
  3,696
  3,890
  4,094
  4,307
  4,530
  4,765
  5,010
  5,267
  5,537
  5,820
  6,117
  6,428
  6,755
Total equity, $m
  441
  470
  500
  531
  564
  598
  633
  670
  708
  748
  790
  834
  880
  927
  977
  1,030
  1,084
  1,142
  1,202
  1,265
  1,330
  1,399
  1,472
  1,548
  1,627
  1,710
  1,798
  1,889
  1,986
  2,086
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,870
  1,992
  2,119
  2,251
  2,390
  2,533
  2,683
  2,839
  3,001
  3,171
  3,348
  3,534
  3,728
  3,929
  4,141
  4,364
  4,595
  4,838
  5,092
  5,359
  5,637
  5,929
  6,237
  6,558
  6,894
  7,247
  7,618
  8,006
  8,414
  8,841
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.450
  2.500
  2.540
  2.580
  2.620
  2.650
  2.690
  2.720
  2.750
  2.770
  2.800
  2.820
  2.840
  2.860
  2.880
  2.900
  2.920
  2.930
  2.950
  2.960
  2.980
  2.990
  3.000
  3.010
  3.020
  3.030
  3.040
  3.050
  3.060
  3.070
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  98
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  214
  224
  235
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  167
  176
  185
  194
  204
  214
  224
  235
  247
  259
  235
  248
  261
  275
  290
  306
  322
  339
  357
  376
  395
  416
  437
  460
  483
  508
  534
  561
  590
  620
Funds from operations, $m
  202
  214
  226
  238
  251
  265
  279
  294
  309
  326
  333
  350
  369
  388
  408
  429
  451
  474
  498
  523
  550
  578
  607
  637
  669
  703
  738
  775
  814
  854
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
Cash from operations, $m
  194
  205
  217
  229
  242
  255
  269
  283
  298
  314
  320
  337
  355
  374
  393
  414
  435
  457
  481
  505
  531
  558
  586
  615
  646
  679
  713
  748
  786
  825
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -123
  -131
  -140
  -149
  -158
  -167
  -178
  -188
  -199
  -210
  -222
  -235
  -248
  -261
  -275
  -290
  -306
  -322
  -339
  -357
  -376
  -395
  -416
  -437
  -460
  -483
  -508
  -534
  -561
  -590
New CAPEX, $m
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -164
  -174
  -185
  -195
  -206
  -217
  -230
  -243
  -256
  -270
  -284
  -300
  -316
  -332
  -349
  -368
  -387
  -407
  -428
  -450
  -474
  -497
  -523
  -550
  -578
  -607
  -638
  -670
  -704
  -740
Free cash flow, $m
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  124
  130
  135
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
  270
  283
  297
  311
  327
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  124
  130
  135
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
  270
  283
  297
  311
  327
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  171
  179
  188
  196
  205
  215
  225
  236
  247
  258
  271
  283
  297
  311
  326
  341
  358
  375
  393
  412
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  130
  136
  142
  149
  155
  163
  170
  178
  187
  196
  205
  214
  225
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  297
  311
Discount rate, %
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.86
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.20
  13.86
  14.55
  15.28
  16.04
  16.85
  17.69
  18.57
  19.50
  20.48
  21.50
  22.58
  23.70
  24.89
  26.13
  27.44
  28.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  86
  83
  80
  76
  72
  68
  63
  58
  53
  48
  40
  35
  30
  26
  22
  19
  15
  12
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Cellcom Israel Ltd. is engaged in the provision of cellular telephone services. The Company offers fixed-line services. The Company operates in two segments: Cellular and Fixed-line. The cellular segment includes the cellular communications services, end user cellular equipment and supplemental services. The fixed-line segment includes landline and long distance telephony services, Internet infrastructure and connectivity services, television services, end user fixed-line equipment and supplemental services. The Company provides a range of cellular services through its second generation (2G), third generation (3G) and fourth generation (4G) network. The Company's services include basic cellular telephony services, text and multimedia messaging, advanced cellular content and data services, and other value-added services. It also offers international roaming services, a range of handsets from various manufacturers, and repair services on most handsets it offers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cellcom Israel (CEL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.2
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -6.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 216.8%
Total Debt to Equity 281.8%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Equity 11.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 20%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.7%
EBITDA Margin 21.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.6%
Operating Margin 7.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Net Profit Margin 3.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Effective Tax Rate 4.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

CEL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CEL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1114.91935484 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cellcom Israel. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Cellcom Israel. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CEL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7%, whose default value for CEL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cellcom Israel, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cellcom Israel.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CEL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CEL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Cellcom Israel.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cellcom Israel. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CEL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CEL are equal to 55.1%.

Life of production assets of 4.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cellcom Israel operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CEL is equal to 10.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $413.882488479 million for Cellcom Israel - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 101.045 million for Cellcom Israel is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cellcom Israel at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Cellcom Israel Ltd. to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-16-18 07:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Cellcom: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:05AM  Associated Press]
▶ Cellcom Israel Announces 200,000 Cellcom TV Households   [Jul-18-18 07:08AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Cellcom Israel Ltd. to Host Earnings Call   [May-30-18 07:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Cellcom: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:05AM  Associated Press]
▶ Cellcom Israel Ltd. to Host Earnings Call   [Mar-26-18 07:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Cellcom posts 4Q profit   [05:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ Cellcom Israel Announces Appointment of Director   [Mar-25-18 02:10AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Cellcom Israel Announces a Labor Dispute   [Mar-12-18 03:55AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Cellcom posts 3Q profit   [Nov-22-17 05:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Cellcom Israel Announces 150,000 Cellcom tv Households   [Sep-04-17 05:26AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Cellcom posts 2Q profit   [Aug-04-17 11:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cellcom Israel Ltd. : May 31, 2017   [May-31-17 12:24PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cellcom posts 1Q profit   [May-24-17 05:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Biotechnology Gets A Shot In the Arm   [Mar-21-17 12:08PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Biotechnology Gets A Shot In the Arm   [12:08PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Cellcom posts 4Q profit   [Mar-15-17 05:00AM  Associated Press]

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