Intrinsic value of Celsius Holdings, Inc. - CELH

Previous Close

$4.99

  Intrinsic Value

$0.06

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-99%

Previous close

$4.99

 
Intrinsic value

$0.06

 
Up/down potential

-99%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CELH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  85
  131
  196
  284
  401
  551
  740
  972
  1,251
  1,580
  1,961
  2,398
  2,890
  3,439
  4,044
  4,704
  5,418
  6,186
  7,006
  7,877
  8,798
  9,767
  10,785
  11,850
  12,962
  14,122
  15,330
  16,586
  17,893
  19,251
Variable operating expenses, $m
  96
  148
  222
  322
  454
  624
  838
  1,100
  1,416
  1,788
  2,220
  2,715
  3,272
  3,893
  4,578
  5,325
  6,134
  7,003
  7,931
  8,917
  9,959
  11,057
  12,208
  13,414
  14,673
  15,986
  17,353
  18,776
  20,255
  21,793
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Total operating expenses, $m
  99
  151
  225
  325
  457
  627
  841
  1,104
  1,420
  1,792
  2,224
  2,719
  3,276
  3,897
  4,582
  5,329
  6,138
  7,007
  7,936
  8,922
  9,964
  11,062
  12,213
  13,419
  14,678
  15,991
  17,358
  18,782
  20,261
  21,799
Operating income, $m
  -14
  -20
  -29
  -41
  -56
  -76
  -101
  -132
  -169
  -212
  -263
  -320
  -386
  -458
  -538
  -625
  -720
  -821
  -929
  -1,044
  -1,166
  -1,294
  -1,429
  -1,569
  -1,716
  -1,869
  -2,029
  -2,195
  -2,368
  -2,547
EBITDA, $m
  -14
  -20
  -29
  -41
  -56
  -76
  -101
  -131
  -168
  -212
  -262
  -319
  -384
  -457
  -536
  -623
  -717
  -819
  -927
  -1,041
  -1,163
  -1,290
  -1,424
  -1,564
  -1,711
  -1,864
  -2,023
  -2,188
  -2,360
  -2,539
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  4
  6
  9
  12
  16
  22
  28
  36
  45
  55
  66
  79
  93
  109
  125
  143
  162
  182
  204
  226
  250
  275
  300
  327
  356
  385
  415
Earnings before tax, $m
  -15
  -22
  -31
  -45
  -62
  -85
  -113
  -148
  -191
  -240
  -299
  -365
  -440
  -524
  -617
  -718
  -828
  -946
  -1,072
  -1,206
  -1,348
  -1,498
  -1,655
  -1,819
  -1,991
  -2,170
  -2,356
  -2,550
  -2,752
  -2,962
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -15
  -22
  -31
  -45
  -62
  -85
  -113
  -148
  -191
  -240
  -299
  -365
  -440
  -524
  -617
  -718
  -828
  -946
  -1,072
  -1,206
  -1,348
  -1,498
  -1,655
  -1,819
  -1,991
  -2,170
  -2,356
  -2,550
  -2,752
  -2,962

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  55
  86
  128
  186
  262
  360
  483
  635
  817
  1,032
  1,281
  1,566
  1,888
  2,246
  2,641
  3,072
  3,539
  4,041
  4,576
  5,145
  5,746
  6,380
  7,044
  7,740
  8,466
  9,224
  10,013
  10,834
  11,687
  12,574
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  55
  86
  128
  186
  262
  360
  483
  635
  817
  1,032
  1,281
  1,566
  1,888
  2,246
  2,641
  3,072
  3,539
  4,041
  4,576
  5,145
  5,746
  6,380
  7,044
  7,740
  8,466
  9,224
  10,013
  10,834
  11,687
  12,574
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.545
  1.523
  1.531
  1.527
  1.531
  1.531
  1.532
  1.531
  1.531
  1.531
  1.531
  1.531
  1.531
  1.531
  1.531
  1.531
  1.531
  1.531
  1.531
  1.531
  1.531
  1.531
  1.531
  1.531
  1.531
  1.531
  1.531
  1.531
  1.531
  1.531
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
Working capital, $m
  19
  29
  44
  64
  90
  124
  166
  218
  280
  354
  439
  537
  647
  770
  906
  1,054
  1,214
  1,386
  1,569
  1,765
  1,971
  2,188
  2,416
  2,654
  2,903
  3,163
  3,434
  3,715
  4,008
  4,312
Total debt, $m
  22
  42
  69
  108
  158
  222
  304
  403
  523
  665
  829
  1,017
  1,229
  1,465
  1,726
  2,010
  2,317
  2,648
  3,001
  3,376
  3,772
  4,189
  4,627
  5,086
  5,564
  6,064
  6,584
  7,125
  7,687
  8,272
Total liabilities, $m
  37
  56
  84
  122
  173
  237
  319
  418
  538
  680
  844
  1,032
  1,244
  1,480
  1,741
  2,025
  2,332
  2,663
  3,016
  3,391
  3,787
  4,204
  4,642
  5,100
  5,579
  6,079
  6,598
  7,139
  7,702
  8,287
Total equity, $m
  19
  29
  44
  63
  89
  123
  165
  216
  279
  352
  437
  534
  644
  766
  901
  1,048
  1,207
  1,378
  1,561
  1,755
  1,960
  2,175
  2,402
  2,639
  2,887
  3,145
  3,414
  3,694
  3,985
  4,288
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  56
  85
  128
  185
  262
  360
  484
  634
  817
  1,032
  1,281
  1,566
  1,888
  2,246
  2,642
  3,073
  3,539
  4,041
  4,577
  5,146
  5,747
  6,379
  7,044
  7,739
  8,466
  9,224
  10,012
  10,833
  11,687
  12,575
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.150
  1.420
  1.590
  1.700
  1.770
  1.810
  1.840
  1.860
  1.880
  1.890
  1.900
  1.900
  1.910
  1.910
  1.920
  1.920
  1.920
  1.920
  1.920
  1.920
  1.920
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341
  0.341

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -15
  -22
  -31
  -45
  -62
  -85
  -113
  -148
  -191
  -240
  -299
  -365
  -440
  -524
  -617
  -718
  -828
  -946
  -1,072
  -1,206
  -1,348
  -1,498
  -1,655
  -1,819
  -1,991
  -2,170
  -2,356
  -2,550
  -2,752
  -2,962
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
Funds from operations, $m
  -15
  -22
  -31
  -44
  -62
  -85
  -113
  -148
  -190
  -240
  -298
  -364
  -439
  -523
  -615
  -716
  -826
  -944
  -1,070
  -1,203
  -1,345
  -1,494
  -1,650
  -1,814
  -1,986
  -2,164
  -2,350
  -2,544
  -2,745
  -2,954
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  10
  15
  20
  26
  34
  42
  52
  62
  74
  86
  98
  110
  123
  135
  148
  160
  172
  184
  195
  206
  217
  228
  239
  249
  260
  271
  282
  293
  304
Cash from operations, $m
  -22
  -32
  -46
  -64
  -88
  -118
  -155
  -200
  -252
  -314
  -383
  -462
  -550
  -646
  -751
  -864
  -986
  -1,116
  -1,253
  -1,398
  -1,551
  -1,711
  -1,878
  -2,053
  -2,235
  -2,424
  -2,621
  -2,825
  -3,038
  -3,259
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
Free cash flow, $m
  -22
  -32
  -46
  -64
  -88
  -119
  -156
  -201
  -253
  -315
  -385
  -464
  -552
  -648
  -753
  -867
  -989
  -1,119
  -1,257
  -1,403
  -1,556
  -1,716
  -1,884
  -2,059
  -2,242
  -2,432
  -2,629
  -2,834
  -3,047
  -3,268
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  14
  20
  28
  38
  50
  65
  81
  100
  120
  142
  164
  188
  212
  236
  260
  284
  308
  331
  353
  375
  396
  417
  438
  458
  479
  499
  520
  541
  562
  585
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  22
  32
  46
  64
  88
  118
  155
  200
  253
  314
  384
  462
  550
  647
  752
  865
  987
  1,117
  1,255
  1,400
  1,553
  1,714
  1,881
  2,056
  2,239
  2,428
  2,625
  2,830
  3,043
  3,265
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  36
  52
  74
  102
  138
  183
  236
  300
  373
  456
  548
  650
  762
  883
  1,012
  1,149
  1,295
  1,448
  1,608
  1,775
  1,949
  2,131
  2,319
  2,514
  2,718
  2,927
  3,145
  3,371
  3,605
  3,850
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  14
  20
  28
  38
  50
  64
  81
  99
  119
  141
  163
  187
  211
  235
  259
  282
  306
  328
  351
  372
  394
  414
  435
  455
  476
  496
  516
  537
  559
  581
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -22
  -32
  -46
  -64
  -88
  -118
  -155
  -200
  -253
  -314
  -384
  -462
  -550
  -647
  -752
  -865
  -987
  -1,117
  -1,255
  -1,400
  -1,553
  -1,714
  -1,881
  -2,056
  -2,239
  -2,428
  -2,625
  -2,830
  -3,043
  -3,265
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -8
  -12
  -18
  -26
  -38
  -54
  -75
  -101
  -133
  -173
  -220
  -276
  -340
  -412
  -493
  -583
  -682
  -789
  -904
  -1,028
  -1,160
  -1,299
  -1,446
  -1,601
  -1,763
  -1,932
  -2,109
  -2,293
  -2,485
  -2,684
Discount rate, %
  5.70
  5.99
  6.28
  6.60
  6.93
  7.27
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.28
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.44
  13.06
  13.72
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.51
  18.38
  19.30
  20.27
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -8
  -11
  -15
  -20
  -27
  -35
  -45
  -54
  -64
  -74
  -83
  -90
  -96
  -99
  -99
  -97
  -93
  -87
  -79
  -70
  -60
  -51
  -42
  -33
  -26
  -20
  -14
  -10
  -7
  -5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  84.4
  72.2
  62.4
  54.4
  47.8
  42.2
  37.5
  33.4
  29.9
  26.9
  24.2
  21.9
  19.9
  18.1
  16.4
  15.0
  13.7
  12.6
  11.5
  10.6
  9.7
  8.9
  8.2
  7.6
  7.0
  6.4
  5.9
  5.5
  5.1
  4.7

Celsius Holdings, Inc. is engaged in the development, marketing, sale and distribution of functional calorie-burning fitness beverages under the Celsius brand name. The Company's product range includes Sparkling Grape Rush, Sparkling Watermelon, Sparkling Orange, Sparkling Wild Berry, Sparkling Cola, Raspberry Acai Green Tea, Peach Mango Green Tea, Flo Fusion Orange and Flo Fusion Berry. The Company's products are sweetened with sucralose, which is suitable for consumers whose sugar intake is restricted. The Company's Celsius brand uses ingredients and supplements, such as green tea (EGCG), ginger, calcium, chromium, B vitamins and vitamin C. The Company outsources the manufacturing process to third-party co-packers. It provides co-packers with flavors, ingredient blends, cans and other raw materials for its beverages purchased by it from various suppliers. It sells Celsius brand across retail segments, which include supermarkets and convenience stores.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -66.5
Price to Sales 8.7
Price to Book 18.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -99.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -99.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 35.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 45.5%
Total Debt to Equity 45.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -18.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.4%
Return On Total Capital -20%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -36.3%
Return On Equity -30%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -66.4%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 43.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.6%
EBITDA Margin -13%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.7%
Operating Margin -13%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -13%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.7%
Net Profit Margin -13%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

CELH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CELH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $53 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Celsius Holdings, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Celsius Holdings, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CELH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.7%, whose default value for CELH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Celsius Holdings, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Celsius Holdings, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CELH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 113.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $3 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CELH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Celsius Holdings, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Celsius Holdings, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CELH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CELH are equal to 0.2%.

Life of production assets of 1.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Celsius Holdings, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CELH is equal to 22.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $11.802982 million for Celsius Holdings, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 51.130 million for Celsius Holdings, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Celsius Holdings, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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