Intrinsic value of Central Garden&Pet - CENT

Previous Close

$33.87

  Intrinsic Value

$158.67

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+368%

Previous close

$33.87

 
Intrinsic value

$158.67

 
Up/down potential

+368%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CENT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.50
  13.55
  12.70
  11.93
  11.23
  10.61
  10.05
  9.54
  9.09
  8.68
  8.31
  7.98
  7.68
  7.41
  7.17
  6.96
  6.76
  6.58
  6.43
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.94
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
Revenue, $m
  2,352
  2,671
  3,010
  3,369
  3,748
  4,145
  4,562
  4,997
  5,451
  5,925
  6,417
  6,929
  7,462
  8,015
  8,590
  9,187
  9,808
  10,454
  11,126
  11,825
  12,553
  13,311
  14,101
  14,925
  15,784
  16,681
  17,618
  18,596
  19,618
  20,687
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,072
  2,347
  2,641
  2,951
  3,279
  3,622
  3,983
  4,359
  4,752
  5,161
  5,550
  5,993
  6,453
  6,932
  7,429
  7,946
  8,483
  9,042
  9,623
  10,227
  10,857
  11,512
  12,196
  12,908
  13,652
  14,427
  15,237
  16,083
  16,967
  17,892
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
  99
  101
  104
  106
  108
  111
  113
  115
  118
  121
  123
  126
  129
  132
  134
  137
  140
  144
  147
  150
  153
  157
  160
  164
  167
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,161
  2,438
  2,734
  3,046
  3,376
  3,721
  4,084
  4,463
  4,858
  5,269
  5,661
  6,106
  6,568
  7,050
  7,550
  8,069
  8,609
  9,171
  9,755
  10,361
  10,994
  11,652
  12,340
  13,055
  13,802
  14,580
  15,394
  16,243
  17,131
  18,059
Operating income, $m
  192
  233
  277
  323
  372
  424
  478
  534
  594
  655
  757
  823
  893
  965
  1,040
  1,118
  1,199
  1,284
  1,372
  1,463
  1,559
  1,658
  1,762
  1,870
  1,983
  2,101
  2,224
  2,353
  2,487
  2,628
EBITDA, $m
  261
  307
  355
  407
  461
  518
  578
  641
  706
  774
  845
  919
  996
  1,075
  1,158
  1,245
  1,334
  1,428
  1,525
  1,626
  1,732
  1,842
  1,956
  2,076
  2,200
  2,331
  2,467
  2,609
  2,757
  2,913
Interest expense (income), $m
  28
  28
  35
  42
  50
  59
  67
  77
  86
  96
  107
  118
  129
  141
  154
  167
  180
  194
  208
  223
  239
  255
  272
  289
  308
  327
  347
  368
  389
  412
  436
Earnings before tax, $m
  164
  198
  234
  273
  314
  356
  401
  448
  497
  548
  639
  694
  752
  811
  874
  938
  1,006
  1,076
  1,149
  1,225
  1,304
  1,386
  1,472
  1,562
  1,656
  1,754
  1,856
  1,963
  2,075
  2,192
Tax expense, $m
  44
  53
  63
  74
  85
  96
  108
  121
  134
  148
  172
  187
  203
  219
  236
  253
  272
  290
  310
  331
  352
  374
  398
  422
  447
  474
  501
  530
  560
  592
Net income, $m
  119
  144
  171
  199
  229
  260
  293
  327
  363
  400
  466
  507
  549
  592
  638
  685
  734
  785
  839
  894
  952
  1,012
  1,075
  1,140
  1,209
  1,280
  1,355
  1,433
  1,515
  1,600

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,496
  1,699
  1,915
  2,143
  2,384
  2,637
  2,902
  3,179
  3,468
  3,769
  4,082
  4,408
  4,747
  5,099
  5,464
  5,844
  6,239
  6,650
  7,078
  7,522
  7,985
  8,468
  8,970
  9,494
  10,041
  10,611
  11,207
  11,829
  12,480
  13,160
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,496
  1,699
  1,915
  2,143
  2,384
  2,637
  2,902
  3,179
  3,468
  3,769
  4,082
  4,408
  4,747
  5,099
  5,464
  5,844
  6,239
  6,650
  7,078
  7,522
  7,985
  8,468
  8,970
  9,494
  10,041
  10,611
  11,207
  11,829
  12,480
  13,160
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
  1.572
Average production assets, $m
  395
  449
  506
  566
  630
  696
  766
  840
  916
  995
  1,078
  1,164
  1,254
  1,347
  1,443
  1,543
  1,648
  1,756
  1,869
  1,987
  2,109
  2,236
  2,369
  2,507
  2,652
  2,802
  2,960
  3,124
  3,296
  3,475
Working capital, $m
  480
  545
  614
  687
  765
  846
  931
  1,019
  1,112
  1,209
  1,309
  1,414
  1,522
  1,635
  1,752
  1,874
  2,001
  2,133
  2,270
  2,412
  2,561
  2,715
  2,877
  3,045
  3,220
  3,403
  3,594
  3,794
  4,002
  4,220
Total debt, $m
  494
  598
  709
  826
  950
  1,080
  1,216
  1,358
  1,507
  1,662
  1,823
  1,990
  2,164
  2,345
  2,533
  2,728
  2,932
  3,143
  3,362
  3,591
  3,829
  4,077
  4,335
  4,604
  4,885
  5,179
  5,485
  5,805
  6,139
  6,488
Total liabilities, $m
  769
  873
  984
  1,102
  1,225
  1,355
  1,492
  1,634
  1,782
  1,937
  2,098
  2,266
  2,440
  2,621
  2,809
  3,004
  3,207
  3,418
  3,638
  3,866
  4,104
  4,352
  4,611
  4,880
  5,161
  5,454
  5,760
  6,080
  6,415
  6,764
Total equity, $m
  727
  826
  931
  1,042
  1,159
  1,282
  1,410
  1,545
  1,685
  1,832
  1,984
  2,142
  2,307
  2,478
  2,656
  2,840
  3,032
  3,232
  3,440
  3,656
  3,881
  4,115
  4,360
  4,614
  4,880
  5,157
  5,447
  5,749
  6,065
  6,396
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,496
  1,699
  1,915
  2,144
  2,384
  2,637
  2,902
  3,179
  3,467
  3,769
  4,082
  4,408
  4,747
  5,099
  5,465
  5,844
  6,239
  6,650
  7,078
  7,522
  7,985
  8,467
  8,971
  9,494
  10,041
  10,611
  11,207
  11,829
  12,480
  13,160
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.680
  0.720
  0.760
  0.790
  0.820
  0.840
  0.860
  0.880
  0.890
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486
  0.486

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  119
  144
  171
  199
  229
  260
  293
  327
  363
  400
  466
  507
  549
  592
  638
  685
  734
  785
  839
  894
  952
  1,012
  1,075
  1,140
  1,209
  1,280
  1,355
  1,433
  1,515
  1,600
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  70
  74
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  106
  112
  119
  88
  95
  103
  110
  118
  127
  135
  144
  153
  163
  173
  183
  194
  206
  217
  230
  243
  256
  270
  285
Funds from operations, $m
  189
  218
  250
  283
  318
  354
  393
  433
  475
  519
  555
  602
  651
  703
  756
  812
  869
  929
  992
  1,057
  1,125
  1,195
  1,269
  1,346
  1,426
  1,510
  1,598
  1,689
  1,785
  1,885
Change in working capital, $m
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  100
  104
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  148
  155
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  218
Cash from operations, $m
  128
  153
  180
  210
  240
  273
  308
  344
  383
  422
  454
  498
  543
  590
  639
  690
  743
  798
  855
  914
  976
  1,041
  1,108
  1,178
  1,251
  1,327
  1,407
  1,490
  1,577
  1,667
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -28
  -32
  -37
  -41
  -46
  -52
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -82
  -88
  -95
  -103
  -110
  -118
  -127
  -135
  -144
  -153
  -163
  -173
  -183
  -194
  -206
  -217
  -230
  -243
  -256
  -270
New CAPEX, $m
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -180
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -79
  -86
  -94
  -101
  -110
  -119
  -127
  -136
  -145
  -154
  -165
  -174
  -184
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -231
  -243
  -257
  -270
  -285
  -300
  -316
  -332
  -350
  -368
  -387
  -407
  -428
  -450
Free cash flow, $m
  49
  67
  87
  108
  131
  155
  181
  208
  237
  268
  290
  323
  358
  394
  432
  471
  512
  554
  598
  644
  691
  740
  792
  845
  901
  959
  1,020
  1,083
  1,149
  1,218
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  98
  104
  111
  117
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  188
  195
  203
  211
  220
  229
  238
  248
  258
  269
  281
  293
  306
  320
  334
  349
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  98
  104
  111
  117
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  188
  195
  203
  211
  220
  229
  238
  248
  258
  269
  281
  293
  306
  320
  334
  349
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  147
  172
  198
  225
  254
  285
  317
  351
  386
  423
  451
  491
  532
  575
  620
  666
  715
  765
  818
  872
  929
  988
  1,050
  1,115
  1,182
  1,252
  1,326
  1,403
  1,483
  1,567
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -92
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -192
  -200
  -208
  -216
  -225
  -234
  -244
  -255
  -266
  -277
  -290
  -302
  -316
  -330
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  56
  73
  93
  114
  137
  162
  188
  216
  246
  276
  299
  332
  367
  404
  442
  482
  523
  565
  610
  656
  704
  754
  806
  860
  916
  975
  1,036
  1,100
  1,167
  1,237
Discount rate, %
  5.70
  5.99
  6.28
  6.60
  6.93
  7.27
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.28
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.44
  13.06
  13.72
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.51
  18.38
  19.30
  20.27
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  53
  65
  77
  88
  98
  106
  112
  117
  119
  118
  112
  109
  103
  97
  89
  80
  71
  62
  53
  44
  37
  29
  23
  18
  13
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Central Garden & Pet Company is a marketer and producer of branded products and distributor of third party products in the pet and lawn and garden supplies industries in the United States. The Company operates in two segments: Pet segment and the Garden segment. It is a marketer and producer of pet supplies in the United States. In addition, its Pet segment operates sales and logistics networks in the industry strategically supporting its brands. Its principal pet supplies categories are dog and cat, aquatics, bird and small animal, wild bird feed and animal health products. The Company markets and produces various brands, including Pennington, The Rebels, AMDRO, Lilly Miller, Ironite, Sevin, and Over-N-Out. Its Garden segment operates a sales and logistics network that strategically supports its brands. The Company's principal lawn and garden product lines include grass seed, wild bird feed and insect control products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Central Garden&Pet (CENT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.2
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 25.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 60.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 21.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 62.3%
Total Debt to Equity 62.3%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Return On Total Capital 8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Return On Equity 13.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Asset Turnover 1.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.2%
EBITDA Margin 9.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Operating Margin 7.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Net Profit Margin 3.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Effective Tax Rate 36.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

CENT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CENT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2054.478 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Central Garden&Pet. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Central Garden&Pet. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CENT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.7%, whose default value for CENT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Central Garden&Pet, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Central Garden&Pet.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CENT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $87 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CENT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.1% for Central Garden&Pet.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Central Garden&Pet. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CENT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CENT are equal to 16.8%.

Life of production assets of 12.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Central Garden&Pet operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CENT is equal to 20.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $635.686 million for Central Garden&Pet - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 12.145 million for Central Garden&Pet is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Central Garden&Pet at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Central Garden: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Central Garden & Pet Company Names New Independent Director   [Nov-02-18 12:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for September 11th   [Sep-11-18 07:28AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for August 30th   [Aug-30-18 07:36AM  Zacks]
▶ Central Garden & Pet Announces Vendor Awards for 2018   [Aug-28-18 02:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ BMO's 7 Reasons To Like Central Garden & Pet   [Aug-13-18 03:01PM  Benzinga]
▶ Central Garden: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ 10 Blue-Chip Consumer Stocks to Buy   [Jun-15-18 01:35PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Central Garden: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-07-18 04:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ Nylabone® Launches New Natural Dog Treats   [Apr-11-18 02:06PM  Business Wire]
▶ Central Garden & Pet Announces New Chairman of the Board   [Mar-19-18 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Central Garden & Pet Acquires Bell Nursery   [Mar-14-18 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Central Garden tops Street 1Q forecasts   [Feb-07-18 04:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ Company Profile for Central Garden & Pet Company   [Jan-05-18 10:20AM  Business Wire]

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